Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of core values such as excellence, integrity, transparency, and respect for long-term success in the investment sector [1]. Group 1 - The author identifies as a full-time investor with a strong focus on the tech sector and holds a Bachelor of Commerce Degree with Distinction, majoring in Finance [1]. - The author is a lifetime member of the Beta Gamma Sigma International Business Honor Society, indicating a commitment to academic excellence [1]. - The article invites readers to provide constructive criticism and feedback to enhance the quality of future work [1]. Group 2 - The author discloses having no stock, option, or similar derivative positions in any mentioned companies and has no plans to initiate such positions within the next 72 hours [1]. - The article expresses the author's personal opinions and states that no compensation is received for the article, except from Seeking Alpha [1].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC has been identified as the largest "risk" factor in the global AI supply chain due to its conservative early predictions regarding AI demand, despite its dominant position in the semiconductor foundry sector [1] Group 1: TSMC's Position and Challenges - TSMC's CEO has shown caution towards large-scale construction, leading to insufficient early investments and resulting in a severe supply shortage [2] - The impact of capacity bottlenecks has spread from chip manufacturers to downstream hyperscalers, with companies like Nvidia and AMD facing extended delivery cycles [2] - Major tech companies such as Microsoft, Google, and Meta are currently unable to secure guaranteed delivery schedules, with Microsoft's Maia 200 AI chip facing significant supply constraints [2] Group 2: Financial Implications and Production Capacity - Analysts warn that the current risks could translate into revenue losses amounting to billions of dollars for hyperscale operators [2] - In addition to wafer manufacturing, the shortage of advanced packaging capacity is another critical issue, with TSMC's CoWoS technology being the preferred solution for AI chip manufacturing [2] - TSMC plans to increase capital expenditures to $56 billion this year to alleviate pressure, but it is unlikely to meet the surging market demand in the short term [2] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Intel Foundry and Samsung are attempting to enter the AI chip manufacturing space, but manufacturers remain hesitant to switch from TSMC due to the irreplaceable supply chain ecosystem and trust established by TSMC [4]

January 27, 2026 10:15 PM GMT Asia-Pacific Technology | Asia Pacific AI Supply Chain: TPU/ASIC updates; ICMS NAND demand calculation We sense that AI semi vendors have started securing critical 2027 components – T-Glass/ABF, HBM, and TSMC 3nm – (e.g., MediaTek's 3nm TPU). Downgrade Egis to EW, as its 2026 appears to be shaping up as a year of transition. ASIC – Volume upside for MediaTek's 3nm TPU project in 2027: In our Target Price Up report, we highlighted the supply chain's bull case of 6-7mn TPU units ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 28 日 星期三 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、桥水基金创始人达利欧警告：美国就像一个火药桶，内战一触即发。美国已经 | | | | | 深深陷入第五阶段—"崩溃前阶段"，其特点是糟糕的金融状况和内部冲突。并且 | | | | | 有摇摇欲坠地进入第六阶段的风险，其标志是现有秩序通过内战或革命而崩溃。 | | | | | 2、数据显示，新兴市场股票和债券 ETF 合计录得 68.3 亿美元资金流入，尽管较前 | | | | | 一周略有回落，但已连续第 14 周实现净流入。中国相关 ETF 仍是资金最青睐的方 | | | | | 向，当周流入中国市场的资金达到 16.5 亿美元。 | | | | ...

需求端：资本开支延续高增态势。1)海外：2025年三季度海外大厂资本开支延续高增态势，总和达 996.17亿美元，同比增80.39%，环比升9.54%。2)国内：2025年第三季度阿里、腾讯资本开支均显放 缓。2025年第三季度，阿里资本开支315亿元，同比增80.10%但环比降18.55%。公司在2025年三季度业 绩会上重申三年3800亿元投资框架，不排除进一步增投。腾讯资本开支130亿元，同比降24.05%、环比 降32.05%，下调全年指引，开支低于年初预期。 爱建证券近日发布数据中心供配电设备行业跟踪：海外：2025年三季度海外大厂资本开支延续高增态 势，总和达996.17亿美元，同比增80.39%，环比升9.54%。国内：2025年第三季度阿里、腾讯资本开支 均显放缓。2025年第三季度，阿里资本开支315亿元，同比增80.10%但环比降18.55%。公司在2025年三 季度业绩会上重申三年3800亿元投资框架，不排除进一步增投。腾讯资本开支130亿元，同比降 24.05%、环比降32.05%，下调全年指引，开支低于年初预期。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点： 数据中心已成为电力设备行业核心增量应 ...

继苹果之后，英伟达也计划将部分芯片制造业务转向英特尔代工。英伟达预计在2028年推出的Feynman 架构平台将与英特尔合作，这是美国科技巨头在特朗普政府推动"美国制造"目标下调整供应链策略的最 新案例。 据DIGITIMES周三报道，供应链人士透露，英伟达将在与英特尔的合作中采用"量少、低阶、非核 心"的合作策略。GPU核心芯片仍由台积电代工，而I/O芯片则部分采用英特尔18A或预定2028年量产的 14A制程，最后由英特尔EMIB进行先进封装。按先进封装比重计算，英特尔最高约占25%，台积电约 占75%。 这一转变反映出美国科技企业在政治压力、关税威胁和供应链韧性考量下，不得不从高度集中于台积电 的模式转向"多源供应、分散风险"的新策略。除英伟达和苹果外，谷歌、微软、AWS、高通、博通、 超微和特斯拉等企业也在与英特尔洽谈合作。 尽管部分订单分流至英特尔，但业界认为这对台积电"利远大于弊"，有助于降低垄断疑虑、释放政治压 力，同时台积电仍有信心稳固高阶芯片代工大单。 台积电三层战略应对客户分流 目前观察，苹果、英伟达都以代工风险最低的产品渐进式调整。与英特尔洽谈合作的还有谷歌、微软、 AWS、高通、博通、 ...

How do you play the memory boom without chasing these data storage stocks. The four big players in the space, Micron, Western Digital, Seagate just reported, and Sandis, each more than tripled last year, and they keep running in 2026. Just since the beginning of the year, SanDisk has more than double.The other three are up anywhere from 35 to 50%. I don't want to chase those. I don't chase the storage memory place because even though there's a severe shortage of this stuff thanks to the data center buildout ...

加密货币全线上涨，比特币重回89000美元上方。 周二（1月27日），美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，科技股表现强劲带动纳指和标普上涨。截至收盘，道指跌0.83%报49003.41点，标普500指数涨0.41%报 6978.6点，纳指涨0.91%报23817.1点。 | 道琼斯工业 | 纳斯达克指数 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 49003.41 | 23817.10 | 6978.60 | | -408.99 -0.83% +215.74 +0.91% +28.37 +0.41% | | | | 纳斯达克100 | 中国金龙 | 中概股100 | | 25939.74 | 7866.61 | 2926.65 | | +226.53 +0.88% +37.65 +0.48% +10.58 +0.36% | | | | 美国科技七巨头 中概科技龙头 CBOE波动率 | | | | 66893.16 | 4430.95 | 16.15 | | +737.38 +1.11% +33.04 +0.75% +0.06 +0.37% | | | 科技七巨头中六家上涨，英伟达、苹果涨超1%，微软 ...

The Nasdaq led US stock futures higher on Wednesday as AI trade fervor spread ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision and earnings from megacap techs. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) climbed about 0.9%, while those on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) hovered below the flat line. S&P 500 futures (ES=F) moved up 0.3% on the heels of an all-time closing high. Techs are set to buoy markets again as a surprise record surge in orders for ASML's (ASML) chipmaking machines sto ...

If there was one semiconductor stock that I've truly regretted not adding a lot more into my personal portfolio, it has got to be Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited ( TSMJR Research is an opportunistic investor. I was recognized by TipRanks as a Top Analyst, and also by Seeking Alpha as a "Top Analyst To Follow" for Technology, Software, and Internet, as well as for Growth and GARP. I identify attractive risk/reward opportunities supported by robust price action to potentially generate alpha ...