【文/观察者网 阮佳琪】 大豆既是食用油和动物饲料的关键原料，也是中美贸易关系中的核心大宗商品，对于中国的战略重要程 度不言而喻。 据香港《南华早报》12日报道，高盛分析师团队本周发布的研究报告显示，随着中国加快推进粮食自给 自足进程，包括增强粮食供应链抵御贸易冲击的能力，未来十年中国大豆进口依赖度将从90%降至30% 以下。 这份报告指出，中国推行的大豆需求管理策略已在2021至2024年间减少了1500万吨的年消费量。这项自 2018年首轮中美贸易战期间启动的举措，"对于缓解中美及中拉贸易壁垒与不确定性起到了至关重要的 作用"。 新的报告修正了这一预估数据，"得益于耕作技术的进步，我们目前预估中国耕地缺口已收窄至8400亿 公顷，且已有明确路径规划表明，到2035年这一缺口将进一步缩窄至500万公顷。" 高盛分析师认为，未来中国或进一步削减大豆进口规模。这些举措可能是在向华盛顿方面作出相关承诺 之后实施的。 特朗普政府官员近日说明，中方已同意"本季"至少购买1200万吨美国大豆，并在未来三年内每年至少采 购2500万吨美国大豆。 美国大豆月度出口与对华出口。截图自美国普渡大学9月发表论文，数据来自美农业部 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street banks, including Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs, predict that the US dollar will continue to weaken as the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates next year, with further depreciation expected by 2026 due to policy easing in the US compared to stable or tightening policies in other countries [1] Group 1 - Strategists anticipate that the interest rate differential will encourage investors to shift funds to higher-yielding non-US markets [1] - Bloomberg consensus estimates indicate that the index measuring the value of the dollar is expected to decline by approximately 3% by the end of 2026 [1] - Institutions like Morgan Stanley believe there is still room for the market to price in larger rate cuts, which could lead to further dollar weakness [1]

格隆汇12月12日丨高盛预计2026年市场将持续走强，并将标普500指数的目标设定为7,600点。高盛首席 美国股票策略师Ben Snider表示，人工智能驱动的生产力将推高收益，预计标普500指数的每股收益 （EPS）将增长12%至305美元，其中六家主要科技公司将贡献近一半的增长。虽然大型科技公司仍是 主要驱动力，但Snider也预计该指数其他成分股的收益将有所改善。他指出，前方的风险包括美联储放 缓宽松步伐以及利润率面临压力，但他整体上仍保持积极的展望。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that Goldman Sachs predicts a significant increase in corporate earnings driven by the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and resilient economic growth in the U.S. [1][2] - Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 companies' earnings per share to jump by 12% next year and further grow by 10% in 2027, with a target for the S&P 500 index to reach around 7600 points, indicating about a 10% upside from current levels [1][2] - Major Wall Street firms, including Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and RBC Capital Markets, echo this optimistic outlook, forecasting over a 10% increase in U.S. stocks by 2026 [2] Group 2 - AI-driven productivity gains are beginning to translate into actual corporate profits, contributing approximately 0.4 percentage points to the expected 12% earnings growth next year and expanding to 1.5 percentage points for the 10% growth forecast in 2027 [3] - Large technology companies are expected to lead the earnings growth, with the largest firms in the S&P 500, including Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Broadcom, and Meta, projected to contribute about 46% of the index's profit growth by 2026 [3] - A Bloomberg survey indicates that global fund managers are betting on the continuation of this market rebound, driven by confidence in the economic outlook [3]

Core Viewpoint - Several stock splits may occur in 2026, which could create investment opportunities as companies often see a rise in share prices following a split announcement [1][2]. Group 1: Microsoft - Microsoft has the lowest stock price on the list at just under $500 per share and has not split its stock since 2003, making a split overdue [4]. - The company's stock price has risen due to its significant role in the artificial intelligence sector and its investment in OpenAI, which could further boost its stock if OpenAI goes public [5]. Group 2: MercadoLibre - MercadoLibre has the highest stock price on the list at about $2,000 per share and has never split its stock, raising skepticism about a potential split [7]. - The company has built a robust e-commerce network in Latin America and a payments infrastructure, showing strong growth potential despite a sluggish 2025 [8]. Group 3: Goldman Sachs - Goldman Sachs has a stock price around $850 and is a significant component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, accounting for about 11% of its total weighting [9]. - The company may face a decision on whether to split its stock to maintain its position in the index or to reduce its weight within it [11][12]. Group 4: Caterpillar - Caterpillar has a stock price of about $600 and is the second-largest component of the Dow Jones index, making up nearly 8% of its total weighting [13]. - Similar to Goldman Sachs, Caterpillar may need to consider a stock split to manage its significant influence on the index [13]. Group 5: Costco - Costco's stock is valued at about $900 per share, and it has not split its stock in 25 years, indicating it is overdue for a split [14]. - Although not a member of the Dow Jones index, a stock split could enhance its chances of inclusion, making it a strong candidate for a split in 2026 [16].

德意志银行、高盛集团等华尔街投行预测，随着美联储在明年延续降息路径，美元或将继续走低。多家机构分析指出，美国与其他主要经济体货 币政策的分化，预计将为美元带来持续的贬值压力。 据彭博报道，德银全球外汇研究主管George Saravelos和Tim Baker在最新展望报告中表示，美元当前被高估，预计明年将对主要货币走弱。高盛分 析师Kamakshya Trivedi团队也指出，市场正将非美经济体更为乐观的增长前景，逐步反映在相关货币的汇率定价中。当全球其他主要经济体增长 动能增强时，美元往往呈现相对贬值态势。 美元指数在今年上半年经历显著回调后，过去六个月逐步企稳盘整。展望2026年，超过六家大型投银的预测专家普遍认为，美元将对日元、欧元 及英镑等主要货币延续弱势。彭博社汇总的共识预测显示，到2026年底，美元指数将下跌约3%。 据，欧洲央行近期表态进一步强化了这一趋势。多位官员强调，其货币政策不会简单跟随美联储。法国央行行长维勒鲁瓦·德加豪明确指出，"欧 洲的货币政策立场已较美国更为宽松"，暗示欧央行更可能维持现有利率水平。欧洲央行执行委员会委员伊莎贝尔·施纳贝尔指出，欧洲央行的下 一步行动存在加息可能性 ...

来源：滚动播报 高盛集团策略师表示，随着人工智能的广泛应用和经济增长保持韧性，明年美国股市将因盈利增长创下 历史新高。由本・斯奈德带领的团队预计，标准普尔 500 指数成分股公司的每股收益明年将增长 12%，2027 年将增长 10%。其中，人工智能驱动的生产率提升将分别贡献约 0.4% 和 1.5%。"人工智能 的应用仍处于早期阶段，但到目前为止，大公司的进展比小公司更为显著，" 该策略师在报告中写 道。"我们预计，健康的名义营收增长、关税带来的拖累逐渐消退，以及指数中大型股持续的盈利强 劲，将共同推动这一增长。" ...

Core Viewpoint - Major Wall Street investment banks, including Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs, predict that the US dollar will resume its downward trend next year as the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates [1][5]. Group 1: Dollar Weakness Predictions - The dollar experienced its largest decline since the early 1970s in the first half of this year due to market turmoil caused by President Trump's trade war, but has stabilized over the past six months [1]. - Strategists expect the dollar to weaken again by 2026, driven by the Fed's continued implementation of loose monetary policy while other major central banks maintain or gradually increase interest rates [1][6]. - A consensus forecast compiled by Bloomberg predicts that a widely tracked dollar index will depreciate by approximately 3% by the end of 2026 [1]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The anticipated decline in the dollar is expected to have a chain reaction on the overall economy, leading to increased import costs, higher value of overseas profits for companies, and a boost in exports [6]. - The weakening dollar may be welcomed by the Trump administration, which has consistently complained about the US trade deficit [6]. Group 3: Emerging Markets and Currency Trends - The flow of funds into emerging markets for higher yields has led to the largest returns from carry trades since 2009, with JPMorgan and Bank of America optimistic about further appreciation of emerging market currencies [7]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs noted that as economic data from multiple countries improves, market expectations for currencies like the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar are being revised upward [7]. Group 4: Diverging Economic Outlooks - Some contrarian investors believe the dollar may appreciate against certain major currencies, citing the strong performance of the US economy, particularly driven by the AI boom [7]. - Citigroup and Standard Chartered analysts suggest that the growth in the US economy will attract significant investment inflows, potentially boosting the dollar's value [7]. Group 5: Federal Reserve's Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve has raised its economic growth forecast for 2026, indicating a potentially better-than-expected economic outlook, despite announcing a 25 basis point rate cut and plans for another cut next year [8]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell alleviated market concerns about a shift towards tightening monetary policy, emphasizing the focus on the weak labor market and inflation above target levels [8].

华尔街正流传一个令人不安的猜想：在经历多年辉煌涨幅后，美国股市未来十年可能基本持平。 "即便对于明年，历史数据也不容乐观：标普500指数在连续3年涨幅超15%后，年均回报率将比历史均 值低2.3个百分点。投资者可能需要国内生产总值（GDP）和每股收益（EPS）超预期，才能避免第七 个'失落的十年'，"美国银行在给客户的报告中写道。 阿波罗全球管理公司（Apollo）首席经济学家托尔斯滕·斯洛克（Torsten Sløk）也表示，他预计未来十 年标普500指数将相对持平。他周四表示，这一预测基于标普500指数当前的远期市盈率水平。 "标普500指数远期市盈率与后续十年年化回报率的历史关系表明，投资者应预期未来十年标普500指数 回报率为零，"斯洛克说。 周四，美股涨幅仍在持续。由于投资者担忧甲骨文（Oracle）财报而撤离科技股，转而推动标普500指 数（SPX）和道指（DJI）创下历史新高。 但越来越多预测人士认为，这场盛宴可能即将落幕，他们指出市场可能受两大因素拖累： 首先是估值高企。美股估值正处于历史高位。据全球市盈率（World PE Ratio）分析，标普500指数当前 市盈率约为27倍，高于5年均值 ...

高盛表示，博通第四财季业绩强劲、AI收入大增，但因未上调2026财年全年指引，短期或承压。该行仍坚持"买入"，认为其在定制芯片领域 地位稳固，AI业务增速被低估，预计中长期持续跑赢。订单积压达730亿美元，新客户与大额订单强化增长动能。 尽管博通未能如部分投资者预期那样上调2026财年的全年业绩指引，并在短期内可能面临股价回调压力，但高盛依然重申了对该公司 的"买入"评级。这家华尔街大行认为，博通在定制芯片领域的统治地位正在增强，其AI业务的基本面从未如此稳固。 博通公布了一份表现强劲的第四财季业绩，其营收录得180亿美元，超出市场预期的175亿美元。更为关键的是，公司给出的2026财 年第一季度营收指引达到191亿美元，同样显著高于分析师预期的183亿美元。这一增长主要得益于AI半导体收入的激增，该板块在 第四财季实现了74%的同比增长。 然而，市场对这份财报的反应可能夹杂着失望情绪。高盛分析师James Schneider团队在最新发布的研报中指出，尽管业绩强劲且第 一季度展望乐观，但管理层并未更新或上调其此前发布的2026财年全年AI营收增长指引。考虑到投资者在财报发布前已持乐观看涨的 仓位，且AI业务 ...