消费方面，摩根士丹利预计家庭消费实际增速将于今明两年分别达到4.9%及4.6%。消费回暖或主要得 益于以旧换新，其扩容之后将包含更多的非耐用品。考虑到国补的3000亿元人民币额度，叠加上一些地 方的配套补贴，总补贴规模或达到家庭消费的0.7%左右。此外，定向的生育补贴、"消费瓶颈"（如汽车 牌照限制）减少，以及对服务业的信贷支持也将温和提振消费。 股市方面，报告称，鉴于股本回报率、近期盈利、地缘政治紧张局势缓和等带来的结构性改善，摩根士 丹利上调中国股指的目标点位。摩根士丹利2月上调中国权重的主要原因，现在仍然成立：企业自救和 股东回报提升使股本回报率触底回升，估值区间上移，特别是离岸股票市场；政府对私营部门的支持得 到确认；AI、科技、智能制造领域出现了能够引领全球技术竞争的科技领袖。 摩根士丹利研究部近日发布中国经济和股市年中展望报告表示，上调对2025年中国经济增速预期以及中 国股指目标。 该报告显示，摩根士丹利将今明两年的经济增速预测分别从此前的4.2%和4.0%，上调至4.5%和4.2%。 外部冲击的缓和，也降低了增量政策出台的紧迫性。现行的政策框架旨在为经济托底，重视科技创新， 稳健推进经济再平衡 ...

生成式 AI 正在帮助企业完成一项迟来的任务：更新自己的信息技术系统，将老旧过时的代码重写成现代编程语 言形式，特别是那些广泛应用、但比披头士乐队还要"古老"的编程语言。 摩根士丹利全球技术与运营主管 Mike Pizzi 最近曝出，该公司内部通过自己构建的 AI 工具，在今年已经审查了 900 万行遗留代码，为开发者节约下 28 万小时的工作时长。这样的成果迅速引发了大家的关注。 使用自有代码库训练工具 今年 1 月，摩根士丹利发布了一款名为 DevGen.AI 的工具，其基于 OpenAI 的 GPT 模型并由内部开发团队构建 而成。DevGen.AI 能够将 Cobol 等语言编写的陈旧代码整理为简单的英语规范，再由开发者根据规范进行代码重 写。 之所以选择自己构建，是因为在摩根士丹利看来，哪怕有了市面上主流 AI 编码工具的加持，对遗留软件进行现 代化升级也难以找到有效的解决途径。 Pizzi 表示，这些商业 AI 工具更擅长编写新的现代代码，却不一定精通那些人气较低或者年代久远的编程语言， 更不用说针对特定业务需求定制的语言了。他补充称，虽然不少科技企业正朝这个方向努力，但目前其产品还 不具备企业应 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects a 25 basis point rate cut, maintaining GDP forecasts for this year while lowering next year's GDP forecast and significantly reducing inflation predictions [1] - UBS anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, with the last cut expected in July, bringing rates down to 1.75%, and a potential rate hike by the end of 2026 to address inflation risks [1] - Bank of America predicts a 25 basis point rate cut, noting that the market has already priced in the recent ECB rate cut, which is unlikely to have a significant impact on the euro [1] Group 2 - Nomura Securities forecasts a 25 basis point rate cut, with further cuts expected in July and September until rates reach 1.50%, while adjusting GDP and inflation predictions [1][2] - Deutsche Bank expects a 25 basis point rate cut, suggesting that the terminal rate for the easing cycle should remain at 1.50%, with a potential rate hike to 1.75% by the end of 2026 [2] - Pacific Investment Management Company anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, indicating that the ECB is entering the final phase of its easing cycle, with current market pricing around 1.7% appearing reasonable [3]

Core Viewpoint - Bank stocks may experience a period of outperformance following a wave of market volatility triggered by tariffs, as the worst moments appear to be over [1] Group 1: Bank Stock Performance - Analyst Ebrahim Poonawala highlights that large bank stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 index in terms of stock price performance and earnings per share (EPS) revisions this year [1] - Recommended leading bank stocks include JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US), Wells Fargo (WFC.US), Goldman Sachs (GS.US), Bank of New York Mellon (BK.US), and Morgan Stanley (MS.US) [1] Group 2: 3R Theory - Poonawala's bullish outlook is based on the "3R" theory: Rates, Regulations, and Rebounding activity, which he believes are currently more stable [1] - The structural uplift in the interest rate environment and a more balanced regulatory policy are expected to prompt investors to reassess the relative value of bank stocks [1] Group 3: Regional Banks - Regional bank stocks have lagged behind the overall market in performance and earnings expectations, with banks like Huntington Bancshares (HBAN.US), Fifth Third Bank (FITB.US), and KeyCorp (KEY.US) still considered attractive but needing catalysts such as recognized M&A activity or a rebound in loan business [1] - The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE.US) has declined by 4.6% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 index has increased by 1.5% in the same period [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have increased by 27% this year, while the US dollar index has decreased by 9%, indicating a strong negative correlation between the two assets [1][7]. Group 1: Historical Context - The negative correlation between gold and the US dollar index has reached -96% this year, significantly higher than the average of -39% since 1990 [2]. - Since 1990, there have only been seven instances of a negative correlation exceeding -95%, making the current situation historically rare [3]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - During periods of extreme negative correlation, the average rolling return for gold over five months has been 8%, compared to an overall average of 3% since 1990 [6]. - In the seven historical periods of strong negative correlation, five showed a pattern of a declining dollar and rising gold prices, supported by factors such as ETF inflows, safe-haven demand, and central bank purchases [6]. Group 3: Future Projections - Morgan Stanley predicts that the US dollar index will fall to 91 by Q2 2026, which could lead to gold prices reaching $3,800 per ounce, surpassing the previous target of $3,500 [10]. - The current strong demand from central banks and ETF inflows is providing support for gold prices [7]. Group 4: Demand Structure - Despite the historical correlation suggesting gold price increases, such periods typically last for a short duration, with the longest being 44 days in 2007 [11]. - Recent trends indicate a slowdown in ETF inflows due to competition from other asset classes, and jewelry demand has dropped to its weakest level since 2020, necessitating observation of consumer adaptation to higher prices [11].

Investment Rating - The report indicates an overall positive sentiment towards US equities and core fixed income, suggesting an overweight (OW) position in these areas [12]. Core Insights - Equity markets experienced a rally in May, with the S&P 500 gaining 6.3% and the TOPIX increasing by 5.0%. Technology and communication services sectors led the gains, while healthcare lagged with a decline of 3.7% [2][11]. - The Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI) shifted to a neutral stance after initially signaling risk-off, with the VIX index reaching three-month lows [4][11]. - Gross issuance in the investment-grade (IG) and high-yield (HY) markets decreased by 12% and 28% respectively compared to the 2024 run rate, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3][11]. Market Review & Trends - **Equities**: The S&P 500 had its best May performance since 1990, with total returns of 6.3%. The technology sector outperformed with a 10.3% increase [5][11]. - **Fixed Income**: The UST 10Y yield was reported at 4.4%, with a total return of -1.1% for the month [11][32]. - **FX**: The US dollar depreciated against most developed market currencies, with the DXY index down 0.1% [2][34]. - **Commodities**: WTI Crude oil saw a notable increase of 5.3% in May [2][34]. Valuations - The report highlights that the current P/E ratio for the S&P 500 stands at 23.3, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical averages [27][30]. - The forward P/E for various sectors shows that communication services and consumer discretionary sectors are at 90% and 88% percentile respectively, suggesting high valuations [31][30]. Technicals - The report notes a significant decrease in gross issuance for both IG and HY markets, with a year-over-year decline of 12% for DM IG and 28% for DM HY [3][11]. - The cumulative change in the Fed rate over the next 12 months is projected to be -84 basis points, indicating expectations of rate cuts [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the global credit market Core Insights - US Investment Grade (IG) spreads tightened by 3 basis points (bp) last week, resulting in an excess return of 32 bp, with inflows of $1.9 billion for the week and a year-to-date (YTD) total of $12.6 billion [2] - US High Yield (HY) spreads tightened by 16 bp, leading to an excess return of 39 bp, with inflows of $0.2 billion for the week and a YTD total of $2.7 billion [3] - US Leveraged Loans saw spreads tighten by 2 bp, yielding a total return of 22 bp, with inflows of $0.3 billion for the week and a YTD total of $2.5 billion [4] - EU Investment Grade spreads tightened by 4 bp, resulting in an excess return of 23 bp, with net inflows of €2.1 billion for the week and €19.1 billion YTD [5] - EU High Yield spreads tightened by 17 bp, translating into an excess return of 50 bp, with net inflows of €606 million for the week and €0.6 billion YTD [6] - Asia Credit spreads tightened by 2 bp, with IG spreads tightening by 3 bp and HY spreads widening by 6 bp [7] Summary by Sections Global Credit Snapshot - US IG current spread is 88 bp, with a 1-year change of 32% and a 12-month change of 2 bp [12] - EU IG current spread is 100 bp, with a 1-year change of 34% and a 12-month change of -8 bp [12] - Asia IG current spread is 78 bp, with a 1-year change of 27% and a 12-month change of 0 bp [12] Performance Across Asset Classes - US IG funds saw inflows of $1.9 billion, with YTD issuance reaching $866 billion, a 7.4% increase year-over-year [2] - US HY funds experienced inflows of $0.2 billion, with YTD supply tracking at $106 billion, a 26% decrease year-over-year [3] - EU IG funds had net inflows of €2.1 billion, with YTD volumes at €356 billion, a 7% increase year-over-year [5] - EU HY funds saw net inflows of €606 million, with YTD supply at €56 billion, a 13% decrease year-over-year [6] Credit Demand and Supply - Weekly supply for US IG reached $24 billion, raising YTD issuance to $866 billion [2] - Weekly supply for US HY was $5 billion, with YTD supply at $106 billion [3] - Weekly supply for EU IG was €12 billion, lifting YTD volumes to €356 billion [5] - Weekly supply for EU HY was €1 billion, with YTD supply tracking at €56 billion [6] Sector Performance - In US IG, media, telecoms, and retail sectors delivered the best performance, while basic industry, automotive, and services lagged [2] - In US HY, transportation, technology, and real estate sectors delivered the highest excess returns, while banking, telecoms, and insurance lagged [3] - In EU IG, leisure, automotive, and insurance sectors outperformed, while services, utility, and transportation lagged [5] - In EU HY, single B rated bonds outperformed [6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Viewpoints - The report discusses the potential for Asia to achieve a sustainable rebalancing, suggesting that while the current account surplus may narrow, the consumption-to-GDP ratio is unlikely to change significantly, indicating that true and lasting rebalancing may not be achieved [2][8][35] Summary by Sections Current Account Trends - The report details the trends in bilateral current account balances between Asia and the US, highlighting that Asia's trade surplus with the US reached USD 760 billion, accounting for 55% of the US trade deficit [7][12] - It predicts that Asia's current account surplus as a percentage of GDP will narrow, primarily due to a slowdown in trade cycles and potential increases in purchases from the US [7][34] Economic Structure and Growth Model - Asia's persistent current account surplus reflects a manufacturing-driven growth model, with high savings relative to investment [8][24] - The report notes that Asia has maintained a current account surplus for 35 consecutive years, with a historical high of USD 1.1 trillion in Q1 2025, representing 4.1% of GDP [12][13] Investment Position - Asia's international investment position has grown to USD 45 trillion, surpassing both the US and Eurozone [49][50] - The report indicates that since 2018, Asia's holdings in US securities have increased by USD 2.8 trillion, now totaling USD 8.6 trillion, with the share of US assets in Asia's portfolio rising from 37% to 41% [65][72] Future Projections - The report forecasts a slight narrowing of the current account surplus to USD 0.9 trillion (3.1% of GDP) in 2025, down from USD 1.0 trillion (3.6% of GDP) in 2024 [34][36] - It emphasizes that the expected narrowing of the current account surplus should not be viewed as a sustainable rebalancing, as structural changes in savings and consumption patterns are not anticipated [35][66]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry or specific assets [4]. Core Insights - The S&P 500 experienced its best May performance since 1990, indicating strong market sentiment [9]. - US goods imports saw a significant drop of 20% in a month, marking the largest decline ever recorded [9]. - Bloomberg's Fedspeak index has reached its most dovish level in over four years, suggesting a shift in monetary policy outlook [9]. Summary by Sections Equities - S&P 500 forecasted returns range from -15.8% (bear case) to 23.1% (bull case) with a base case return of 19% [4]. - MSCI Europe shows a bear case of -22.8% and a bull case of 23.6%, with a base case return of 16% [4]. - Emerging Markets (MSCI EM) forecasted returns range from -22.1% to 20.2%, with a base case return of 16% [4]. Foreign Exchange - The JPY is forecasted to depreciate to 144 in the bear case and appreciate to 130 in the bull case, with a base case of 143 [4]. - The EUR is expected to range from 1.13 (bear) to 1.25 (bull), with a base case of 1.14 [4]. Rates - The 10-year UST yield is forecasted to range from 4.40% (bear) to 3.45% (bull), with a base case of 4.00% [4]. - UK 10-year yields are expected to range from 4.65% (bear) to 3.95% (bull), with a base case of 4.35% [4]. Credit - US Investment Grade (IG) credit spreads are forecasted to tighten from 88 bps (bear) to 90 bps (bull), with a base case of 130 bps [4]. - US High Yield (HY) spreads are expected to range from 315 bps (bear) to 335 bps (bull), with a base case of 475 bps [4]. Commodities - Brent crude oil is forecasted to range from $64 (bear) to $55 (bull), with a base case of $45 [4]. - Gold prices are expected to range from $3,278 (bear) to $3,250 (bull), with a base case of $2,760 [4]. Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI) - The MSI aggregates survey positioning, volatility, and momentum data to quantify market stress and sentiment, indicating a current negative sentiment [50][55]. Cross-Asset Positioning - In US equities, asset managers are net long at 27%, while hedge funds are net short at -7% [63]. - In commodities, positioning shows 25% net long in gold, while 7% net long in Brent [63]. Cross-Asset Correlations - The current global correlation index stands at 43%, indicating a slight increase from the previous month [72]. - Equity correlations are at 70%, while credit correlations are at 80%, reflecting strong interdependencies [72]. ETF Flows - US equities saw a net inflow of $0.7 billion over the past week, while world equities had a net inflow of $0.8 billion [37]. - Bond markets experienced a significant inflow of $15.1 billion, indicating strong demand for fixed income [37]. Volatility Monitor - The implied volatility for the S&P 500 is currently at 17.0%, reflecting market expectations of future volatility [96]. - Major equity markets show varying levels of volatility, with the Nasdaq at 21.2% [96]. Overall Market Performance - Major developed market equity indices posted gains, with TOPIX up 2.4% and NASDAQ up 2% [98]. - Commodity markets generally posted losses, with copper down 3.3% [98].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific assets discussed Core Insights - The report discusses several key debates regarding US assets and their safe-haven status, fiscal expansion, Chinese risk assets, and future Fed rate cuts, indicating a cautious outlook on certain areas while maintaining a positive view on US assets overall [8][22][27] Summary by Sections Fiscal Expansion and Term Premium - Expected fiscal expansion of approximately US$300 billion next year is anticipated to have a marginal impact on the term premium, with most deficits funded by T-bills [9][10] - Only about US$90 billion is expected from new policy changes in the upcoming US fiscal bill [9] Chinese Risk Assets - The report suggests that it is not the right time to become strategically constructive on Chinese risk assets due to ongoing domestic deflation and tariff uncertainties [14][16] Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - The expectation of 175 basis points of Fed cuts by 2026 is based on the current restrictive rates and a projected unemployment rate increase to 4.8% by the end of 2026, despite not forecasting a recession [17][20] US Assets as Safe Haven - The report argues that fears regarding US assets losing their safe-haven allure are overstated, as the US stock market capitalization is significantly larger than other markets, and a substantial portion of high-grade fixed income is denominated in USD [22][24][26] Tariff Outlook - The report maintains a base case for tariffs, projecting a 10% baseline for most geographies and 30-40% on China, with various legal authorities available to the US administration to maintain or re-establish current tariff levels [27][28]