菜百股份（605599.SH）2025 年业绩预告点评 利润大幅增长，投资金业务持续受益 glmszqdatemark [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 项目/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 20,233 | 33,228 | 37,052 | 40,244 | | 增长率（%） | 22.2 | 64.2 | 11.5 | 8.6 | | 归属母公司股东净利润（百万元） | 719 | 1,150 | 1,347 | 1,516 | | 增长率（%） | 1.7 | 60.0 | 17.1 | 12.5 | | 每股收益（元） | 0.92 | 1.48 | 1.73 | 1.95 | | PE | 23 | 15 | 12 | 11 | | PB | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测；（注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 30 日收盘价） 2026 年 02 月 01 日 | 推荐 | 维持评级 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the next 12 months [9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 5.2 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 46.15% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 2.15 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 50.37% compared to the previous year [2]. - The growth is primarily driven by the company's focus on precision treatment for lung cancer, particularly through its commercialized product, Furmetinib, which has gained recognition in the industry [2]. - The company has optimized resource allocation and leveraged synergies among its commercial products, contributing to sustained operational performance [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 5.2 billion, 6.395 billion, and 8.193 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 46.2%, 23.0%, and 28.1% [10]. - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 2.15 billion, 2.461 billion, and 3.187 billion yuan, with growth rates of 50.3%, 14.5%, and 29.5% [10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 4.78, 5.47, and 7.08 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10]. Product Development and Market Strategy - The company is actively conducting multiple clinical trials for Furmetinib, targeting various indications in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), which is expected to provide growth momentum for its commercialization [3][4]. - The collaboration with ArriVent to develop Furmetinib for rare mutations in NSCLC is progressing well, with ongoing global Phase III clinical trials [3]. - The company has introduced additional products, such as Goretinib and Pralsetinib, enhancing its portfolio in the lung cancer treatment market [5][9]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has strengthened its commercialization capabilities, with a marketing team of over 1,400 personnel covering 31 provinces and more than 5,000 hospitals [8]. - All core products, including Furmetinib, Goretinib, and Pralsetinib, have been included in the new national medical insurance directory, effective January 1, 2026, which is expected to enhance market accessibility [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.06 to 1.23 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 47% to 71%. The non-recurring net profit is projected to be between 0.95 to 1.12 billion yuan, with a growth of 39% to 64% [8]. - The fourth quarter of 2025 is anticipated to see a significant increase in net profit, estimated at 413 to 583 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 150% to 254% [8]. - The upward trend in gold prices, coupled with favorable tax reforms, is expected to enhance the company's investment gold business, leading to increased market demand [8]. - The company benefits from high consumer demand for gold in the Beijing region, which is expected to drive sales of gold jewelry [8]. - The report forecasts revenues of 33.23 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 64.2%, and net profits of 1.15 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 60% [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 20.23 billion yuan, 33.23 billion yuan, 37.05 billion yuan, and 40.24 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 22.2%, 64.2%, 11.5%, and 8.6% [2][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 719 million yuan in 2024, 1.15 billion yuan in 2025, 1.35 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.52 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 1.7%, 60%, 17.1%, and 12.5% [2][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.92 yuan in 2024, 1.48 yuan in 2025, 1.73 yuan in 2026, and 1.95 yuan in 2027 [2][9].

Investment Rating - The report provides a forecast for social financing (社融) in January 2026, estimating it at 74,432 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 390 billion yuan and a month-on-month increase of approximately 1.09% [7][11]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of a bottom-up approach in predicting social financing by analyzing economic logic, high-frequency data, and seasonal characteristics. This method has previously yielded accurate predictions regarding both the total amount and structure of social financing [7][11]. - The forecast for January 2026 includes an expected increase in new RMB loans of approximately 53,100 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 90 billion yuan. This includes 18 billion yuan in new long-term loans for residents and 56,600 billion yuan in corporate and short-term loans for residents [7][11]. - Government bond net financing is projected to be around 9,800 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2,800 billion yuan, while corporate bond net financing is expected to reach 5,600 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1,100 billion yuan [7][11]. Summary by Sections Social Financing Forecast - The report predicts that the total new social financing for January 2026 will be 74,432 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 390 billion yuan and a year-on-year growth rate of 8.28% for the total stock of social financing [7][11][18]. - The structure of social financing shows a recovery in corporate loans and continued strength in government bonds. However, new long-term loans for residents are expected to grow only modestly due to a decline in new home transactions in major cities [13][18]. Quantitative Framework - The report outlines a detailed quantitative framework for predicting social financing, which includes various components such as RMB loans, corporate financing, and government bonds. Each component is analyzed based on its unique characteristics and predictive variables [12][18]. - The framework utilizes historical data and economic indicators such as PMI and housing sales to forecast the different components of social financing accurately [12][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for key companies in the electric equipment and new energy sector, including Ningde Times, Kodali, and others [6][7]. Core Insights - The electric equipment and new energy sector experienced a decline of 5.10% in the past week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index. The lithium battery index saw the smallest drop at 1.03%, while the nuclear power index faced the largest decline at 8.96% [1]. - A significant development is the mass production of aviation-grade solid-state batteries by XWANDA, which includes two product lines with energy densities of 320Wh/kg and 380Wh/kg, targeting various applications including eVTOLs [2][15]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have announced a new capacity compensation mechanism for power generation, aiming to create a more market-oriented and unified system [3][37]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - XWANDA has achieved mass production of aviation-grade solid-state batteries, with Gen1 (320Wh/kg) for lightweight drones and Gen2 (380Wh/kg) for eVTOLs, featuring fast charging and high safety standards [2][15][19]. - The company plans to introduce Gen3 batteries with over 400Wh/kg energy density by 2026 and 500Wh/kg full solid-state batteries by 2027 [15][21]. New Energy Generation - The new capacity compensation mechanism expands the scope to include coal and gas power, as well as independent storage resources, promoting a more scientific and market-driven approach [3][38]. - The mechanism aims to unify compensation standards based on actual peak output capabilities rather than installed capacity, enhancing the reliability of power supply [38][39]. Electric Equipment and Industrial Control - Hunan Province plans to invest 45.2 billion yuan in 2026 to accelerate the construction of 24 key energy projects, including high-voltage transmission projects [4]. - The China Electric Power Research Institute has successfully scaled up the application of high-performance transformer protection technology in major power projects [4]. Commercial Aerospace - SpaceX is seeking to deploy a constellation of up to 1 million satellites to create an orbital AI data center, indicating a significant advancement in commercial aerospace [5]. Market Performance - The report highlights key companies to watch, including Ningde Times, Kodali, and others, as they navigate the current market dynamics [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in 2025, with a projected net profit increase of 51%-54% year-on-year, reaching between 351 billion to 357 billion yuan [8] - The cloud computing business is identified as a key growth driver, with CSP server revenue expected to grow over 1.8 times year-on-year in 2025 [8] - The company is positioned as a leading global OEM for AI servers, benefiting from a strong market share and a robust customer base [8] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 609.135 billion yuan in 2024 to 1,386.818 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 27.9%, 33.9%, 35.5%, and 25.4% respectively [3][9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 23.216 billion yuan in 2024 to 82.264 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 10.3%, 52.5%, 76.8%, and 31.4% respectively [3][9] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 1.17 yuan in 2024 to 4.14 yuan in 2027 [3][9] Business Segments - CSP AI server revenue is anticipated to grow over three times year-on-year in 2025, with a quarterly growth rate exceeding 50% in Q4 [8] - The high-speed switching equipment business is projected to see a revenue increase of 13 times year-on-year for products over 800G in 2025 [8] - The precision component business is expected to achieve double-digit growth in shipment volume, reinforcing the company's diversified business foundation [8]

行程过半的地方两会 有何亮点？ ——宏观周度观察 宏观团队：陶川、钟渝梅 报告日期：2026年02月01日 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 摘要 ➢ 下周重要事件预览：地方省级两会持续召开中。 ➢ 风险提示：外部环境变化不及预期；政策落地节奏和执行力度与效果不及预期；经济结构调整进度与预期不一 致。 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 ➢ 行程过半的地方两会有何亮点？2025年全国各省市GDP增速目标与实际完成情况呈现分化态势，成功完成的省 市与未完成的省市各占一半。部分省市实际增速与前期目标存在的偏差使2026年地方增长目标的设定更加贴合 当地经济增长的潜在中枢，增长目标的表述从单一、模糊向区间化、弹性化转变。对于地方目标增速的下调或 不必过于担忧，这种调整并不等同于全国增长预期的下调，更多反映地方增长目标的设定更具科学性。 ➢ 本周宏观脉络回顾：经济数据方面，2025年12月工企利润增速大幅反弹，中游行业利润"领跑"； 2025年全 年财政数据公布，自2020年后，公共财政收入首度录得负增长，或压缩支出端发力空间；2026年1月制造业 PMI景气度有所回落，但高技术制造业表现亮眼， ...

海外商业航天产业追踪 SpaceX：百万卫星计划暗示低轨空间稀缺如"黄金" glmszqdatemark 事件：2026 年 1 月 30 日，SpaceX 向美国联邦通信委员会提交了卫星发射申请， 将该项目描述为"一个拥有前所未有的计算能力的卫星星座，可为先进的人工智能 （AI）模型及其相关应用提供支持"。另据《参考消息》，美国《个人电脑杂志》网 站 1 月 31 日报道，马斯克旗下的太空探索技术公司（SpaceX）申请发射多达 100 万颗卫星，以建立一个环绕地球的轨道数据中心网络。 除了抢配额，AI 产业浪潮扩散带来的算力机会亦是助推卫星业务发展的需求要 素。在申请中，SpaceX 指出地球上人工智能数据中心的能源成本不断攀升，轨道 数据中心建设是满足日益增长的人工智能计算能力需求的最有效方式。此外，公 司还表示将布局能够利用 SpaceX 更强大的星舰飞船快速发射太空数据中心，这 对于使用下一代卫星升级星链系统也至关重要。在能源方面，这些卫星将利用太 空光伏技术，在"500 公里至 2000 公里高度、30 度倾角的太阳同步轨道"上运行。 这些轨道数据中心还将使用"光链路"或激光与星链连接，利用现有的 ...

摘要 行程过半的地方两会 有何亮点？ ——宏观周度观察 宏观团队：陶川、钟渝梅 报告日期：2026年02月01日 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 ➢ 下周重要事件预览：地方省级两会持续召开中。 ➢ 风险提示：外部环境变化不及预期；政策落地节奏和执行力度与效果不及预期；经济结构调整进度与预期不一 致。 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 ➢ 行程过半的地方两会有何亮点？2025年全国各省市GDP增速目标与实际完成情况呈现分化态势，成功完成的省 市与未完成的省市各占一半。部分省市实际增速与前期目标存在的偏差使2026年地方增长目标的设定更加贴合 当地经济增长的潜在中枢，增长目标的表述从单一、模糊向区间化、弹性化转变。对于地方目标增速的下调或 不必过于担忧，这种调整并不等同于全国增长预期的下调，更多反映地方增长目标的设定更具科学性。 ➢ 本周宏观脉络回顾：经济数据方面，2025年12月工企利润增速大幅反弹，中游行业利润"领跑"； 2025年全 年财政数据公布，自2020年后，公共财政收入首度录得负增长，或压缩支出端发力空间；2026年1月制造业 PMI景气度有所回落，但高技术制造业表现亮眼， ...

医药周报 20260130 从 JPM 大会挖掘 FIC 靶点三期数据验证节点 glmszqdatemark 医药行情回顾&分析&近期判断 周专题：从 JP Morgan 大会看 2026 MNC 密集验证新靶点 风险提示：1）医保、集采政策导致价格不及预期；2）临床进度或上市时间不及预期；3）行业竞争 格局的不确定性；4）地缘政治风险；5）下游投融资及需求复苏不及预期。 2026 年 02 月 01 日 推荐 维持评级 [Table_Author] | 分析师 张金洋 | | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525120012 | | 邮箱： zhangjinyang@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 胡偌碧 | | 执业证书： S0590525120011 | | 邮箱： huruobi@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 王彦迪 | | 执业证书： S0590525120015 | | 邮箱： wangyandi@glms.com.cn | 相对走势 -10% 7% 23% 40% 2025/2 2025/8 2026/1 医药 沪深300 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务 ...