Group 1 - Manner Coffee is considering an IPO in Hong Kong as early as 2026, with discussions still in the early stages [1][3] - The company aims to raise several hundred million dollars, with a potential valuation of up to $3 billion [3] - Manner Coffee was founded in 2015 in Shanghai and currently operates over 2,000 stores nationwide [3] Group 2 - Starbucks, a major competitor, opened its first store in China in 1999 and has become the fastest-growing market for the brand, with plans to expand from 8,000 to 20,000 stores [3] - Luckin Coffee, established in 2017, became the largest coffee chain in China with nearly 30,000 stores and over 400 million registered users [4] - Luckin Coffee is also pursuing a return to the US stock market but has no confirmed timeline for this process [4]

瑞幸2025Q3营收增 50.2%，净利降1.9%，外卖配送费用激增三倍 瑞幸方面解释，配送费用大幅增长主要受第三方外卖平台配送量激增推动，且外卖渠道前期较大的补贴力度，进一步带动了订单量与客户数的 爆发式增长。值得注意的是，其他成本控制表现稳健：材料成本增长40.6%至55.4亿元，店租金及其他运营成本增长35.5%至30.97亿元，两项 成本增速均低于营收增速，体现出规模效应带来的成本优化优势。 财报显示，瑞幸咖啡营收增长势头持续强劲，自营与合作门店业务均实现高速增长。其中，自营门店收入110.8亿元，同比增长47.7%，门店层 面营业利润19.41亿元，同比增长10.2%，同店销售增长率提升至14.4%；合作门店表现更为亮眼，收入达37.99亿元，同比增幅高达62.3%，成 为拉动整体营收增长的重要引擎。 针对外卖业务对盈利的影响，瑞幸CEO郭谨一在业绩会上明确表态，咖啡行业长期发展仍将以自提为核心，外卖仅是阶段性补充。他指出，外 卖履约成本与国内咖啡主流价格带不匹配，单杯经济模型并非最优解，且配送时长会影响即时消费体验。 产品结构上，鲜酿饮品作为核心支柱持续发力，本季度净收入106.33亿元，同比增长 ...

Core Viewpoint - Luckin Coffee is experiencing a significant growth in revenue while facing challenges in profitability, indicating a potential shift in its business model and growth strategy [1][5][12]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q3, Luckin Coffee reported a net revenue of 15.29 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 50.2%, continuing its trend of high growth [5]. - However, net profit decreased by 1.9% year-on-year to 1.28 billion RMB, marking a rare decline in profitability for the company [5]. - The GAAP operating profit was 1.777 billion RMB, up 12.9% year-on-year, but the operating profit margin fell from 15.5% to 11.6% [5]. Cost Structure - Total costs increased by 57% year-on-year, outpacing revenue growth, with delivery costs surging by 211.4%, significantly impacting profitability [7]. - Material costs rose by 40.6%, and rental and operational costs increased by 35.5% [7]. - The shift towards a higher reliance on delivery orders and rapid store expansion is leading to structural changes in the company's growth model [8]. User Growth and Market Position - Luckin Coffee added over 42 million new transaction customers in Q3, with an average monthly transaction customer count of 112 million, both reaching historical highs [7]. - The company remains the only one in the domestic coffee market capable of sustained explosive growth [8]. Expansion Strategy - As of the end of Q3 2025, Luckin had 29,214 stores globally, with 3,008 new stores opened in Q3, averaging 33 new stores per day [9]. - Self-operated store revenue grew by 47.7%, while same-store sales growth improved to 14.4% [9]. - The revenue from franchise stores increased by 62.3% to 3.799 billion RMB, indicating a strategic shift towards expanding the franchise model to reduce fixed cost pressures [10]. Future Challenges - The company faces challenges in maintaining profitability as it shifts from a focus on single-store efficiency to a reliance on franchise stores and delivery orders [10]. - The need for a sustainable growth model is emphasized, as the current rapid expansion may lead to increased operational complexity and cost management issues [10][12]. - To sustain growth without becoming passive, Luckin must enhance product quality, improve delivery efficiency, and develop differentiated capabilities beyond price competition [10].

Core Insights - Hello and Luckin Coffee have officially announced a partnership, allowing users to purchase Luckin beverages directly through the Hello app while riding from November 17 to November 30 [1] - This collaboration marks Hello's first foray into order-level cooperation, effectively linking travel scenarios with beverage consumption [1][2] - The partnership reflects a new trend in the local service industry, emphasizing the importance of scenario integration based on real user behavior [2] Group 1 - Users can scan to ride and simultaneously order drinks, with the option for delivery or in-store pickup [1] - First-time orders on the same day will receive a discount of 1.5 yuan, and Hello cardholders can redeem equivalent rewards [1] - The collaboration includes offline elements, such as customized bikes and exclusive gifts for users who check in on social platforms [1] Group 2 - The local service market is shifting from traffic acquisition to competition based on scenario integration capabilities [2] - Hello aims to deepen the integration of travel scenarios with lifestyle services, enhancing user value and commercial efficiency [2] - The partnership with Luckin Coffee validates Hello's ability to connect diverse consumer needs and the company looks forward to collaborating with more brands [2]

Core Viewpoint - Luckin Coffee's chairman, Lei Hui, is a heavy coffee consumer, averaging six to seven cups a day, and the company is accelerating its expansion in the U.S. market while denying involvement in the acquisition of Starbucks China shares [1] Group 1: Company Insights - Lei Hui, the chairman of Luckin Coffee, admits to being a heavy coffee user, consuming an estimated six to seven cups daily [1] - CEO Guo Jinyi stated that the company is accelerating its layout in the U.S. market, although specific details about the relisting have not been disclosed [1] Group 2: Market Activity - Lei Hui denied participation in the rumored acquisition of Starbucks China shares, despite the topic being popular [1] - There was no response from Lei Hui regarding the rumors about Dazhong Capital considering the acquisition of Costa Coffee [1]

国研网报告显示，现制咖啡赛道预计到2025年市场规模将接近1300亿元。市场仍在增长，但对于具体品 牌来说境遇各有不同。伴随着头部茶饮品牌加码咖啡线、低价连锁加速开店、外卖平台补贴大战此起彼 伏，作为国内连锁咖啡品牌第一的瑞幸，同样面临行业竞争压力。 今年的咖啡市场正在经历剧烈洗牌。 《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称"每经记者"）注意到，年初古茗等茶饮品牌低价布局下沉咖啡市场， 暑期库迪咖啡借外卖补贴获得喘息机会，10月底星巴克中国出售60%股权并推出"县城计划"加码下沉市 场，这些市场行为均加剧了咖啡市场的竞争态势。 图片来源：每经记者 张建 摄 11月17日晚间，瑞幸发布2025年第三季度财报，其报告期内营收同比增长50.2%至152.9亿元。值得一提 的是，虽然瑞幸的规模仍在快速增长，但这一财季却出现了"增收不增利"的情况。 首先，瑞幸仍以高速扩店、扩大规模为核心策略。从财报来看，第三季度，瑞幸的门店达到29214家， 月均交易用户破1.12亿，这种网络密度带来的覆盖与履约优势是其最重要的护城河，也是推动营收增长 的核心动力。 更值得关注的是，瑞幸联营门店所贡献的营收，在瑞幸的收入结构中愈发关键。 截至2 ...

经济观察网 近日，瑞幸咖啡（中国）有限公司凭借在优质运营、创新突破、服务升级、品牌影响力构 建以及企业社会责任履行等多领域的出色表现，成功入围《经济观察报》2025美好生活年度企业榜单。 此次评选深度聚焦高质量发展与消费升级的时代大势，旨在挖掘在新消费浪潮中积极践行高质量发展理 念、推动消费升级创新的企业，为行业树立标杆典范，进而推动新消费行业持续、健康、高质量发展。 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on China's Bubble & Brew Sector Industry Overview - The report initiates coverage of China's "bubble & brew" sector, highlighting a shift in consumer behavior where coffee and tea have become accessible daily commodities rather than elite status symbols. The current per capita consumption in China is 22 cups of coffee per year, significantly lower than over 300 cups in the US, Japan, and South Korea [2][26] - The top 8 companies are projected to dominate 25% of total outlets by 2025, up from 10% in 2022 [2] Key Growth Areas - Low-tier cities are expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% in store count from 2024 to 2028 [2] - The mid- to low-priced segments (under RMB 20) are anticipated to grow at a CAGR of approximately 20% [2] Company Ratings and Preferences - The report ranks companies based on their growth potential and market positioning: - **Top Picks**: Luckin Coffee (Overweight) and Guming (Overweight) - **Other Notable Mentions**: Mixue (Overweight), Nongfu (Overweight), Eastroc Beverage (Neutral), CR Beverage (Neutral), Chagee (Underweight) [2][26] Market Dynamics - Freshly made drinks (FMD) and soft drinks are expected to grow at CAGRs of 12% and 4% respectively from 2025 to 2030, while traditional alcoholic beverages like baijiu are projected to decline by 1.2% annually [5] - The aggressive expansion of coffee and tea houses is likely to impact the market share of juices, carbonates, and sweetened ready-to-drink teas, although the effect on sugar-free tea and bottled water will be minimal [5] Competitive Landscape - The report emphasizes the importance of scale, attractive pricing, supply chain efficiency, product innovation, and marketing in securing a competitive position in the market [5] - Luckin, Guming, and Mixue are expected to continue their rapid expansion, with net openings projected at 9,000, 4,800, and 3,300 stores respectively by 2026 [5] Catalysts to Watch 1. New product launches and entry into new categories (coffee, milk, finger food) [5] 2. Starbucks China aims to increase its store count to 20,000, intensifying competition in low-tier markets [5] 3. Luckin, Chagee, and Mixue's entry into the US market in 2025 [5] 4. Annual distributor reviews in November-December may lead to shifts in partnerships among beverage distributors [5] Valuation Insights - The sector experienced a significant correction, with share prices retreating 30%-60% from peak to trough, despite strong same-store sales growth (SSSG) [5] - Current valuations for Luckin, Guming, and Mixue are attractive, trading at 14-19x 2027E P/E with earnings CAGRs of 20-28% from 2024 to 2027 [5][37] Financial Metrics - The report provides detailed financial projections for key players, indicating robust revenue growth and profitability metrics for Luckin and Guming, with expected revenues of RMB 49 billion and RMB 12 billion respectively by 2025 [38] Conclusion - The bubble & brew sector in China presents significant growth opportunities, particularly in low-tier cities and affordable segments. Leading players like Luckin and Guming are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, supported by favorable market dynamics and consumer behavior shifts [2][5][37]

11月17日晚间，瑞幸咖啡披露的2025年第三季度财报，期内公司实现净营收152.9亿元，同比增长50.2%；净利润12.8亿元，同比下降1.9%。第三季度经调 整每股ADS净收益4.4元。 费用方面，三季度成本与费用合计135.106亿元，同比增长57.0%，增速超过营收。其中最引人注目的是配送费用的激增，本季度配送费用达28.892亿元， 较去年同期的9.277亿元暴涨211.4%。 瑞幸表示，这主要受第三方外卖平台配送量激增推动，而外卖渠道前期较大的补贴力度，也客观上助推了订单量与客户数的爆发式增长。 针对外卖业务的影响，瑞幸CEO郭谨一在业绩会上明确表示，咖啡行业长期发展仍将以自提为核心，外卖仅是阶段性补充。 在此前的厦门企业家日大会上，郭谨一曾表示，瑞幸正积极推动重回美国主板上市进程。这一表态引发市场关注。 数据显示，GAAP运营利润为17.77亿元，同比增长12.9%；营业利润率从15.5%降至11.6%；Non-GAAP运营利润为19.26亿元，同比增长15.2%；Non- GAAP运营利润率从去年同期的16.4%降至12.6%。 门店方面，截至今年三季度末，瑞幸门店总数增至29214家，其中自 ...

Core Insights - Luckin Coffee reported a total net revenue of 15.287 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50.2% [1] - The company achieved a GAAP operating profit of 1.777 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 11.6% [1] - The average monthly transacting customer count reached 112 million, marking a significant milestone [2] Revenue and Store Performance - Revenue from self-operated stores was 11.08 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 47.7% [1] - Same-store sales growth for self-operated stores improved to 14.4% [1] - The company opened 3,008 new stores in Q3, bringing the total number of global stores to 29,214 [1] Market Expansion - In the Chinese market, 2,979 new stores were added, resulting in a total of 29,096 stores, which includes 18,809 self-operated and 10,287 franchised stores [1] - Internationally, Luckin Coffee added 29 new stores, reaching a total of 118 stores, including 68 self-operated in Singapore, 5 in the U.S., and 45 franchised in Malaysia [1]