Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase is significantly increasing its spending on technology and artificial intelligence to remain competitive against both traditional banks and fintech companies, with a focus on long-term growth rather than short-term expense targets [1][2][3]. Spending Strategy - JPMorgan plans to spend approximately $9.7 billion more in 2026 compared to 2025, reflecting a commitment to investing in technology and AI [2]. - The annual technology budget for JPMorgan is around $18 billion, indicating a substantial investment in tech initiatives [5]. Competitive Landscape - CEO Jamie Dimon emphasized that JPMorgan is not only competing with traditional Wall Street rivals but also with fintech companies like Stripe, SoFi, and Revolut, which he acknowledged as strong competitors [2]. - The bank's strategy includes developing an in-house AI platform, Proxy IQ, to replace external proxy advisors for shareholder voting, showcasing its commitment to leveraging technology for operational efficiency [4]. Future Outlook - Dimon sees significant opportunities in AI and believes that increased spending is essential for the bank's growth, despite concerns about the scale of expenditures [3]. - While AI spending is expected to increase, Dimon noted that it is not the primary driver of overall expenditure growth, but rather a component of a broader investment strategy aimed at enhancing efficiency and competitiveness [4].

Market Performance - On January 13, all three major US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.8%, nearly 400 points, the S&P 500 down 0.19%, and the Nasdaq down 0.1% [1] - The Dow Jones index closed at 49,191.99, down 398.21 points, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed at 23,709.87 and 6,963.74, down 24.03 and 13.53 points respectively [2] Technology Sector - Technology stocks showed mixed performance, with Intel rising over 7% to reach a nearly two-year high, and AMD increasing over 6%. However, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft all fell over 1% [2] - Nvidia's stock rose 0.47% following the news that the US has relaxed export regulations on its H200 chips to China [2] Banking Sector - Bank stocks experienced a broad decline, with the KBW Bank Index falling 1.3% and JPMorgan Chase dropping over 4%. The decline was attributed to lower-than-expected investment banking fees and warnings regarding potential risks from proposed credit card interest rate caps [4] - JPMorgan's investment banking revenue from underwriting and advisory services saw a decline, which could significantly impact the bank and its clients [4] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.86%, with many popular Chinese stocks declining. Notable drops included Brain Rebirth down over 26%, WeRide down over 10%, and Pinduoduo down over 5% [4] Commodity and Currency Markets - US Treasury yields fluctuated after the CPI report, with the 10-year yield stabilizing around 4.17%. The dollar strengthened, pushing the USD/JPY exchange rate above 159 [6] - Gold prices reached a historical high of $4,630 before slightly retreating, while silver futures rose 2.08% to $86.86 per ounce [6] Inflation and Economic Outlook - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-on-year as of December 2025, with the core CPI increasing by 2.6% [8] - Analysts predict that inflation may remain sticky around 3% in 2026, with potential upward pressure due to looser fiscal and monetary policies [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market closed lower, primarily driven by the financial sector, as investors reacted coldly to JPMorgan Chase's earnings report and expressed concerns over President Trump's proposed credit card interest rate cap, which could compress financial institutions' profit margins and impact consumer credit and the economy [2][4]. Financial Sector Performance - The financial sector led the decline among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, falling by 1.84%, with a cumulative drop of 2.6% for the week, marking the largest two-day decline since mid-November [3]. - The S&P Bank Subindex dropped by 2.4% on the same day [3]. JPMorgan Chase Earnings - JPMorgan Chase reported a 4.2% decline in its stock price, with adjusted revenue for Q4 2025 at $46.77 billion and net profit at $13 billion, translating to earnings per share of $4.63, exceeding market expectations due to strong performance in market trading [3]. - However, the investment banking segment underperformed, with Q4 2025 investment banking revenue at $2.35 billion, a 5% year-over-year decline, contrasting with prior expectations of low single-digit growth [3]. Market Reactions to Interest Rate Cap - Trump's proposal for a one-year 10% cap on credit card interest rates has negatively affected sentiment in financial stocks, with market participants already pricing in potential impacts despite the lack of detailed regulations [4][5]. - Major credit card companies, including Visa and Mastercard, saw declines of 4.5% and 4.3%, respectively, following JPMorgan's warning that the interest rate cap could erode bank profits and limit credit availability for lower credit score consumers, potentially affecting the economy [5]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-over-year in December, with core CPI at 2.6%, both unchanged from November and below market expectations [5]. - Following the CPI data release, U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield down by 2.4 basis points to 4.175% and the two-year yield down by 2.5 basis points to 3.522% [5]. Commodity Market - In the commodities market, international oil prices increased, with light crude oil futures for February delivery rising by $1.65 to $61.15 per barrel, a 2.77% increase [5].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market closed lower, primarily driven by the financial sector, as investors reacted coldly to JPMorgan Chase's earnings report and expressed concerns over President Trump's proposed credit card interest rate cap, which could compress financial institutions' profit margins and impact consumer credit and the economy [3][4]. Financial Sector Performance - The financial sector was the biggest loser among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, falling by 1.84%, with a cumulative decline of 2.6% for the week, marking the largest two-day drop since mid-November [4]. - The S&P Bank Subindex dropped by 2.4% on the same day [4]. JPMorgan Chase Earnings Report - JPMorgan Chase's stock fell by 4.2% after reporting Q4 2025 adjusted revenue of $46.77 billion and net profit of $13 billion, with earnings per share of $4.63, exceeding market expectations due to strong performance in market trading [5]. - However, the investment banking segment underperformed, with revenues of $2.35 billion, a year-on-year decline of 5%, contrasting with prior expectations of low single-digit growth [5]. - Bond underwriting fees unexpectedly fell by 2%, against an anticipated growth of 19% [5]. Market Reactions to Interest Rate Cap - Trump's call for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates, effective January 20, negatively affected financial stock sentiment, with major players like Visa and Mastercard seeing declines of 4.5% and 4.3%, respectively [6]. - JPMorgan's CEO warned that the interest rate cap could erode bank profits and potentially lead to reduced credit limits for lower credit score consumers, impacting both consumers and the economy [6]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December rose by 2.7% year-on-year, with core CPI also up by 2.6%, remaining stable compared to November and below market expectations [6]. - Following the CPI data release, U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield down by 2.4 basis points to 4.175% and the 2-year yield down by 2.5 basis points to 3.522% [6]. Commodity Market Insights - In the commodities market, international oil prices increased, with light crude oil futures for February delivery rising by $1.65 to $61.15 per barrel, a gain of 2.77% [6]. - Gold prices saw a slight decline, with spot gold down by 0.19% to $4,588.82 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures fell by 0.43% to $4,595 per ounce [7].

Group 1 - JPMorgan Chase reported a net income of $13.025 billion for Q4 2025, a decrease of 10% quarter-over-quarter and 7% year-over-year due to a $2.2 billion provision for credit losses related to the acquisition of the Apple co-branded credit card portfolio [2] - The bank set aside $4.655 billion for credit loss provisions in Q4 2025, representing a 37% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 77% increase year-over-year, with net charge-offs amounting to $2.5 billion, up $150 million year-over-year [2] - The total net sales revenue for JPMorgan Chase in Q4 2025 was $46.767 billion, a 1% decrease quarter-over-quarter but a 7% increase year-over-year, with net interest income and non-interest income both increasing by 7% to $25.1 billion and $21.7 billion respectively [2] Group 2 - CEO Jamie Dimon stated that the U.S. economy remains resilient despite a softening labor market, with continued consumer spending and overall corporate health, supported by current fiscal stimulus and relaxed regulations [2] - Dimon warned that the market may be underestimating potential risks, including complex geopolitical conditions, persistent inflation risks, and high asset prices, and noted that political interference with the Federal Reserve could lead to higher inflation and interest rates [3] - JPMorgan Chase expects to achieve approximately $103 billion in net interest income for FY 2026, an increase from $95.9 billion in FY 2025, with adjusted expenses projected at around $105 billion for FY 2026, up from $96 billion in FY 2025 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, has expressed concerns that Donald Trump's attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell could jeopardize the independence of the central bank, potentially leading to increased interest rates and inflation [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Investigations - Dimon has shown "enormous respect" for Powell, who is currently under a controversial criminal investigation by the US Department of Justice regarding alleged misuse of taxpayer funds related to a $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed's headquarters [2]. - Powell has condemned the investigation as retaliation for not aligning interest rate decisions with the preferences of the President [2]. Group 2: Central Bank Independence - Dimon emphasized the importance of Federal Reserve independence, stating that any actions undermining it could have adverse effects, including raising inflation expectations and increasing interest rates over time [3]. - A coalition of ten central bank governors, including those from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, has publicly supported Powell amid Trump's criticisms [4]. Group 3: JP Morgan's Financial Performance - JP Morgan reported a 7% decline in fourth-quarter profits, amounting to $13 billion, attributed to a one-off cost from acquiring a credit card partnership with Apple, previously held by Goldman Sachs [6]. - The announcement of this deal coincided with Trump's call for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates, which has negatively impacted shares of major credit card providers [6]. Group 4: Market Conditions and Risks - The credit card market is described as highly competitive, with potential regulatory caps posing risks not only to company profits but also to consumer access to credit, particularly affecting those in need [8]. - JP Morgan's CFO indicated that the company is preparing for various contingencies in light of these market dynamics [7].

Market Overview - On January 4, U.S. stock indices collectively declined, with financial stocks leading the drop due to concerns over Trump's proposed credit card interest rate cap [1][2] - The Dow Jones fell by 398.21 points (0.80%) to 49,191.99, the Nasdaq decreased by 24.03 points (0.10%) to 23,709.87, and the S&P 500 dropped by 13.56 points (0.19%) to 6,963.71 [3] - The financial sector within the S&P 500 fell by 1.84%, contributing significantly to the overall market decline [3] Financial Sector Impact - JPMorgan Chase executives, including CEO Jamie Dimon, warned that Trump's plan to cap credit card interest rates at 10% could severely impact consumers, reigniting a sell-off in financial stocks [1][2] - Visa and Mastercard experienced significant stock price declines as a result of the proposed credit card interest rate cap [2] - Analysts expect S&P 500 companies to report an 8.3% year-over-year increase in earnings per share for the last quarter of 2025, despite the current market pressures [2] Company Performance - JPMorgan Chase's stock fell by 4.23%, despite exceeding revenue and earnings expectations for Q4, due to challenges in its investment banking and Apple Card provisioning [4] - Delta Air Lines' stock dropped by 2.4% after reporting profits above market expectations but failing to meet revenue forecasts [4] - Boeing's stock rose by 2% as the company reported net orders of 1,173 aircraft in the previous year, surpassing European competitor Airbus for the first time since 2018 [4] Notable Stock Movements - Moderna's stock surged by 17.1%, becoming one of the best performers in the S&P 500, as the company projected higher revenues for 2025 than previously forecasted [5] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Intel rising over 7% to reach a near two-year high, while others like Tesla and Amazon saw declines [4][5] Upcoming Developments - Delta Air Lines announced an agreement to purchase 30 Boeing 787-10 wide-body aircraft, with an option for an additional 30, scheduled for delivery starting in 2031 [8] - Meta Platforms is in discussions to double the production capacity of its AI smart glasses to 20 million units by the end of 2026, in response to growing demand [6]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a decline on January 13, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.64% to 4138.76 points, ending a 17-day winning streak. The total trading volume reached a record high of 3.7 trillion yuan [1] - The U.S. President Trump announced the cancellation of all talks with Iranian officials, and the U.S. State Department urged citizens to leave Iran immediately. Iran's military claimed to have enhanced its capabilities in response to security threats [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is under criminal investigation, with former financial officials criticizing the Trump administration's actions. Global central bank leaders are drafting a statement in support of Powell [1] Group 2 - Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran, prompting a response from China's Foreign Ministry, which emphasized the need to maintain the stability of global supply chains for critical minerals [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting with representatives from key industries, emphasizing participation in industry rule-making and self-regulation to resist "involution" [4] - The Ministry of Civil Affairs and other departments introduced 14 measures to promote high-quality development in elderly care services, with the elderly population expected to reach 310 million by 2024 and over 400 million by 2035 [4] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.9% to 26848.47 points, with medical stocks performing well. Southbound funds recorded a net purchase of 1.296 billion Hong Kong dollars [6] - The ETF management scale of Huaxia Fund surpassed 1 trillion yuan, marking a milestone in the domestic ETF market [6] - Two "commercial aerospace" concept stocks received regulatory warnings for inaccurate and incomplete information disclosures [6] Group 4 - A survey indicated that over 70% of insurance investment officers are optimistic about the investment outlook for 2026, with a preference for increasing equity asset allocations [7] - As of January 13, 186 listed companies had been investigated by institutions, with a focus on sectors like brain-computer interfaces and commercial aerospace [7] - More than 140 companies in the A-share market released performance forecasts for 2025, with 63 companies expecting profit increases [7] Group 5 - Companies in the mining sector are expected to see significant profit growth in 2025 due to rising gold prices, with companies like Chifeng Jilong Gold and Zijin Mining forecasting substantial profit increases [8] - The passing of David Webb, a prominent activist investor in Hong Kong, has raised concerns about the impact on the market [8] - China Europe Fund announced the suspension of certain fund activities, indicating a tightening of investment conditions [8] Group 6 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology outlined a plan for the development of industrial internet platforms, aiming for over 450 influential platforms by 2028 [11] - The Ministry of Commerce announced the continuation of anti-dumping duties on imported solar-grade polysilicon from the U.S. and South Korea [11] - A new round of high-value medical consumables procurement is set to open bidding, involving 12 types of medical consumables [11] Group 7 - Jiangsu Province released an "Artificial Intelligence+" action plan, targeting a trillion-yuan industry scale by 2027 [12] - The used car market in China is projected to exceed 20 million transactions in 2025, with a notable increase in the share of electric vehicles [12] - Significant advancements have been made in the development of high-performance sodium-ion battery materials [12] Group 8 - The global hedge fund industry achieved a 12.6% return in 2025, marking the strongest annual performance since the 2009 financial crisis [20] - JPMorgan reported a fourth-quarter revenue of $45.798 billion, exceeding market expectations, despite a decline in investment banking performance [20]

格隆汇1月14日｜美国总统特朗普驳斥了摩根大通CEO戴蒙对司法部调查美联储一事的批评，称戴蒙认 为他在削弱央行独立性的说法是"错误的"。"我认为我正在做的事情没有问题，"特朗普表示，"而且美 联储里确实有一个糟糕的人。"周二稍早，戴蒙对司法部调查鲍威尔表示担忧。他说："我们认识的每一 个人都相信美联储的独立性。任何削弱这种独立性的做法可能都不是一个好主意。在我看来，这将产生 相反的后果——推高通胀预期，并可能随着时间推移抬高利率。"在被问及上述言论时，特朗普回应 称："我认为他错了。" 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.19% to 6,963.74, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.10% to 23,709.87, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 0.80% to 49,191.99, despite lower-than-expected December CPI data [1] Company Movements - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel (INTC) experienced gains due to positive analyst sentiment regarding AI-chip demand, while Salesforce (CRM) declined due to competitive pressures, and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) fell after disappointing earnings [2][5] - JPMorgan Chase's earnings were negatively impacted by its new role as the Apple Card issuer, and CEO Jamie Dimon expressed concerns about a proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates potentially harming the industry and consumer spending [4] Economic Indicators - December inflation data indicated a 0.3% increase in prices, with consumer prices rising 2.7% overall, and core CPI at 2.6%, slightly below expectations, reinforcing speculation that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged [3] Analyst Insights - Despite the positive momentum for AI companies like AMD and Intel, there are concerns about the sustainability of this rally, with economist Mohamed El-Erian suggesting that the AI market may be losing momentum [5]