摘要 行程过半的地方两会 有何亮点？ ——宏观周度观察 宏观团队：陶川、钟渝梅 报告日期：2026年02月01日 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 ➢ 下周重要事件预览：地方省级两会持续召开中。 ➢ 风险提示：外部环境变化不及预期；政策落地节奏和执行力度与效果不及预期；经济结构调整进度与预期不一 致。 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 ➢ 行程过半的地方两会有何亮点？2025年全国各省市GDP增速目标与实际完成情况呈现分化态势，成功完成的省 市与未完成的省市各占一半。部分省市实际增速与前期目标存在的偏差使2026年地方增长目标的设定更加贴合 当地经济增长的潜在中枢，增长目标的表述从单一、模糊向区间化、弹性化转变。对于地方目标增速的下调或 不必过于担忧，这种调整并不等同于全国增长预期的下调，更多反映地方增长目标的设定更具科学性。 ➢ 本周宏观脉络回顾：经济数据方面，2025年12月工企利润增速大幅反弹，中游行业利润"领跑"； 2025年全 年财政数据公布，自2020年后，公共财政收入首度录得负增长，或压缩支出端发力空间；2026年1月制造业 PMI景气度有所回落，但高技术制造业表现亮眼， ...

医药周报 20260130 从 JPM 大会挖掘 FIC 靶点三期数据验证节点 glmszqdatemark 医药行情回顾&分析&近期判断 周专题：从 JP Morgan 大会看 2026 MNC 密集验证新靶点 风险提示：1）医保、集采政策导致价格不及预期；2）临床进度或上市时间不及预期；3）行业竞争 格局的不确定性；4）地缘政治风险；5）下游投融资及需求复苏不及预期。 2026 年 02 月 01 日 推荐 维持评级 [Table_Author] | 分析师 张金洋 | | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525120012 | | 邮箱： zhangjinyang@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 胡偌碧 | | 执业证书： S0590525120011 | | 邮箱： huruobi@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 王彦迪 | | 执业证书： S0590525120015 | | 邮箱： wangyandi@glms.com.cn | 相对走势 -10% 7% 23% 40% 2025/2 2025/8 2026/1 医药 沪深300 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务 ...

医药周报 20260130 从 JPM 大会挖掘 FIC 靶点三期数据验证节点 glmszqdatemark 医药行情回顾&分析&近期判断 周专题：从 JP Morgan 大会看 2026 MNC 密集验证新靶点 推荐 维持评级 [Table_Author] | 分析师 张金洋 | | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525120012 | | 邮箱： zhangjinyang@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 胡偌碧 | | 执业证书： S0590525120011 | | 邮箱： huruobi@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 王彦迪 | | 执业证书： S0590525120015 | | 邮箱： wangyandi@glms.com.cn | 相对走势 -10% 7% 23% 40% 2025/2 2025/8 2026/1 医药 沪深300 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 风险提示：1）医保、集采政策导致价格不及预期；2）临床进度或上市时间不及预期；3）行业竞争 格局的不确定性；4）地缘政治风险；5）下游投融资及需求复苏不及 ...

前瞻研究系列报告 序曲的终章：战争中的财富"庇护所" glmszqdatemark 宏观范式的趋势转换：r-g 视角下的分配效应与系统性风险预示 r-g（资本回报与经济增长差）是衡量社会分配公平度的指标，反映资本结构加剧 社会分化的机制。历史数据显示，r-g<0 仅在两次世界大战这种极端地缘政治风 险的背景下出现过，而当该差值无限接近负值区间时（如 20 世纪 60 年代末触及 0.58%的极低水平），通常预示着既有经济秩序的内生动力放缓，存在较大的系统 性波动风险。在此时点，常规的稳态投资模式可能面临挑战，全球资产配置需警 惕宏观环境从"平稳期"向"高波动期"转型的潜在冲击。 极端压力情境下的资产逻辑：地缘波动中的韧性表现与价值存续 在宏观波动极值期，跨地域与跨币种的多元化布局虽是防范单一边际风险的关键 手段，但其防御效率在系统性冲击下可能面临挑战。分散化配置通过规避单一主 权信用风险，确实能为组合提供"生存底线"。然而，历史回测显示，当全球风险 共振时，简单的全球等权配置仍难以完全规避区域性市场长期低迷的拖累。这种 逻辑本质上是对既有全球秩序稳定性的投注，在面临结构性调整时，传统的分散 化策略需配合更具主 ...

教育行业周报 | 分析师 | 苏多永 | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书： S0590525110058 | | 邮箱： | suduoyong@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 张锦 | | | 执业证书： S0590525120009 | | 邮箱： | zhangjin_yj@glms.com.cn | 相对走势 -10% 3% 17% 30% 2025/2 2025/8 2026/1 消费者服务 沪深300 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 AI 教育、职教升级与星际前沿人才培养迎新局 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 01 日 推荐 维持评级 [Table_Author] | 1 教育行业政策动态 3 | | --- | | 2 教育个股动态 5 | | 3 教育指数及个股表现 6 | | 3.1 教育行业一周市场表现 6 | | 3.2 一周个股表现 7 | | 4 投资建议 9 | | 4.1 行业投资建议 9 | | 5 风险提示 10 | | 插图目录 11 | | 表格目录 11 | 行业动态 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the oil and gas sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, Zhongman Petroleum, and New Natural Gas [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that geopolitical tensions and cold weather have led to supply contraction expectations, driving oil prices up significantly. The U.S. oil production was impacted by a winter storm, resulting in a loss of up to 2 million barrels per day, approximately 15% of total U.S. production. Additionally, the report notes that geopolitical developments, particularly regarding Iran and the Middle East, will continue to influence short-term oil price fluctuations [8][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The oil and petrochemical sector saw a 6.9% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 0.1% [16][19]. 2. Market Performance - The report indicates that the oil extraction sub-sector had the highest weekly increase of 12.3%, while the oil product sales and storage sub-sector had the smallest increase of 0.7% [19]. 3. Company Performance - Notable performers in the oil and petrochemical sector included PetroChina, which is recommended for its stable performance and high dividends, and CNOOC, which is highlighted for its low production costs and growth potential [14]. 4. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses OPEC+'s decision to maintain stable oil production levels amidst geopolitical risks and supply concerns. It also mentions the EU's approval to stop importing Russian natural gas by the end of 2027, which could impact global energy dynamics [24][25]. 5. Oil and Gas Prices - As of January 30, Brent crude oil futures settled at $70.69 per barrel, a 7.30% increase week-on-week, while WTI futures rose by 6.78% to $65.21 per barrel. The report also notes a decrease in U.S. oil production and refinery processing rates [12][13]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests three main investment lines: focusing on stable industry leaders like PetroChina and Sinopec, considering CNOOC for its strong earnings potential, and looking at growth companies like New Natural Gas and Zhongman Petroleum due to domestic encouragement for oil and gas production [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the process of incremental funds entering the market will continue, and the "Spring Rally" market is likely to occur at the beginning of the year, with the main focus on investment opportunities in the technology and high - end manufacturing sectors [3][54]. - As the proportion of institutional investors in the convertible bond market increases, the impact of stock market expectations on convertible bond valuation deepens. Given investors' optimism about the medium - to - long - term stock market, institutional investors' demand for equity assets remains strong, and the stable capital situation supports convertible bond valuation, with limited short - to - medium - term downside [3][54]. - When the valuation is stable, convertible bonds show the characteristics of "strong in rising and weak in falling" compared to underlying stocks, and still have high allocation value [3][54]. - Recommended convertible bond tracks and targets: (1) In the technology growth sector, pay attention to Ruike, Qizhong and other convertible bonds due to rising overseas computing power demand and the acceleration of AI industrialization; (2) In the high - end manufacturing field, focus on convertible bonds such as Yake, Daimei, Huachen, and Yubang; (3) Due to the optimization of the supply - demand pattern in some industries, pay attention to Youfa convertible bond [3][54]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Strategy Analysis 3.1.1 February's Top Ten Convertible Bonds - Meinuohua/Meinuo Convertible Bond: A comprehensive international pharmaceutical technology manufacturing company. The JH389 project in its innovation pipeline is in continuous progress, with positive results in product development, patent application, and commercialization planning [2][10]. - Yatai Technology/Yaoke Convertible Bond: Focuses on R & D and production of aluminum materials and components for automobile thermal management and lightweight systems. It is an important global supplier in these fields and is actively expanding into emerging areas such as new - energy vehicles, aerospace, industrial thermal management, and robotics [2][11]. - Youfa Group/Youfa Convertible Bond: The largest domestic welded steel pipe R & D, production, and sales enterprise. With the improvement of downstream demand and the upcoming new round of supply - side reform, the company plans to improve its national and overseas layout [2][17]. - Jiangsu Huachen/Huachen Convertible Bond: Engaged in the R & D, production, and sales of power transmission and control equipment. With the growth of global energy investment, the company is optimizing its overseas market strategy and aiming for new breakthroughs in overseas markets [2][20]. - Hongya CNC/Hongya Convertible Bond: A leading domestic furniture equipment enterprise. Its subsidiaries are developing in the fields of furniture manufacturing automation solutions and high - precision gears, with good industrial synergy [24]. - Qizhong Technology/Qizhong Convertible Bond: Specializes in advanced packaging and testing of integrated circuits. It is a leading domestic company in bumping manufacturing technology. The global and Chinese display driver chip markets are growing, providing development opportunities [2][28]. - Seiko Steel Structure/Seiko Convertible Bond: A comprehensive steel structure enterprise with complete industrial chain services. It has traditional and innovative business models and has successfully undertaken many overseas landmark projects [2][33]. - Daimei Co., Ltd./Daimei Convertible Bond: A leading global automotive interior parts manufacturer. It has established a new subsidiary focusing on intelligent robotics, marking a step forward in its intelligent business layout [2][37]. - Yubang New Materials/Yubang Convertible Bond: A global supplier of tin - coated welding tapes for photovoltaic modules. It is entering the industrial thermal management track by investing in a technology company, and the data center thermal management market has broad prospects [2][44]. - Ruike Da/Ruike Convertible Bond: A national specialized and sophisticated "little giant" enterprise in connector products. It has a wide range of products in new - energy vehicles, data centers, and other fields, and the demand for its high - speed cable products in data centers is strong [2][48]. 3.1.2 Weekly Convertible Bond Strategy - This week, the stock indices showed a differentiated trend. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell by 2.61%. The petrochemical, communication, and coal industries ranked high in terms of price changes. The median prices of convertible bonds in each parity range decreased, and the convertible bond valuation is still relatively high compared to historical levels [2][54]. 3.2 Market Tracking - The report provides multiple charts to track the market, including the price changes of broad - based indices and industry indices, the median prices of convertible bonds in different conversion value ranges, the changes in convertible bond valuation, and the back - testing results of various strategy indices. However, specific data analysis is not elaborated in the text [58][60][63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report delves into the investment opportunities of 10 - year secondary capital bonds. It analyzes the development history of commercial bank secondary capital bonds, the issuance and trading condition of 10 - year secondary capital bonds, the main investors, and provides investment strategies from both allocation and trading perspectives [4][7][49]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 10 - year Commercial Bank Secondary Capital Bond Decryption - **Development History of Commercial Bank Secondary Capital Bonds**: The development of China's commercial bank secondary capital bonds can be divided into four stages. From 2004 - 2012, it was the "old - style sub - debt" stage; from 2013 - 2019, "new - style secondary capital bonds" emerged; from 2020 - 2023, the market's risk perception deepened; from 2024 to the present, the market entered a new innovation cycle [4][8][9]. - **The "Past and Present" of 10 - year Secondary Capital Bonds**: The first 10 + 5 - year secondary capital bond was issued by Agricultural Bank of China in March 2019. Since 2019, only state - owned large - scale banks and state - owned joint - stock banks have issued 10Y secondary capital bonds. The state - owned large - scale banks are the main issuers, with Agricultural Bank of China having the largest issuance volume. In terms of the stock, the secondary capital bonds with a remaining term of 3 - 5 years have the largest stock, followed by those with a remaining term of 7 - 10 years [18][22][24]. - **Secondary Transaction Situation of 10 - year Secondary Capital Bonds**: From January 1, 2025, to January 13, 2026, the secondary capital bonds with a term of 3 - 5 years were the most actively traded, followed by those with a term of 1 - 3 years. The 7 - 10 - year secondary capital bonds ranked fourth in terms of trading volume. The 9 - 10 - year secondary capital bonds had the largest trading volume among long - term bonds, and the 10 - year secondary capital bonds issued by Agricultural Bank of China had the best liquidity [30][32][33]. - **Who is Buying 10 - year Secondary Capital Bonds**: Insurance institutions are the main buyers of 10Y secondary capital bonds, with a net increase of about 1.6 billion yuan in 7 - 10Y secondary capital bonds in the past year. However, due to accounting treatment issues, insurance funds are more cautious in asset allocation. The increase in trading volume in the past month may be due to insurance companies' net purchases. In addition, securities companies, insurance companies, and fund products are the top three buyers in the past month, but the net purchase scale of securities companies is negative, indicating a stronger trading nature [36][42][43]. Investment Strategies for 10 - year Secondary Capital Bonds - **From the Perspective of Allocation**: The report uses interest rate spread and variety premium as key indicators to measure the relative value of 10Y secondary capital bonds. In terms of interest rate spread, when the funds are loose and the interest rate spread is high, the yield of 10Y secondary capital bonds may decline. In terms of variety premium, the trend of 10Y secondary capital bonds is highly consistent with that of ultra - long local bonds, with a "volatility amplification" effect in some periods [50][52][54]. - **From the Perspective of Trading**: The report reviews the term spread, the order of yield peaks of 10Y secondary capital bonds and other varieties, and the spread indicators between secondary capital bonds and urban investment bonds. Since 2025, the term spread between 10Y and 5Y secondary capital bonds has moved in the same direction as the 10Y secondary capital bond. In the interest rate upward cycle since 2023, 10Y secondary capital bonds have risen and fallen in the same direction as other varieties; in the downward cycle, almost all varieties reach the stage low at the same time. When the spread between 10Y secondary capital bonds and 10Y urban investment bonds turns negative, the yield of 10Y secondary capital bonds often has room to decline [59][66][76]. - **Summary of Trading Strategies**: The report provides a basic framework for investment decisions by reviewing historical experiences from the perspectives of allocation and trading, and summarizing the core judgment indicators and rules for the interest rate to reach the stage peak and bottom [81][82][83].

资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测；（注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 30 日收盘价） 2026 年 01 月 31 日 指南针（300803.SZ）2025 年报点评 业绩同比高增，证券业务协同效应渐显 glmszqdatemark [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 项目/年度 | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 2,146 | 2,769 | 3,277 | 3,736 | | 增长率（%） | 40.4 | 29.0 | 18.3 | 14.0 | | 归属母公司股东净利润（百万元） | 228 | 326 | 373 | 429 | | 增长率（%） | 118.7 | 43.1 | 14.2 | 15.3 | | 每股收益（元） | 0.37 | 0.53 | 0.61 | 0.70 | | PE | 332 | 232 | 203 | 176 | | PB | 27.1 | 24.3 | 21.7 | 19.3 | | 推荐 | 维持评级 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 2.146 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 228 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 118.74% [8] - The financial information service business showed steady growth, with revenue reaching 1.509 billion yuan, up 27.50% year-on-year, benefiting from a high market sentiment [8] - The report highlights the rapid development of the company's subsidiary, Maigao Securities, which generated revenue of 757 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56%, and a net profit of 165 million yuan, up 133% [8] - The company is expected to see continued revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 2.769 billion yuan in 2026, 3.277 billion yuan in 2027, and 3.736 billion yuan in 2028, with corresponding growth rates of 29.0%, 18.3%, and 14.0% respectively [8] Financial Forecasts - Revenue and profit forecasts for the company are as follows: - 2025: Revenue of 2.146 billion yuan, net profit of 228 million yuan - 2026: Revenue of 2.769 billion yuan, net profit of 326 million yuan - 2027: Revenue of 3.277 billion yuan, net profit of 373 million yuan - 2028: Revenue of 3.736 billion yuan, net profit of 429 million yuan [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.37 yuan in 2025, increasing to 0.53 yuan in 2026, 0.61 yuan in 2027, and 0.70 yuan in 2028 [9] Cost and Expense Analysis - The company has increased its advertising and online promotion expenses significantly, amounting to 653 million yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 66.79% [8] - Sales, management, and R&D expenses for 2025 were 1.111 billion yuan, 650 million yuan, and 164 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 38.1%, 43.8%, and 1.2% [9]