Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for various sectors, particularly in technology and construction, with a focus on government support and policy measures to stimulate growth [2][3][19]. Core Insights - The government has set a growth target of approximately 5% for 2025, with a CPI target of around 2%, reflecting a pragmatic approach to economic management [2]. - Fiscal policy is becoming more proactive, with an increase in the budget and local government special bonds, aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market [3][5]. - Emphasis on new productivity represented by AI and other emerging technologies, with a focus on modernizing the industrial system and promoting large-scale application demonstrations of new technologies [3][6][30]. - The resilience of Chinese exports is highlighted, with stable global market shares and an increase in the share of intermediate goods, indicating continued global reliance on China [7]. - Capital market reforms are deepening, with measures to attract long-term funds into the market, including increased allocations from insurance and public funds [10][19]. - The report outlines specific measures for the real estate sector, including demand stimulation and supply adjustments, to support market stabilization [23][21]. Summary by Sections Economic Goals and Policies - The government aims for a 5% growth target and a 2% CPI target, with fiscal policies becoming more aggressive, including a budget increase to 1.6 trillion yuan and an increase in local government special bonds to 4.4 trillion yuan [2][3]. Real Estate Market - The report emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market through various measures, including issuing special bonds to support local governments and expanding the use of special loans [5][21][23]. Emerging Industries - The focus is on AI, biomanufacturing, quantum technology, and 6G as key areas for future growth, with government support for large-scale applications of new technologies [6][30]. Export Resilience - Despite global supply chain disruptions, Chinese exports have shown resilience, maintaining stable market shares and increasing the share of intermediate goods [7]. Capital Market Reforms - The report discusses measures to deepen capital market reforms, including attracting long-term funds and optimizing stock issuance and merger regulations [10][19]. Construction and Building Materials - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds and 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds, which is expected to improve the order and payment situation for construction enterprises [15][16]. Technology and Innovation - The report highlights the importance of technological innovation, particularly in AI and related fields, and emphasizes the need for core technology self-reliance [30][32].

证券研究报告 2025.03.02 化工 基本面向好+估值低位，加配化工龙头正当时 SAC 执证编号：S0080522110003 SFC CE Ref：BVG980 tianhe.wang@cicc.com.cn 王天鹤 分析员 贾雄伟 分析员 裘孝锋 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080518090004 SFC CE Ref：BRF843 xiongwei.jia@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080521010004 SFC CE Ref：BRE717 xiaofeng.qiu@cicc.com.cn 82 91 100 109 118 127 2024-03 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 2025-02 沪深300 中金化工 行业动态 行业近况 本周基础化工板块下跌 0.27%，沪深 300 指数下跌 2.22%，基础化工板块 跑赢大盘 1.95 个百分点，涨跌幅居于所有板块第 12 位。 评论 我们认为目前化工行业面临以下四重利好因素： 一、两会召开在即，政策预期或强化供需优化逻辑。供给端，双碳目标下 《2024—2025 年节能降碳行动方案》严控炼油、乙烯等新增 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies Core Insights - The rapid evolution of large language models (LLMs) like DeepSeek-R1 has garnered significant attention from investors, particularly in their application to quantitative strategies in industry rotation, style rotation, and market timing tasks [1][2] - DeepSeek-R1 has demonstrated stable excess returns in industry rotation tasks, outperforming the equal-weighted industry return by 22.3% since 2024 [4] - The report emphasizes the unique advantages of LLMs in industry allocation tasks compared to stock selection and market timing, as industry performance is more influenced by macro policies and industry conditions [4] Summary by Sections Large Language Models and Alternative Data - LLMs are built on deep learning techniques and can process vast amounts of unstructured text data, making them suitable for extracting investment signals from alternative data sources [11][12] - The growth of alternative data is significant, with projections indicating that global data volume will reach 175ZB by 2025, highlighting the potential for LLMs to analyze non-traditional data types [13] Applications of LLMs in Investment - LLMs can assist quantitative analysts in efficiently constructing code, significantly reducing the development cycle from strategy logic to implementation [2][29] - They can also help analysts quickly find and summarize recent research, forming expert knowledge bases for specific inquiries [2][29] - The integration of LLMs with alternative data sources, such as news and research reports, enhances their effectiveness in strategy development [2][29] Performance of DeepSeek-R1 - The 671 billion parameter version of DeepSeek-R1 has shown superior performance in various tasks, particularly in industry rotation, with a stable excess return of 22.3% since 2024 [4] - The model's performance in size rotation strategies has a win rate of 54.33%, yielding an excess return of over 12% [4] - Market timing strategies have also yielded an excess return of approximately 18% since 2024, although with slightly less stability [4] Limitations of LLMs - Despite their rapid development, LLMs face limitations such as knowledge hallucination, randomness, memory constraints, and data leakage, which can impact the reliability of quantitative strategies [5] - The report highlights the need for caution regarding the accuracy of outputs generated by LLMs, particularly in high-stakes investment contexts [5][43] Future Trends - The report discusses the ongoing evolution of LLMs, emphasizing the importance of cross-modal capabilities and the integration of various data types to enhance their application in investment strategies [26][27]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Economic activity is expected to slow down marginally due to the policy window period and external disturbances such as the Spring Festival and high base effects from the previous year [1] - Industrial production growth is projected to decline to approximately 5.2% year-on-year for January-February 2025, down from 6.2% in December 2024 [2] - Consumer spending shows moderate growth, with retail sales growth expected to be around 3.4% year-on-year, reflecting a slight decline compared to the previous quarter [3] - Fixed asset investment growth is anticipated to remain stable at 3.2% for January-February 2025, with infrastructure investment expected to grow around 10% [4] - Real estate sales growth has narrowed, with a year-on-year increase of 2% in major cities, indicating a lag in the transmission from sales to investment [5] - Export growth is expected to decline to approximately 3.0% year-on-year, influenced by higher base effects and tariff disturbances [6] Summary by Sections Economic Activity - Economic activities are expected to be impacted by the policy window period and seasonal factors, leading to a potential slowdown in growth [1] - The industrial production growth rate is projected to decrease due to high base effects from the previous year and the timing of the Spring Festival [2] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending is showing moderate growth, with retail sales growth lower than previous holiday periods, indicating a need for further policy support [3] Investment - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to hold steady, with infrastructure investment showing signs of recovery [4] Real Estate - Real estate sales have shown a decrease in growth rate, with a significant drop in land transaction volumes, indicating a lag in investment recovery [5] Exports - Export growth is projected to decline, influenced by external factors such as tariffs and base effects from the previous year [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI+Finance sector, suggesting a potential inflection point for scaling [6]. Core Insights - The AI+Finance sector is entering a new cycle of comprehensive empowerment driven by the convergence of technology availability, data completeness, and payment certainty, highlighting the need to focus on the opportunities for industrial value reassessment brought by intelligent reconstruction [3][4]. - Financial institutions are increasingly prioritizing technology investments, with a reported expenditure of CNY 355.82 billion in 2023, a 5.4% year-on-year increase for state-owned banks [4]. - The report emphasizes that the financial industry's high data density and strong process standardization create a natural environment for AI empowerment in areas such as risk control and marketing [4]. Summary by Sections Technology and Investment Trends - The report notes that the financial IT sector is expected to transition from "tool empowerment" to "intelligent reconstruction," with significant investments from major state-owned banks and the securities industry [4]. - Demand for high-performance, low-cost AI solutions like DeepSeek is increasing, leading to enhanced adoption among clients [5]. Application Scenarios - In banking, intelligent marketing and risk control are identified as primary application scenarios, with companies like Yuxin Technology and WeBank integrating DeepSeek into their operations [5]. - The insurance sector is leveraging AI to enhance product design and underwriting capabilities, with companies like New Knowledge Software utilizing DeepSeek for intelligent upgrades [5]. - In the brokerage sector, AI is being applied in investment research, due diligence, and compliance, with firms like E Fund and XunTu Technology enhancing their platforms through AI integration [5]. Valuation and Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on financial IT companies such as Yuxin Technology, Changliang Technology, and Shenzhou Information, as well as leading credit technology firms like Qifu Technology and Lexin [6]. - The coverage ratings and target prices for these companies remain unchanged [6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or market discussed Core Insights - The recent downturn in the US stock market, particularly in tech stocks, has raised concerns about the sustainability of the previous bullish trend, especially with significant declines in major companies like Amazon (-10%), Google (-15%), and Tesla (-20%) [1][20] - The report emphasizes that the current economic slowdown is not unexpected and can be viewed as a natural consequence of previous high interest rates, which are expected to eventually stimulate demand as they decline [3][5] - Concerns regarding tariff risks and their potential impact on supply-side inflation are highlighted, indicating that these risks could hinder the positive effects of declining interest rates [6][8] Summary by Sections Economic Growth and Interest Rates - The report discusses the cyclical nature of the US economy, noting that recent data weakness is a result of high interest rates from the previous year, which are now expected to decline and potentially boost economic activity [3][4] - It is noted that the market's fears of recession may be overstated, as historical patterns suggest that such fears often lead to unexpected resilience in economic performance [2][5] Tariff Risks - The report outlines the increasing concerns over tariff policies introduced by the Trump administration, which could lead to supply-side inflation and complicate the economic recovery process [6][7] - The potential for tariffs to create inflationary pressures is acknowledged, with the report suggesting that these risks are currently difficult to assess definitively [8][9] AI and Technology Sector - The emergence of DeepSeek has disrupted the narrative surrounding US AI dominance, leading to a reevaluation of tech stock valuations, particularly in the context of the Hong Kong market outperforming the US market [10][11] - Despite short-term valuation adjustments, the report argues that the fundamental strength of leading tech companies remains robust, and the overall trend in the tech sector is not expected to reverse [11][12] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the market will continue to grapple with unresolved risks in the short term, but anticipates potential turning points in economic indicators and policy developments by March-April [12][13] - Recommendations include considering opportunities in US Treasury bonds and being prepared to re-enter the US stock market after significant declines, with a focus on maintaining a strong dollar [15][16]

全球资金流向监测 证券研究报告 2025.03.01 南向创 2021 年初以来最大流入 刘刚，CFA 分析员 吴薇 分析员 王牧遥 联系人 SAC 执证编号：S0080512030003 SFC CE Ref：AVH867 kevin.liu@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080123060036 muyao.wang@cicc.com.cn 本周焦点：主动外资流出收窄，被动外资流入小幅放缓；南向流入扩大 本周资金面值得注意的变化是：1）EPFR 数据显示，截至本周三（2 月 26 日），主动外资继续流出中国市场，被动外资 流入小幅放缓；2）互联互通方面，北向资金日均成交规模较上周增加，南向资金加速流入，周度流入规模创 2021 年 1 月以来新高；3）全球股票、债券与货币市场加速流入；4）美股流入扩大，新兴流出扩大。 国内资金面，南向资金加速流入。本周南向资金流入继续大幅增至 749.7 亿港元，创沪深港通开通后周度流入规模次高 1，仅次于 2021 年 1 月 22 日当周，单日净流入均达到百亿港元以上。整体上，本周南向成交占比维持在 30%，南向持 股市值则占港股主板总市值约 10%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or currency involved. Core Insights - The Japanese yen has appreciated over 4% against the US dollar since the beginning of 2025, making it the strongest currency among G10 and Asian currencies [1][8] - The appreciation of the yen is primarily driven by trading factors related to the narrowing interest rate differential between the US and Japan, rather than reflecting genuine demand from Japan [2][11] - The underlying reasons for the yen's appreciation include rising inflation in Japan, expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, and the resulting upward pressure on Japanese bond yields [2][18] Summary by Sections Yen Appreciation Factors - The yen's appreciation is largely attributed to speculative trading by foreign investors during non-Japanese trading hours, indicating a lack of genuine demand from Japan [2][12] - Japan's inflation rate reached 4.0% year-on-year in January 2025, the highest among major developed economies, driven by both cost-push and demand-pull factors [2][18] Capital Flows - There is a persistent net outflow of funds from Japan, with the trade balance showing a deficit of approximately 2.7 trillion yen in January 2025 [3][27] - The financial account indicates continued capital outflows, with Japanese investors increasingly investing in foreign stocks, particularly in the US [32][37] Future Yen Exchange Rate Outlook - In the short term, the yen may appreciate due to trading factors, but long-term sustained appreciation is unlikely due to structural capital outflows from Japan [40][43] - Historical patterns suggest that significant yen appreciation typically requires economic weakness in the US or global risks [40][43] Interest Rate Expectations - The Bank of Japan is expected to continue raising interest rates, with a potential terminal rate around 1.5% [22][40] - The market is pricing in limited further increases in Japanese interest rates, which may not support substantial yen appreciation [43] Speculative Trading Impact - The current net short positions in the yen are limited, suggesting that a significant reversal leading to sharp yen appreciation is unlikely [5][45]

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Outperform" [9] Core Viewpoints - The coal price has been under pressure due to a loose supply-demand balance, primarily driven by supply factors. Despite the price decline, coal prices remain at a historically moderate to high level [3][12] - Domestic coal production is at a historical high, with significant recovery in output observed post the Spring Festival, despite weak price conditions [27][39] - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in demand as coal consumption rises in the latter half of Q2 2025, contingent on potential production cuts materializing [3][5] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The supply of thermal coal has been relatively stable, with production levels remaining high despite declining prices. As of February 28, the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal fell to 699 CNY/ton, a 9% year-to-date decline [4][13] - The report notes that while domestic demand for electricity and heating coal has been lackluster, industrial demand, particularly from steel and chemical sectors, shows resilience with a year-on-year increase in iron production of approximately 1.7% and a 10% increase in chemical coal demand [39] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report highlights that the coal supply remains sticky in the short term due to local economic and employment considerations, making large-scale production cuts unlikely [5][63] - Current coal inventories are at a historical high of around 600 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 40-60 million tons. However, this increase alone is not expected to dictate coal price trends, as seasonal demand may lead to inventory reduction [50][51] Valuation and Recommendations - The report suggests that some high-cost domestic and international coal companies may face financial losses in Q1 2025, presenting a potential opportunity for investment in competitive cost leaders such as Shaanxi Coal and Coal Energy [6][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring cost structures, as the average coal production cost has risen significantly, which may lead to financial pressures on companies [69][70]

港股策略专题 证券研究报告 2025.03.02 反弹结束了么？ 市场回顾：经历了由 DeepSeek 引发的中国资产气势如虹的重估叙事后，在本周恒指一度突破我们给出的重要阻力位 24,000 点附近后旋即大幅回调，为自 1 月中旬以来的首次周度下跌。指数层面，前期领涨的恒生科技本周大跌 5.3%， 而 MSCI 中国、恒生指数与恒生国企的跌幅也分别达到了 4.2%、3.3%与 3.6%。行业层面，电信服务（-7.6%）与媒体 娱乐（-7.5%）大幅回调，可选消费（-5.3%）跌幅同样靠前。相反，房地产板块则逆势上涨 6.2%。 前景展望：在经历了 1 月中旬以来尤其是春节假期后令人"瞠目结舌"的大涨后，随着短期情绪的透支、国内重要会议 临近，以及外围扰动再度升温，港股市场在本周大幅回调，周五当天恒生科技大跌近 6%。从一定意义上，市场的回撤其 实并不意外，甚至是在预期内的，也完全符合我们在过去两周向投资者持续提示的信息：一方面是短期情绪是明显透支 的；另一方面是驱动本轮上涨资金主要还是交易型资金而非长线资金，尤其是上周南向资金追涨更放大了亢奋程度。我 们在 2 月 16 日发布的《中国资产的重估？》中明确指 ...