5月30日，有消费者下单时发现瑞幸咖啡迈入了"6块9"时代，"以前一般是9块9最低，今天发现6块9可以买店内多款饮品"。 记者也通过瑞幸小程序验证了广州一家瑞幸咖啡店的降价。不过，记者发现，本周已下单9.9元/杯的用户或不能参与此活动；在 美团平台，瑞幸部分饮品价格低至5.9元。 △瑞幸咖啡小程序截图 但本季度以来，外卖平台的价格战以奶茶、咖啡赛道为主阵地，导致瑞幸咖啡的主要竞品之一库迪咖啡，将单品的价格压到了 3.9元/杯与4.9元/杯。 据媒体报道，5月1日，淘宝闪购上线仅24小时，库迪咖啡销量快速上升至平台咖啡类目第一，较日常订单增长近10倍。此外， 截至5月7日，库迪咖啡在京东外卖平台的累计销量已突破4000万单。 对此，有观点认为瑞幸此次降价是为了应对库迪的低价竞争。 知名经济学者、工信部信息通信经济专家委员会委员盘和林在受访时表示，从咖啡单品看，瑞幸当年起家就是通过低价竞争， 后来创始人被踢出局之后创办了库迪咖啡，且库迪咖啡热衷于在瑞幸咖啡附近开店，所以双方的低价竞争早已不是秘密。 盘和林分析称，从饮料整个行业看，其实这还是受到蜜雪冰城等新茶饮的启发，比如蜜雪冰城的奶茶中，柠檬茶销量最好，也 最便 ...

Core Viewpoint - Luckin Coffee has initiated a significant price reduction on several beverages, dropping prices to 6.9 yuan, previously 9.9 yuan, in response to competitive pressure from Kudi, which has been aggressively pricing its products at 3.9 to 4.9 yuan [1][3]. Group 1: Price Reduction Strategy - The price cut by Luckin Coffee is primarily targeted at the takeaway market, where Kudi has seen a nearly tenfold increase in order volume, positioning itself as a leader in the coffee category [3]. - This price reduction is not merely a discount but a strategic "defensive battle" to retain customers who might switch to Kudi for lower prices [3]. - Luckin Coffee's supply chain has improved, allowing it to manage costs better, and the price cuts are focused on high-margin products like fruit teas and light milk teas, which can drive sales of other high-margin items [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The coffee and tea market is highly competitive, with Kudi expanding rapidly through a franchise model and low pricing, while other brands like Heytea and Nayuki are also entering the coffee space [4]. - The ongoing price war emphasizes the importance of cash flow and supply chain efficiency in the short term, while brand strength and product repeat purchase rates will be crucial in the long term [4]. - Investors should monitor key financial metrics post-price reduction, such as the increase in takeaway order volume, the sales proportion of high-margin products, and the potential impact on net profit margins [4][5]. Group 3: Long-term Considerations - The current market dynamics resemble a roller coaster, with frequent promotions and new product launches, but long-term investment should focus on the company's competitive advantages, such as store density and supply chain efficiency [5]. - As long as these foundational elements remain intact, the price war may only result in minor setbacks for Luckin Coffee [5].

Core Insights - The Chinese coffee market is experiencing rapid growth, with the industry size expected to double from 136.4 billion yuan in 2020 to 202.8 billion yuan in 2024 [4][8] - The rise in coffee consumption is driven by faster lifestyles and social media trends, with consumers increasingly seeking out aesthetically pleasing coffee experiences [4][8] - The market is characterized by diverse consumption scenarios, including chain coffee shops, independent cafes, fast food outlets, tea shops, convenience stores, and self-service coffee machines [8][10][12] Market Dynamics - Chain coffee brands dominate the market, accounting for over 60% of the total coffee shops in China, with the number of coffee shops expected to exceed 1 million by 2024 [10][15] - Major players like Luckin Coffee and Starbucks are expanding aggressively, leveraging digital marketing and loyalty programs to retain customers [10][17] - Independent and specialty coffee shops focus on unique experiences and high-quality offerings, but face challenges in scaling and maintaining profitability [10][25] Competitive Landscape - The competition in the coffee market is intense, with both international brands like Starbucks and local brands like Luckin Coffee vying for market share [15][17] - Luckin Coffee has positioned itself as a cost-effective option, while new entrants like Kudi Coffee are adopting aggressive expansion strategies [19][21] - The market is witnessing a high closure rate of coffee shops, with over 4.5 million stores disappearing in 2024, indicating a challenging environment for many brands [27] Future Trends - The coffee market is expected to continue evolving, with a focus on supply chain management and operational efficiency becoming critical for survival [28][29] - Downstream markets are emerging as new growth areas, but brands must adapt to different consumer preferences and behaviors in these regions [31] - Digitalization and multi-channel marketing are essential for brands to understand consumer needs and enhance the overall customer experience [33][35]

User Consumption Scenarios - The two classic consumption scenarios for milk tea are self-drinking and social drinking, with distinct user demands and decision-making processes [3][4][5] - In the self-drinking scenario, users make independent decisions based on personal preferences, while in the social scenario, group dynamics influence brand choices [6][10] - Peak ordering times for milk tea on delivery platforms occur between 14:00 and 16:00, indicating a strong social consumption trend during afternoon breaks [3][6] Competitive Analysis - In the self-drinking scenario, milk tea competes with ready-to-drink (RTD) beverages, with acceptable price ranges for milk tea being 10-15 yuan in urban areas [9][12] - The social scenario presents more complex competition, as users are willing to pay a premium (15-30 yuan) for products that fulfill both physiological and social needs [10][12] - The competition landscape includes not only direct milk tea brands but also RTD beverages and coffee, necessitating a broader analysis of pricing strategies [12][13] Product Structure - Milk tea products can be categorized into two main attributes: product attributes (easily replicable and deliverable) and service attributes (localized and dependent on human interaction) [14][18] - The trend indicates a shift towards product attributes in milk tea, with brands attempting to increase service attributes for higher pricing, though this may limit market reach [19][20] Cultural Context - The relationship between product and culture is complex, with tea and coffee cultures not significantly influencing the milk tea market in China [21][25][28] - Brands emphasizing cultural narratives may limit their appeal to broader consumer bases, as most users prioritize taste over cultural associations [29] Product Extension - Brands are encouraged to focus on internal product extensions (new flavors) rather than external (new product categories) to meet user demands effectively [33][34] - The rapid introduction of new products in the milk tea market reflects intense competition, with brands launching numerous new items to attract consumers [41] User Consumption Habits - Milk tea consumption is characterized by a tendency towards variety-seeking, with users willing to try new flavors and products [40][41] - The market is entering a phase of intense competition, leading to a rapid increase in new product launches as brands strive to maintain consumer interest [41] Brand Collaborations - The trend of frequent brand collaborations (149 instances in 2024) serves to enhance brand visibility and attract new consumer segments [42][43] - Collaborations can activate consumer interest in the milk tea category, particularly in the self-drinking scenario where impulsive purchases are common [49] Brand Case Study: Heytea - Heytea's fluctuating market position reflects challenges in maintaining user value amidst increasing competition and changing consumer preferences [50][53] - The brand's reliance on collaborations and pricing strategies indicates a need to clarify its market positioning to sustain growth [53] Membership and Loyalty Programs - The development of membership programs in the tea beverage market is still in its early stages, with many brands struggling to implement effective loyalty strategies [55][56] - A successful membership model requires a shift from customer acquisition to retention, emphasizing the importance of stable consumer relationships [56] Local Economic Model - The local economic model for milk tea shops focuses on meeting specific consumer needs within a defined area, with delivery services expanding market reach [57][58] - Brands are increasingly adopting strategies to enhance order efficiency and customer service capabilities to compete effectively in the market [58] Market Overlap Analysis - Analysis of store overlap among major brands reveals significant competition dynamics, particularly between brands like Luckin Coffee and Bawang Chaji [63][64] - Understanding the competitive landscape and store proximity can inform strategic decisions for market positioning and expansion [64][65]

Group 1: Nova Coffee Franchise Issues - Nova Coffee is facing complaints from franchisees alleging fraud, specifically regarding the opening of new stores within a promised 2-kilometer protection zone [1] - The franchisee claims that the company’s representatives assured them of this protection during the recruitment process, but the contract does not reflect such a commitment [1] - Nova Coffee's management stated that there is no such promise in their franchise policy and that they are initiating legal processes to verify the claims [1] Group 2: Luckin Coffee's AI Innovations - Luckin Coffee has launched its first AI agent (version 1.0) on its official app and WeChat mini-program, allowing customers to order coffee using voice commands [2] - The AI agent integrates DeepSeek and Doubao models, aiming to enhance customer interaction through personalized recommendations based on past orders [2] - The company plans to further explore upgrades for the AI agent to expand the integration of technology in the coffee experience [2] Group 3: Tea Industry Insights - Changjiang Securities reports that the new tea beverage industry is evolving from basic functional demands to more complex consumer needs, including product, experience, social, and brand demands [3] - The competition among tea brands has shifted from mere store expansion to a focus on profitability and operational efficiency, with leading brands enhancing support for franchisees and optimizing supply chains [3] - The report highlights that the expansion of the tea market is primarily driven by lower-tier markets domestically, while opportunities in Southeast Asia are abundant [3] Group 4: HiTea's Seasonal Product Launch - HiTea has reintroduced its popular Yangmei series, featuring three new products that cater to seasonal demand [4] - The Yangmei series has been a consumer favorite since its initial launch in 2020, and this year's offerings utilize the renowned "Dongkui" variety of Yangmei [4] - HiTea continues to explore diverse new ingredients to enhance its product offerings and provide unique tea experiences [4] Group 5: China International Tea Expo Success - The 7th China International Tea Expo concluded with over 6 billion yuan in total transaction value, marking a record high for the event [5] - The expo attracted nearly 200,000 attendees and featured 6,736 professional buyers from 25 countries, indicating strong international interest [5] - During the event, significant tea transactions were recorded, with 258.215 tons sold on-site and an intention to transact an additional 7,365.098 tons [5] Group 6: International Coffee Bean Flight - The first international coffee bean flight landed at Hubei Ezhou Huahu Airport, carrying 66 tons of Ethiopian specialty coffee beans [6] - Ethiopia is a key player in the coffee market and a significant exporter, with coffee being a major source of foreign exchange for the country [6] - The airport serves as a crucial hub for high-quality products entering the Chinese market, significantly reducing delivery times compared to traditional shipping methods [6]

中国咖啡行业可持续发展再获权威认可！5月26日，瑞幸咖啡举行LEED BD+C铂金级认证挂牌仪式，国际权威绿色建筑认证LEED（Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design，能源与环境设计先锋）向瑞幸咖啡（江苏）烘焙基地颁发认证。这是继4月份北京中关村·在握旗舰店挂牌LEED v4 ID+C铂金级认证之后，瑞幸咖啡获得的又一项国际绿 色认证殊荣，进一步彰显瑞幸作为中国咖啡行业领军品牌在绿色低碳发展方面的持续进步，取得世界领先水平。 据悉，瑞幸咖啡（江苏）烘焙基地于2024年4月20日落成投产，是国内已投产产能最大的单体咖啡烘焙基地。作为瑞幸咖啡践行可持续发展战略的重要项目，该基地依照国内外权 威绿色建筑认证标准打造，将绿色低碳贯彻于整个生产环节。 此文内容为企业供稿，仅供参考。 随着绿色建筑技术的进步，瑞幸咖啡紧跟时代要求，积极探索在门店、工厂等生产运营各环节的节能减排，持续打造绿色低碳发展标杆。除了已获得认证的瑞幸咖啡（江苏）烘 焙基地，瑞幸咖啡青岛创新生产中心亦将按照LEED BD+C铂金级标准打造。在门店端，瑞幸咖啡目前拥有1家LEED铂金级认证门店和3家L ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights strong growth in the number of coffee and Western fast-food outlets, while the tea beverage segment is experiencing increasing differentiation [2] - The net opening numbers for various brands indicate a competitive landscape, with some brands expanding rapidly while others are contracting [3][4] Summary by Sections Net Opening Trends - In the first four months of 2025, the net opening numbers show significant growth for brands like KFC (+777), McDonald's (+52), and Luckin Coffee (+1474), while brands like Huaiyang and others are seeing declines [6][10] - The tea beverage segment shows mixed results, with brands like Mixue Ice Cream and Tea (+3123) expanding, while others like Heytea and Nayuki are facing contractions [8] Average Transaction Price Trends - The average transaction prices for major fast-food brands have shown a downward trend, with KFC and McDonald's experiencing declines of -3.9% and -2.1% respectively in recent months [7] - In the tea beverage sector, brands like Mixue and Heytea are also facing pressure on average transaction prices, with some brands showing significant declines [14] Coffee and Hot Pot Segment - The coffee segment is witnessing strong growth, with brands like Luckin Coffee and Manner showing net opening increases of 7% and 9% respectively [10] - The hot pot segment, however, is facing challenges, with brands like Haidilao and others showing minimal growth or declines in net openings [11] Other Food Categories - The report indicates a noticeable contraction in the number of outlets for categories like pickled fish and snacks, with brands like Tai Er and Yu Ni Zai Yi Qi showing negative net openings [13] - Average transaction prices in these categories are also under pressure, reflecting broader challenges in consumer spending [14]

Macro Commentary - The US economy shows signs of slowing down, with significant declines in retail and manufacturing output due to tariff impacts, particularly affecting durable goods like automobiles and electronics [2] - Despite the slowdown, unemployment claims remain stable, indicating that the service sector is less affected, and employment in this sector remains robust [2] - Inflation is expected to rebound temporarily from May to August, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain interest rates until September, when a potential rate cut may occur [2] Industry Commentary - The Chinese pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a strong trend in innovative drug exports, with several significant business development transactions occurring despite recent tariff tensions [5][6] - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has risen by 14.9% since early 2025, although it has underperformed compared to the broader MSCI China Index [5] - The US innovative drug prices are unlikely to decrease in the short term due to recent executive orders, but long-term pressures on healthcare spending are anticipated [7] Company Initiation - The report covers Angelalign Technology (6699 HK), a leading provider of invisible orthodontic solutions in China, which has maintained a market share of 42% in the domestic market [9][10] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.8% from 2019 to 2024, with a projected CAGR of 18.0% from 2024 to 2027 [9] - Angelalign is expanding internationally, with a goal to cover over 50 countries and achieve significant revenue growth from overseas markets, which is expected to account for 30% of total revenue by 2024 [11][12]

本周观点 关注海外资产的季报变化： 投资逻辑 持续关注中美关税谈判，关注海外资产一季报的变化。因关税贸易战引发（包括担心中概退市）的海外中国资产 跌幅陆续得到填补，挖掘超跌板块或个股的难度增加。建议关注：1）美股中概资产：对交易平台资产的推荐不 变，但短期暂无新增催化或者增量逻辑；保持对咖啡龙头的长期看好；保持关注跌出深度价值的个股；2）港股 互联网资产：关注追求确定性的优质互联网平台、外卖平台竞争情况。3）港股消费类资产：咖啡茶饮板块关注 咖啡龙头，同时关注将 IPO 的消费类公司。4）其他：建议关注困境反转标的，及互金助贷板块。5）传媒：建议 关注重组逻辑的个股机会。个股：拼多多、贝壳、分众传媒、芒果超媒。 风险提示 后续政策不及预期风险；中美关系变化风险；内容上线及表现不及预期风险；宏观经济运行不及预期风险；AI 技 术迭代和应用不及预期风险；政策监管风险 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 教育：上周在线教育公司高途/有道发布财报，收入收款保持较好增长的同时，盈利能力有所提升。结合近期财 报看，K12 教培行业景气良好，非学科课程续班率提升，继续看好龙头公司转型后持续扩大市场份额。 奢侈品：上周历峰集团发布财报 ...

Group 1 - The first Yunnan Gems of Coffee CoE Pilot competition successfully concluded on May 16, 2025, with 19 winning coffee beans selected from 144 participating teams, and the top 10 beans auctioned to global buyers, with 100% of the proceeds benefiting local coffee farmers [1] - The CoE competition is recognized as the "Olympics of coffee bean competitions," marking a significant opportunity for Yunnan coffee to enter an international evaluation system for the first time [1] - Luckin Coffee, as the strategic partner of the event, demonstrates its commitment to promoting Yunnan's specialty coffee on the international stage [1] Group 2 - Luckin Coffee has established a comprehensive supply chain in Yunnan, contributing to the region's coffee production, which accounts for over 98% of China's coffee output [2] - In 2024, Yunnan's coffee exports reached 32,500 tons, a 358% increase year-on-year, with exports to 29 countries and regions [2] - Luckin Coffee's processing plant in Baoshan, Yunnan, began trial operations in March 2024, utilizing advanced processing lines to enhance the quality supply chain [2] Group 3 - By 2024, the specialty coffee rate in Yunnan increased from 8% in 2021 to 31.6%, and the deep processing rate rose from 20% to 80%, showcasing the improvement in quality and processing [3] - The strategic support for the CoE pilot competition reflects Luckin Coffee's strong focus on the development of Yunnan's specialty coffee and its role as a bridge to international markets [3]