[Table_Author] 2026 年 02 月 08 日 高息存款到期高点或已过 glmszqdatemark 推荐 维持评级 分析师 王先爽 执业证书： S0590525120014 邮箱： wangxianshuang@glms.com.cn 分析师 文雪阳 执业证书： S0590526010002 邮箱： wenxueyang@glms.com.cn 相对走势 -10% 3% 17% 30% 2025/2 2025/8 2026/2 银行 沪深300 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 流动性系列之二 价格是一种货币（流动性）现象，资本市场也不例外。资本市场资金来源主要源 自机构、居民、海外和政策，其中机构资金最终来自居民，所以每到市场情绪高 涨时候，牛市逻辑中往往存在对居民存款迁徙资本市场的讨论和期待。作为研究 者，我们需要厘清何为现实，何为叙事。我们团队开创了基于上市银行报表进行 存贷款到期规模测算的框架。本篇报告将对存款到期现实和叙事进行进一步探讨。 现实一：我国居民和单位一直有大量存款。截至 2025 年 12 月，我国居民和单位 总存款 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 9.8 to 11.8 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 89.50% to 128.17% [2]. - The company is positioned to maintain its leading status in the new scenarios of the industry, particularly in the silicon photonics and 1.6T markets, which are expected to enhance profitability [8]. - The company has faced challenges such as foreign exchange losses and material shortages but still recorded significant growth in Q4, with a net profit of 3.67 billion yuan, up 158.53% year-on-year [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2024A: 23.86 billion yuan, 2025E: 39.64 billion yuan, 2026E: 79.30 billion yuan, and 2027E: 122.24 billion yuan, with growth rates of 122.6%, 66.1%, 100.1%, and 54.1% respectively [3][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 5.17 billion yuan in 2024, 10.93 billion yuan in 2025, 22.53 billion yuan in 2026, and 35.36 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 137.9%, 111.4%, 106.1%, and 57.0% respectively [3][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 4.65 yuan in 2024, 9.84 yuan in 2025, 20.27 yuan in 2026, and 31.83 yuan in 2027 [3][9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively expanding into the scale-up market, which is expected to see bandwidth demands increase significantly, potentially reaching 5-10 times that of the scale-out market [8]. - The company has developed customized products in collaboration with key clients, with expectations for sample validation in 2026 and large-scale deployment in 2027 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 9.8 billion to 11.8 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 89.50% to 128.17% [2]. - The company is positioned to maintain its leading status in the new scenarios of the industry, particularly in the silicon photonics and 1.6T market segments, which are anticipated to enhance profitability [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: 23.86 billion yuan - 2025: 39.64 billion yuan (growth rate of 66.1%) - 2026: 79.30 billion yuan (growth rate of 100.1%) - 2027: 122.24 billion yuan (growth rate of 54.1%) [3][9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as: - 2024: 5.17 billion yuan - 2025: 10.93 billion yuan (growth rate of 111.4%) - 2026: 22.53 billion yuan (growth rate of 106.1%) - 2027: 35.36 billion yuan (growth rate of 57.0%) [3][9] - Earnings per share are projected to increase significantly, reaching 9.84 yuan in 2025 and 31.83 yuan in 2027 [3][9]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company has begun shipping 1.6T products to key customers, with a rapid increase in volume expected in Q4 2025, which will contribute positively to gross margins [8]. - The demand for high-end optical modules is driven by AI advancements, which is expected to sustain high growth rates in the coming years [8]. - The company is actively expanding into the scale-up market, anticipating significant demand for cabinet optical connection products starting in 2027 [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to Pop Mart (9992.HK), indicating a favorable outlook for the company's growth and market position [4]. Core Insights - The market perception of Pop Mart is evolving from a "blind box company" to a "global IP full industry chain group," reflecting a significant transformation in its business model and market strategy [4]. - The report addresses key concerns regarding the extension of IP lifecycle, breakthrough in the North American market, and the transition of valuation systems [4]. Summary by Sections Q1: Sustainability of Labubu's Growth - Labubu's strong growth is deemed sustainable due to proactive product launch management, supply chain optimization, and the promotion of an IP family strategy, transitioning from a phenomenon to a core IP [5]. - Healthy growth is characterized by a decline in secondary market prices, which is seen as a positive clearing rather than a collapse, laying the foundation for long-term growth [5]. Q2: Capability of Mass Producing "Medium IP" - The company has established an industrialized and replicable IP incubation system, enabling it to mass-produce medium-sized IPs [6]. - The new IP, represented by "Twinkle Twinkle," achieved revenue of 390 million yuan in the first half of 2025, complementing Labubu and ensuring continuous product iteration [6]. Q3: Growth Potential in North America - The North American market presents significant growth potential, driven by strategic store expansion and localized operations [7]. - Pop Mart plans to open approximately 270-550 stores in North America, with a focus on a multi-tiered network of flagship, core, and channel stores to enhance regional penetration [7]. Q4: Penetration in the European Market - The European market is rapidly penetrating, with revenue reaching 478 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 729% [8]. - The strategy emphasizes "cultural output," partnering with iconic art landmarks and enhancing brand positioning through localized marketing efforts [8]. Q5: Progress in New Business Layouts - New business initiatives like POP BAKERY and POPOP are designed to extend consumption scenarios around IP, creating high-frequency consumption opportunities [9]. - POP BAKERY offers themed desserts priced between 39-199 yuan, while POPOP features affordable luxury jewelry priced between 249-2699 yuan, enhancing customer value [9]. Q6: Performance Growth Outlook for 2026 - The company anticipates steady growth in 2026, with total revenue projected to reach 51 billion yuan and adjusted net profit of 18 billion yuan, driven by overseas market expansion and domestic store renewal strategies [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to Pop Mart (9992.HK), indicating a favorable outlook for the company's growth and market position [4]. Core Insights - The market perception of Pop Mart is evolving from a "blind box company" to a "global IP full industry chain group," reflecting a significant transformation in its business model and market strategy [4]. - The report addresses key concerns regarding the extension of IP lifecycle, breakthrough in the North American market, and the transition of valuation systems [4]. Summary by Sections Q1: Sustainability of Labubu's Growth - Labubu's strong growth is deemed sustainable due to proactive product rhythm adjustments, supply chain optimization, and the promotion of an IP family strategy, transitioning from a phenomenon to a core IP [5]. - Healthy growth is characterized by a decline in secondary market prices, which is seen as a positive clearing rather than a collapse, laying the foundation for long-term growth [5]. Q2: Capability of Mass Producing "Medium IP" - The company has established an industrialized and replicable IP incubation system, enabling it to mass-produce medium-sized IPs [6]. - The new IP, represented by "Twinkle Twinkle," achieved revenue of 390 million yuan in the first half of 2025, complementing Labubu and ensuring continuous product iteration [6]. Q3: Growth Potential in North America - The North American market presents significant growth potential, driven by strategic store expansion and localized operations [7]. - Pop Mart plans to open approximately 270-550 stores in North America, with a focus on a multi-store network to enhance regional penetration [7]. Q4: Market Penetration in Europe - The European market is rapidly penetrating, with revenue reaching 478 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 729% [8]. - The strategy emphasizes "cultural output" by collaborating with art landmarks and enhancing brand tone through localized marketing [8]. Q5: Progress in New Business Layouts - New business initiatives like POP BAKERY and POPOP are designed to extend consumption scenarios around IP, creating high-frequency consumption opportunities [9]. - POP BAKERY offers themed desserts priced between 39-199 yuan, while POPOP features luxury jewelry priced from 249-2699 yuan, enhancing customer value [9]. Q6: Performance Growth Outlook for 2026 - The company anticipates steady growth in 2026, with total revenue projected to reach 51 billion yuan and adjusted net profit of 18 billion yuan, driven by overseas market expansion and domestic store renewal strategies [10].

非银金融行业点评 优化再融资机制安排，扶优扶科导向明确 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 09 日 推荐 维持评级 [Table_Author] 分析师 刘雨辰 执业证书： S0590522100001 邮箱： liuyuch@glms.com.cn 分析师 耿张逸 执业证书： S0590524100001 相对走势 -20% -3% 13% 30% 2025/2 2025/8 2026/2 非银行金融 沪深300 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 邮箱： gzhy@glms.com.cn 事件：2026 年 2 月 9 日，沪深北交易所宣布推出优化再融资一揽子措施。 再融资是资本市场投融资功能的重要组成部分。2025 年中央经济工作会议要求， 持续深化资本市场投融资综合改革。再融资是资本市场投融资功能的重要组成部 分，在支持上市公司做优做强、促进资源优化配置等方面发挥着重要作用。此次 沪深北交易所优化再融资一揽子举措具体包括四个方面：一是加大对优质上市公 司支持力度。二是更好适应科技创新企业再融资需求。三是提升再融资灵活性、 便利度。 ...

流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题 供给高峰平稳落地，关注超长地方债品种利差压缩机会 glmszqdatemark 货币政策与流动性观点：春节将至，央行已经提供较多中期流动性呵护资金面， 供给冲击下资金面非常宽松，本周资金面扰动因素较上周较多，一方面政府债净 缴款上升至 6437 亿元、考虑调休后同业存单到期规模上升至 9719 亿元，另一 方面春节取现需求可能集中释放。得益于央行前期的买断式、MLF、国债买卖操 作，年初以来累计净投放 1.2 万亿元中长期资金，银行体系资金融出状况也不错， 预计资金面能够平稳过节。上周存单有再融资优势，因此利率继续低位运行，本 周开始关注提价情况。 地方债观点：受春节影响，2 月政府债供给节奏前置明显，春节前地方债总发行 9018 亿元，超过 1 月实际发行规模。预计截至 2 月 15 日，地方债累计发行 17652 亿元，其中超长地方债发行 9421 亿元，占比为 53%；置换债发行 5899 亿元 （2025 年同期 3781 亿元），对 7Y、10Y 置换债供给大幅增加。目前发行计划调 整后 2-3 月计划分别为 8149 亿元和 9609 亿元，预计 2 月实际供给在 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for key companies in the transportation sector, including SF Holding, Eastern Airlines Logistics, and Spring Airlines, among others [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the competitive landscape in the instant retail sector, emphasizing the strategic moves by Meituan and Alibaba, which are intensifying their investments in instant retail. The market for instant retail in China is projected to grow significantly, with an expected CAGR of 43.6% from 2018 to 2026, reaching a market size of 1.2 trillion yuan by 2026 and over 2 trillion yuan by 2030 [7][14]. - The report also notes the strong performance of the aviation sector during the Spring Festival, with both passenger volume and ticket prices showing positive trends. The average ticket price for domestic economy class has increased by 4.8% year-on-year as of February 6, 2026 [44][47]. - The logistics sector, particularly SF Express, is highlighted for its rapid growth and profitability, with a 49% year-on-year revenue increase in the first half of 2025. The company is positioned as a leading independent third-party instant delivery service provider, benefiting from the expansion of the instant delivery market [22][34]. Summary by Sections Instant Retail Competition - Meituan and Alibaba are aggressively expanding their instant retail capabilities, with Meituan planning to acquire Dingdong Maicai to enhance its supply chain and delivery capabilities [12]. - The instant retail market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with significant investments from major players like Alibaba and the entry of competitors such as Pinduoduo and Douyin [14][21]. - SF Express is positioned to benefit from the tightening supply in the instant delivery sector, enhancing its competitive edge [34]. Aviation Sector - The Spring Festival has led to a surge in both passenger numbers and ticket prices, with domestic flights operating at 116.74% of 2019 levels [36]. - The average ticket price for domestic economy class has risen to 840.52 yuan, reflecting a 3.06% increase compared to the previous year [44]. - The report suggests that the strong performance in the aviation sector could catalyze investment sentiment, particularly if pre-sale performance improves [47]. Logistics and Freight - SF Express reported a significant increase in revenue and profitability, with a 120.4% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025 [24]. - The logistics sector is expected to see continued demand growth, driven by stable demand in food delivery and retail sectors [28]. - The report recommends focusing on leading logistics companies like Eastern Airlines Logistics, which are well-positioned to capitalize on the expected demand surge during the Spring Festival [59]. Port Operations and Coal Production - The report highlights a significant increase in daily traffic at the Ganqimaodu port, with a 117.3% year-on-year increase in daily vehicle traffic [60]. - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce coal production in 2026, which may impact global coal prices and supply dynamics [72].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for key companies in the transportation sector, including SF Holding, Eastern Airlines Logistics, and Spring Airlines, among others [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the competitive landscape in the instant retail sector, emphasizing the strategic moves by Meituan and Alibaba to enhance their market positions. Meituan's acquisition of Dingdong Maicai and Alibaba's significant promotional activities are noted as key developments [7][10]. - The instant retail market in China is projected to grow rapidly, with a CAGR of 43.6% from 2018 to 2026, potentially reaching a market size of 1.2 trillion yuan in 2026 and over 2 trillion yuan by 2030 [14][19]. - The report underscores the importance of SF Express's positioning as a leading independent third-party delivery service, benefiting from the rapid expansion of the instant delivery market and increasing demand for express services [22][34]. - In the aviation sector, the report indicates a strong performance during the Spring Festival travel period, with passenger numbers and ticket prices showing positive trends. The average ticket price for domestic economy class has increased by 4.8% year-on-year [36][44]. - The report also discusses the recovery in air cargo demand, driven by seasonal inventory replenishment ahead of the Spring Festival, and recommends focusing on leading logistics companies like Eastern Airlines Logistics [59]. Summary by Sections Instant Retail Competition - Meituan and Alibaba are intensifying their efforts in instant retail, with Meituan acquiring Dingdong Maicai for approximately 7.17 billion yuan to enhance its supply chain capabilities [12]. - The instant retail market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of 1.2 trillion yuan in 2026 and over 2 trillion yuan by 2030, driven by a CAGR of 43.6% [14][19]. - The competition in the instant retail space is intensifying, with major players like Douyin and Pinduoduo entering the market, indicating a "must-win" scenario for market share [21][34]. Aviation Sector Insights - The Spring Festival travel period has seen a surge in passenger numbers, with an average of 231.34 million passengers per day, a year-on-year increase of 5.48% [7][36]. - The average ticket price for domestic economy class has risen to 840.52 yuan, reflecting a 3.06% increase compared to the previous year [44]. - The report suggests that the aviation sector is poised for growth, with favorable supply-demand dynamics expected to drive ticket prices higher [47]. Air Cargo and Logistics - Air cargo demand is rebounding, with major airlines reporting increased cargo aircraft utilization rates, indicating a seasonal recovery in logistics operations [51][55]. - The report recommends focusing on leading logistics companies like Eastern Airlines Logistics, which are well-positioned to benefit from the recovery in air cargo demand [59]. Gankimau Port Operations - The average daily traffic at Gankimau Port has increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 117.3% [60]. - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce coal production in 2026, which may impact global coal prices and logistics operations [72].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][8]. Core Insights - The company is expanding its business from space photovoltaic technology to satellite manufacturing, aiming to create an integrated solution in the commercial aerospace sector [4]. - The acquisition of a 60% stake in Shanghai Xuntian Qianhe Space Technology Co., Ltd. positions the company strategically in the satellite assembly field, enhancing its capabilities in the "remote sensing + communication + computing power" satellite manufacturing market [4]. - The company has successfully raised HKD 398 million through a placement of 18.68 million shares, with 45% allocated for research and production of space photovoltaic products and another 45% reserved for future strategic investments in the commercial aerospace sector [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach CNY 85.34 billion, CNY 119.76 billion, and CNY 159.59 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a significant recovery in net profit expected in 2026 and 2027 [5][7]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of CNY -12.48 billion in 2025, followed by CNY 6.89 billion in 2026 and CNY 11.40 billion in 2027, indicating a strong turnaround [5][7]. - The projected PE ratios for 2026 and 2027 are 44x and 27x respectively, reflecting the anticipated growth in profitability [5][7].