Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation industry is "Overweight" [2]. Core Insights - The domestic aviation market has shown strong performance during the National Day holiday, with passenger transport volume averaging approximately 2.15 million people per day, a year-on-year increase of 31% compared to 2019 and 4% compared to 2024 [1]. - The average ticket price (including fuel) has increased by 7% compared to 2019 and 3% compared to 2024, indicating a positive trend in pricing despite some regional weather disruptions [1]. - The industry is expected to enter a "golden era" over the next 5-10 years, driven by supply chain improvements and increasing demand, with major airlines likely to continue reporting strong earnings [1]. Summary by Sections Passenger Transport Data - Daily average domestic passenger transport volume: 2.15 million, +31% YoY vs. 2019, +4% YoY vs. 2024 [1]. - Daily average domestic flight volume: 14,500 flights, +19% YoY vs. 2019, +2% YoY vs. 2024 [1]. - International passenger transport volume: 380,000, -13% YoY vs. 2019, +11% YoY vs. 2024 [1]. Market Perception - There are misconceptions regarding the recovery of Boeing and Airbus production capacity, which may not reverse the aging trend of aircraft [1]. - Current low domestic ticket prices do not necessarily correlate with poor airline profitability, as many airlines have seen international market recovery exceeding pre-pandemic levels [1]. Future Outlook - The aviation industry is expected to experience significant improvements in profitability, with a shift from losses to profitability anticipated in the coming years [1]. - The supply chain issues leading to aircraft shortages are projected to persist for 5-10 years, creating a favorable environment for airlines [1]. Investment Recommendations - Continued focus on the aviation sector is recommended, with specific attention to airlines such as China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, among others [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, particularly focusing on technology-driven sectors such as robotics, AI, and low-altitude economy [5]. Core Insights - The fourth batch of "trade-in" funds has been allocated, signaling the end of automotive subsidies, while the exemption from purchase tax for new energy vehicles will be halved starting next year, increasing costs for consumers [5][10]. - The report suggests that in light of uncertain consumer spending, investors should focus on "future industries" and companies with strong growth potential [5]. - The report highlights significant sales data, with retail sales of passenger cars reaching 650,000 units in the 39th week of 2025, showing a month-on-month increase of 27.95% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.02% [5]. Industry Updates - Traditional energy vehicle sales were approximately 280,000 units, up 32.70% month-on-month but down 15.07% year-on-year, while new energy vehicle sales reached 370,000 units, up 24.58% month-on-month and up 13.15% year-on-year, resulting in a penetration rate of 56.92% for new energy vehicles [5]. - The automotive industry index rose by 1.70% this week, closing at 8244.78 points, which is lower than the 1.99% increase in the CSI 300 index [15][20]. - The report notes that 151 automotive stocks rose while 133 fell, with the largest gainers being Shanzi Gaoke, Songyuan Co., and Huamao Technology, which increased by 21.1%, 19.5%, and 12.1% respectively [20]. Market Conditions - The total transaction value in the automotive sector reached 379.87 billion yuan this week, with a daily increase of 11.52% [5]. - The report indicates a decline in raw material prices for both traditional and new energy vehicles, with a decrease of 1.3% and 0.1% respectively over the past week [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic leading manufacturers such as NIO, Xiaomi, Xpeng, and Li Auto, as well as component manufacturers with strong performance and growth potential like Fuyao Glass and New Spring [5]. - It also suggests monitoring state-owned enterprise reforms, particularly with SAIC and Dongfeng, as potential investment opportunities [5].

策 略 研 究 新股分析 2025 年 10 月 09 日 西安奕材：我国 12 英寸硅片头部厂 商 ——注册制新股纵览 20251009 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 证券分析师 彭文玉 A0230517080001 pengwy@swsresearch.com 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 任奕璇 A0230525050002 renyx2@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱敏 (8621)23297818× zhumin@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 申 购 策 略 告 相关研究 - ⚫ AHP 得分：剔除、考虑流动性溢价因素后，测算西安奕材 AHP 得分为 2.49 分、2.58 分， 分别位于科创体系 AHP 模型总分 40.9%分位、44.0%分位，处于中游偏下、中游偏上水平。 ⚫ 本次网下发行采取约定限售方式：A₁类限售期 9 个月、限售比例 60%，A₂类、A₃类及 B 类 限售期均为 6 个月，限售比例分别为 45%、25%、25%，对应配售比例要求为 A₁类≥2.25×A₂ ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the economic leading indicators are showing signs of a slight recovery, with liquidity remaining slightly loose and credit indicators improving [3][12][19] - The economic forecast model suggests that October 2025 is at a turning point, with expectations for a slight upward trend over the next three months before entering a plateau [12][13] - The report highlights that the focus of the market is shifting towards economic indicators, surpassing liquidity concerns, with increased attention on economic and PPI-related factors [26][27] Group 2 - The liquidity environment is characterized by rising interest rates, with long-term rates exceeding the average, while overall liquidity remains slightly loose due to positive monetary supply signals [19][22] - Credit indicators have shown a slight positive trend, although the overall credit volume and structure remain low, indicating a mixed outlook for credit conditions [23][24] - The asset allocation perspective suggests a high allocation to gold due to strong momentum, while equity allocations have been slightly reduced [24][25] Group 3 - The industry selection is leaning towards sectors that are sensitive to economic conditions but less sensitive to liquidity, with a notable increase in defensive and consumer attributes [28][29] - The report identifies specific industries with the highest sensitivity to economic changes, including utilities and coal, while also highlighting sectors like media and consumer electronics for credit sensitivity [28][29] - The overall balance in industry selection reflects a decline in growth attributes, emphasizing a more defensive investment strategy [29]

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance compared to the overall market [8]. Core Insights - The National Day holiday data for the aviation industry exceeded expectations, signaling an upcoming golden era for airlines. The domestic aviation market showed stable performance despite adverse weather conditions, with daily passenger transport volume averaging approximately 2.15 million, a 31% increase compared to 2019 and a 4% increase compared to 2024 [2]. - The growth in passenger volume is primarily dependent on the increase in aircraft numbers, and a low growth rate in passenger volume amidst high load factors is seen as a positive indicator for profitability. If fleet size does not grow, passenger volume may stagnate or decline, leading to potential supply-demand mismatches and price fluctuations [2]. - The report highlights two misconceptions in the market: first, the belief that the recovery of Boeing and Airbus production capacity will reverse the aging trend of aircraft; second, the notion that lower ticket prices will negatively impact airline profitability. The report argues that many domestic airlines have already surpassed 2019 levels in international market recovery, and as long as the reduction in unit costs exceeds the decline in unit revenues, airline profitability will improve [2]. - The Chinese civil aviation sector is entering a golden age, expected to last 5-10 years, driven by supply chain improvements. Short-term indicators include record profits for major airlines during the National Day holiday, while medium-term expectations include a transition from losses to profitability for airlines [2]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on the aviation sector, with a strong supply-side logic and elastic demand. Airlines such as China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Southern Airlines are highlighted as potential investment opportunities, along with global aircraft leasing companies and airport sectors showing continuous recovery [2][3]. Summary by Sections - **Passenger Transport Data**: Daily domestic passenger transport volume reached approximately 2.15 million, with a 31% increase from 2019 and a 4% increase from 2024. Daily domestic flight volume averaged about 14,500 flights, a 19% increase from 2019 and a 2% increase from 2024 [2]. - **International Market Performance**: Daily international passenger transport volume averaged around 380,000, a 13% decrease from 2019 but an 11% increase from 2024. The average ticket price for international flights decreased by 12% compared to 2024 [2]. - **Company Valuation Table**: Key companies in the aviation sector, such as China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines, have been rated as "Outperform" or "Buy," with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth indicating strong future performance [3].

Financing & Review - In September 2025, the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) issued 4 new stocks, raising a total of CNY 1.089 billion; from January to September 2025, a total of 16 new stocks were issued, raising CNY 5.027 billion[5] - As of the end of September, there are 9 companies that have passed the review but not yet registered, with a proposed fundraising of CNY 2.588 billion; 6 companies have been registered but not yet issued, with a proposed fundraising of CNY 1.210 billion[5] Subscription & Issuance - The median first-day increase for the 3 new stocks listed in September was +304.65%, with individual increases of +736.78%, +304.65%, and +120.34% for Sanxie Electric, Shichang Co., and Jinhua New Materials respectively[3] - The theoretical subscription yield for the new stocks Sanxie Electric, Shichang Co., and Jinhua New Materials was +0.165%, +0.076%, and +0.080% respectively[3] Market Trends & Predictions - The cumulative yield for new stock subscriptions in 2024 is +4.01% (23 new stocks issued), while the cumulative theoretical yield for new stock subscriptions from January to September 2025 is +1.75% (14 new stocks issued)[3] - The average top subscription amount in September 2025 was CNY 12.93 million, with a median capital freeze range of CNY 649.59 billion to CNY 851.19 billion[5] Investment Analysis - The BSE is expected to maintain a regular issuance pace, with 7 companies registered and 4 approved in September; the outlook suggests a weekly issuance rhythm is likely to continue[6] - There are currently 15 companies that have passed the review and are awaiting issuance, indicating a rich pipeline of quality projects[6] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected issuance speed, lower-than-expected stock price increases, macroeconomic downturns, and rapid growth in new stock subscription accounts[6]

Group 1 - The report indicates a slight recovery in economic indicators, with liquidity remaining slightly loose and credit indicators showing improvement. The macroeconomic dimensions suggest an overall direction of economic improvement, weak liquidity, and loose credit [3][6][8] - The economic leading indicators are expected to show a slight upward trend over the next three months, indicating a bottoming out in October 2025, with a prolonged period of slight recovery compared to last month [12][13] - The liquidity environment is characterized by rising interest rates, with long-term rates exceeding the moving average, while overall liquidity remains slightly loose due to positive monetary supply signals [19][22] Group 2 - The report emphasizes a high allocation to gold, with a weakening view on bonds and a slight reduction in A-share allocation. The current economic upturn, tight liquidity, and favorable credit conditions support this allocation strategy [24][26] - Market focus has shifted towards economic indicators, surpassing liquidity concerns, with a notable increase in attention to economic and PPI-related factors since September [26][28] - The industry selection is inclined towards sectors sensitive to economic changes, less sensitive to liquidity, and sensitive to credit conditions. The report highlights a decrease in growth attributes and an increase in defensive and consumer attributes, indicating a balanced approach [28][30][29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.56 to 4.76 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 212% to 225%, with a median estimate of 4.66 billion yuan [8] - The increase in profits is primarily driven by rising refrigerant prices and improved product quality and sales scale at Shaowu Yonghe, which has been profitable since Q4 2024 [8] - The company has successfully launched new liquid cooling products and is expanding its product line into high-value fluorinated polymers and fine chemicals [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 5,875 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 27.6% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 646 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 156.9% [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.27 yuan for 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 22 [2] Market Data - As of September 30, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 28.38 yuan, with a market capitalization of 14,223 million yuan [3] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 3.2 and a dividend yield of 0.88% [3] Performance Analysis - The company has shown a significant increase in net profit for Q3 2025, with estimates ranging from 1.85 to 2.05 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 448% to 507% [8] - The prices of key refrigerants have risen, with R32, R125, and R134a showing significant price increases in Q3 2025 [8] - The operational efficiency and product quality at Shaowu Yonghe have improved, leading to a positive profit outlook for Q3 2025 [8]

Group 1: Company Overview - The report highlights that New Australia Co. (新澳股份) is a direct beneficiary of the rising Australian wool prices, which have recently reached record highs, indicating a strong growth potential for the company [2][10][12] - The Australian wool auction index has surged by 112 Australian cents per kilogram to 1565 Australian cents per kilogram, marking a 7.7% increase month-on-month and a 41.8% increase year-on-year, representing the fifth-largest weekly increase since data publication began [2][12] - The report anticipates that the company's net profit for the years 2025 to 2027 will be adjusted to 460 million, 550 million, and 610 million yuan respectively, reflecting an increase from previous estimates [3][12] Group 2: Industry Analysis - The report indicates that the wool market is in the early stages of a price increase cycle, potentially comparable to peaks observed in 2011 and 2018, driven by supply constraints and improving demand [2][12] - The Australian wool production is projected to decline by 8.1% year-on-year, with a significant reduction in sheep numbers, which is expected to maintain upward pressure on prices [12] - The report notes that the overall demand for the white liquor industry is expected to decline by 20-30% during the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with inventory levels increasing by 10-20% [3][13]

Group 1: Key Insights on New Australia Co. (新澳股份) - The Australian wool auction prices have reached record highs, with the Eastern Market Indicator rising by 112 AUD cents/kg to 1565 AUD cents/kg, marking a 7.7% increase month-on-month and a 41.8% increase year-on-year [2][12]. - The current price increase is seen as being in its early stages, with potential to match previous peaks from 2011 and 2018 due to supply constraints and improving demand [2][12]. - New Australia Co. is positioned to benefit directly from the wool cycle, with expectations of simultaneous increases in volume, price, and profit, leading to significant performance elasticity [2][12]. Group 2: Financial Projections for New Australia Co. - The company is expected to see an increase in net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with projected profits of 460 million, 550 million, and 610 million CNY respectively, up from previous estimates [3]. - The price increase in wool is anticipated to lead to higher product prices, prompting an upward revision of gross margins and average prices for wool products [3]. Group 3: Insights on the White Wine Industry - The white wine industry is expected to see a year-on-year demand decline of 20-30% during the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with inventory levels increasing by 10-20% [13]. - The performance of banquet consumption is below expectations, and gift demand is also declining, indicating a challenging market environment [13]. - The industry is anticipated to face pressure on financial statements, with some companies beginning to show signs of stress in Q2 2025, which may continue into Q1 2026 [13][14]. Group 4: Recommendations for White Wine Stocks - Investors are advised to remain patient and wait for opportunities, focusing on high-dividend stocks as a long-term investment strategy [13]. - Key recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, with attention also on Wuliangye, Jianshe Yuan, and Yingjia Gongjiu [13].