来源：智通财经 高盛还预计，美联储2026年再降息两次，分别在3月和6月，最终将联邦基金利率降至3.00%–3.25%的区间。 该行的基准观点是，美联储将越来越相信，通胀放缓的趋势将持续下去，货币政策无需继续维持在明显具有限制性的水平。 高盛分析师表示，美联储短期内可能会保持谨慎的基调，但核心物价和薪资增长的轨迹表明，明年的政策立场可能会逐步向中性水平过渡。 此外，高盛指出，自美联储启动降息周期以来，金融环境已显著宽松，这有助于稳定企业借贷成本和家庭信贷流动。 该行预计，到2026年年中，美联储将完成新冠疫情时期调整以来的首次实质性宽松周期，届时利率将显著低于去年的峰值水平，但仍高于过去十年的 超宽松水平。 智通财经11月24日讯（编辑 卞纯）高盛最新预计，美联储将在12月的会议上实施连续第三次降息。该行认为，通胀放缓以及劳动力市场降温，为政 策制定者进一步放松货币政策提供了空间。 在高盛作出上述预测之际，由于美联储"三把手"、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯上周五发表了鸽派言论，称他认为"短期内仍有进一步降息的空间"，令12月 降息预期显著增强。 "明年的风险倾向于进行更多次降息，因为核心通胀方面的消息一直有利，而就业 ...

高盛首席中国股票策略师刘劲津日前表示， 人工智能（AI）引领的中国股票上涨远非泡沫，因为中国科技公司仍有空间通过专注于AI应用来提 升估值和盈利 。 刘劲津上周晚些时候在接受媒体采访中表示，与美国专注于算力的战略不同，中国将更多资金投向人工智能应用领域， 这让投资者 "有理由 相信，至少在短期内，中国AI的商业化变现能力可能更强" 。 "关键问题在于企业如何将AI相关产品的需求转化为实际收益，"他表示，"相对于美国，专注于应用的中国公司的估值仍要合理得 多。" 自中国初创公司DeepSeek推出高效低成本AI大模型，以及中国大型科技公司争相推出新AI工具以来，围绕中国崛起为AI超级大国的乐观情 绪持续高涨。 在刘劲津发表上述言论之际，人们对全球AI泡沫的担忧日益加剧，股价飙升与巨额投资热潮似乎已脱离基本面支撑。 "从估值角度来看，中国AI股的上涨远未形成泡沫。"刘劲津表示。 他指出，中国前十大科技公司总市值约为2.5万亿美元，而美国同类企业总市值高达25万亿美元，两者相差十倍。此外，美国科技巨头占标 普500指数总市值的比例约为40%，而中国科技巨头在主要指数中的市值占比仅为15%左右。 高盛还表示，在MSC ...

目前的日历安排上几乎没有任何因素能阻碍12月10日的降息决定。虽然下一份就业报告定于12月16日发布，CPI数据定于12月18日公布，但均在会议 之后。基于此，市场焦点已从"是否降息"转向了降息后的政策路径与经济着陆形态。 高盛最新报告判断美联储12月降息"呼之欲出"，鉴于下一份就业报告与CPI数据均在12月议息会议后公布，当前日程安排几乎不存在阻碍降息的因素。 报告预计明年3月和6月将各进行一次降息，这一预测基于核心PCE通胀已接近2%的政策目标，同时劳动力市场出现大学毕业生失业率攀升等隐忧，显示 经济下行风险正在加速累积。 尽管9月就业报告的发布遭遇延误，但这并未改变高盛对美联储货币政策路径的核心判断。高盛的基础预测显示， 在经历了12月的降息后，FOMC可能 会在2026年1月暂停行动，随后在3月和6月分别再进行两次降息。 首席经济学家Jan Hatzius在最新的报告中指出，美联储在12月9日至10日的议息会议上降息25个基点已成定局，且未来的宽松步伐将在2026年延续， 最终将联邦基金利率推低至3%-3.25%的终端水平。 这一预测得到了美联储内部关键人物立场的支撑。据高盛报告，纽约联储主席Will ...

Group 1: European Natural Gas Market - European natural gas futures have fallen below the €30/MWh mark, reaching their lowest point since May 2024, attributed to milder weather forecasts reducing heating demand and momentum towards peace talks between Ukraine, the US, and Russia [2][8] - The Dutch December TTF futures traded 3.1% lower at €30.20 per megawatt-hour [2] Group 2: Automotive Sector - Goldman Sachs has initiated coverage on several automotive manufacturers, issuing "Buy" ratings for Ferrari (RACE) with a target price of €391, BMW (BMW) with a target price of €112, and Mercedes-Benz Group Ag (MBG) [3][8] - Stellantis Nv (STLA) and Renault (RNO) received "Neutral" ratings with target prices of $10 and €36 respectively [3] Group 3: Technology Sector - Alphabet Inc (GOOGL, GOOG) has signed a multi-million dollar deal with NATO through Google Cloud to provide AI-enabled sovereign cloud capabilities, enhancing security and control over sensitive data [4][8] Group 4: Economic Indicators - Switzerland's Non-Farm Payrolls for Q3 2025 remained stable at 5.532 million, consistent with the previous quarter [5][8] - South Korea's Finance Ministry announced measures to improve pension fund returns and bolster foreign exchange market stability [5][8]

智通财经APP获悉，高盛首席中国股票策略师刘劲津表示，由中国人工智能(AI)热潮引领的股市上涨远 非泡沫，因为中国科技公司仍有空间通过专注于AI应用来提升估值和盈利。 刘劲津在一次访谈中表示，与美国聚焦算力的策略不同，中国将更多资本投入AI应用领域，这让投资 者"有理由相信，至少在短期内，中国AI的商业化变现能力可能更强"。他强调："关键问题在于企业如 何将AI相关产品的需求转化为实际收益。相较于美国，专注于应用领域的中国企业估值仍处于更合理 区间。" 此番言论发布之际，市场对全球AI泡沫的担忧日益加剧——股价飙升与巨额投资似乎已脱离基本面支 撑。而自初创企业DeepSeek推出高效低成本模型，以及科技巨头相继发布新一代AI工具以来，市场对 中国跻身AI强国的乐观情绪持续升温。 "从估值角度来看，中国AI股的上涨远未形成泡沫，"刘劲津指出，中国前十大科技企业总市值为2.5万 亿美元，而美国同类企业达25万亿美元，存在十倍差距。此外，美国科技巨头占标普500指数总市值的 比例约为40%，而中国科技巨头在主要指数中的市值占比仅为15%左右。 "对政治或地缘政治紧张局势敏感度较低的全球投资者，正日益愿意发掘中国市场 ...

Core Insights - The 2026 investment outlook emphasizes the importance of proactive decision-making and diversified portfolios due to a complex environment shaped by central bank policies, trade dynamics, fiscal risks, geopolitical shifts, and advancements in AI [1][8] Group 1: Economic and Market Conditions - The investment landscape for 2026 will be influenced by multiple factors, including central bank actions, a new trade order, fiscal risks, and geopolitical shifts [8][20] - In 2025, many G10 countries implemented interest rate cuts, while the US faced high effective tariff rates and a significant increase in global government debt, surpassing $100 trillion [1][21] - The US labor market's performance will be crucial for the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting decisions, with potential implications for inflation and economic growth [21][48] Group 2: Market Structure and Investment Opportunities - The US stock market is highly concentrated, with the top 10 companies accounting for nearly 40% of the S&P 500's market capitalization, driven by AI-related enthusiasm [2][26] - The credit market remains stable despite recent volatility, with overall corporate credit metrics indicating a mid-cycle environment rather than a late-cycle one [2][27] - Investment catalysts include a favorable environment for small-cap stocks and bonds due to anticipated rate cuts, as well as ongoing AI capital expenditures driving growth in sectors like semiconductors and software [2][31] Group 3: Private Market Dynamics - Private equity valuations are high, but quality assets remain attractive, with significant differences in returns based on investment timing [2][34] - The real estate market is expected to recover, with a divergence in performance between core assets and office properties [2][39] - Infrastructure investments are focusing on power grid upgrades and renewable energy, alongside opportunities in the circular economy and logistics transformation [2][38] Group 4: Portfolio Construction Strategies - Active ETFs and alpha-enhanced strategies are gaining traction, providing flexibility and transparency in portfolio management [3][38] - Tail-risk hedging and increased allocation to alternative assets are essential for enhancing portfolio resilience [3][38] Group 5: Thematic Trends and Future Outlook - The themes of economic security and power demand growth are expected to drive significant capital deployment in defense, energy, and infrastructure sectors [38][39] - AI capital expenditures are projected to continue exceeding expectations, with a broadening investment landscape as companies seek to leverage AI for competitive advantage [33][68] - The revival of global deal-making activity is anticipated to extend into 2026, with increased M&A activity and interest in private equity financing [34][37]

高盛表示，多项技术指标显示市场正处于危险区域，市场正呼吁美联储在12月降息。不过部分积极因素正在浮现，经济增长担忧可能被过度放大，流动 性状况有望改善......高盛许多客户将比特币等高贝塔资产视为风险偏好指标，认为如果比特币走势改善，年底反弹行情可能重启。 尽管标普500指数仅较历史高点回落数个百分点，但市场交易情绪已降至冰点。高盛首席交易员Brian Garrett表示，周五虽录得100个基点的反弹，却 被视为近年来"最失败"的反弹之一，交易台的氛围更像是市场跌停时的景象。 高盛多项技术指标显示市场正处于危险区域：流动性随波动率上升而枯竭，标普500的Gamma值已转为负值，防御性板块轮动加剧，系统性交易阈值 被突破，波动率指标闪现恐慌信号。市场正呼吁美联储在12月降息。 这种情绪分裂在数据上表现明显。纳斯达克100指数平均日交易区间接近3%，标普500指数超过2%，而标普500指数期权的日均交易量已达到3.5万亿 美元的历史新高，超过整个罗素2000指数的市场总值。 尽管如此，部分积极因素正在浮现。高盛指出，经济增长担忧可能被过度放大，流动性状况有望改善，AI生产力主题在客户对话中获得更多关注。许多 客 ...

尽管标普500指数仅较历史高点回落数个百分点，但市场交易情绪已降至冰点。高盛首席交易员Brian Garrett表 示，周五虽录得100个基点的反弹，却被视为近年来"最失败"的反弹之一，交易台的氛围更像是市场跌停时的景 象。 高盛多项技术指标显示市场正处于危险区域：流动性随波动率上升而枯竭，标普500的Gamma值已转为负值， 防御性板块轮动加剧，系统性交易阈值被突破，波动率指标闪现恐慌信号。市场正呼吁美联储在12月降息。 主经纪商账簿数据显示，总敞口已达高位，投资者继续沿着防御性板块链条调整配置，主题策略团队总结 称："客户一直处于买入罢工状态，关键主题的不确定性导致更加防御性的姿态，资金流向偏向AI板块抛售和动 量对冲。" 系统性抛压：刚刚开始 这种情绪分裂在数据上表现明显。纳斯达克100指数平均日交易区间接近3%，标普500指数超过2%，而标普500 指数期权的日均交易量已达到3.5万亿美元的历史新高，超过整个罗素2000指数的市场总值。 尽管如此，部分积极因素正在浮现。高盛指出，经济增长担忧可能被过度放大，流动性状况有望改善，AI生产 力主题在客户对话中获得更多关注。许多客户将比特币等高贝塔资产视为风 ...

Core Viewpoint - The world will continue to require significant amounts of crude oil longer than previously expected due to slower adoption of renewable energy sources and electric vehicles [1][2]. Energy Sector Outlook - Goldman Sachs projects daily oil consumption will rise from 103.5 million barrels per day in 2022 to 113 million by 2040, extending the timeline for reaching "peak oil" to 2040 from 2035 [2]. - The International Energy Agency has also adjusted its peak oil forecast to 2050, indicating a sustained demand for oil and natural gas as primary energy sources for the next 25 years [4]. Implications for Stocks - The extended demand for crude oil is expected to positively impact energy stocks, with Berkshire Hathaway positioned to benefit significantly due to its investments in oil and gas companies [3][6]. - Berkshire Hathaway holds substantial stakes in Occidental Petroleum and Chevron, valued at over $11 billion and nearly $19 billion respectively, which together represent about 10% of its publicly traded stock portfolio [9]. Berkshire Hathaway's Strategy - Berkshire Hathaway operates as a hybrid investment vehicle, combining elements of a mutual fund and private equity, while also benefiting from a reliable cash flow from its insurance operations [8]. - The company’s energy-related subsidiaries, including natural gas pipelines and other energy services, contribute over $1 billion annually to its operating income, enhancing its exposure to the energy sector without the volatility typically associated with direct investments [11][12]. Market Dynamics - Despite the expected growth in oil consumption, Goldman Sachs anticipates a decline in WTI crude prices to an average of $53 per barrel next year due to increased supply [15]. - The profitability of Berkshire's energy-related operations is less affected by fluctuations in oil prices, providing a stable investment avenue in the energy sector [16].

Core Viewpoint - The artificial intelligence-led stock rally in China is not a bubble, as technology firms have potential for valuation and earnings expansion through application focus [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - China's investment strategy emphasizes capital allocation towards AI applications, contrasting with the US focus on computing power, which may enhance short-term monetization capabilities for Chinese firms [2]. - The key consideration for investors is how companies will monetize the demand for AI-related products, with Chinese firms currently trading at more reasonable valuations compared to their US counterparts [2]. Group 2: Market Context - Concerns about a global AI bubble are rising due to rapidly increasing stock prices and investments that appear to outpace fundamental growth [3]. - The optimism surrounding China's emergence as an AI superpower has been fueled by innovations from start-ups like DeepSeek and new AI tools from major tech companies [3]. Group 3: Market Valuation - The top 10 tech companies in China have a combined market capitalization of US$2.5 trillion, significantly lower than the US tech companies' US$25 trillion, indicating a tenfold valuation difference [4]. - Chinese tech companies account for approximately 15% of the broader market capitalization, while their US counterparts represent about 40% of the S&P 500 [4]. Group 4: Growth Potential - The AI investment cycle in China is approximately 18 months behind that of the US, suggesting more room for growth and potential earnings and revenue increases [5]. - China's latest five-year plan highlights AI as a key focus area, having met 90% of its growth and development targets in previous plans [5]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The bullish market trend in China is expected to continue, although the pace of growth may moderate as the focus shifts from multiple expansions to earnings recovery [6].