Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of U.S. involvement in Venezuela's oil industry, highlighting both short-term uncertainties and long-term implications for global oil prices due to potential recovery in Venezuelan oil production [1][3][5]. Short-term Supply Risks - The short-term influence of Venezuela on oil prices is ambiguous, depending on the evolution of U.S. sanctions. If the new government gains full sanction exemptions, production could increase by 400,000 barrels per day by the end of 2026, potentially lowering Brent crude prices to an average of $54 per barrel [5]. - Conversely, if the current government attempts to maintain control, leading to increased chaos or production interruptions, output could decrease by 400,000 barrels per day, raising Brent crude prices to $58 per barrel [5]. - Current production levels are estimated to be around 800,000 barrels per day, down from approximately 930,000 barrels per day last November due to U.S. actions affecting oil tanker operations [5]. Long-term Recovery Pressure on Oil Prices - Venezuela holds about one-fifth of the world's proven oil reserves and previously peaked at around 3 million barrels per day in the mid-2000s. If production can rebound to 2 million barrels per day by 2030, it could exert downward pressure on oil prices by approximately $4 per barrel [6]. - The potential increase in Venezuelan production, combined with unexpected output growth from Russia and the U.S., heightens the long-term risk of declining oil prices [6]. - The gradual recovery of heavy crude oil production in Venezuela, which is rich in diesel components, may offset some structural benefits to diesel margins [6]. Cautious Outlook on Recovery Speed - Despite ambitious rebuilding plans proposed by President Trump, the company remains cautious about the speed of recovery due to severely degraded infrastructure in Venezuela. Significant investment and time are required to enhance heavy oil recovery rates and improve oil upgrading facilities [7]. - Improvements in operational efficiency, stable electricity supply, and enhanced oil transportation infrastructure are essential for any substantial recovery [7]. - A meaningful recovery will necessitate strong incentives to attract large-scale upstream investments, indicating that production increases will likely be slow and localized [7].

据央视新闻报道，当地时间1月3日，美国总统特朗普宣布美军在委内瑞拉发动突袭行动，抓走委内瑞拉 总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗及其妻子，并称两人将赴纽约面临刑事指控；他同时宣称美国将"暂时运行"委内 瑞拉。 高盛集团最新表示，从短期来看，委内瑞拉局势对油价构成的影响尚不明确，但存在一定的温和风险， 具体取决于美国制裁政策如何演变；而从长期来看，委内瑞拉石油产量或将回升，而这最终可能对全球 原油价格构成压力。 委内瑞拉曾是石油生产大国，但过去二十年间，该国石油产量出现断崖式下滑。 在委内瑞拉总统马杜罗被捕后，美国总统特朗普3日表示，美国企业将投入数十亿美元来重建委内瑞拉 破败的能源基础设施，并开始为美国"创造收益"。他描绘了一幅雄心勃勃的愿景：利用美国的资金实力 和行业专长，使委内瑞拉石油产业重现昔日辉煌。 石油输出国组织(欧佩克)4日发表声明称，欧佩克和非欧佩克产油国中的8个主要产油国决定，维持2025 年11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂停增产。 本文转载自"智通财经"，智通财经编辑：徐文强。 据高盛称，委内瑞拉拥有全球最大的已探明石油储量，并在2000年代中期曾达到约300万桶/日的产量峰 值。去年 ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs indicates that the arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro may create long-term upward pressure on global oil prices due to potential increases in the country's oil production [1][2] Group 1: Oil Production and Market Impact - Venezuela, once a major oil producer, has seen a drastic decline in production over the past two decades, with current daily output at approximately 930,000 barrels as of November last year [2] - Goldman Sachs maintains its average price forecast for Brent and WTI crude oil at $56 and $52 per barrel, respectively, despite a slight decline in oil futures prices following the news [1] - The potential for a gradual recovery in Venezuelan oil production is hindered by aging infrastructure and the need for significant investment incentives [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The U.S. has implemented partial blockades on tankers docking in Venezuela, leading to filled local storage tanks prior to Maduro's arrest [3] - Following Maduro's arrest, U.S. President Trump announced plans for American companies to invest billions in rebuilding Venezuela's energy infrastructure, aiming to restore the country's oil industry to its former glory [1]

Core Viewpoint - The short-term oil supply outlook in Venezuela is uncertain due to recent political changes, but Goldman Sachs believes that a potential long-term recovery in the country's oil production could exert significant downward pressure on global oil prices [1]. Short-term Supply Risks - Goldman Sachs indicates that the impact of Venezuela on oil prices in the short term is ambiguous, depending on the evolution of U.S. sanctions policy [4]. - If the new government receives full sanction waivers with U.S. support, production could increase by 400,000 barrels per day by the end of 2026, potentially lowering the average Brent crude price to $54 per barrel [4]. - Conversely, if the Maduro administration attempts to maintain control leading to increased chaos, or if production interruptions continue due to storage limitations, production could decrease by 400,000 barrels per day, raising the Brent crude price to $58 per barrel [4]. - Current production is estimated to be around 900,000 barrels per day, down from approximately 930,000 barrels per day last November, with recent disruptions possibly reducing it to about 800,000 barrels per day [4]. Long-term Recovery Pressure on Oil Prices - Goldman Sachs notes that Venezuela holds about one-fifth of the world's proven oil reserves and previously peaked at around 3 million barrels per day in the mid-2000s [5]. - If Venezuela's oil production can rebound to 2 million barrels per day by 2030, it could create a downward pressure of $4 per barrel on oil prices, which are projected to be $80 per barrel [5]. - The potential increase in production, combined with unexpected output from Russia and the U.S., heightens the long-term downside risk for oil price forecasts [5]. - The gradual recovery of Venezuela's heavy crude oil production, rich in diesel components, may offset some structural benefits facing diesel margins [5]. - Despite ambitious rebuilding plans proposed by the Trump administration, Goldman Sachs remains cautious about the speed of recovery due to severely degraded infrastructure and the need for significant investment and time to improve heavy oil recovery rates [5][6].

高盛分析师指出，最直接的原因是投资者不再相信公司的说辞。他们发现，近期宣布裁员的公司"今年 在资本支出、债务和利息费用增速上均高于同行业可比公司，而利润增速却更低"。这意味着裁员"可能 实际上源于更令人担忧的原因，例如为抵消利息成本上升和盈利能力下降而不得不削减开支"。 图片来源：Getty Images 以往裁员大致分为两类：一类受投资者欢迎，另一类则遭市场冷遇。前者通常伴随某种"战略性重组"宣 布，往往能推动股价上涨；而若裁员是因销售下滑或成本上升所致，投资者便会抛售股票。 但近期，高盛（Goldman Sachs）分析师注意到一个新变化。 "通过将近期裁员公告与上市公司财报及股市数据关联分析，我们发现近期裁员公告的增加主要来自那 些将裁员归因于良性因素的公司，例如由自动化和技术进步推动的重组。"然而，这些公司的股价不涨 反跌，平均跌幅达2%。尤其以重组为由裁员的公司，股价受到的打击更为严重。正如分析师在报告中 所写："这表明，尽管公司给出了看似合理的裁员理由，股市仍将近期裁员公告视作这些公司前景趋弱 的负面信号。" 这一趋势值得持续关注。高盛预计，裁员人数可能"进一步上升"，依据是在近期财报季交流中听到 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the stock market in 2026, with a global economic growth forecast of 2.8%, higher than the market consensus of 2.5% [1][2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the macroeconomic environment in 2026 will remain favorable for the stock market, with strong growth expected across all regions. The U.S. economy is projected to grow at 2.6%, surpassing the consensus of 2.0%, driven by reduced tariff drag, tax cuts, and a loose financial environment [1][2]. - The report highlights the importance of companies leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance productivity, indicating that firms integrating AI into their operations are likely to see improved profit margins and cost reductions [5][9]. - The report discusses the ongoing "K-shaped economy," where low-income consumers continue to face challenges, while high-income groups experience significant wealth growth. This disparity is expected to persist into 2026, affecting consumer spending patterns [9][12]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth Forecast - Global economic growth is projected at 2.8% for 2026, with the U.S. leading at 2.6% [1][2]. - Various regions, including emerging markets like China and India, are also expected to show robust growth, with China at 4.9% and India at 7.0% [2]. Investment Themes - Focus on companies utilizing AI to boost productivity, with a specific index (GSXUPROD) tracking non-tech firms that have integrated AI into their workflows [5][9]. - The report suggests a strategy of shorting low-income non-essential consumer goods companies due to their underperformance amid economic pressures faced by low-income consumers [9][12]. AI Investment Strategy - The report categorizes AI investments into "high-profit AI" and "vulnerable AI," aiming to differentiate between robust and weak assets based on financial health and cash flow resilience [14][12].

31 December 2025 | 12:51PM EST Economics Research GLOBAL ECONOMICS ANALYST Top 10 Charts of 2025 Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Joseph Briggs +1(212)902-2163 | joseph.briggs@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Sarah Dong +1(212)357-9741 | sarah.dong@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Megan Peters +44(20)7051-2058 | megan.l.peters@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC ce ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs (GS.US) has been selected as a key asset in the "Global Vision" top ten core assets for 2026, representing the financial industry due to its strategic focus and strong market position [1][2]. Industry Environment - The global investment banking industry is entering a recovery phase in 2024 after adjustments in 2022-2023, with a significant increase in M&A activity expected in 2025, projected to reach $4.5 trillion, a nearly 50% year-on-year growth [1][2]. - The easing monetary policy will lower corporate financing costs, stimulating M&A and LBO demand, benefiting Goldman Sachs as the leading M&A advisor [2][3]. Business Breakdown - **Global Banking and Markets (GBM)**: Expected to benefit from the recovery in global M&A and IPO markets, with revenue growth projected at 20%-30% for M&A advisory and over 25% for overall investment banking fees [4][6]. - **Asset and Wealth Management (AWM)**: Anticipated to achieve both scale expansion and revenue improvement, with assets under management expected to exceed $4 trillion and revenue growth of 10%-15% [6][14]. - **Platform Solutions**: This segment is relatively small, focusing on core areas like transaction banking, with stable revenue expected [10][11]. Core Advantages - The strategic focus on high-margin core businesses has optimized Goldman Sachs' business structure, reducing reliance on volatile retail banking and enhancing profitability [12][14]. - The GBM segment remains a strong revenue contributor, with significant growth in M&A advisory and fixed income, currency, and commodities (FICC) businesses [12][14]. - AWM is positioned as a long-term growth engine, benefiting from the increasing wealth of high-net-worth individuals and providing stable cash flow [14]. Financial and Valuation - Financial performance has improved, with revenue and net profit growth rates exceeding industry averages, and ROE reaching 14.6% [15][17]. - Valuation is expected to recover as the market recognizes the shift towards a more stable and high-quality growth model, with a potential 15%-25% upside in valuation [17].

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs has released its annual investment outlook for 2026, highlighting ten key themes to watch in the coming year, with a focus on China's unexpected growth driven by technological advancements and sustained export advantages [1][3] Group 1: Key Investment Themes - The core investment themes for 2026 include technological innovation, breakthroughs in pharmaceuticals, reshaping of trade patterns, and adjustments in energy structures [3] - "The Rise of China" is one of the ten themes, emphasizing the impact of China's economic recovery on global trade and technology [3] - Other notable themes include the deepening of AI infrastructure, shifts in pharmaceutical research focus, blurring lines between physical and online commerce, productivity-driven profit growth, the rise of alternative investments, militarization trends, humanoid robots and autonomous vehicles, nuclear energy revival, and the emergence of rare earth elements [3][4] Group 2: Specific Sector Insights - In the AI sector, there is a significant transformation in investment focus towards data centers, targeting companies that can support global computing power regardless of chip type [3] - In pharmaceuticals, the GLP-1 weight loss drug market is diversifying, with investment attention shifting to new weight loss products expected to gain approval next year, and a transition in biopharmaceutical focus from obesity drugs to a "cardiology revival" [3] - The report highlights advancements in manufacturing capabilities for hardware that can simulate daily activities, assessing the potential profit growth for leading industrial tech companies like Tesla due to humanoid robot development [4] - China is noted to be leading in the autonomous vehicle sector, with projections indicating that the market for self-driving taxis in China could reach $47 billion by 2035 [4] Group 3: Policy and Market Sentiment - The report emphasizes that policy direction will be a significant market theme as 2026 approaches, with potential impacts from Federal Reserve policies and Supreme Court rulings on tariffs shaping market sentiment [4]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' head of global hedge fund business, Pasquariello, describes the performance of the US stock index in 2025 as "very good," but emphasizes that investors on the front lines will face a high-pressure and volatile journey [1] Group 1 - The outlook for 2026 is characterized as unlikely to be a calm year, with expectations of increased market volatility [1] - Despite a baseline scenario leaning towards positive returns, the environment of high valuations, technological changes, and massive AI investments will contribute to a "wilder" market [1] - The reliance on tactical adjustments and risk management by investors is expected to significantly increase, as simple buy-and-hold strategies may face challenges [1]