Overview - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, exceeding market expectations and nearing the "Sam Rule" threshold of 4.7%[1] - Non-farm payrolls added 64,000 jobs in November, slightly above the expected 50,000, while October saw a decrease of 105,000 jobs[1][7] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.1% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%[1][10] Employment Dynamics - The rise in unemployment is attributed to temporary layoffs and an increase in labor supply, with the labor force participation rate rising to 62.5%[2][11] - The October job losses were primarily due to the government's "deferred resignation" plan, impacting non-farm employment significantly[2][18] - Employment trends varied across sectors, with construction and healthcare showing improvements, while finance and information sectors remained weak[2][18] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in January 2026 is uncertain and will depend on December's economic data[3] - Current unemployment data may be distorted, and the Fed's Chair Powell indicated that employment figures could be misleading[3] - Despite the rise in unemployment, retail performance in October was strong, suggesting resilience in consumer spending[3]

Group 1 - The global Fab market is expected to grow by 27% year-on-year in 2025, driven by demand from GPU/ASIC and consumer electronics orders [3][9][23] - The advanced process is in an expansion phase, significantly boosted by AI demand, with the Chinese high-end AI chip market projected to grow over 60% in 2026 [3][23][26] - Domestic Fab manufacturers are focusing on mature processes, benefiting from the recovery of the domestic market, with a projected share of over 75% in global mature process capacity additions by 2026 [3][46][53] Group 2 - Key companies to watch include SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and Jinghong Integrated Circuit, which are positioned to benefit from local manufacturing and the expansion of production capacity [3][41][71] - The third phase of the National Big Fund has not yet entered large-scale project investments, but it is expected to become a capital expenditure increment for the Fab industry in 2026 [3][39][40] - The domestic supply chain is gradually proving itself, with companies like Cambrian and Huawei leading the way in local AI chip production and supply chain development [3][30][34]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The monetary policy in 2026 will continue to align with fiscal measures, supporting debt sustainability and fiscal health [2][12] - Interest rate cuts in 2026 may remain restrained due to reduced urgency from anti-involution trends, with a higher probability of one rate cut rather than two [2][12] - The international economic struggle will have financial implications, particularly for the internationalization of the RMB amid intensified US-China competition [2][12] Group 2: Misunderstandings about "Deposit Migration" - There are three main misunderstandings regarding "deposit migration": underestimating excess savings, the speed of market entry, and the investment attributes of excess savings [3][14] - The potential scale of excess savings is estimated to exceed 9.4 trillion, indicating significant funds could enter the stock market [3][14] - The speed of funds entering the market may be underestimated due to reliance on non-bank deposit tracking, which does not accurately reflect the migration of resident funds [3][14] Group 3: Huahai Pharmaceutical (600521) Analysis - Huahai Pharmaceutical is a leading domestic producer of specialty APIs, with a strong focus on global formulation strategies [4][13] - The company has applied for over 70 domestic and international patents in the field of biopharmaceuticals, particularly in immunology and oncology [4][17] - The projected revenue for Huahai Pharmaceutical from 2025 to 2027 is expected to be 8.632 billion, 9.413 billion, and 10.282 billion respectively, with a target market value indicating a potential upside of 30.04% [4][17]

Group 1: Aluminum vs. Copper in Air Conditioning - The shift from copper to aluminum in air conditioning systems is driven by the copper-aluminum price gap, energy efficiency standards upgrades, and refrigerant replacements, with microchannel technology becoming increasingly prevalent[3] - The competitive landscape for microchannel heat exchangers is dominated by three players: Sanhua, Mahler/Delphi, and Danfoss[3] - Sanhua's revenue growth has slowed, indicating a need for innovation and adaptation in the market[14] Group 2: Nuclear Fusion Developments - The nuclear fusion sector is expected to accelerate due to continuous technological breakthroughs and policy support, with significant project milestones achieved in 2025[19] - The global nuclear fusion market is projected to reach approximately $479.5 billion by 2029, with a total of 196 fusion devices expected by 2035[40][42] - Key investment opportunities in nuclear fusion include core supporting entities and high-value segments within the supply chain, such as superconducting magnets and power systems[46] Group 3: Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector is witnessing stable or potentially increasing core players due to cost reduction trends, with a focus on satellite manufacturing and launch services[3] - The domestic satellite constellation projects, such as G60 and GW, are set to significantly increase satellite launches, with G60 planning to deploy 1,296 satellites by the end of 2027 and 15,000 by 2030[60] - The market for satellite services and ground equipment is expected to dominate, accounting for over 90% of the commercial aerospace value chain[52]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The monetary policy in 2026 will continue to align with fiscal measures, supporting debt sustainability and fiscal health [2] - Interest rate cuts in 2026 may remain restrained due to reduced urgency from anti-involution trends [2] - The international economic struggle will have financial implications, particularly for the internationalization of the RMB amid intensified US-China tensions [2][13] Group 2: Misunderstandings about "Deposit Migration" - There are three main misunderstandings regarding "deposit migration": underestimating excess savings, the speed of market entry, and the investment attributes of excess savings [3][15] - The potential scale of household savings entering the stock market could exceed one trillion yuan, driven by a significant increase in excess savings [3][15] - The speed of funds entering the market may be underestimated due to reliance on non-bank deposit tracking, which does not accurately reflect the migration of household funds [3][15] Group 3: Huahai Pharmaceutical (600521) Insights - Huahai Pharmaceutical integrates raw materials and formulations, establishing a solid foundation for growth, with a projected revenue of 5.759 billion yuan in 2024 [4][14] - The company is focusing on innovative drug development in immunology and oncology, with over 70 patents filed and several projects in clinical stages [4][18] - The target market capitalization for Huahai Pharmaceutical is estimated at 34.4 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 30.04% [4][18] Group 4: Zhongxin Innovation (03931) Overview - Zhongxin Innovation is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for energy storage and electric vehicle batteries, with a revenue of 16.4 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [19][20] - The company is expanding its market share and enhancing its product offerings, with a focus on high-end battery products and a global production network [19][20] - The projected net profit for Zhongxin Innovation is expected to grow significantly, reaching 3.84 billion yuan by 2027 [20]

上 市 公 司 有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 12 月 16 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 40.90 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8757.93 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 61.45/29.60 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 10,652.53 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 26,045.30 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.9078 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -4% 46% 96% 146% HSCEI 小米集团-W 资料来源：Bloomberg 2025 年 12 月 16 日 小米集团-W (01810) 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 ——不同以往，高端化战略与人车家全生态赋予更强韧题 投资要点： 相关研究 证券分析师 杨海晏 A0230518070003 yanghy@swsresearch.com 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 陈俊兆 A0230124100001 chenjz@swsresearch.com 联系人 财务数据及盈利预测 ...

Group 1: Misunderstandings about Excess Savings - The scale of excess savings is underestimated; excess savings exceed excess deposits, with a potential market entry scale of over 9.4 trillion yuan[2][33] - The current household savings rate has reached a 15-year high of 29.8%, indicating a significant increase in excess savings[2][33] - The market's calculation of excess savings based on deposits alone (approximately 3.7 trillion yuan) ignores the impact of wealth management products[2][30] Group 2: Underestimating Market Entry Speed - The use of "non-bank deposits" to track the scale of "deposit migration" may lead to underestimations of household funds entering the market, as this figure includes interbank business disturbances[4][38] - Non-bank deposits amount to 35 trillion yuan, while the actual funds entering the stock market (settlement margin) are only 2.8 trillion yuan, indicating a significant discrepancy[4][39] - The "non-bank net liabilities" indicator provides a better tracking mechanism for household market entry, showing substantial increases since September 2024[4][41] Group 3: Investment Sensitivity of Excess Savings - Unlike overseas experiences, China's excess savings since 2021 have a stronger investment attribute, primarily driven by changes in asset allocation during real estate adjustments[6][59] - The reduction in housing expenditure has significantly contributed to excess savings, with annual housing consumption dropping from 7.7 trillion yuan in 2021 to 3.1 trillion yuan by 2025[6][59] - Areas with high excess savings are experiencing more pronounced downward pressure on housing prices, indicating a pressing need for asset reallocation among residents[6][64]

Group 1: Misunderstandings about Excess Savings - The market underestimates the scale of excess savings, which is greater than excess deposits, with current excess savings estimated at over 9.4 trillion yuan[2][34]. - The household savings rate has reached a near 15-year high of 29.8%, indicating a significant increase in excess savings[2][34]. - The potential scale of household savings entering the stock market could exceed 1 trillion yuan, based on historical experiences from previous bull markets[3][38]. Group 2: Misunderstandings about Market Entry Speed - The use of "non-bank deposits" to track the scale of "deposit migration" may lead to underestimations, as this figure includes interbank business disturbances[4][42]. - Non-bank deposits total approximately 35 trillion yuan, while the actual funds entering the stock market are only about 2.8 trillion yuan, indicating a mismatch in tracking methods[4][42]. - The "non-bank net liabilities" indicator provides a better tracking mechanism for household market entry, showing significant increases since September 2024[4][44]. Group 3: Misunderstandings about Investment Attributes - Unlike overseas experiences, China's excess savings since 2021 have a stronger investment attribute, primarily driven by changes in asset allocation during real estate adjustments[6][63]. - The reduction in housing expenditures has significantly contributed to excess savings, with annual housing consumption dropping from 7.7 trillion yuan to 3.1 trillion yuan by 2025[6][63]. - Areas with high excess savings are experiencing more pronounced downward pressure on housing prices, suggesting a greater urgency for asset reallocation among residents[6][69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission has recently intensified efforts in reforming the REITs market, emphasizing the acceleration of commercial real - estate REITs pilot projects, and promoting the high - quality development of the market through measures such as enhancing system inclusiveness and flexibility [4]. - In the first half of December, the REITs market declined, hitting a new low since the second half of 2025, with most sectors in the red, and market trading volume and liquidity hitting new lows [4]. - The interest rate spread between REITs and dividend stocks turned negative, and the valuations of most REITs assets remained high, but the internal rate of return (IRR) generally increased [4]. - Huaxia Zhonghe Clean Energy REIT will conduct offline inquiries on December 17th, and Huaxia Anbo Warehouse Logistics REIT will be listed on December 19th. The valuation difference of Anbo Warehouse Logistics REIT compared to comparable REITs has widened [4]. - The expansion plan of AVIC Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT was approved, and three REITs will be lifted from the restricted - sale period in the second half of December. There is one new application and one new acceptance in the queue of REITs projects, and Jinjiang Group may issue hotel - related REITs [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commercial Real - estate REITs Promising, Market Trading Volume Shrinking to the Bottom - **Policy Support**: The CSRC is promoting the implementation of commercial real - estate REITs pilot projects and enhancing system inclusiveness and flexibility [4][7][8]. - **Market Performance**: In the first half of December, the A - share market showed a slight upward trend, commodities rose, and long - term bond yields increased. The REITs market fell 1.8%, reaching a new low since the second half of 2025. Only IDC and public utilities showed slight increases, while transportation had the largest decline. The overall daily average turnover rate of REITs dropped to 0.35%, the lowest level of the year [4][16][21]. - **Dividend Yield and Valuation**: The dividend yields of equity - type and concession - type REITs were 4.48% and 8.86% respectively. The interest rate spread between equity - type REITs and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 2.64%, and the spread with CSI Dividend Index was - 0.65%. Most asset valuations remained high, with the P/NAV of equity - type REITs at 1.23X (69% quantile) and the P/FFO of concession - type REITs at 12.64X (41% quantile). The IRR generally increased [4][32][43]. 3.2 Zhonghe Clean Energy Inquiries Initiated, Anbo Logistics to Be Listed Soon - **Market Scale**: As of December 15, 2025, there were 77 listed REITs in Shanghai and Shenzhen, with a total market value of 216 billion yuan [57]. - **New REITs Progress**: Huaxia Zhonghe Clean Energy REIT will conduct offline inquiries on December 17th, with an issue size of 300 million shares and a price range of 3.356 - 5.033 yuan per share. Huaxia Anbo Warehouse Logistics REIT will be listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on December 19th, and the shares allocated to offline investors will be fully tradable on the listing day. The valuation difference of Anbo Warehouse Logistics REIT compared to comparable REITs has widened. The offline subscription return rate of 100 million yuan for REITs from January to December 2025 was 3.49% [59][70][71]. 3.3 Jingneng Photovoltaic Expansion Plan Approved, Three REITs to Be Lifted from Restricted - Sale Period in the Second Half of the Month - **Important Announcements**: In the first half of December, 10 REITs announced dividend plans. Huaxia Runhe Youchao REIT's expansion was allocated to original holders, and AVIC Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT's expansion plan was approved by the holders' meeting [84][86]. - **Restricted - Sale Period Lifting**: In the second half of December, Guangfa Chengdu Gaotou Industrial Park REIT, Hua'an Waigaoqiao REIT, and Huaxia Beijing Affordable Housing REIT will have part of their shares lifted from the restricted - sale period [86]. 3.4 One New Application, One New Acceptance, Jinjiang Group May Issue Hotel REITs - **Queue of Projects**: There are 12 initial public offering (IPO) projects and 3 expansion projects in the queue at the exchange. In the first half of December, the exchange accepted Ping An Xi'an Gaoke Industrial Park REIT, and Boshi Shandong Tietou Road and Bridge REIT submitted an application [91]. - **Tendering Information**: In the first half of December, the tendering information of 6 public REITs projects was updated. Jinjiang Group may issue hotel - related REITs, and Penghua Fund won the bid for Xuzhou Guotou Energy Group's infrastructure REITs project, while Jianxin Fund won the bid for Shuifa Group's water - related REITs project [94][97].

Group 1: Market Trends - The number of newly added private placement projects increased to 26 in the last two weeks, a 62.5% increase from the previous period[5] - The approval rate for projects remains at 100%, with 27 projects approved by the review committee, up 171.4% from the previous period[5] - There are currently 631 projects in the normal review stage, with 92 projects having received approval, an increase of 33.33%[5] Group 2: Fundraising Dynamics - Total fundraising amount in the last two weeks was 1.567 billion yuan, a decrease of 84.48% from the previous period[29] - The average benchmark discount rate for fundraising projects dropped to 9.81%, a decrease of 10.03%[29] - The average premium rate for bidding projects increased to 10.62%, up 8.77% from the previous period[39] Group 3: Project Analysis - Aopu Mai plans to acquire a preclinical CRO service company, with an estimated valuation of 1.452 billion yuan, reflecting a 56.62% increase in value[22] - Qide New Materials aims to raise up to 275 million yuan for expanding production capacity, with a PE ratio of 211.91X, placing it in the top 30% of industry valuations[23] - The average absolute return for newly unlocked bidding projects was 36.29%, a decrease of 41.07% from the previous period[29]