1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report delves into the investment opportunities of 10 - year secondary capital bonds. It analyzes the development history of commercial bank secondary capital bonds, the issuance and trading condition of 10 - year secondary capital bonds, the main investors, and provides investment strategies from both allocation and trading perspectives [4][7][49]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 10 - year Commercial Bank Secondary Capital Bond Decryption - **Development History of Commercial Bank Secondary Capital Bonds**: The development of China's commercial bank secondary capital bonds can be divided into four stages. From 2004 - 2012, it was the "old - style sub - debt" stage; from 2013 - 2019, "new - style secondary capital bonds" emerged; from 2020 - 2023, the market's risk perception deepened; from 2024 to the present, the market entered a new innovation cycle [4][8][9]. - **The "Past and Present" of 10 - year Secondary Capital Bonds**: The first 10 + 5 - year secondary capital bond was issued by Agricultural Bank of China in March 2019. Since 2019, only state - owned large - scale banks and state - owned joint - stock banks have issued 10Y secondary capital bonds. The state - owned large - scale banks are the main issuers, with Agricultural Bank of China having the largest issuance volume. In terms of the stock, the secondary capital bonds with a remaining term of 3 - 5 years have the largest stock, followed by those with a remaining term of 7 - 10 years [18][22][24]. - **Secondary Transaction Situation of 10 - year Secondary Capital Bonds**: From January 1, 2025, to January 13, 2026, the secondary capital bonds with a term of 3 - 5 years were the most actively traded, followed by those with a term of 1 - 3 years. The 7 - 10 - year secondary capital bonds ranked fourth in terms of trading volume. The 9 - 10 - year secondary capital bonds had the largest trading volume among long - term bonds, and the 10 - year secondary capital bonds issued by Agricultural Bank of China had the best liquidity [30][32][33]. - **Who is Buying 10 - year Secondary Capital Bonds**: Insurance institutions are the main buyers of 10Y secondary capital bonds, with a net increase of about 1.6 billion yuan in 7 - 10Y secondary capital bonds in the past year. However, due to accounting treatment issues, insurance funds are more cautious in asset allocation. The increase in trading volume in the past month may be due to insurance companies' net purchases. In addition, securities companies, insurance companies, and fund products are the top three buyers in the past month, but the net purchase scale of securities companies is negative, indicating a stronger trading nature [36][42][43]. Investment Strategies for 10 - year Secondary Capital Bonds - **From the Perspective of Allocation**: The report uses interest rate spread and variety premium as key indicators to measure the relative value of 10Y secondary capital bonds. In terms of interest rate spread, when the funds are loose and the interest rate spread is high, the yield of 10Y secondary capital bonds may decline. In terms of variety premium, the trend of 10Y secondary capital bonds is highly consistent with that of ultra - long local bonds, with a "volatility amplification" effect in some periods [50][52][54]. - **From the Perspective of Trading**: The report reviews the term spread, the order of yield peaks of 10Y secondary capital bonds and other varieties, and the spread indicators between secondary capital bonds and urban investment bonds. Since 2025, the term spread between 10Y and 5Y secondary capital bonds has moved in the same direction as the 10Y secondary capital bond. In the interest rate upward cycle since 2023, 10Y secondary capital bonds have risen and fallen in the same direction as other varieties; in the downward cycle, almost all varieties reach the stage low at the same time. When the spread between 10Y secondary capital bonds and 10Y urban investment bonds turns negative, the yield of 10Y secondary capital bonds often has room to decline [59][66][76]. - **Summary of Trading Strategies**: The report provides a basic framework for investment decisions by reviewing historical experiences from the perspectives of allocation and trading, and summarizing the core judgment indicators and rules for the interest rate to reach the stage peak and bottom [81][82][83].

资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测；（注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 30 日收盘价） 2026 年 01 月 31 日 指南针（300803.SZ）2025 年报点评 业绩同比高增，证券业务协同效应渐显 glmszqdatemark [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 项目/年度 | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 2,146 | 2,769 | 3,277 | 3,736 | | 增长率（%） | 40.4 | 29.0 | 18.3 | 14.0 | | 归属母公司股东净利润（百万元） | 228 | 326 | 373 | 429 | | 增长率（%） | 118.7 | 43.1 | 14.2 | 15.3 | | 每股收益（元） | 0.37 | 0.53 | 0.61 | 0.70 | | PE | 332 | 232 | 203 | 176 | | PB | 27.1 | 24.3 | 21.7 | 19.3 | | 推荐 | 维持评级 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 2.146 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 228 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 118.74% [8] - The financial information service business showed steady growth, with revenue reaching 1.509 billion yuan, up 27.50% year-on-year, benefiting from a high market sentiment [8] - The report highlights the rapid development of the company's subsidiary, Maigao Securities, which generated revenue of 757 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56%, and a net profit of 165 million yuan, up 133% [8] - The company is expected to see continued revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 2.769 billion yuan in 2026, 3.277 billion yuan in 2027, and 3.736 billion yuan in 2028, with corresponding growth rates of 29.0%, 18.3%, and 14.0% respectively [8] Financial Forecasts - Revenue and profit forecasts for the company are as follows: - 2025: Revenue of 2.146 billion yuan, net profit of 228 million yuan - 2026: Revenue of 2.769 billion yuan, net profit of 326 million yuan - 2027: Revenue of 3.277 billion yuan, net profit of 373 million yuan - 2028: Revenue of 3.736 billion yuan, net profit of 429 million yuan [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.37 yuan in 2025, increasing to 0.53 yuan in 2026, 0.61 yuan in 2027, and 0.70 yuan in 2028 [9] Cost and Expense Analysis - The company has increased its advertising and online promotion expenses significantly, amounting to 653 million yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 66.79% [8] - Sales, management, and R&D expenses for 2025 were 1.111 billion yuan, 650 million yuan, and 164 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 38.1%, 43.8%, and 1.2% [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the benchmark index [2][8]. Core Insights - The company's main business is experiencing high growth driven by a robust antibody platform, which provides future flexibility and potential for expansion [1][8]. - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenue between 1.369 billion and 1.389 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.61% to 41.65%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 162 million and 182 million RMB, with a significant year-on-year increase of 384.26% to 443.88% [8]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the innovative animal models and preclinical CRO business, which are key drivers of revenue growth. The company has also made significant advancements in its antibody library and strategic partnerships, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 1.376 billion RMB in 2025, 1.845 billion RMB in 2026, and 2.416 billion RMB in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 40.4%, 34.1%, and 31.0% respectively [2][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 167 million RMB in 2025, 324 million RMB in 2026, and 530 million RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 399.3%, 93.3%, and 63.6% respectively [2][9]. - The report provides a detailed breakdown of the company's financial ratios, including a projected P/E ratio of 105 for 2025, decreasing to 33 by 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics over time [2][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook with expected stock price appreciation of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [2][11]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth driven by its core business and antibody platform, with expected revenues of RMB 1.376 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.4% [2][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach RMB 167 million in 2025, reflecting a staggering growth rate of 399.3% compared to the previous year [2][8]. - The company has made substantial advancements in its animal model and preclinical CRO business, which are key drivers of revenue growth, particularly in the first half of 2025 [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 980 million, RMB 1.376 billion, RMB 1.845 billion, and RMB 2.416 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 36.8%, 40.4%, 34.1%, and 31.0% [2][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from RMB 34 million in 2024 to RMB 530 million in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 108.8%, 399.3%, 93.3%, and 63.6% [2][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from RMB 0.08 in 2024 to RMB 1.19 in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [2][9]. Business Developments - The company has successfully expanded its humanized mouse model offerings, launching over 400 new models in 2025, which enhances its technological barriers and supports its goal of becoming a global hub for new drug development [8]. - Strategic partnerships have been established with leading pharmaceutical companies, including a global licensing agreement with BeiGene and an antibody licensing deal with Merck, which are expected to contribute to long-term revenue growth [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal sector, with specific recommendations for several companies [2][3]. Core Insights - Coal prices have stabilized and rebounded slightly before the holiday, with expectations for a stronger market post-holiday. Supply has tightened due to the upcoming holiday and production targets being met, while demand has increased due to cold weather affecting power plant consumption [10][11]. - The report forecasts that coal prices may return to a seasonal fluctuation range of 750-1000 RMB/ton, driven by domestic capacity reductions and a significant decrease in Indonesia's production targets for 2026 [10][11]. - Investment recommendations focus on companies with high spot market exposure and strong balance sheets, particularly those in Shanxi province, which are less affected by production limits [10][15]. Summary by Sections Company Earnings Forecasts, Valuation, and Ratings - Recommended companies include: - Jin控煤业 (Jin控 Coal Industry): EPS forecast of 1.68 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 9 [2]. - 山煤国际 (Shan Coal International): EPS forecast of 1.14 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 10 [2]. - 潞安环能 (Luan Environmental Energy): EPS forecast of 0.82 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 17 [2]. - 华阳股份 (Huayang Co.): EPS forecast of 0.62 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 15 [2]. - 兖矿能源 (Yankuang Energy): EPS forecast of 1.44 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 10 [2]. - 中国神华 (China Shenhua): EPS forecast of 2.95 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 14 [2]. - 陕西煤业 (Shaanxi Coal): EPS forecast of 2.31 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 10 [2]. - 中煤能源 (China Coal Energy): EPS forecast of 1.46 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 9 [2]. - 中广核矿业 (CGN Mining): EPS forecast of 0.04 HKD for 2024, with a PE ratio of 113 [2]. - 新集能源 (Xinjie Energy): EPS forecast of 0.92 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 8 [2]. - 淮北矿业 (Huaibei Mining): EPS forecast of 1.80 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 7 [2]. - 兰花科创 (Lanhua Sci-Tech): EPS forecast of 0.49 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 13 [2]. Market Performance - The coal sector has outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 4.0% compared to a 0.1% increase in the CSI 300 index [17][20]. - Notable performers include 陕西黑猫 (Shaanxi Black Cat) with a 14.50% increase and 盘江股份 (Panjiang Coal) with a 13.25% increase [23][24]. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights a tightening supply due to production limits and increased demand from power plants, leading to a potential price increase in the coal market [10][11]. - The focus on high dividend yield companies is emphasized as a defensive strategy amid uncertain international conditions [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the computer industry, particularly focusing on Tencent's AI business and its strategic direction [4]. Core Insights - Tencent's AI strategy has evolved from "Make AI Everywhere" to a clear focus on building an "intelligent agent ecosystem" by the second half of 2025, with WeChat agents as a core barrier [1]. - The company is accelerating its large model technology development and organizational structure to enhance its competitive edge in AI applications [1][27]. - Tencent's unique social ecosystem provides a competitive moat in the agent era, leveraging its C-end and B-end ecosystems to create a robust commercial landscape [2][3]. Summary by Sections Strategic Review - Tencent's AI strategy has transitioned through four phases: foundational capabilities (2016-2020), practical applications (2021-2023), product applications (2024), and ecological intelligence (2025 onwards) [18][19]. - The focus has shifted from broad AI capabilities to specific applications within the WeChat ecosystem, aiming to create a comprehensive intelligent agent [20][25]. Organizational Structure - In December 2025, Tencent upgraded its large model research structure, enhancing its core capabilities and accelerating the pace of AI commercialization [27]. - The recruitment of top talent, such as Yao Shunyu, is expected to boost Tencent's large model development competitiveness [28]. Product Layout - Tencent's AI product ecosystem is structured as "1+3+N," which includes one core large model, three major platforms, and numerous vertical applications [30]. - The product offerings include the self-developed Hunyuan large model, which supports various applications across consumer and enterprise sectors [36]. Ecological Advantages - Tencent's competitive edge in the agent era is rooted in its social ecosystem, which enhances user understanding and service capabilities [2]. - The C-end ecosystem, particularly WeChat, is positioned to expand monetization opportunities through AI agents [2][3]. Core Competitiveness - Tencent's ability to integrate vast and effective scenarios into its ecosystem is expected to provide significant commercial potential compared to competitors [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that support Tencent's AI ecosystem, including infrastructure and service providers, as well as those directly benefiting from AI agent applications [14].

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a trend of upward movement followed by narrow fluctuations, with volatility initially rising and then declining, indicating a need for digestion of previous gains [1] - The ETF outflows, particularly from the CSI 300, have put pressure on broad indices, with large-cap stocks underperforming compared to small-cap stocks [1] - There is an acceleration in thematic rotation, with some themes experiencing sharp rises and subsequent pullbacks, suggesting a short-term advantage for small-cap and growth stocks, but a need for rebalancing in the future [1] Group 2 - The gold stock recommendation logic for February 2026 includes companies benefiting from AI upgrades, solid growth in nickel powder business, and strong positions in the photovoltaic and alloy powder sectors [17] - Specific companies highlighted include BQX New Materials, which is expected to see rapid growth due to a significant expansion in production capacity and strong demand from major clients [17] - Industrial Fulian is noted for its deep integration with leading clients in the AI server market, with expectations of maintaining high growth rates due to its comprehensive supply chain capabilities [17] Group 3 - Financial data for the recommended stocks shows significant expected growth in earnings per share (EPS) for companies like BQX New Materials and Industrial Fulian, with projected EPS increasing from 0.33 to 2.09 and from 1.17 to 3.27 respectively from 2024 to 2026 [19] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies are also projected to decrease significantly, indicating potential for upward valuation adjustments [19] - Tencent Holdings is expected to see strong growth in advertising revenue and new game releases, contributing to its overall performance in 2026 [18]

[Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：钟渝梅 执业证书：S0590525110006 执业证书：S0590525110008 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：zhongyumei@glms.com.cn 更值得关注的是，在已召开两会的地方中，多数下调或维持了 2026 年增长目标， 我们认为或说明"十五五"开局之年，各地正从以往追求"增速"向注重"提质" 转变。这一结构性调整的方向，也从 1 月处于荣枯线（以上）的 EPMI、高技术制 造业 PMI 中得以印证。 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 1 月 PMI：开年的微妙信号 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 31 日 2026 年 1 月 PMI 点评 事件：1 月 31 日，国家统计局公布 2026 年 1 月中国采购经理指数运行情况。1 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.3%，比上月下降 0.8 个百分点，制造 业景气水平有所回落。 1 月 PMI 回落可能不完全归因于统计局所说的"传统淡季"，其背后有多重节奏 性因素交织。比如由于今 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanghai Jahwa (600315.SH) with a current price of 20.92 CNY [3]. Core Insights - Shanghai Jahwa is expected to turn a profit in 2025, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 240 to 290 million CNY, marking a significant turnaround from a loss in the previous year [9]. - The company is focusing on creating a matrix of high-performing products, leveraging its experience in developing successful single products [9]. - New product launches have shown promising results, particularly targeting younger consumers with innovative offerings [9]. - The company aims to solidify its market position through continuous product iteration and brand enhancement [9]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 6.48 billion CNY, 7.26 billion CNY, and 8.07 billion CNY, respectively, with growth rates of 14.2%, 12.1%, and 11.1% [10]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 263 million CNY, 401 million CNY, and 512 million CNY, reflecting growth rates of 131.5%, 52.6%, and 27.6% [10]. Financial Projections - The projected operating revenue for 2025 is 6,482 million CNY, with a growth rate of 14.2% compared to the previous year [2]. - The expected net profit for 2025 is 263 million CNY, a significant recovery from a loss of 833 million CNY in 2024 [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.39 CNY in 2025, improving from a loss of 1.24 CNY in 2024 [2]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to be 54 in 2025, decreasing to 27 by 2027 [2].