2025.10. 16 本文字数：2245，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 不仅投行业绩斐然，资管巨头贝莱德的资产管理规模达到创纪录的13.5万亿美元，在第三季度吸纳 了2050亿美元的新客户资金，录得该机构有史以来表现最好的财季之一。 对前景表示担忧 尽管业绩强劲且好于预期，但银行股还是在当地时间15日出现下滑。特朗普上周五对贸易政策的最 新表态，导致美股一度创下4月来最差单日表现。而当投资者担心贸易局势拖累经济时，银行业通常 会受到打击。除了中美贸易局势紧张外，笼罩美国经济的其他风险包括美国政府停摆。美国财长贝森 特15日表示，政府停摆可能每天给美国经济造成高达150亿美元的损失。 美国经济数据一段时间以来开始释放互相矛盾的信号，就业市场降温，而通胀依然高企。联邦政府停 摆可能导致数以百万计的美国人领不到薪水，也意味着投资者将无法收到关于就业和物价的定期宏观 经济数据。而银行业通常被视为整体经济的晴雨表，因为它们能展现美国家庭和公司财务的诸多细 节，并帮助投资者观察美国消费者的储蓄和消费习惯等。 受交易业务和企业贷款业务活跃推动，高盛、摩根大通、花旗集团和富国银行本周均陆续公布了超预 期的 ...

美国财政部的一位高级官员当地时间周三晚间表示，已持续两周的联邦政府停摆每周基准下可能令美国经济损失高达150亿美元的经济产出，此举更正了此 前不久美国财政部长斯科特.贝森特(Scott Bessent)早些时候给出的错误说法——他此前称损失高达每天150亿美元。 联邦政府停摆开始切入"美国经济的肌肉" 贝森特在新闻发布会上表示，政府停摆已开始"切入"美国经济的"最强壮肌肉部分"。贝森特强调，流入美国经济的投资浪潮(包括对人工智能的巨额投资)是 可持续的，而且才刚刚开始，但联邦政府的停摆正日益成为这些巨额投资的阻碍。 "确实存在着被压抑的需求，但特朗普总统(Donald Trump)通过其政策路径释放了这一繁荣，"贝森特在华盛顿举行的国际货币基金组织与世界银行年会期间 接受采访时表示。 对于钟情于黄金的投资者们来说，美国政府停摆带来的巨大潜在损失，对于今年以来狂飙超60%跑赢MSCI全球股市基准指数且屡创历史新高的黄金价格来 说无疑是重大积极催化。 "每周损失150亿美元"这一字眼带来的停摆冲击加剧了对美国增长放缓与政策不确定性的担忧，市场随之强化降息押注、偏好避险资产，这几个传导链条都 倾向于支撑金价创新高的 ...

Core Insights - Foreign investment institutions are reassessing the Chinese market with unprecedented attention amid significant changes in global asset allocation [1][2] - The "American exceptionalism" investment logic is facing challenges, leading to a strategic shift towards other markets, particularly China [2][3] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to provide a clear blueprint for China's economic development, highlighting various investment opportunities [1][8] Group 1: Shift in Investment Paradigms - The decline of "American exceptionalism" is becoming a key narrative in the global asset management industry, as investors express concerns over high valuations and policy uncertainties in the U.S. [2][3] - Global investors are increasingly hedging against U.S. assets and considering reallocating funds to other markets, reflecting a strategic adjustment [2][3] Group 2: China's Market Resilience - China's capital markets have shown strong resilience following a policy shift in September 2024, leading to a significant rebound in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1][3] - The issuance of stocks and convertible bonds in Hong Kong increased from $23 billion in 2023 to $35 billion in 2024, and reached $76 billion in 2025, indicating a robust market environment [3] Group 3: Long-term Strategic Investments - Foreign investments in China are based on long-term strategic judgments rather than short-term speculation, with European investors maintaining confidence despite previous challenges [3][4] - The active participation of foreign institutions in China's IPO market reflects a renewed confidence in the long-term potential of Chinese assets [4] Group 4: Fundamental Changes in the Market - The current market rebound is viewed as a transition from a liquidity-driven bull market to one supported by fundamental changes, including improved corporate earnings [5][7] - Institutional reforms in China, such as stricter regulations and enhanced market norms, are seen as crucial for sustainable market development [5][7] Group 5: Investment Opportunities in the "14th Five-Year Plan" - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to outline four major investment tracks, including technology, supply chain security, globalization of Chinese enterprises, and consumption upgrades [8][9] - The plan emphasizes the importance of investing in AI and technology to maintain competitive advantages in the global market [8][9] Group 6: Globalization and Profitability of Chinese Enterprises - Chinese companies are achieving higher profit margins overseas, with gross margins 10%-15% higher than those domestically, indicating significant potential for returns [6][9] - The increasing recognition of Chinese brands in international markets reflects a growing trend of globalization among Chinese enterprises [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The global technology sector has led a bull market in global equities, but investors should exercise caution in stock selection due to inherent risks [1] Group 1 - Goldman Sachs' co-head in China, Fan Xiang, emphasized the importance of careful stock selection amidst the current tech stock frenzy [1] - The ongoing bull market driven by technology investments may reveal vulnerabilities once the market conditions change, likening it to "seeing who is swimming naked when the tide goes out" [1] - Investors are advised to avoid complacency and not assume they possess the same investment acumen as renowned investors like Warren Buffett [1]

Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - China is leveraging its dominance in the rare earth industry to reduce prices, impacting foreign competitors, as characterized by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent [1] - The Trump administration plans to implement industrial policy to establish price floors across various industries, which would act as a form of government price control [1] Group 2: Banking Sector Performance - Bank of America and Morgan Stanley reported exceptional second-quarter earnings that exceeded analyst expectations, joining other major U.S. banks like JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs in a strong performance driven by robust dealmaking and high stock market activity [2] Group 3: Market Trends and Economic Indicators - Despite ongoing trade tensions with China, U.S. equity markets showed resilience, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rising, and the Russell 2000 reaching a new record, indicating that the economy remains stable despite rising costs from tariffs [3] - The future performance of equities may hinge on upcoming earnings reports from major technology companies such as Tesla and Intel [4]

Core Viewpoint - Recent international copper prices have drawn attention, with LME copper futures nearing $11,000 per ton, indicating a potential new price floor and strategic value reassessment in the copper market [1][4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global copper supply is facing significant disruptions due to production issues at major mines, including the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which has declared "force majeure" and anticipates a 35% drop in output by 2026, equating to a loss of approximately 270,000 tons of copper [1][2] - Other mines, such as Escondida in Chile and Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo, are also experiencing operational challenges, further tightening global copper supply [2] - The International Copper Study Group has revised its global mine production growth forecast for this year down from 2.3% to 1.4% due to these supply constraints [4] Demand Drivers - There is a surge in demand for copper driven by several factors, including the rise of artificial intelligence leading to increased data center construction, rising defense spending, and the acceleration of global electrification [4] - Goldman Sachs has characterized copper as "the new oil," emphasizing its critical role in AI and energy security, with expectations of a 70% increase in global copper demand by 2050 [4] Strategic Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy also impacts copper prices; a weaker dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts enhance copper's investment appeal, leading to a shift of funds from bonds to physical commodities like copper [5] Short-term Price Outlook - The current market conditions suggest that copper prices are likely to rise in the short term due to supply shocks, especially as the market enters the traditional consumption peak season [6] - The supply tightness is expected to persist, making significant price declines unlikely unless an economic crisis occurs [6] Medium-term Price Challenges - For a substantial price rally to occur, demand must align with supply constraints; historical price surges have been linked to significant demand increases, which may not be replicated in the current environment [7] - While short-term price increases are anticipated, breaking through the high points of May 2024 will require stronger demand drivers [8]

Core Insights - The total M&A transaction value in mainland China reached $340.2 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 80.3% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 29.9% [2] - The number of announced transactions was 3,791, which is a 10.5% increase year-on-year and a 9.3% increase quarter-on-quarter [2] Cross-Border M&A - The total value of outbound M&A from mainland China was $18.1 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 29.6% [5] - Foreign acquisitions of mainland Chinese companies totaled $11.6 billion, a decrease of 28.2% compared to the previous year [5] - Domestic M&A transactions dominated with a scale of $300.5 billion, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 106.3% [5] Industry Distribution - The financial sector led the M&A market in mainland China with a market share of 25.7% and a total transaction value of $87.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 270.2% [8] - The energy and power sector held a market share of 17.5%, with a year-on-year growth of 193.4% [8] - The high-tech sector followed closely with a market share of 16.1% ($54.9 billion), experiencing a year-on-year increase of 108% [8] Financial Advisor Rankings - CICC ranked first among financial advisors with a market share of 16.1% (involved in transactions worth $54.8 billion) in the first three quarters of 2025 [11] - CITIC Securities held the second position with a market share of 15.1%, while Goldman Sachs ranked third with a market share of 12.2% [11] - In terms of transaction volume, CICC, ICBC, and CITIC Securities were the top three [11] Legal Advisor Rankings - The top three law firms by transaction value in the first three quarters of 2025 were Yingke Law Firm, King & Wood Mallesons, and JY Law Firm [13] - In terms of transaction volume, Fangda Partners, King & Wood Mallesons, and JunHe Law Firm led the rankings [13]

受交易业务和企业贷款业务活跃推动，高盛、摩根大通、花旗集团和富国银行本周均陆续公布了超预期 的第三季度收入和利润。但在近期私募信贷市场持续爆雷的情况下，部分大行CEO对美国经济和市场前 景表达了一些担忧。 超预期三季报 今年以来，屡创新高的美股推动对冲基金和其他机构增加交易和借款，助推了投行多项业务。虽然美国 总统特朗普的政策增加了市场波动性，但无论是美国散户还是机构投资者，出于对TACO交易的押注， 均未离场，反而选择逢低买入。同时，企业对人工智能（AI）的巨额投资，以及数据中心和其他基础 设施的建设，也引发企业融资活动激增，并购交易不断增加。 比如，今年见证了美国有史以来最大的一笔杠杆收购，即游戏开发商艺电（Electronic Arts）的私有 化，该交易由高盛担任顾问，摩根大通提供了高达200亿美元的巨额融资。而美国银行也预计将获得有 史以来单家银行披露的最高交易费，金额高达1.3亿美元。 整体来看，美国六大银行在过去三个月里总计盈利近410亿美元，较上年同期增长19%。在咨询费的推 动下，高盛第三财季的投行业务收入增长了42%，并有望在主要投行和市场部门创下有史以来最佳年度 业绩。摩根大通和花旗集团 ...

Core Viewpoint - Major U.S. banks, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, reported better-than-expected Q3 revenues and profits driven by active trading and corporate lending, despite concerns over the economic outlook due to recent turmoil in the private credit market [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The U.S. stock market's record highs this year have led hedge funds and other institutions to increase trading and borrowing, boosting various investment banking activities [3]. - The total profit of the six largest U.S. banks reached nearly $41 billion in the past three months, a 19% increase year-over-year [3]. - Goldman Sachs' investment banking revenue grew by 42% in Q3, while JPMorgan and Citigroup saw their investment banking fees rise by 16% and 17% respectively [3]. Group 2: Debt and Equity Markets - Debt capital market activities and corporate lending are surging, with Goldman Sachs' debt underwriting revenue increasing by 30% year-over-year [4]. - Initial public offerings (IPOs) are experiencing a resurgence, benefiting Wall Street investment banks, with Goldman Sachs' equity underwriting revenue up by 21% [4]. - Trading revenues in the post-pandemic era continue to set new highs, with JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs reporting year-over-year increases of 25% and 12% respectively [4]. Group 3: Economic Concerns - Despite strong performance, bank stocks declined due to concerns over trade policies and potential government shutdowns, which could cost the U.S. economy up to $15 billion daily [6]. - Economic data has been sending mixed signals, with a cooling job market and persistent inflation, raising concerns about the overall economic outlook [6]. - Executives from major banks expressed caution regarding geopolitical uncertainties and the potential impact of Federal Reserve policies on economic performance [7]. Group 4: Credit Market Risks - Recent bankruptcies in the automotive sector have raised alarms about underlying economic issues, with major banks exposed to these risks [8]. - JPMorgan's CEO warned that the current credit market conditions could indicate excessive speculation, suggesting that more similar situations may arise if the economy faces a downturn [8].

Core Viewpoint - Major Wall Street executives express concerns about the potential for an AI bubble, drawing parallels to the internet bubble, while also reporting record earnings driven by AI-related market excitement [3][4]. Group 1: Executive Warnings - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon suggests that the current situation resembles the internet bubble, warning of the risks associated with massive investments in AI infrastructure that could lead to a divide between successful and failing companies [3][4]. - Citigroup CFO Mark Mason highlights concerns about overvaluation in certain sectors, stating it is hard not to believe that some areas may be experiencing a bubble [4]. - Goldman Sachs COO John Waldron acknowledges the significant bets placed on AI to drive economic growth but cautions that it is too early to determine if an AI bubble exists [4]. Group 2: Record Earnings - Despite the warnings, major banks have reported record earnings for the quarter, with trading activity and revenues reaching new highs, partly attributed to the excitement surrounding AI [3][4]. - Goldman Sachs reported its highest quarterly revenue for the same period in its history, while Citigroup's five major business segments also achieved record revenues [3]. Group 3: AI Deployment and Future Returns - Major banks are actively deploying AI technologies, with Bank of America introducing a virtual financial assistant named Erica and JPMorgan Chase focusing on cost savings through AI [8]. - JPMorgan's co-CEO Troy Rohrbaugh indicates that while the bank is beginning to see some benefits from AI investments, significant returns will take time to materialize [9]. - Morgan Stanley CFO Sharon Yeshaya emphasizes that the potential applications of AI are vast, and the industry has only scratched the surface of what AI can achieve [9].