Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Meituan (3690.HK) with a revised price target of HK$160, down from HK$200, implying a 24% upside from the current price of HK$129.40 [6][8][36] Core Views - The food delivery volume growth is expected to sustain at 10.5% in Q2 2025, but operating profit (OP) is anticipated to decline due to intensified competition [1][3] - Despite near-term margin pressures and widening losses from new initiatives, the long-term competitive moat of Meituan in food delivery remains strong [1][6] - The report highlights a successful expansion in Hong Kong and ongoing efforts in the Middle East, particularly in Saudi Arabia [4][6] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, total revenue grew by 18% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA of Rmb12.3 billion, exceeding market expectations [30] - The core local commerce (CLC) revenue also increased by 18%, with an operating profit of Rmb13.5 billion, reflecting a 39% year-over-year growth [30] - New initiatives revenue rose by 19%, but operating losses were recorded at Rmb2.3 billion, attributed to narrowing losses from Meituan Select and increased overseas investments [30] Revenue and Profit Estimates - For Q2 2025, CLC revenue is estimated at Rmb67 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, while OP is projected to decline by 24% year-over-year to Rmb7.7 billion due to higher investments and a challenging comparison base [3][31] - The report has cut revenue estimates by 2% and non-IFRS net profit estimates by 14-19% for 2025-26, reflecting the impact of competition and new initiative losses [31][32] Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape has intensified since May 2025, particularly with peers launching promotional activities for the 618 festival, which is expected to affect Meituan's operating profit [3][5] - The report notes that while regulatory changes regarding platform fees are being implemented, Meituan's take rates and subsidies have remained stable [5][6] Expansion and Initiatives - The report anticipates stable losses from new initiatives in Q2 2025, estimated at Rmb2.5 billion, but warns of potential further downside in FY25 due to the Brazil expansion [4][6] - The focus for expansion remains on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, with successful operations in Saudi Arabia [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Meituan (3690.HK) with a target price of HK$172.00, representing an upside of 32.9% from the current price of HK$129.40 [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a solid profit beat for Meituan in 1Q25, driven by strong local commerce profits, although it anticipates mixed reactions due to increased competition in the food delivery sector leading to higher subsidies [1][7]. - Meituan is aggressively defending its leadership in food delivery, expecting a healthy growth in food delivery volume into 2Q25, with a forecast of 9% year-over-year growth [7][20]. - The competitive landscape is becoming more fragmented, with expectations of a three-player market, which may impact future profitability [22]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for Meituan have been adjusted, with 2025 estimates showing a revenue of Rmb382,513.3 million, reflecting a growth of 11% year-over-year [3][20]. - The adjusted EBIT for the core local commerce segment is projected at Rmb44.7 billion for 2025, down from previous estimates due to increased competition and subsidies [20][22]. - The report anticipates a decline in food delivery EBIT by 33% for 2025 due to increased user subsidies [20]. Market Position and Strategy - Meituan maintains a leading position with over 14.5 million local service merchants and a strong user base, supported by membership programs [7][15]. - The company is focusing on expanding its Instashopping segment, which is expected to grow by 27% in 2Q25, driven by improved purchase frequency among users [17][20]. - Meituan's strategy includes significant investments in AI to enhance operational efficiency and drive growth, with a projected capex of Rmb14 billion for FY25 [20][22]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides various valuation metrics, including a P/E ratio of 15.9 for 2024 and a projected P/B ratio of 4.0 [3][9]. - The estimated free cash flow yield for 2024 is 6.6%, indicating a strong cash generation capability [9][10]. - The report reflects a downward adjustment in the target price from HK$200 to HK$172, considering the competitive pressures and revised profit expectations [22][28].

无需港股通，A股账户就能T+0买港股>> 美团低开高走盘中涨超1%，此前一度跌近5%。消息面上，美团公告，第一季度营收865.6亿元人民币， 同比增18.1%，预估854.4亿元人民币；第一季度调整后净利润109.5亿元人民币，同比增长46.2%，预估 97.3亿元人民币。 ...

金十数据5月27日讯，美团宣布联合百大餐饮、零售品牌，于5月28日至6月18日开启618大促活动。活动 期间，美团将面向全体消费者发放618元神券包。 （36氪） 美团启动618大促 ...

恒指、恒生科技指数双双转涨，美团跌幅收窄至不到2%，开盘一度跌近5%。 ...

5月27日，美团宣布联合百大餐饮、零售品牌，于5月28日至6月18日开启618大促活动。活动期间，美团将面向全体消 费者发放618元神券包，用于外卖和闪购，在酒水饮料、休闲食品、数码家电、美妆护肤、运动用品、母婴用品等品 类购物。此外，美团还向会员升级618福利，黑金会员可领取818元神券包，黑钻会员可领取888元神券包。消费者可 在美团App搜索"美团618"，进入活动页面领取各项福利。 这是618大促首次覆盖"餐饮外卖+购物"的生活消费全品类，美团将携外卖、闪购两个业务重点参与，联动知名餐饮、 零售品牌旗下的百万家线下门店，为用户打造吃喝购物都低价的消费体验。在618元大额优惠权益的基础上，美团外 卖将发放"天天必膨，满18减18"的618外卖神券，帮助消费者吃喝省钱；美团闪购将上线618神价，打造手机电脑、数 码家电、酒水奶粉等品类的大牌商品低价，品牌门店直发，30分钟送达。 美团携外卖和闪购等即时零售业态加入今年618，让众多本地实体有了参与传统电商大促的机会。"此次美团携手餐 饮、实体零售等百万本地商家参与618，除了希望发挥'吃喝购物'全场景的特点，让消费者吃喝购物都能省钱，也希望 助力线下实体分 ...

5月27日早盘，港股三大指数集体低开，恒生指数跌0.28%，报23216.87点，恒生科指跌0.52%，国企指 数跌0.31%。盘面上，科网股涨跌不一，核电股继续上涨，汽车股普跌，机器人概念股普涨。开盘后， 恒生科技指数一度翻红，恒生科技指数ETF(513180)跟随指数震荡，持仓股中，地平线机器人、阅文集 团等领涨，京东集团、美团等领跌。 资金方面，南向资金昨日共计净卖出15.07亿港元，港股通(沪)净买入18.56亿港元，港股通(深)净卖出 33.63亿港元。个股方面，南向资金昨日大幅净买入美团20.82亿港元，分别净买入中国移动 （600941）、地平线机器人8.43亿港元、7.30亿港元。腾讯控股、阿里巴巴-W、比亚迪（002594）股份 则分别遭净卖出20.92亿港元、17.32亿港元、10.50亿港元。 消息面上，昨日美团发布第一季度财报。财报显示，美团第一季度营收达到865.6亿元人民币，超出市 场预估的854.4亿元人民币。在盈利能力方面，美团第一季度净利润实现100.6亿元人民币，远高于预估 的86.3亿元人民币；调整后净利润更是达到109.5亿元人民币，同样超过预估的97.3亿元人民币。在 ...

21世纪经济报道新质生产力研究院综合报道 早上好，新的一天又开始了。在过去的24小时内，科技行业发生了哪些有意思的事情？来跟21tech一起 看看吧。 【巨头风向标】 美团王兴回应：将不惜代价赢得竞争。5月26日，在美团第一季度电话会议上，对于京东百亿补贴对美 团外卖业务造成的影响，美团CEO王兴回应称美团"将不惜代价赢得竞争。"他表示，过往美团也经历了 几轮非常激烈的竞争，相信美团这次也能获胜。美团欢迎新玩家进入这一市场，也认可外卖行业有巨大 的潜力。（证券时报） 不听人类指挥，OpenAI模型拒绝关闭。据报道， 人类专家在测试中给o3下达明确指令，但o3篡改计算 机代码以避免自动关闭。o3模型是OpenAI"推理模型"系列的最新版本，旨在为ChatGPT提供更强大的问 题解决能力。OpenAI曾称o3为"迄今最聪明、最高能"的模型。美国AI安全机构帕利塞德研究所说，o3 破坏关闭机制以阻止自己被关闭，"甚至在得到清晰指令时"。这家研究所说："据我们所知，这是AI模 型首次被发现在收到……清晰指令后阻止自己被关闭。"（央视新闻） 特斯拉前高管打脸马斯克：Optimus机器人不适合在工厂工作。特斯拉CEO埃隆 ...

京东(09618.HK)开跌2.01%，昨日美团CEO王兴表示，将不惜代价赢得竞争。 ...

小米回应玄戒芯片「自研风波」 马斯克：AI 将替代传统搜索 哪吒汽车原 CEO 被冻结 4050 万股权 红杉中国推出智能体 基准测试「xbench」 15 亿美元 AI 独角兽崩塌，被曝用印度程序员冒充 前 OpenAI 华人副总曝光新公司发展方向 香港多家高校：愿接收在美留学生转学 视频 AI Agent「AIpai」官宣 IBM 高管：2025 年是 AI Agent 规模应用的「拐点时刻」 Google Pixel 10 真机曝光 李未可 View AI 拍摄眼镜发布 美团 CEO 回应京东外卖百亿补贴 消息称微信语音界面更新 小米回应玄戒芯片「自研风波」 5 月 22 日，小米正式发布旗下自研芯片「玄戒 O1」。 「玄戒 O1」的具体规格方面，其采用了台积电第二代 3nm 制程工艺，塞入了 190 亿晶体管，拥有十核心四丛集 CPU 架构（2 颗超大核+ 4 颗大核+2 颗小核 + 2 颗超小核），配备 16 核 GPU。 发布后的几天时间，不断有外界声音猜测「玄戒 O1」是向 Arm 定制的芯片。随后，Arm 官方发布了一篇题为《Xiaomi's New Silicon Powered by Ar ...