Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The strong demand for AI is expected to drive price increases for TSMC's advanced process technology from 2026 to 2029, indicating a trend of continuous supply shortages globally [3][4] - Domestic demand for advanced logic chips is anticipated to rise rapidly, with significant growth in both demand and supply expected during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [5] - Recent capital market activities by SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor suggest improvements in profitability and advancements in advanced logic processes [6] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - TSMC's N2 node is set to begin mass production in Q4 2025, with initial monthly capacity of approximately 35,000 wafers, expected to increase to 140,000 wafers by the end of 2026, surpassing previous market estimates [4] - The demand for advanced processes remains tight despite the early ramp-up of U.S. wafer fabs and the unexpected capacity of 2nm technology [4] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The import scale of core semiconductor equipment in Shanghai reached approximately 55.8 billion yuan from January to November 2025, a 41% increase compared to 2024, indicating a favorable expansion pace [5] - The trend of "China for China" in advanced process foundries is expected to gain momentum as domestic technology matures [5] Capital Market Activities - SMIC's acquisition of the remaining 49% stake in SMIC North is expected to enhance profit margins, with a projected 19% increase in net profit for the first eight months of 2025 [6] - Hua Hong's acquisition of Hua Li Micro is anticipated to improve revenue by 30% and net profit by 269% for the same period [6] Investment Recommendations - The semiconductor equipment and foundry sectors are expected to benefit from the growth in advanced process demand, with recommended stocks including SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and others [7]

Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant push towards localization, with numerous companies planning to build factories by 2025 to meet the rising demand for advanced technologies such as AI chips and advanced memory [1] - Investment sources include both industry and government, focusing on addressing current technological challenges and expanding capabilities in various sectors [1] Regional Developments Asia - TSMC is constructing six new fabs and advanced packaging plants in Taiwan, while ASE is investing $578.6 million in Kaohsiung for an advanced packaging facility [2] - SK Hynix's total investment in the Yongin industrial cluster may reach 600 trillion KRW (approximately $407 billion) [2] - Micron is building an advanced memory manufacturing plant in Japan with government support, and Rapidus has completed a prototype of a 2nm GAA process [2] - India has approved four new fabs, including SicSem's facility in Odisha [2] Europe - The EU launched five pilot production lines under the Chips Act, targeting 2nm, advanced packaging, and photonics [3] - The Czech semiconductor center received €450 million in funding for ON Semiconductor's SiC power device factory [3] - Germany is providing significant financial support for Infineon's and GlobalFoundries' factory expansions in Dresden [3] - imec has opened an automotive chip center in Heilbronn, Germany, and launched an advanced chip design accelerator project [3] Americas - TSMC has increased its investment in the U.S. to $100 billion, while Apple is investing $500 billion and GlobalFoundries $16 billion [4] - Micron plans to invest an additional $30 billion in U.S. fabs, including new facilities in Idaho and Virginia [4] - Texas Instruments has opened a new advanced 300mm fab in Sherman, Texas, as part of a $60 billion investment plan [4] Challenges and Uncertainties - Several companies, including NXP and Intel, are facing challenges with factory closures and project cancellations due to market volatility [5] - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Chips Act and its implications for funding and investment strategies is causing concern among industry leaders [6][7] Material and Energy Concerns - The semiconductor industry is facing strategic challenges related to the supply of rare earth materials, emphasizing the need for diversification and domestic resource development [10] - The energy consumption of AI server clusters is rising, with projections indicating that it could account for 7% of global electricity demand by 2025 [11] Future Outlook - The semiconductor industry is poised for growth driven by advancements in AI, quantum technology, and robotics, with significant potential in healthcare and elder care applications [15] - The industry is expected to see substantial investments in new facilities and fabs, reflecting ongoing adjustments to previously announced plans [16]

Key Points The top AI companies use TSMC as their manufacturing foundry. Revenue jumped 40% year over year in the most recent quarter, and the stock rose 53% in 2025. 10 stocks we like better than Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing › Dig into the stock market these days, and one could easily be overwhelmed by the investment options. The New York Stock Exchange includes 2,200 companies, and there are another 3,450 stocks listed on the Nasdaq exchange. Let's add to that number the stocks on the over- ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised its CoWoS capacity forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 8% and 13% respectively, driven by TSMC's capacity expansion and strong demand for TPUs [1][2]. Group 1: CoWoS Capacity Forecasts - TSMC's CoWoS capacity is expected to reach 115,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026, with additional capacity from external suppliers (mainly ASE and Amkor) contributing 12,000 to 15,000 wafers per month [2]. - The capacity increase is primarily due to rising demand from the ASIC supply chain, with TSMC focusing on CoWoS-L technology while CoWoS-S supply remains stable [2]. Group 2: TPU Demand and Shipments - Morgan Stanley has raised its TPU shipment forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to 3.7 million and 5 million units respectively, reflecting strong market demand and TSMC's ongoing capacity expansion [3][4]. - To meet TPU demand, Broadcom's CoWoS wafer allocation has been increased to 230,000 wafers in 2026 and 350,000 wafers in 2027, while MediaTek is expected to receive 18,000 and 55,000 wafers in the same years [5]. Group 3: Key Players and Projects - NVIDIA's CoWoS allocation for 2026 remains at 700,000 wafers, with slight adjustments in product mix due to HBM4 readiness issues [6]. - AMD's CoWoS forecasts remain unchanged at 90,000 and 120,000 wafers for 2026 and 2027, with potential delays in the MI450 project [6]. - AWS's Trainium project has seen a slight reduction in 2026 shipment expectations to 2.1 million units, with lifecycle totals unchanged [7]. Group 4: Outsourcing and Equipment Suppliers - Due to TSMC's capacity constraints, smaller projects are being outsourced to packaging factories, with ASE expected to benefit from various CPU and TPU projects [8]. - Equipment suppliers are projected to see a 20% to 30% increase in equipment shipments in 2026, driven by strong demand for CoWoS, WMCM, and FOCoS technologies [9].

Core Viewpoint - Qualcomm is likely to utilize Samsung's 2nm chip manufacturing process for its next-generation mobile application processors, marking a return to Samsung after years of reliance on TSMC for advanced chip manufacturing [2] Group 1: Qualcomm and Samsung - Qualcomm is in discussions with multiple foundries, including Samsung, for the adoption of cutting-edge 2nm chip manufacturing processes [2] - The majority of Qualcomm's new core chip designs for PCs, smartphones, and AI data centers have been completed, aiming for large-scale manufacturing and commercialization soon [2] - This potential deal signifies Qualcomm's shift from nearly exclusive reliance on TSMC to Samsung's advanced manufacturing capabilities [2] Group 2: TSMC's Market Position - TSMC's stock surged by 6.9%, reaching a historical high, following Goldman Sachs' significant price target increase of 35% to NT$2330, reflecting strong market confidence in AI-related infrastructure demand [3] - TSMC is the largest contract chip manufacturer globally, benefiting from the booming demand for AI GPUs and ASICs, with major clients like NVIDIA and AMD driving increased orders [4] - TSMC's advanced 2nm process is set to begin mass production in Q4 2025, with performance improvements of 10-15% at the same power consumption or a 25-30% reduction in power consumption for the same performance [5] Group 3: Intel's Challenges - Intel is focusing on 1.8nm technology, skipping the 2nm node, and has announced the upcoming release of its Panther Lake platform based on this process [6] - Qualcomm's decision to return to Samsung for mobile processors poses a significant challenge for Intel, which is trying to attract high-profile clients for its advanced manufacturing capabilities [8] - The success of Intel's 18A and 16A technologies is crucial for its recovery, as it seeks to establish itself in the competitive landscape dominated by TSMC and Samsung [8]

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is the leading manufacturer of AI chips, and Intel is not expected to pose a challenge to TSMC in the near future according to J.P. [1] Company Summary - TSMC holds a dominant position in the AI chip market, indicating its strong competitive advantage and market leadership [1] - Intel's current capabilities and strategic direction suggest that it will not be able to compete effectively with TSMC in the AI chip sector in the short term [1]

该媒体援引阿蒙在采访中透露的消息表示，这家智能手机与PC端芯片领军者正在与包括三星电子在内 的多家晶圆代工厂就采用最前沿的大规模2nm芯片制造工艺进行合同代工制造展开磋商；阿蒙表示，高 通面向PC、智能手机甚至AI数据中心的绝大多数新一代核心芯片设计工作已经完成，以便在不久的将 来实现大规模代工以及全面商业化。 相较N3E制程(等同于3nm先进制程)，N2约可实现同功耗下性能+10%到15%，或同性能下功耗缩减 25%~30%，以及晶体管密度+15%~20%(具体取决于芯片架构设计)。 另一芯片制造巨头英特尔，则跳过2nm整数制程，聚焦于1.8nm级别制程(即18A)。英特尔表示，18A已 经从"制程节点承诺"走到"终端产品发布与量产爬坡"，而14A仍在研发与路线图/客户导入阶段。英特尔 在CES2026重磅发布/展示了基于18A制程打造的Panther Lake(Core Ultra Series3)，并将其作为18A的"首 批产品平台"对外确认。18A的关键工艺特征，即GAA/RibbonFET+背面供电PowerVia，也作为该代产品 与制程卖点被媒体与英特尔官方材料同步强调，但是具体的生产良率指标仍未 ...

Core Insights - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) shares reached a 52-week high of $333.08, closing at $327.43, with a 57.9% increase over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's 25.3% gain [1][6] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, TSMC's revenues increased by 41% year-over-year to $33.1 billion, and earnings per share (EPS) rose by 39% to $2.92, driven by demand for advanced 3nm and 5nm nodes, which now represent 60% of total wafer sales [11] - TSMC raised its revenue growth guidance for full-year 2025 to a mid-30% range, up from the previous estimate of around 30%, with analysts projecting a 20.8% revenue increase and a 20% EPS increase for 2026 [12] Market Position and Demand - TSMC is benefiting from the AI boom, manufacturing advanced chips for major clients like NVIDIA, Broadcom, and Marvell, with AI-related chip sales expected to contribute approximately 30% of total revenues by 2025, up from mid-teens in 2024 [2][8] - The company is the leading player in the global chip foundry market, with significant demand for its advanced manufacturing processes [7] Investment and Growth Strategy - TSMC plans to invest between $40 billion and $42 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, focusing 70% of this spending on advanced manufacturing processes to maintain its competitive edge [9][10] Competitive Landscape - TSMC's stock performance has outpaced peers like Broadcom and NVIDIA, which saw increases of 50.3% and 34% respectively, while Marvell Technology's stock declined by 25.3% [3] Valuation and Market Sentiment - TSMC's stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 26.74, higher than the sector average of 23.19, but lower than Broadcom, NVIDIA, and Marvell [16][20] - Investor confidence in TSMC's long-term prospects remains strong despite market volatility and geopolitical risks [6] Risks and Challenges - Near-term risks include softness in PC and smartphone markets, which may limit growth despite rising AI demand [13] - The company's global expansion strategy, including new fabs in the U.S., Japan, and Germany, may lead to higher costs and lower gross margins in the short term [14] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly U.S.-China relations, pose strategic risks due to TSMC's revenue exposure to China [15]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised its forecast for Google's TPU chip shipments for 2026 and 2027, expecting shipments to reach 3.7 million and 5 million units respectively, driven by TSMC's expanding CoWoS packaging capacity and strong market demand [1][3]. Group 1: Capacity Forecast Adjustments - Morgan Stanley has increased its CoWoS capacity forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 8% and 13% respectively, reflecting TSMC's new capacity construction in the second half of 2026 and 2027 [1][3]. - TSMC's CoWoS capacity is expected to reach 115,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026, with external suppliers providing an additional 12,000 to 15,000 wafers per month [1][3]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - The increase in capacity is primarily driven by rising demand from the ASIC supply chain [1][3]. - The main shipments for 2026-2027 will come from TPU v7 (Ironwood) and v8 series (Broadcom's AX version and MediaTek's X version) [3]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - NVIDIA's CoWoS allocation for 2026 remains at 700,000 wafers, with slight adjustments in product mix due to HBM4 readiness issues [4]. - AMD's CoWoS forecast remains unchanged at 90,000 and 120,000 wafers for 2026 and 2027, respectively, with potential delays in the MI450 project [4]. - AWS's Trainium project has seen a slight reduction in expected shipments for 2026, now projected at 2.1 million units [5]. Group 4: Outsourcing Trends - The outsourcing ratio for packaging has increased, benefiting equipment suppliers [6][7]. - TSMC will focus on key GPU and AI ASIC projects, leaving smaller projects to packaging houses like ASE and Amkor [7]. - Equipment suppliers are expected to see a year-on-year increase in demand for CoWoS, with new capacity projected to grow by 40,000 to 50,000 wafers per month [7].

智通财经APP获悉，有媒体援引美国高通公司首席执行官克里斯蒂亚诺·阿蒙(Cristiano Amon)的话报道 称，高通(QCOM.US)很可能将使用三星电子的2nm级别芯片代工工艺来制造其下一代移动应用处理器。 高通过去几年在领先制程上"几乎完全依赖台积电"，而此次若把下一代移动AP的一部分先进节点订单 转向三星2nm，意味着高通在"最核心、最量大的手机SoC"上启动双供应链策略或者分散化，会在份额 与议价权层面对台积电形成轻微压力，但是对于台积电基本面增长前景无任何重大扰动。 台积电与英特尔的先进芯片制程布局 该媒体援引阿蒙在采访中透露的消息表示，这家智能手机与PC端芯片领军者正在与包括三星电子在内 的多家晶圆代工厂就采用最前沿的2nm芯片制造品工艺进行合同代工制造展开磋商;阿蒙表示，高通面 向OC、智能手机甚至数据中心的绝大多数新一代核心芯片设计工作已经完成，以便在不久的将来实现 大规模代工以及全面商业化。 有着"全球芯片代工之王"称号的台积电方面同样全面聚焦于2nm及以下这一最先进芯片制程产能，该公 司在其官网制程介绍中明确写到：2nm(N2)"已于2025年第四季度(4Q25)按计划开始量产"，并强 ...