金十数据5月5日讯，美国消费者和企业调查显示出一种焦虑的经济情绪，但基础数据尚未显示经济严重 放缓。高盛经济学家写道，美联储不太可能仅根据"软数据"就放松政策，尤其是因为在最近的过去，软 数据错误地预示着衰退即将来临，比如美联储在2022年抗击通胀期间。高盛的团队写道，美联储"在降 息之前，也希望看到劳动力市场和其他硬数据的证据"。这家投行和华尔街其他机构一样，相信美联储 将在周三的利率决议中保持利率不变。 高盛：美联储不太可能因为"软数据"疲弱就降息 ...

智通财经5月5日电，高盛重申对黄金的结构性看涨观点，基本预期年底金价为每盎司3700美元，到2026 年中期则达4000美元。 ...

华尔街最优秀的预测者一直在警告，关税可能引发经济衰退。然而，股市似乎对此"置若罔闻"。 一方面，高盛认为未来12个月内发生衰退的几率为45%，而Apollo Global Management的首席经济学家最近将其定为90%。 另一方面，标普500指数刚刚结束了自2004年以来最长的九天连涨——上涨约10%，抹去了上个月特朗普总统宣布关税后的大幅下跌。今年以来， 该指数仅下跌3.1%。债券收益率和美元已经企稳，表明投资者对未来的担忧情绪有限。 PGIM固定收益公司首席美国经济学家Tom Porcelli表示： "鉴于仍存在如此多的不确定性，股票市场在此反弹感觉就像他们在坟墓旁边吹口哨。" 消费者信心尚未出现改变，但潜在风险犹存 根据许多经济学家的说法，即使关税水平较低，持续的关税也可能通过美国经济产生连锁反应，从消费者支出到企业投资再到就业。 一项最新报告显示，经通胀调整后的家庭支出3月份飙升了0.7%，超过预期，这可能受到在关税生效前购买商品愿望的刺激。投资者对数据显示 第一季度经济萎缩的数据不以为然，称其被企业在关税生效前急于进口商品的情况所扭曲。Visa表示，截至4月21日，其信用卡消费并未显示出整 体 ...

原创 证券市场周刊 红刊财经2025年04月24日 文丨吴海珊 编辑丨林伟萍 今年以来特朗普的关税问题一直是搅动全球市场的最大扰动因素。不仅股市、大宗商品价格波动巨大，宏观经济增长预期也不得不随之变动。 关税问题将如何影响宏观经济，又如何影响行业发展？ 针对关税的种种问题，高盛首席中国经济学家闪辉和高盛中国股票策略分析师付思在4月11日的交流会上进行了解读，并就市场普遍关心的12 大问题给出了看法。 1、关税会对哪些行业产生较大影响？ 特朗普的关税政策已经影响到了全球经济的方方面面，对于中美贸易来说关税到底会影响到哪些行业呢？ 根据闪辉的研究，中国对美国出口产品多是机械设备等制造业产品，美国对中国出口多是大宗商品，例如大豆。 "简单来说，大宗商品是更同质性的，对供给市场依赖程度没有那么大，但美国进口的很多产品都是一些制造产品，短期内很难马上找到其他 的供应商。"闪辉说。 高盛宏观研究团队将美国从中国进口的2万多种产品进行了依赖度分类，结果显示，美国对中国进口依赖度超过70%的产品占到全部自中国进 口产品的36%。而中国从美国进口的产品中，依赖度超过70%只占中国从美国进口产品10%。 闪辉强调，鉴于中国对美出 ...

Financial Performance - Net earnings for Q1 2025 reached $4,738 million, a 14.7% increase from $4,132 million in Q1 2024[8] - Comprehensive income for the quarter was $5,371 million, compared to $3,733 million in the same period last year, reflecting a significant increase[8] - Revenues from contracts with clients represented approximately 45% of total non-interest revenues for the three months ended March 2025, compared to approximately 40% for the same period in 2024[38] - Net earnings for the three months ended March 2025 were $4,738 million, an increase of 14.7% compared to $4,132 million in March 2024[17] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets as of March 31, 2025, amounted to $1,766,181 million, up from $1,675,972 million at the end of 2024, indicating a growth of 5.4%[10] - Total liabilities increased to $1,641,881 million from $1,553,976 million, representing a rise of 5.6%[10] - Shareholders' equity rose to $124,300 million, compared to $121,996 million in December 2024, marking a 1.9% increase[10] - The company reported a net increase in loans to $210,142 million, up from $196,200 million at the end of 2024, reflecting a growth of 7.4%[10] Cash Flow and Investments - Net cash used for operating activities was $(37,230) million for March 2025, compared to $(28,038) million in March 2024, reflecting a significant increase in cash outflows[17] - The firm reported a net cash used for investing activities of $(22,747) million in March 2025, significantly higher than $(7,980) million in March 2024[17] - Total cash and cash equivalents at the end of March 2025 were $167,408 million, down from $209,385 million at the end of March 2024[17] - As of March 2025, total investments amounted to $115,579 million, an increase from $104,742 million as of December 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 10.4%[157] Stock and Equity Transactions - The company issued $1,900 million in preferred stock during the quarter, increasing the total preferred stock balance to $15,153 million[13] - The company repurchased $4,360 million worth of stock during the quarter, increasing the treasury stock balance to $112,843 million[13] Financial Assets and Liabilities - Total financial assets at fair value reached $954,892 million in March 2025, compared to $907,669 million in December 2024, indicating a growth of approximately 5.2%[76] - Total financial liabilities at fair value rose to $743,785 million in March 2025, compared to $699,661 million in December 2024, representing an increase of approximately 6.3%[76] - Total level 1 financial assets increased to $453,241 million as of March 2025, up from $436,298 million in December 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 2.2%[76] Level 3 Financial Instruments - The total amount of Level 3 assets for other financial instruments was $325 million, with a yield range of 4.2% to 31.1%[118] - The net unrealized losses for other liabilities classified as Level 3 were $59 million for the three months ended March 2025[192] - The ending balance of Level 3 loans was $658 million, down from $766 million in March 2024, reflecting a decrease of 14.2%[178] - The net realized gains on Level 3 loans for the three months ended March 2025 were $14 million, with no net unrealized gains or losses reported[181] Derivatives and Trading Instruments - The total gross fair value of derivatives as of March 2025 was $343,152 million, compared to $376,352 million in December 2024, reflecting a decrease of about 8.8%[135] - The net unrealized gains on level 3 derivatives for the three months ended March 2025 amounted to $15 million, while net unrealized gains were $612 million, primarily driven by interest rate, commodity, and equity derivatives[149][150] - The ending balance for equities net was $(1,203) million in March 2025, showing a decrease from $(1,106) million in December 2024, with net realized gains of $28 million[147] Regulatory and Compliance - The firm segregated cash for regulatory purposes amounting to $12.86 billion as of March 2025[52] - The firm recognizes incentive fees when it is probable that a significant reversal of such fees will not occur, generally when fees are no longer subject to market fluctuations[46] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and investing in new technologies to drive future growth[9] - Future net revenues associated with remaining performance obligations related to committed capital are expected to average less than $300 million annually through 2033[49]

高盛：预计欧佩克+将在明天宣布6月份连续第二个月增加41万桶/日的供应量 智通财经5月3日电，高盛表示，预计欧佩克+将在明天宣布6月份连续第二个月增加41万桶/日的供应 量。维持2025年剩余时间布伦特原油/WTI原油均价为63/59美元的预期，预计2026年分别为58/55美元。 ...

智通财经5月2日电，高盛预计美联储将在7月进行下一次降息，此前预测为6月，因非农就业数据强劲。 高盛预计美联储将在7月进行下一次降息 ...

Goldman Sachs has scrubbed mentions of “Black” and other references to race from its official website touting a diversity initiative amid an industrywide rollback of so-called DEI programs and increasing scrutiny from the Trump administration, according to a report.In 2021, the Wall Street giant launched the “One Million Black Women” program in which it pledged $10 billion in investments and $100 million in philanthropy specifically aimed at supporting black women.Goldman in recent weeks has revised promoti ...

金十整理：机构前瞻美国4月失业率[路透预期：+4.2%] 1. 凯投宏观：+4.1%；法兴银行：+4.1%；瑞银集团：+4.1%；澳新银行：+4.1%； 2. 法巴银行：+4.2%；美国银行：+4.2%；花旗集团：+4.2%；巴克莱银行：+4.2%； 3. 德商银行：+4.2%；大和资本：+4.2%；德卡银行：+4.2%；德意志银行：+4.2%； 4. 高盛集团：+4.2%；汇丰控股：+4.2%；荷兰国际：+4.2%；杰富瑞集团：+4.2%； 5. 摩根大通：+4.2%；瑞穗证券：+4.2%；穆迪分析：+4.2%；劳埃德银行：+4.2%； 6. 野村证券：+4.2%；潘森宏观：+4.2%；丰业银行：+4.2%；摩根士丹利：+4.2%； 7. 渣打银行：+4.2%；道明证券：+4.2%；富国银行：+4.2%；加拿大皇家：+4.3%。 ...

衰退风险被低估，传统对冲方式或失灵 虽然最新经济数据看似坚挺，商品需求表现良好，但高盛警告称未来12个月美国经济陷入衰退的概率高达45%。这一判断基于几个关键因素： 特朗普政策：政策不确定性指数已经从长期平均水平108激增至近期的高位。 本文作者：卜淑情 随着贸易战释放越来越多缓和信号，全球股市迎来一轮大反弹，标普500指数已经连涨八天。然而，高盛认为，特朗普政策仍存在巨大的不确定性，风险 资产大幅低估了美国经济衰退的风险，美债、美元等传统安全资产可能继续下跌，而黄金、石油看跌期权有望成为最佳避险工具。 追风交易台消息，高盛预测，经济衰退情境下，金价有可能在年底升至3880美元/盎司，布油或跌至53美元/桶。同样重要的是，"4D结构性趋势"——去美 元化、国防支出增加、能源去风险和铜矿投资不足——将长期利好黄金和铜。 企业信心受创：费城联储服务业和制造业调查以及纽约联储调查均显示，预期经济活动下滑的受访者比例已经接近历史高位。 其他：实际收入增长可能放缓，金融环境仍然紧张，美国生产中断风险犹存。 高盛估计，如果发生全面衰退，标普500指数可能跌至4,600点（较周四收盘价低17.9%），美国高收益信用利差将扩 ...