Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the financial industry, highlighting that while AI has the potential to automate many jobs, the current wave of layoffs in banks is more a result of over-hiring during the pandemic and economic uncertainty rather than AI itself [1][2]. Group 1: AI and Job Market Dynamics - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, indicated that AI could significantly affect job categories, similar to past technological revolutions [1]. - A report from Citigroup found that 54% of financial jobs have a high potential for automation, the highest among all industries [1]. - Experts suggest that the layoffs in the banking sector are largely a distraction from other economic issues, such as weak consumer demand and past hiring mistakes [2]. Group 2: Employment Trends in Banking - Despite headlines about layoffs, the overall employment in the banking and financial sector remains stable, with some banks even increasing their workforce [4]. - For instance, Bank of America reduced its workforce by only 4 employees, while JPMorgan added 2,000 employees [4]. - Experts predict that banks will delay hiring and rely on AI to improve efficiency until they are forced to increase labor costs [4]. Group 3: MBA Graduates and Job Opportunities - Top MBA programs still show strong employment rates, with 92% of Columbia Business School graduates and 86% of NYU Stern graduates securing jobs [5]. - However, there is a noted decline in job placement rates among elite MBA programs since 2021, indicating a tightening job market [6]. Group 4: Job Security and Risks in Finance - Not all financial jobs are equally vulnerable to automation; roles requiring critical thinking and low tolerance for error, such as consulting and compliance, are less likely to be automated [7]. - Conversely, positions in accounting and marketing are expected to face significant challenges due to AI advancements [8]. - Approximately 76% of banks anticipate increasing their technology staff due to AI, while 73% of bank employees' tasks may be affected by generative AI [7].

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan maintained a "Buy" rating following its Q3 2025 fiscal quarter report, indicating confidence in the stock's performance and potential for growth [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - JPMorgan reported its most recent fiscal quarter results, which prompted analysts to reassess their investment coverage on the stock [1]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - Daniel Sereda, a chief investment analyst, emphasizes the importance of filtering vast amounts of information to identify critical investment ideas [1]. - The investing group Beyond the Wall Investing provides access to information prioritized by institutional market participants, enhancing the analysis process [1].

Group 1 - The article highlights that the decline in oil prices and the cooling inflation in the U.S. economy are creating a favorable environment for cyclical stocks, with expectations for strong performance from companies like JPMorgan Chase, Caterpillar, Gap, and Dollar Tree by 2026 [1] - Analysts predict that sectors such as financials, industrials, and discretionary consumer goods will lead the U.S. stock market in the upcoming year, with an average GDP growth forecast of 2% for 2024 [1] - The market is showing signs of a style shift, with cyclical stocks outperforming defensive stocks, as evidenced by a 9.3% increase in cyclical stock performance compared to a 4.2% rise in the S&P 500 index over the past month [1][4] Group 2 - The influx of capital into non-tech cyclical stocks reflects market optimism about economic expansion, with a projected 2.5% growth in U.S. GDP for 2026, driven by a 4.1% increase in retail sales and a decrease in the core PCE price index to 2.4% [4] - Analysts believe that the strong performance of cyclical stocks will be sustained over the long term, with strategies focusing on long positions in banks and retail stocks while shorting consumer staples [4] - The Dow Jones Transportation Average has risen by 10% in the past month, indicating a strengthening investment logic for cyclical stocks, with expectations for continued growth in the industrial and materials sectors [5] Group 3 - The acceleration of U.S. economic growth is expected to significantly benefit cyclical companies, as their earnings are closely tied to economic activity levels [6] - There are expectations for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, with GDP growth projections being revised upward from 1.8% to 2.3% [5]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down before the market opens, with Dow futures down 0.05%, S&P 500 futures down 0.04%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.03% [1] - European indices show mixed performance, with Germany's DAX up 0.07%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.02%, France's CAC40 down 0.22%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 down 0.13% [2] Economic Data and Predictions - The US GDP for Q3 is expected to show a growth rate of 3.3% annualized, down from 3.8% in Q2, influenced by rising living costs and recent government shutdowns [3] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the recent government shutdown could reduce Q4 GDP by 1.0% to 2.0%, with an expected loss of $7 billion to $14 billion that may not be recoverable [3] Corporate Developments - Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan stated that the surge in AI investments this year could significantly impact the US economy, projecting a growth rate of 2.4% for next year, up from about 2% in 2025 [4] - Oppenheimer analysts highlight the "Santa Claus Rally" from December 24 to January 5, with the S&P 500 historically averaging a 1.6% increase during this period [5] - Novo Nordisk's oral weight loss medication received FDA approval, giving the company a competitive edge in the obesity treatment market [7] - Amazon's Zoox is recalling 332 vehicles due to software issues in its autonomous driving system, raising safety concerns [8] - Larry Ellison is providing over $40 billion in personal guarantees for Warner Bros. acquisition, which may impact his wealth tied to Oracle [9] - JPMorgan is exploring cryptocurrency trading services for institutional clients, indicating a growing interest in digital assets [10] - ZIM Integrated Shipping Services is seeing a nearly 9% pre-market increase after receiving multiple acquisition proposals [10]

Core Insights - The article discusses influential figures in the banking industry for 2025, highlighting their actions and impacts on the sector, including regulatory changes and market dynamics. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Regulatory Changes - Michael Barr resigned as vice chair for supervision of the Federal Reserve but remains on the board, allowing him to critique the administration's policies without holding the supervisory role [5][6][7] - Michelle Bowman succeeded Barr as vice chair for supervision, initiating deregulatory measures and likely leading the implementation of the Basel III Endgame proposal and stablecoin regulations [18][15][17] - Travis Hill, as the new chair of the FDIC, aligns with the administration's priorities, focusing on transparency in crypto regulations and the upcoming Basel III capital proposal [49][53] Group 2: Mergers and Acquisitions - Mike Bell correctly predicted a record number of credit unions acquiring banks in 2024, but 2025 saw a slowdown in such acquisitions due to external economic factors [9][10][11] - Capital One's acquisition of Discover was approved under the Trump administration, making it the eighth-largest U.S. bank holding company [32][33] Group 3: Banking Performance and Strategy - TD Bank Group faced regulatory challenges and fines in 2025 but reported momentum across its business segments [20][21][22] - JPMorganChase expanded its digital asset strategy by moving its deposit token to a public blockchain, indicating a shift towards mainstream on-chain finance [35][36][37] - Bank of America experienced growth in lending and investment banking, with a focus on regulatory changes that favor large banks [70][71] Group 4: Notable Individuals and Their Impact - Jamie Dimon of JPMorganChase influenced market perceptions with his comments on economic resilience and potential risks in the private credit sector [28][29][30] - Jane Fraser, CEO of Citi, led efforts to simplify the bank's structure, resulting in a positive outlook for its stock and earnings [39][40][41] - Charlie Scharf of Wells Fargo celebrated the lifting of an asset cap, positioning the bank for growth and increased profitability [89][90][91] Group 5: Technological and Cybersecurity Developments - Google Cloud's cybersecurity division provided critical threat intelligence to banks, highlighting ongoing vulnerabilities in the sector [59][60] - The rise of AI and deepfake technology has raised concerns about misinformation and security risks within the banking industry [93][94]

编辑 |苏琦 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 美联储的政策动向一直是黄金市场的最重要风向标 文|《财经》特约撰稿人 金焱 发自华盛顿 经历前期短暂的震荡整理后，黄金市场再度走出强势单边行情，向历史高位发起新一轮冲击。12月22 日，国际金价率先发力，现货黄金盘中首次突破4400美元/盎司整数关口，刷新历史纪录，年内累计涨 幅进一步扩大。亚市早盘，现货黄金再度大幅攀升，金价刚刚触及4484.31美元/盎司，创下历史新高， 金价日内飙升逾40美元。黄金价格已是今年第50天刷新纪录。 过去一周，地缘政治紧张局势上升进一步放大了黄金的避险吸引力，尤其是在委内瑞拉：美国封锁油 轮，并加大对马杜罗（Nicolás Maduro）总统政府的施压力度。 2025年1月，黄金还在2614美元盎司左右。今年黄金年内涨幅接近70%，势将创下1979年以来的最大年 度涨幅。然而，在摩根大通分析师看来，金价未来一年仍有逾10%的上涨空间。 美元走弱、美国利率下行，以及经济和地缘政治不确定性，传统上都是推动金价上涨的积极因素，这些 因素都在本轮金价的上涨行情中发挥了作用。摩根大通指出，关税不确定 ...

Group 1: JPMorgan's Crypto Trading Exploration - JPMorgan is evaluating the potential for crypto trading services for institutional clients, indicating a significant shift in Wall Street's attitude towards digital assets [1][5] - The bank's markets team is assessing which crypto products, likely a mix of spot trading and derivatives for major coins like Bitcoin, would be viable [2][3] - There is a growing demand from institutional investors for direct, regulated access to crypto, with a preference for established banks over unregulated exchanges [3][4] Group 2: Regulatory Environment and Market Trends - Recent federal moves, including new laws on stablecoins and the appointment of crypto-friendly regulators, are facilitating banks' entry into the crypto space [4][7] - Other major financial institutions, such as Morgan Stanley and Charles Schwab, are also planning to offer crypto trading services, reflecting a broader trend of digital assets becoming mainstream for large institutions [6][8] Group 3: JPMorgan's Current Activities in Crypto - Although JPMorgan has not launched a full crypto trading desk, it is actively involved in blockchain projects and exploring tokenization for smoother settlements and payments [8][9] - The bank is considering using Bitcoin and Ethereum as collateral for financing products and has started offering tokenized investment vehicles, indicating a deeper institutional interest in crypto beyond mere trading [9]

Group 1 - JPMorgan Chase is considering offering cryptocurrency trading services to institutional clients, highlighting the increasing involvement of Wall Street banks in the digital asset space [1] - The bank is conducting a comprehensive evaluation of its market operations to explore potential services, which may include spot and derivatives trading [1] - Current efforts are in the preliminary exploration stage, with specific plans dependent on sufficient market demand for any particular product [1] Group 2 - If implemented, this initiative would mark a significant milestone in the broader institutional adoption of digital assets, a process that began during the Trump administration's commitment to making the U.S. a "crypto capital" [2] - Competitor Morgan Stanley plans to offer cryptocurrency trading services on its E*Trade platform in partnership with digital asset infrastructure provider Zerohash starting in the first half of 2026 [2] - JPMorgan has been active in the blockchain space, recently facilitating a short-term bond issuance for Galaxy Digital on the Solana blockchain [2] Group 3 - JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon has shown a notable shift in attitude towards cryptocurrencies, previously expressing concerns about their leverage, abuse, and association with terrorism, but now indicating a willingness to allow clients to purchase Bitcoin [2][3] - Dimon has stated that while he does not support cryptocurrency trading, he will defend clients' rights to buy Bitcoin and will include it in their financial statements [3] - The normalization of cryptocurrencies is a gradual process, but recent developments indicate a significant acceleration in this trend [3] Group 4 - The current global cryptocurrency market capitalization is approximately $3.1 trillion, with Bitcoin alone accounting for about $1.8 trillion of that total [3]

#年初买120克金饰现在买少50克#【#2026年金价还要涨涨涨吗#】国际金价延续连日来的涨势。受此带 动，以人民币计价的黄金价格再创新高。12月23日，有品牌足金饰品报价首次站上每克1400元上方。周 生生足金饰品标价1403元/克，较前一日1367元/克的价格上涨36元/克。老凤祥足金饰品标价1399元/ 克，较前一日1365元/克的价格上涨34元/克。 老庙黄金足金饰品标价1402元/克，较前一日1367元/克的 价格上涨35元/克。记者注意到，今年年初，1月5日，国内多家品牌黄金实物价格均超过810元/克，其 中周大福、周六福、周生生、六福珠宝、金至尊等金价为813元/克，老凤祥金价为811元/克。以10万元 计算，年初能买约123克金饰，如今只能买约71克。12月23日，伦敦现货黄金盘中一度接近每盎司4490 美元，突破10月底每盎司4381美元的高点。受此影响，上海黄金交易所现货黄金价格23日盘中来到每克 1014元，上海期货交易所上市的黄金期货主力合约一度涨至每克1018元，均创新高。今年以来，国际现 货黄金涨幅已超70%，以人民币计价的现货黄金价格累计上涨超64%。与此同时，受美联储降息、供应 ...

【导读】刘鸣镝：A股慢牛初长成，2026年看好四大主题 2025年12月19日，由中国基金报主办，摩根资产管理、慧博科技、安永支持的2025资本市场香港论坛成功举行。 论坛主题为"科技与资管赋能高质量发展"，为紫荆文化集团主办的"首届国际AI艺术节"系列活动之一，汇集约150位来自香港特区政府、高校、科技企 业、金融服务机构以及境内外资产管理机构的相关负责人、专业人士，共同探讨驱动资产管理和科技增长的新动能，剖析人工智能(AI)革命带来的新机 遇，激辩全球视野下的中国资产配置新机遇。 摩根大通中国内地及香港地区股票策略研究主管刘鸣镝在本次论坛上发表题为"慢牛初长成：亚洲视角下的中国股票展望"的主题演讲。刘鸣镝回顾了近年 中国股票市场表现，并发表了对2026年市场的核心思考和深度解读。其核心观点指出，中国股市已步入慢牛初期，企业业绩将成为2026年市场核心驱动因 素，多个板块回报空间可期。 回顾2025年，行业表现分化明显。正向回报行业中，材料类行业受益于"反内卷"政策趋势与去美元化背景下对贵金属的需求，以及新能源对银、铝、铜， 碳酸锂等资源需求支撑，实现翻倍收益；医疗健康行业贴合创新发展浪潮，回报率超60%； ...