Market Overview - Bitcoin is trading around $95,000, reflecting a calmer macro market and renewed interest in artificial intelligence stocks across Asia [1] - Regional equities are rising, nearing record levels, with a focus on semiconductor gains following strong results from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co [1][2] Policy Developments - The US and Taiwan have announced a trade deal that reduces tariffs on various Taiwanese exports, aiming to increase investment in US technology supply chains, which is seen as beneficial for the semiconductor ecosystem [2] - Wall Street experienced gains led by technology and financial shares, indicating sustained risk appetite despite reduced expectations for immediate Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] Bitcoin's Market Role - Bitcoin is transitioning towards a reserve-style asset, moving away from its previous "high-beta" status, with trading firmly between $90,000 and $100,000 [4] - The cryptocurrency is now viewed as a macro hedge against central-bank volatility, with its market dominance stabilizing at 57%-58% as capital flows into neutral reserve assets [4] Currency and Commodity Trends - In Japan, the Nikkei index fell by 0.42% as the yen strengthened, with local political developments being monitored ahead of a potential snap election [5] - Commodities have seen a cooling trend, with oil prices declining and gold and silver prices dipping following geopolitical developments in Iran [6] - Current cryptocurrency prices include Bitcoin at $95,496 (down 0.8%), Ether at $3,301 (down 0.4%), and XRP at $2.08 (down 1.3%), with the total crypto market cap at $3.31 trillion (down 0.3%) [6]

Summary of TSMC Earnings Call and Implications for Japanese SPE Makers Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) - **Industry**: Semiconductor Capital Equipment (SPE) Key Points from the Earnings Call Current Business Environment - TSMC highlighted that AI demand is the primary driver of semiconductor demand growth, with major customers starting to see tangible earnings contributions from AI investments [2][4] - The company revised its 5-year outlook for AI-related sales to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of mid- to high-50%, an increase from the previous mid-40% CAGR forecast [2] Capital Expenditure (Capex) Outlook - TSMC's capex for 2025 is projected at **US$40.9 billion**, with **US$11.5 billion** allocated for the fourth quarter, exceeding the previous guidance of **US$40 billion to US$42 billion** [3] - For 2026, TSMC anticipates capex between **US$52 billion and US$56 billion**, with 70-80% allocated for advanced processes, 10% for specialty processes, and 10-20% for advanced packaging and other applications [3] - The company is accelerating capacity expansion in Taiwan and the US due to strong demand, indicating that cumulative capex over the next three years could significantly exceed the **US$101 billion** invested in the past three years [3] Implications for Japanese SPE Makers - The 2026 capex guidance of **US$52 billion to US$56 billion** surpasses both internal forecasts of **US$46 billion** and investor expectations of around **US$50 billion**, which is seen as positive for various SPE companies, particularly those with high sales exposure to TSMC [4] - Specific recommendations include maintaining Buy ratings on companies such as Ebara, Disco, and Tokyo Electron, which are expected to benefit from the increased capex focused on advanced processes and packaging [4] Additional Important Information - The earnings call reflects a strong outlook for the semiconductor industry, particularly driven by AI demand, which may lead to increased investment opportunities in related sectors [2][4] - The capex figures indicate a robust commitment from TSMC to expand its capabilities, which could have a ripple effect on suppliers and related industries, particularly in Japan [3][4]

TSMC (2330.TW) Earnings Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) - **Ticker**: 2330.TW - **Current Price**: NT$1,690.00 - **12-Month Price Target**: NT$2,600.00 - **Market Capitalization**: NT$43.8 trillion / $1.4 trillion - **Enterprise Value**: NT$41.0 trillion / $1.3 trillion Key Industry Insights - **AI Demand**: TSMC has raised its AI revenue CAGR forecast to mid-to-high 50% from mid-40%, indicating strong long-term growth potential driven by AI applications. The overall revenue CAGR target for 2024-2029 is now approaching 25%, up from 20% previously. The supply-demand imbalance in AI remains unresolved, with leading-edge capacity constrained until at least 2027 [2][19]. Financial Performance Highlights - **4Q25 Results**: - Revenue: NT$1,046.09 billion (US$33.73 billion), up 5.7% QoQ and 20.5% YoY, exceeding guidance and consensus estimates [39]. - Gross Margin (GM): 62.3%, up 280bps QoQ and 330bps YoY, driven by improved cost control and higher utilization rates [39]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): NT$19.50, up 11.8% QoQ and 35.0% YoY, also above consensus [39]. Capital Expenditure (Capex) Outlook - **2026 Capex Guidance**: TSMC is guiding for capex of US$52-56 billion, significantly higher than market expectations of around US$50 billion. This reflects early equipment pull-ins from 2027 and increased infrastructure spending. Capex over the next three years is expected to exceed the US$101 billion spent in the past three years [3][20]. Profitability and Margin Expectations - **Long-term GM Target**: Management has raised the long-term GM target to "56% and higher" from "53% and higher." The expectation is that GM will remain above 60% as a new norm, with forecasts for 2026/27 GM at 63.2%/64.0% compared to 59.9% in 2025 [4][22]. - **Operating Margin (OpM)**: Expected to be in the range of 54-56% for 1Q26, reflecting strong demand and productivity improvements [38]. Growth Drivers - **Advanced Packaging**: This segment is emerging as a second growth engine, with revenue contribution expected to reach 8% in 2025 and over 10% in 2026. The long-term growth rate for advanced packaging is projected to outpace the corporate average over the next five years [23]. Earnings Revisions - Following the strong 4Q25 results, TSMC has revised its EPS forecasts upward for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 2.4%, 10.8%, and 11.6% respectively, reflecting stronger revenue and margin expectations [41]. Conclusion - TSMC's strong performance in 4Q25, coupled with robust guidance for AI-driven growth and significant capex plans, positions the company favorably for continued expansion in the semiconductor industry. The upward revisions in earnings forecasts further underscore the positive outlook for TSMC in the coming years [1][41].

在连续两日回调后，华尔街主要股指周四集体收高。芯片制造商台积电公布强劲财报，提振半导体板块 整体走强；与此同时，摩根士丹利和高盛业绩超出市场预期，推动金融股回暖。能源板块则在国际油价 大幅回落的拖累下走弱。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数上涨292.81点，涨幅0.60%，报49442.44点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨58.27 点，涨幅0.25%，报23530.02点；标普500指数上涨17.87点，涨幅0.26%，报6944.47点。 热门股表现 大型科技股涨跌不一，英伟达涨2.13%，亚马逊涨0.62%，Meta涨0.86%，谷歌A跌0.91%，苹果跌 0.69%，特斯拉跌0.13%，微软跌0.59%。 台积电股价收涨4.5%，此前公司公布再度刷新纪录的季度业绩，利润同比增长35%。该财报重新点燃了 市场对人工智能相关需求韧性的信心。 受此带动，费城半导体指数上涨1.76%，并创下收盘纪录。盘中该指数一度大涨近4%，但在尾盘有所回 吐，科技板块和纳指的涨幅亦相应收窄。 金融板块成为当日另一大支撑力量，摩根士丹利和高盛披露利好业绩，股价分别大涨5.8%和4.6%，双 双创下收盘新高。 高盛披露，第四季度净利润为46 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the challenges faced by Apple as TSMC's largest customer due to the rising demand for advanced packaging capacity from competitors like NVIDIA and AMD, leading to significant increases in foundry prices and a shift in capacity allocation dynamics [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - TSMC's revenue growth reached $122 billion in the previous year, a 36% increase, while NVIDIA's sales are projected to surge by 62% by January 2026 [3] - Apple's product revenue growth is expected to be only 3.6% over the 12 months ending December 2025, indicating a stark contrast to the growth of NVIDIA and AMD [3][4] - The shift in TSMC's customer dynamics suggests that Apple is no longer the primary growth driver for TSMC, a role it held five years ago [3][4] Group 2: Financial Performance - TSMC's gross margin has reached an impressive 62.3%, nearing levels typically seen in software companies, reflecting its enhanced pricing power [2][4] - TSMC forecasts a revenue growth of nearly 30% for 2026, with capital expenditures expected to rise by about 32%, reaching a record $52 to $56 billion [4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The evolution of technology roadmaps appears to favor NVIDIA and AMD, indicating that Apple will need to compete for capacity in the near term [5][8] - TSMC's most advanced 2nm process is currently in production, with Apple as a major buyer, but upcoming nodes are expected to focus more on high-performance computing (HPC) needs [5][8] Group 4: Strategic Considerations - Despite the competitive pressures, Apple's broad product line across TSMC's multiple fabs provides a level of stability that is still valuable to TSMC [9][10] - TSMC's CEO has expressed concerns about the company's expansion pace and the associated risks, particularly regarding depreciation costs, which are significantly higher than those of its fabless competitors [9]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs raised TSMC's target price from NT$2,330 to NT$2,600, indicating that a gross margin of over 60% may become the new normal even in a high-cost environment [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - TSMC's capital expenditure is entering an upward cycle, with guidance for this year set at US$52 billion to US$56 billion, exceeding market expectations [1] - Advanced packaging is evolving into another growth engine for TSMC, with CoWoS revenue expected to grow by 102.5% and 81.2% year-on-year in 2026 and 2027, respectively [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - TSMC's management indicated that the AI-driven supply-demand imbalance remains unresolved, with advanced process capacity still limited [1] - Goldman Sachs reinforced its view that the supply-demand gap may persist until 2027 [1]

Group 1 - The semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) has seen significant inflows, with over 2 billion shares flowing in during the trading session and a net inflow exceeding 5 billion yuan over the past 20 trading days, reaching a total scale of over 15 billion yuan by January 15, 2026, making it the largest in its category [2] - Two main reasons contribute to the strong performance of the semiconductor equipment ETF: the expansion of advanced process production and rising storage prices. Advanced process production involves techniques like chip stacking to achieve production of chips equivalent to 7nm and 5nm, despite current limitations in direct mass production [2] - Rising storage prices lead to increased production efforts by manufacturers, which in turn drives demand for critical equipment such as etching and thin-film deposition tools essential for high-performance storage chips [2] Group 2 - TSMC's performance has exceeded expectations, reigniting enthusiasm for AI, as it remains a key player in the global computing power supply chain, with major companies like Nvidia and Broadcom relying on TSMC for manufacturing and testing [3] - TSMC's expansion pace surpasses expectations, indicating a growth in North American AI demand, while the global storage industry is entering an expansion cycle, benefiting domestic storage companies from rising prices [3] - According to CITIC Securities, TSMC is expected to achieve record earnings in 2025, with a significant increase in capital expenditures in 2026, highlighting the ongoing benefits from AI computing power and advanced processes [3]

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's shares soared 5% intraday on Thursday, reaching a new 52-week high. This followed its fourth-quarter earnings report on January 15, which fueled optimism about artificial intelligence. As it beat Wall Street expectations, buoyed by AI investment from hyperscalers, investors are also piling into the stock because of its future positive guidance. The semiconductor manufacturer has seen its stock price rise 69% over the year. In its latest Q4 report, it noted dil ...

Core Insights - TSMC reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for Q4 2025, with revenue reaching $33.73 billion, a year-on-year growth of 25.5%, and net profit of $16.297 billion, up 40.2% year-on-year [1][6][12] - The company anticipates a strong growth trajectory for 2026, projecting nearly 30% revenue growth based on its leadership in advanced processes and packaging technologies [1][12] Financial Performance - Q4 2025 revenue was $33.73 billion, exceeding guidance of $32.2-33.4 billion, with a gross margin of 62.3%, surpassing the previous guidance of 59%-61% [6][9] - TSMC's net income attributable to shareholders was $505.74 million, reflecting a 35% increase year-on-year [6][9] - Capital expenditures for Q4 2025 were $11.51 billion, with a total of $40.90 billion for the year, indicating a strong investment in capacity expansion [11][10] Advanced Technology and Market Trends - Advanced processes (7nm and below) accounted for 77% of total wafer revenue, with 5nm contributing 35% due to high-performance computing (HPC) demand [2][8] - Revenue from AI accelerators constituted a significant portion of total revenue, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 50% for AI accelerator revenue from 2024 to 2029 [3][4][13] - The company is transitioning to 2nm production, with expectations of significant contributions from this node in 2026 [15][22] Customer and Geographic Insights - North American customers contribute approximately 75% of TSMC's revenue, while customers from mainland China accounted for 9% in Q4 2025 [5][12] - TSMC is expanding its manufacturing footprint in the U.S. and Japan, with plans for multiple fabs to support AI and HPC demands [14][15] Future Outlook - TSMC's CEO expressed confidence in the sustainability of AI demand, emphasizing that AI has become integral to core business processes for major cloud service providers [16][17] - The company aims to maintain a long-term gross margin target of over 53%, despite rising operational costs associated with overseas manufacturing [20][21] - TSMC is committed to a flexible capital expenditure strategy to ensure that investments translate into future earnings growth [23]

Group 1 - The AI+ concept is experiencing adjustments, while AI hardware concepts like optical modules are performing well, with the communication ETF rising by 0.76% [1] - TSMC's Q4 revenue reached $33.67 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.5%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.7%, exceeding market expectations [1] - TSMC's gross margin was 62.3%, significantly above the guidance range of 59%-61%, and net profit surged by 35% year-on-year, reaching 505.74 billion NTD [1] Group 2 - Guosheng Securities suggests focusing on performance as year-end approaches, with companies required to release performance forecasts if net profit changes exceed 50% [2] - The communication ETF tracks the CSI 5G communication theme index, focusing on electronic and communication hardware, with top holdings including Zhongji Xuchuang and Liyuan Precision [2] - The AI-focused ETF has a low comprehensive fee rate of 0.20%, making it attractive for investors looking to gain exposure to AI hardware and software applications [2]