Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the market is overly focused on Pop Mart's high-frequency sales data in the North American market, significantly underestimating the company's true value [1] Group 1: North American Sales Expectations - The widely circulated credit card consumption data suggests that Pop Mart's North American sales in 2025 will be around 6 billion RMB, with a projected decline of 25-30% in Q4 compared to Q3 [2] - Morgan Stanley's analysis predicts that Pop Mart's North American sales in 2025 will be 7.1 billion RMB, with Q4 sales remaining close to Q3 levels [2] - The firm estimates that the average annual sales per store in North America will reach 45-50 million RMB, indicating strong demand as new stores can recover their investment in 1-2 months [2] Group 2: Online and Offline Sales Dynamics - In the first half of the year, online sales accounted for approximately 60% of Pop Mart's North American market, driven further to 60-70% in Q3 due to Labubu pre-sales [3] - Offline sales have a more diverse IP distribution compared to online channels, enhancing opportunities for new IP exploration and cross-selling [3] - The experience in China and the Asia-Pacific region shows that physical stores are essential for cultivating repeat customers, who exhibit more stable purchasing behavior than social media-influenced consumers [3] Group 3: Growth Drivers and IP Diversification - Morgan Stanley highlights that the market is overlooking Pop Mart's sales of older Labubu plush toys in the second half of 2025, with more new products expected in 2026 [4] - The firm identifies the restoration of quarter-on-quarter growth and evidence of IP diversification as key catalysts for improving market sentiment [5] - The company is expected to accelerate growth in Q2 and Q3 of 2026, driven by continuous store openings, new customer acquisition, and product launches [5] Group 4: Long-term Investment Logic - Pop Mart is positioned to capture the growing demand for "kidult" IP products globally, evolving into a global IP collectibles platform [6] - The company's business model is asset-light with high ROE, aiming for long-term high-quality returns while leading the global kidult trend [6] - At the current valuation, Pop Mart trades at approximately 16 times the 2026 P/E ratio, with a 21% profit growth expectation, potentially dropping to 12 times if sales reach 60 billion RMB [6]

Core Viewpoint - The availability of Labubu blind box products has improved on platforms like Tmall and Douyin, although some items remain out of stock, indicating a mixed supply situation across different channels and product lines [3][7]. Supply Situation - Consumers have reported that previously hard-to-find Labubu products are now more accessible, with some items still facing stock shortages [3][7]. - The "Labubu Frontline High Energy Series" remains largely out of stock on major online channels, while the "Labubu Heart Code Series" is available for purchase [3][7]. - Official customer service from Pop Mart confirmed recent restocking efforts but noted that restocking times are random and quantities are not disclosed, suggesting uncertainty in future availability [3][7]. Secondary Market Trends - Recent reports indicate that the secondary market for Labubu products has seen significant price drops, with the average price of the "Labubu Sit Party Rubber Plush Series" falling from 1478 yuan to approximately 632 yuan, nearing its original price of 594 yuan [4][8]. - The "Labubu 3.0 Frontline High Energy Series" experienced a price surge to 2500 yuan upon release, but has since seen a decline, with recent average transaction prices around 518 yuan, below the official price [4][8].

Group 1 - Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Jae-Yong visited the JD MALL in Beijing and reportedly purchased 100 Labubu figures, which sparked significant online discussion [1] - Samsung later clarified that Lee's visit was solely for market inspection and that no purchases were made [1] - Pop Mart representatives stated they were unaware of the reported purchase and confirmed that their brand is not present in the JD MALL Beijing store [1] Group 2 - The JD MALL store features various Pop Mart IP products, including Starry People, DIMOO, and THE MONSTERS, sold at a premium of 2-3 times the original price [1]

Core Insights - The report from Citibank analysts indicates that the hype surrounding Pop Mart's Labubu may have reached a peak before the next potential hit emerges [1] - Pop Mart is shifting its focus towards generating sustained value from its intellectual property (IP) [1] - Analysts suggest that the company is developing a new path for its IP, emphasizing aesthetic appeal and emotional connection rather than narrative and functionality [1] Growth Potential - The company is expected to continue leading structural emotional consumption and the "big kid" trend globally [1] - Besides Labubu, other iconic IPs, including Twinkle Twinkle, are becoming new growth engines for Pop Mart [1] - It is anticipated that Pop Mart will have 5 to 10 top-performing IPs to support steady growth [1] Stock Performance - Pop Mart's stock price closed up 1.7% at HKD 199.50 on the last trading day [1]

新浪科技讯 1月6日晚间消息，近日，有媒体报道称三星电子会长李在镕在参加中韩商务论坛后，在京 东MALL双井店进行考察，并购买了总计100只Labubu，相关话题迅速冲至热搜。随后，三星方面表示 李在镕此行仅为市场视察，未购买任何商品。 新浪科技讯 1月6日晚间消息，近日，有媒体报道称三星电子会长李在镕在参加中韩商务论坛后，在京 东MALL双井店进行考察，并购买了总计100只Labubu，相关话题迅速冲至热搜。随后，三星方面表示 李在镕此行仅为市场视察，未购买任何商品。 对此，泡泡玛特相关工作人员表示，"还未了解购买100个Labubu的具体情况，但品牌并未入驻京东 MALL双井店。" 责任编辑：何俊熹 对此，泡泡玛特相关工作人员表示，"还未了解购买100个Labubu的具体情况，但品牌并未入驻京东 MALL双井店。" 责任编辑：何俊熹 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report by Bernstein predicts a significant decline in Bubble Mart's stock price due to potential sales drop and consumer interest decline in LABUBU, which they believe could lead to a vicious cycle affecting profitability and market performance [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Bernstein's conclusion about Bubble Mart's bubble is criticized as being overly simplistic and based on a misunderstanding of consumer behavior, as many buyers genuinely desire LABUBU products [2]. - The report misinterprets the importance of scarcity in Bubble Mart's business model, which relies more on market penetration than on artificial scarcity [3]. - The comparison to Beanie Babies is deemed inappropriate, as the consumer base and business models of Bubble Mart and Beanie Babies are fundamentally different [3]. Group 2: Business Model and Strategy - Bubble Mart's strategy focuses on direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales, which allows for better control over pricing and distribution, contrasting with traditional models that rely on multiple layers of distribution [13]. - The company has successfully cultivated multiple IPs, with LABUBU becoming a leading product in just five years, showcasing its efficiency in creating popular items [8]. - The product strategy is clearly divided into regular and limited edition items, catering to different consumer segments and enhancing brand loyalty [5]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - A significant portion of Bubble Mart's consumers purchase products for emotional satisfaction and design rather than for investment purposes, indicating a healthier consumer base [5]. - The decline in search interest for LABUBU is interpreted as a sign of consumer transition from searching to purchasing, reflecting a solid user base with high repurchase rates [11]. - The operational adjustments made by Bubble Mart, such as optimizing store experiences, are aimed at enhancing customer satisfaction rather than indicating a decline in demand [11]. Group 4: Stock Performance and Market Perception - The recent stock price drop of 40% is attributed to broader market factors rather than a direct reflection of Bubble Mart's operational health [14]. - The market's tendency to apply traditional valuation metrics to a new business model like Bubble Mart's is seen as a misunderstanding of the company's unique value proposition [12][15]. - Historical parallels are drawn between Bubble Mart and Tesla, suggesting that misjudgments by analysts could lead to significant market opportunities for the company [16].

摩根士丹利发布研报称，预计泡泡玛特(09992)在美国的销售增长将更具韧性，集团的整体销售表现亦 将超出市场预期。重申泡泡玛特为首选股，予目标价325港元，评级为"增持" 大摩表示，进入2026年，相信市场焦点可能会由美国市场与Labubu产品转向集团整体发展动力。虽然 泡泡玛特的北美市场需有更多投入以释放长期潜力，但其在中国及亚洲的地位将成为集团2026年增长的 基石。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，预计泡泡玛特(09992)在美国的销售增长将更具韧性，集团 的整体销售表现亦将超出市场预期。重申泡泡玛特为首选股，予目标价325港元，评级为"增持" 大摩表示，进入2026年，相信市场焦点可能会由美国市场与Labubu产品转向集团整体发展动力。虽然 泡泡玛特的北美市场需有更多投入以释放长期潜力，但其在中国及亚洲的地位将成为集团2026年增长的 基石。 ...

摩根士丹利发表研究报告，预计泡泡玛特在美国的销售增长将更具韧性，集团的整体销售表现亦将超出 市场预期。踏入2026年，该行相信市场焦点或会由美国市场与Labubu产品转向集团整体发展动力。大 摩表示，虽然泡泡玛特的北美市场需有更多投入以释放长期潜力，但其在中国及亚洲的地位将成为集团 2026年增长的基石。该行重申泡泡玛特为首选股，予目标价325港元，评级"增持"。 ...

Core Insights - Pop Mart has launched a cooperative production base in Mexico to meet the strong demand for trendy toys in the rapidly growing North American market [1][2] - The company has expanded its supply network by partnering with production facilities in Mexico, Cambodia, and Indonesia, as it does not own any factories [1][2] - Since the Labubu doll became a global phenomenon last year, Pop Mart has been increasing its production capacity to address the soaring demand across China, Japan, the United States, and Southeast Asia, leading to frequent stock shortages in physical stores and rising resale prices [1][2] - As one of the few Chinese brands gaining global consumer popularity, Pop Mart is significantly investing in the U.S. market, planning to double the number of its stores in the country this year, currently operating around 60 stores and 100 "roboshop" vending machines [1][2] - Concerns regarding the sustainability of Labubu's popularity have suppressed Pop Mart's stock price in Hong Kong, which has declined approximately 40% since reaching a record high in August of last year [1][2]