去年年底以来，⬀策层及官媒开始营造反内ⷑ的社会氛围。而⯆造业信贷的放 缓、部⮇过Ⱁ行业投资回落以及工业企业⮵润的温和修复似乎显示了再平衡已⮤ 见成效。然而，一家头部新能源车企于周一大幅降价促销，引发了市场ⲁ荡，同 时也重新引发了市场对于中国经济和再通胀⯥景的辩论。 对工业企业⮵润的进一步研究表明，根深蒂固的供需错配仍在⯆约中国的再通 胀。考虑⮽通过债ⱷ推ⲁ的强⯌激政策或已成为过去式，我们认为中国目⯥的再 平衡和再通胀需要伴随一些结构性的改革，ⴎ括社会福⮵的改善、债ⱷ重组、税 ⯆改革以及营造有⮵于增长的监管环境。上述改革皆有难度，因此我们认为实施 的步伐将是循序渐进的，再通胀短期内仍具挑战，而中长期内也无坦途。 #1. 工业企业利润修复主要由于销量以及降本增效，然而定价能力仍然羸弱。 我们可以将工业企业利润增速拆分为三项：售价（使用PPI来观察）、⮵润率（统 计局数据）以及销量（ Exhibit 1 ）。拆⮇后我们可以总结三点： 1.利润率受基数影响，夸大了整体利润增速的改善：去年三季度之后，工业企业⮵ 润同比增速现了明显的反弹，从去年9月份-27%的低谷一路上ⶍ⮽今年4月份 的3.3%。然而，去年三季度⮵润增 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The U.S. nuclear power plan under the Trump administration aims to significantly increase nuclear capacity to 400 GW by 2050, which is four times the current operational capacity of 100 GW [2][3] - Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook on uranium prices, citing long-term demand support from the nuclear revival theme in the U.S. [1][2] - The ambitious nuclear capacity goal will require the construction of 20 new reactors annually, a significant challenge given the historical context of U.S. nuclear development [3][7] Group 2: Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - The U.S. nuclear fuel supply chain is heavily reliant on imports, with two-thirds of enrichment and conversion needs depending on foreign sources [8] - By 2030, U.S. mines are projected to meet about 40% of domestic uranium demand, with Canada expected to fill much of the gap [8] - The construction of small modular reactors (SMRs) may be expedited by recent executive orders, with potential deployment by the end of 2030 [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street investment banks are strengthening their view that the US dollar will weaken further due to interest rate cuts, economic slowdown, and President Trump's trade and tax policies [1][2][3] Group 1: Predictions on Dollar Value - Morgan Stanley predicts that the dollar index will decline by approximately 9% to 91 by this time next year [2] - Morgan Stanley's global macro strategy head states that the dollar is expected to drop to levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic by mid-next year [1] - Pioneer Investments anticipates a 10% depreciation of the Bloomberg Dollar Index within the next 12 months [3] Group 2: Currency Comparisons - Morgan Stanley suggests that the euro, yen, and Swiss franc will be the biggest beneficiaries of the dollar's decline [2] - The euro reached a five-week high against the dollar, peaking at 1.1450, with expectations to rise to around 1.25 next year [2] - The British pound is projected to strengthen from approximately 1.35 to 1.45 against the dollar due to "high carry" returns and lower trade risk [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has seen a decline as US factory activity shrank for the third consecutive month [1] - Investors are reassessing their risk exposure to US assets, leading to increased hedging ratios, which may contribute to downward pressure on the dollar over the next 12 months [1] - Upcoming US labor market indicators, including the May non-farm payroll report, will be closely monitored to gauge potential changes in Federal Reserve policy and its impact on the dollar [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of the tax provision 899 in the "Big Beautiful Act," warning that it could lead to the largest capital tax shock in history for Wall Street, particularly affecting foreign investors in U.S. assets [1][3][12]. Group 1: Tax Provision 899 - Provision 899 introduces a punitive tax structure for investors from countries deemed to have "discriminatory" tax policies, starting with a 5% increase in tax rates, escalating by 5% annually, up to a maximum of 20% [3][4]. - The provision's scope is broad, potentially affecting various forms of income, including passive income, real estate investments, and business profits, which could impact previously exempt entities like foreign central banks and sovereign wealth funds [3][4]. Group 2: Market Implications - If the provision applies to U.S. Treasury bonds, it could lead to a steepening of the yield curve, a weakening of the dollar, and an expansion of credit spreads, as foreign investors may react quickly to tax changes [2][8][12]. - The report indicates that foreign investors hold a significant portion of U.S. debt, with total liabilities to foreign entities reaching $39.8 trillion, of which 83% are securities [4][6]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Effects - The tax changes could disproportionately affect corporate bonds, where foreign investors hold about 25% of the market, potentially leading to liquidity pressures and increased volatility [12][13]. - Commercial real estate (CRE) could see greater valuation impacts due to the higher foreign buyer percentage compared to residential real estate [15]. Group 4: Hedge Fund Risks - Hedge funds may face significant challenges as the tax rate increase could eliminate arbitrage opportunities, fundamentally disrupting the business models of those relying on cross-border arbitrage in U.S. markets [17]. Group 5: Legislative Outlook - The Senate is viewed as a critical player in clarifying the applicability of provision 899, with potential adjustments to the scope and implementation timeline [20][21]. - There is uncertainty regarding the worst-case scenario of the provision's implementation, with estimates of revenue generation potentially being significantly underestimated if all foreign-held assets are taxed [18][19].

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 42,305.48, up by 35.41 points or 0.08% [2] - The Nasdaq is at 19,242.61, increasing by 128.84 points or 0.67% [2] - The S&P 500 stands at 5,935.94, rising by 24.25 points or 0.41% [2] - The Hang Seng Index is at 23,157.97, down by 131.80 points or 0.57% [2] - The Nikkei 225 is at 37,470.67, decreasing by 494.43 points or 1.30% [2] Trade Negotiations - The Trump administration is urging countries involved in tariff negotiations to submit their "best offers" by Wednesday, indicating a push to accelerate trade talks before a July deadline [3] - The U.S. government is seeking proposals in key areas such as tariffs and quotas on industrial and agricultural products [3] Economic Policy Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the need for understanding the impact of potential dollar volatility on U.S. households and businesses [3] - Powell did not comment on monetary policy or economic outlook during his speech [3] Tariff Increases - The U.S. has raised steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50%, which the EU expressed regret over, stating it adds to economic uncertainty [3] - Negotiations between the U.S. and the EU are ongoing, with meetings scheduled for the week [3] Corporate Developments - Neuralink, Elon Musk's brain-computer interface startup, has completed a $650 million Series E funding round with participation from notable investors [6] - Microsoft has laid off over 300 employees in addition to a previously announced 6,000 layoffs, indicating ongoing organizational restructuring [7] Financial Performance - The 2025 Fortune 500 list shows total revenue for the 500 companies increased from $18.8 trillion to $19.91 trillion, a growth of approximately 6% [8] - Walmart remains the top company by revenue for the thirteenth consecutive year, followed by Amazon and UnitedHealth Group [8]

智通财经APP获悉，周一，随着全球贸易紧张局势加剧，美元兑十国集团(G10)所有货币均出现下跌。 Bloomberg美元指数下跌0.6%，接近2023年以来最低的盘中水平。与此同时，华尔街多家银行对美元将 进一步走软的预期正在升温，理由包括美联储即将降息、经济增长放缓、以及美国总统特朗普的贸易与 税收政策带来的影响。 摩根士丹利表示，到明年年中，美元将跌至大流行期间的水平。摩根大通也持续看空美元。高盛则指 出，如果加征关税的政策受阻，白宫方面试图探索其他收入来源的举措可能对美元造成更加严重的打 击。富国银行策略师Aroop Chatterjee直言："我们认为，围绕美元走软的中期叙事正在形成。" 美元空头仓位接近2023年以来最高 摩根士丹利全球宏观策略主管Matthew Hornbach周一表示："美国以外的投资者正在重新审视他们在美 国的资产配置，同时也在重新评估与这些资产相关的美元敞口。他们提高了对冲比率，这是未来12个月 内将给美元带来下行压力的因素之一。"该行预测，美元指数(DXY)将在明年6月左右下跌约9%，跌至 91点。 以Meera Chandan为首的摩根大通策略师重申了对美元的负面看法，并 ...

May 27, 2025 10:12 PM GMT Global Macro Commentary | Global May 27 Sharp super-long JGB rally amid speculation for lower long-end issuance; positive EU and US trade developments support US assets; USTs bull-flatten; miss in France CPI; LatAm currencies outperform; Fed's Barkin warns of effects of uncertainty; DXY at 99.58 (0.5%); US 10y at 4.444% (-6.7bp) Please refer to our recent publications and collaborations (Euro Area Rates Strategy: More Room to Go; Hong Kong Macro Strategy, Economics, Property & Bank ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The report focuses on the thematic and sustainability investment landscape in Asia, particularly in China and Japan, highlighting investor interests and regulatory changes impacting these markets [1][2][7]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Investor Interest in Thematic and Sustainability Topics**: There is a strong interest among investors in China and Japan regarding thematic and sustainability investments, with discussions held with over 15 investors in Shanghai and Tokyo [1][7]. 2. **Impact of AMAC Guidance**: The new guidance from the Asset Management Association of China (AMAC) mandates shareholders with over 5% ownership to actively exercise their voting rights, which is seen as a long-term positive for corporate governance in China [7][8]. 3. **Governance Trends in Asia**: The governance theme is gaining traction in China, with lessons from Japan and Korea suggesting that increased global investor engagement could lead to higher valuations [7][9][17]. 4. **US-China Tensions and Sustainability**: Investors are keenly interested in the implications of US-China tensions, particularly regarding carbon markets and regulatory changes in Europe that may affect sustainability investments [7][8]. 5. **Sustainability and Thematic Investing Overlap**: The convergence of sustainability and thematic investing is significant, with a focus on diverse Asia-centric themes, including AI, energy transition, and health care [24][29]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Corporate Governance in China**: The AMAC's guidance outlines 13 matters where voting rights should be actively exercised, which includes issues related to shareholder rights, director elections, and environmental responsibilities [11][12][13]. 2. **Reform Momentum in Korea**: There is a noted reform momentum in Korea, with political commitment to governance reform, which is expected to be an inflection point for the market [23]. 3. **US Tariffs and Clean Tech**: The impact of US tariffs on sustainability and clean technology is under scrutiny, with potential implications for the pace of the US energy transition due to reliance on China for critical minerals [29][35]. 4. **EU Regulations and CBAM**: The incoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is set to start in 2026, which will drive interest in carbon capture technologies, particularly in the cement industry [39][42]. 5. **Defense Sector Exclusions**: There is a trend of easing defense sector exclusions among sustainability funds, indicating a shift in investment strategies in response to changing geopolitical dynamics [39][40]. This summary encapsulates the key themes and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current landscape in thematic and sustainability investments in Asia, particularly focusing on China and Japan.

华尔街巨头警告，美元指数未来一年将跌9%。 据报道，摩根士丹利策略师团队在最新报告中预测，美元将在明年年中跌至新冠疫情期间的低位水平。 该行预计，美元指数将在未来一年内下跌约9%，跌至91附近，主要驱动因素是美联储的降息周期和经济放缓。 以Matthew Hornbach为首的策略师团队在5月31日的研究报告中指出： "我们认为利率和货币市场已经开启了可持续的重大趋势——在经历了两年的宽幅区间震荡交易后，美元将大幅走低，收益率曲线将显 著变陡。" 大摩还在报告中表示，欧元、日元、瑞郎将成为美元走软的最大受益者。 周一，美元对一篮子货币走低，美元指数下跌超0.7%，最低触及98.68，似乎也印证了市场对美元前景的谨慎态度。与此同时，欧元升至一个月高 位，英镑来到1.3550，美元/日元跌至142.80附近。 值得注意的是，摩根士丹利的分析报告呼应了市场上质疑美元前景的声音。 摩根大通策略师团队在上周也向投资者表达了对美元的看空立场，转而建议投资者将资金配置到日元、欧元和澳元等货币上。 "央行降息+经济放缓"，美元将走软 根据大摩的预测，美联储将在未来实施175个基点的降息，这将对美元构成重大压力。 该行预计，1 ...

高盛的逻辑关键在于时间节点。该行预计OPEC+在7月6日决定8月产量水平时，"预期的需求放缓不太 可能急剧到足以阻止增产"。但从9月开始情况将发生变化。届时，OPEC+将保持供应配额稳定， OPEC+以外的产量将增加，全球经济增长将在第三季度放缓。 摩根士丹利预见"三重打击"：连续增产将压低油价 与高盛的谨慎乐观形成对比，摩根士丹利描绘了一幅更为悲观的图景。 OPEC+在周末意外宣布第四轮连续增产后，华尔街两大投行对后市增产展望产生了严重分歧。 摩根士丹利分析师团队认为，OPEC+将在未来三个月内继续推进每月41.1万桶/日的增产步伐，其认为 配额增长与实际产量增长之间存在显著"脱节"。高盛则押注"一次性收官"，认为OPEC+只会在8月份再 进行一轮增产，随后便会暂停。 上周六，OPEC+决定自7月起日均增产41.1万桶，规模持平前两次增产。这也是OPEC+连续第四个月宣 布增产，该组织从今年4月起每月宣布增产，以回撤2023年宣布的自愿减产措施。 高盛押注"一次性收官" 高盛分析师Daan Struyven等人在最新研报中指出了增产的三个支撑因素：相对紧张的现货石油基本面、 强劲的全球经济活动数据，以及夏季 ...