Market Overview - U.S. stock markets are experiencing a mixed session with major indexes showing slight pullbacks as investors assess inflation data and fourth-quarter earnings reports [1][2] - The S&P 500 Index is down less than 0.1%, the Nasdaq Composite Index has slipped 0.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen 0.6% [2] Economic Indicators - The December Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows a 2.7% year-over-year rise in headline inflation, matching expectations, while core inflation is at 2.6%, slightly below the projected 2.8% [4] - The 10-year Treasury yield has decreased to below 4.18% from 4.20% following the CPI data release, indicating potential room for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [4] Earnings Reports - JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported adjusted profits exceeding expectations but with slightly lower revenue, leading to a 2.5% decline in shares [7] - Delta Air Lines (DAL) shares fell nearly 6% pre-bell and 1.5% in recent trading after forecasting lower-than-expected profit growth for fiscal 2026, despite reporting operating revenue of $16.00 billion [7] - L3Harris Technologies (LHX) shares surged 3% to an all-time high following plans to spin off its Missile Solutions business, supported by a $1 billion government investment [8] Sector Movements - A sector rotation trend has been observed since late December 2025, with the Dow Jones and small-cap Russell 2000 outperforming AI-heavy mega-cap technology stocks [3] Corporate Developments - Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc. (SNCY) shares jumped 10.6% after announcing an acquisition agreement with Allegiant Travel (ALGT) valued at $18.89 per share [10] - Posco Holdings Inc. (PKX) shares rose 12% after raising $700 million in global bond markets and providing a positive earnings outlook for 2026 [11] Political Impact - President Trump's proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% has negatively impacted financial stocks, with Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) down 5%, and American Express Company (AXP) down 4.3% [9]

Key Takeaways GS is set to report Q4 and 2025 results on Jan. 15, with revenues expected at $14.54B and EPS at $11.69.GS to exit Apple Card partnership, adding 46 cents to Q4 EPS from reserve releases, offset by revenue cuts.GS may see stronger market-making, IB fees and NII, with IB revenues likely to rise 27% and NII up 39% y/y.The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) is scheduled to release fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings on Jan. 15, 2026, before the opening bell.GS’s first nine-month performance wa ...

Core Insights - Super Micro Computer Inc (NASDAQ: SMCI) has experienced significant volatility in the past 12 months, indicating a turbulent investment environment [1] - A Goldman Sachs analyst has issued a warning that the downside momentum for the company is expected to persist into 2026 [1] Company Summary - The company has shown fluctuations in its stock performance, which may affect investor sentiment and decision-making [1] - The forecast from Goldman Sachs suggests that investors should prepare for continued challenges ahead, particularly in the next few years [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its GDP growth forecasts for China, predicting 4.8% for 2026 and 4.7% for 2027, marking the largest upward revision since 2019, driven by a more optimistic outlook on exports [1][2][10]. Group 1: Export as Economic Engine - The optimism in GDP growth forecasts is primarily due to a more favorable outlook on exports, supported by three main pillars: a better-than-expected global macro environment, strong competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing, and improvements in the external trade environment [2][3][11]. - Goldman Sachs predicts a 2.6% growth rate for the U.S. economy in 2026, higher than the market consensus of 2.0%, indicating strong external demand for Chinese exports [2][10]. - The Chinese manufacturing sector is expected to enhance its global competitiveness through technological advancements and government support, which will drive export growth [3][11]. Group 2: Export vs. Domestic Demand - China's economy exhibits a "strong export, weak domestic demand" characteristic, which is likely to persist in the near term, as building domestic demand is a long-term and systematic challenge [4][12]. - The reliance on exports poses risks, as a downturn in global demand could significantly impact the domestic economy, highlighting the need for policy adjustments to boost domestic consumption [5][13]. Group 3: Manufacturing Resilience - High-end manufacturing is a key driver of China's export resilience, with machinery and electronic products accounting for 60.9% of total exports, showing an 8.8% year-on-year growth [6][14]. - The cost advantage of Chinese manufacturing, with prices 30% to 40% lower than in other countries, supports the continued growth of exports despite trade tensions [6][15]. Group 4: Currency Internationalization - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is expected to accelerate, driven by China's growing share in global GDP and trade, which is currently disproportionate to the RMB's role in the global currency system [8][18]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts a slight appreciation of the RMB against the USD, predicting a rate of 6.85 by the end of 2026, which would enhance the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets for foreign investors [7][19]. Group 5: Consumer Spending and Policy Measures - To stimulate consumer spending, policies should focus on providing financial support to low-income individuals, creating jobs, and increasing wages, as these measures directly enhance consumption capacity [21][23]. - The government is expected to play a significant role in boosting consumption through public service spending, which could lead to a more substantial impact on GDP in the coming years [21][24].

Group 1 - The latest inflation report indicates that the core CPI in the U.S. rose by 2.6% year-on-year, which is lower than expected, failing to change market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's pause on interest rate cuts [1][2][3] - The three major U.S. stock indices remained flat, with the S&P 500 hovering around 6,980 points, reflecting a temporary easing of price pressures that calmed investor sentiment [1][2] - The Federal Reserve has cut rates three times since September of the previous year, and the market predicts the next rate cut will not occur until mid-2026, with no cuts expected at the end of this month [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts from Principal Asset Management and eToro suggest that the lower-than-expected core CPI data is unlikely to alter the decision-making logic for the Federal Reserve's January meeting, given the low unemployment rate and higher-than-trend economic growth [3] - The inflation report, released after the government shutdown, provided much-needed macroeconomic information to the market, although its impact on stock investors is expected to be limited as attention shifts to the upcoming earnings season [3] - The earnings season for the banking sector has commenced, with major banks such as Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley set to report their earnings on Wednesday and Thursday [2][3]

来源：滚动播报 高盛资产管理多元资产解决方案全球联席首席投资官亚历山德拉·埃利桑多表示，今日公布的CPI数据是 一份值得欢迎的硬数据。尽管如此，随着市场日益关注美联储独立性的风险，通胀数据可能将从主要的 市场触发因素转变为背景约束因素。仍倾向于做多风险资产，避免追逐短期新闻热点，转而布局具有持 续性、可交易性的主题。 ...

Financial Reporting Schedule - Major financial institutions are set to report earnings starting with JPMorgan Chase & Co. on Tuesday morning, followed by Bank of America Corporation, Wells Fargo & Company, and Citigroup Inc. on Wednesday [1] - The reporting continues with Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and BlackRock Inc. on Thursday, maintaining the focus on financials [1] - The following Tuesday will see a significant number of reports, with 20 companies reporting, including Netflix Inc. after market close and various financial institutions throughout the day [1]

Group 1 - The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is expected to report excellent financial results, with strong activity in financial markets and a significant performance in its takeover business [1] - Goldman Sachs is considered undervalued, trading at 17 times earnings, which is lower than the average S&P 500 stock, despite being a major player in mergers and acquisitions and IPO issuances [2] - Following positive market sentiment, Goldman Sachs stock rallied nearly 4%, indicating strong investor interest and potential for further growth [2] Group 2 - The company is positioned to benefit from an anticipated increase in mergers and acquisitions and large equity offerings in the current year [2] - While Goldman Sachs shows potential as an investment, there are AI stocks that may offer greater upside potential with less downside risk [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the upcoming December CPI data is expected to show a significant rebound due to previous distortions caused by the U.S. government shutdown, with analysts predicting a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [1][3][5] - Analysts from various investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, suggest that the December CPI data may reflect a technical upward bias due to the previous month's artificially low price base, which was influenced by the government shutdown [3][4][5] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have decreased, with the probability of a rate cut in January nearly zero and a significant drop in the probabilities for April and June meetings [2][6] Group 2 - The December CPI data is seen as a critical indicator for assessing the impact of tariffs on inflation, with expectations that housing inflation may rebound, although the core CPI may still be underestimated due to statistical methods [4][6] - The market sentiment is leaning towards a bullish outlook, with the potential for a significant market reaction if the December CPI data deviates from expectations, particularly if it comes in lower than anticipated [7][8] - The analysis suggests that the Federal Reserve's easing cycle may experience phases of acceleration and deceleration, influenced by inflation trends and political pressures, with recommendations for asset allocation adjustments in response to these dynamics [8]

Goldman Sachs has forecasted that global equities will continue to rise in 2026, projecting an 11% return, including dividends, over the next 12 months. The rally will be supported by earnings growth and broad economic expansion. As traditional markets continue to climb, a critical question comes into focus: will digital assets move in step with equities, or will they follow a distinct trajectory of their own? Goldman Sachs Shares 2026 Forecast for Global Equities Goldman Sachs’ 2026 global equity outlo ...