2025.10. 22 国台办新闻发言人朱凤莲表示，主管部门此前已经就稀土出口管制事项明确表态。大陆高科技产业迅 猛发展，新产业新业态不断涌现，为两岸人工智能等前沿领域合作奠定了良好的基础、创造了广阔的 空间。半导体产业作为台湾的优势产业，本可以通过加强两岸合作实现更好发展，现在却被民进党当 局作为谋取政治私利的筹码被不断"献祭"。岛内舆论反映的是台湾产业界和民众的共识，民进党当 局"卖台"无底线、"倚美"没前途，不得人心；与大陆相向而行，深化两岸融合发展、携手共同抵御外 部风险挑战，才是正道。 微信编辑 | 苏小 本文字数：448，阅读时长大约1分钟 第一财经持续追踪财经热点。若您掌握公司动态、行业趋势、金融事件等有价值的线索，欢迎提供。 专 用 邮 箱 ： bianjibu@yicai.com 来源 | 参考消息 （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） 10月22日上午，国台办举行例行新闻发布会，《参考消息》记者问道，台积电董事长魏哲家称，将 加速美国亚利桑那州工厂产能扩张及技术升级。但有外媒指出，该厂的稀土库存仅够维持30天，若 无法获得大陆稀土供应，产能将瘫痪。有岛内舆论认为，两岸应在高科 ...

Core Insights - Wedgewood Partners' third-quarter 2025 investor letter indicates that AI stocks remain a focal point for Wall Street, with the Wedgewood Composite's net return at 5.9%, underperforming the S&P's 8.1% and the Russell 1000 Growth Index's 10.5% [1][2] Company Performance - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE:TSM) reported a one-month return of 4.92% and a 52-week gain of 46.62%, closing at $294.51 per share with a market capitalization of $1.527 trillion on October 21, 2025 [2][3] - Approximately 60% of TSM's revenue comes from manufacturing AI and high-performance computing chips for major clients like Nvidia, Apple, and Amazon, highlighting its critical role in the semiconductor industry [3] Investment Positioning - TSM has been a significant contributor to Wedgewood's performance in recent quarters, leading to a re-rating of its stock, which exceeded the firm's 10% maximum portfolio weight, prompting a slight trimming of positions [3] - TSM ranks 9th among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 187 hedge fund portfolios holding its shares at the end of the second quarter, indicating strong institutional interest [4]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is advancing to the next generation of semiconductor manufacturing with a focus on 2nm and below processes, opting for cost-effective solutions like photomask pellicles instead of investing in expensive High-NA EUV equipment [1][2][4]. Group 1: Technology and Production Plans - TSMC's 2nm wafers are expected to enter mass production by the end of 2025, followed by the 1.4nm node around 2028, with an investment of NT$1.5 trillion (approximately $49 billion) [1]. - The company has initiated R&D for the 1.4nm process at its Hsinchu facility and has procured 30 standard EUV machines to meet demand from clients like Apple [2][4]. - TSMC's A14 process, which is based on second-generation GAA transistors, is projected to achieve a performance improvement of up to 15% at the same power consumption, or a 25% to 30% reduction in power consumption at the same frequency [4][5]. Group 2: Cost Management and Strategic Decisions - TSMC has chosen not to purchase High-NA EUV equipment, which costs up to $400 million per unit, citing that the cost does not justify the benefits [2][4]. - The use of photomask pellicles is seen as a more cost-effective alternative, despite the challenges it presents in terms of increased exposure steps and potential impacts on yield [2][5]. - TSMC's strategy emphasizes maximizing returns on investment by delaying the adoption of High-NA EUV until it can provide meaningful, quantifiable benefits [6]. Group 3: Competitive Positioning - Unlike Intel, which plans to introduce High-NA EUV in its 14A process around 2027-2028, TSMC does not anticipate using this technology in mass production until at least 2030 [6]. - TSMC's approach allows it to maintain predictable yields and performance characteristics without relying on the latest EUV technology [5][6].

Core Insights - The AI semiconductor industry is expected to experience significant growth in 2026, with a shift in investment logic from upstream to downstream infrastructure [2][10] - The bottleneck in AI development has transitioned from chip manufacturing and packaging to downstream components such as data center space, power supply, and cooling systems [2][5] Upstream Capacity No Longer the Sole Bottleneck - Chip manufacturing and packaging have significantly expanded, alleviating previous supply concerns [4] - TSMC reported stronger-than-expected AI demand and a quick ramp-up in CoWoS capacity, indicating flexibility in the supply chain [4] - Despite ongoing tightness in advanced node wafer front-end capacity, AI semiconductors are prioritized over other applications like cryptocurrency ASICs [4] Bottleneck Shift - The current constraints are now focused on data center space, power availability, and supporting infrastructure, which have longer construction cycles than chip manufacturing [6] - The deployment of large-scale GPU clusters presents challenges in power consumption and heat dissipation, leading to a shift towards liquid cooling and high-voltage direct current (HVDC) solutions [6] Storage and Memory - AI workloads demand high-speed data storage and access, with companies like Meta opting for QLC NAND flash for cost efficiency [8] - The global demand for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is projected to surge, with NVIDIA expected to consume 54% of the total HBM by 2026 [8] Racks and Networking - OCP has introduced standardized blueprints for "AI Open Data Centers" and "AI Open Cluster Designs" to facilitate large-scale deployments [9] - Companies like Alibaba are focusing on pluggable optics for their cost-effectiveness and flexibility, while new technologies like CPO/NPO are gaining attention [9] Demand Forecast Indicates Explosive Growth for Downstream Components - Global cloud service capital expenditure is expected to grow by 31% in 2026, reaching $582 billion, significantly exceeding market expectations [11] - AI server capital expenditure could see approximately 70% year-over-year growth if its share in overall capital spending increases [11] AI Chip Demand Breakdown - NVIDIA is projected to dominate the CoWoS capacity consumption with a 59% share, followed by Broadcom, AMD, and AWS [12] - In AI computing wafer consumption, NVIDIA leads with a 55% share, followed by Google, AMD, and AWS [12] Investment Focus Shift - The signals from the OCP conference and industry data indicate a new direction for AI hardware investment, emphasizing the importance of downstream infrastructure [13] - Investors are encouraged to broaden their focus from individual chip companies to the entire data center ecosystem, identifying key players in power, cooling, storage, memory, and networking [13]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's third-quarter financial results demonstrate strong performance, with a significant year-over-year revenue increase, and the company is expected to maintain its solid future outlook despite potential short-term growth slowdowns [1][5][8]. Financial Performance - TSMC reported third-quarter sales of approximately $33 billion, a substantial year-over-year increase of 41%, exceeding analyst expectations by $1.5 billion [5]. - Advanced technology nodes contributed significantly to revenue, with 3nm chips accounting for 23%, 5nm for 37%, and 7nm for 14%, totaling 74% of wafer revenue [5]. - The gross margin slightly improved to 59.5%, with an operating margin of around 50.6% and a net profit margin of 45.7%, showcasing strong profitability for a capital-intensive manufacturing company [5][6]. - The return on equity (ROE) reached 37.8%, indicating effective management of investor funds [6]. Market Position and Strategy - TSMC is a critical player in the AI sector, with major tech companies relying on its manufacturing capabilities for advanced chips, particularly for AI and data center applications [10][11]. - The company plans to increase capital expenditures to $40-$42 billion by 2025 to strengthen its market position amid rising AI demand [10]. - TSMC's advanced process technologies, including the upcoming 2nm node, are expected to further enhance its competitive edge [12]. Pricing Power and Future Outlook - TSMC is anticipated to raise prices for its advanced processes by 5%-10%, with potential increases for the new 2nm process reaching up to 50%, which could significantly boost profitability [13][14]. - The company is projected to achieve an average sales growth rate of about 30% over the next five years, driven by ongoing demand in the AI sector [18]. Valuation - Based on current assumptions, TSMC's fair stock price is estimated to be around $359 per share, indicating substantial upside potential [19]. Conclusion - The ongoing AI race is expected to benefit TSMC significantly, although there are concerns about market prudence in capital investments [21].

Core Insights - The AI revolution is significantly impacting various industries, with NVIDIA being a prominent player, but other companies like TSMC, Alphabet, and Meta are also crucial in building the AI ecosystem [1][16]. Group 1: TSMC - TSMC is the largest contract chip manufacturer globally, focusing on producing chips for major clients like Apple, NVIDIA, and AMD [2]. - In 2024, TSMC achieved a record revenue of NT$2,894.31 billion (US$94.5 billion), marking a 34% year-on-year increase, with further growth expected in 2025 [3]. - The company plans to invest US$40 billion to US$42 billion in capital expenditures, primarily for 3-nanometre and 2-nanometre production nodes, which are essential for next-generation AI chips [4]. - AI chips constituted 15% of TSMC's revenue in 2024, projected to rise to 50% by 2029, with gross profit margins improving from 54.4% in 2023 to 56.1% in 2024 [4][5]. Group 2: Alphabet - AI is integrated into every aspect of Alphabet's business, with its advertising segment generating US$264.6 billion of total revenue in 2024, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth [6][7]. - Google Cloud contributed US$43.2 billion in 2024, a 30.6% increase year-on-year, accounting for approximately 12% of total revenue [8]. - R&D spending increased from US$45.4 billion in 2023 to US$49.3 billion in 2024, although as a percentage of total revenue, it slightly declined from 15% to 14% [9]. Group 3: Meta - Meta utilizes AI to enhance user experiences across platforms like Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, with a focus on content personalization [11]. - The company allocated US$37.3 billion in capital expenditures in 2024, a nearly 38% year-on-year increase, primarily for data centers and network equipment [12]. - Meta's revenue rose 22% year-on-year to US$164.50 billion in 2024, with daily active users increasing from 3.19 billion in 2023 to 3.35 billion in 2024 [13]. - Operating margin expanded to over 42% in 2024, up from under 35% the previous year, and free cash flow increased from US$44 billion to over US$54 billion [14][15]. Group 4: Investment Implications - The AI boom encompasses a broader ecosystem beyond NVIDIA, with TSMC, Alphabet, and Meta playing vital roles in the development and integration of AI technologies [16][18]. - Investing across various layers of the AI ecosystem can provide exposure to long-term growth and resilience in the market [17].

The company provided an update to investors that has implications for several companies in the AI ecosystem.Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 1.07%) produces products for some of the biggest U.S. companies, including Nvidia (NVDA 0.71%), AMD (AMD 1.06%), Apple (AAPL +0.20%), and even Intel (INTC 0.07%).*Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of Oct. 18, 2025. The video was published on Oct. 20, 2025. ...

Core Viewpoint - The spokesperson of the Taiwan Affairs Office criticized TSMC's role in the global supply chain, suggesting that it has become increasingly aligned with U.S. interests, which may harm Taiwan's core industries and the interests of its people [1] Group 1 - TSMC celebrated the production of NVIDIA chips in the U.S., marking a significant milestone for AI chip manufacturing domestically [1] - The spokesperson indicated that TSMC is under pressure from the U.S. and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan, leading to a transformation into what is referred to as "American TSMC" [1] - The DPP's actions are seen as a betrayal of Taiwan's core industries, potentially allowing the U.S. to exert greater control over Taiwan's economic interests [1]

Core Viewpoint - The spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office criticized the Taiwanese authorities for their increasing concessions to the United States, particularly regarding investments in the semiconductor industry, including TSMC and its entire supply chain [1] Group 1: Investment and Collaboration - Taiwan's Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim has committed to investing in the U.S., which includes not only TSMC but also the entire ecosystem of suppliers, designers, and other chip manufacturers [1] - The collaboration will involve partnerships with American companies such as Intel to enhance productivity [1] Group 2: Political Commentary - The spokesperson, Zhu Fenglian, accused the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of being excessively accommodating to the U.S., describing it as "cutting flesh to feed the tiger" and suggesting that the DPP's actions are increasingly clear to the Taiwanese public and industry [1]

据央视新闻，今日，国务院台办举行例行新闻发布会。有记者提问：台湾地区副领导人萧美琴近日称， 已承诺在美国进行投资， 不仅是台 积电，还包括整个生态及其他部分，从供应商到设计商乃至其他芯片制造公司，都将与英特尔等美国公司合作，提升其生产力。对此发言人 有何评论？ 对此，发言人朱凤莲表示， 民进党当局无底线媚美跪美，对美国的巧取豪夺一再妥协退让，先是台积电，然后是整个产业链，终将是割肉 饲虎、欲壑难填。 广大台湾民众和产业界对此看得越来越清楚，越来越痛彻心骨。 ...