联系人 方思齐 A0230525090002 fangsq@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 15 日 TMT 板块涨幅领先，三只有色板块 ETF 申报 ——指数化投资周报 20251215 ⚫ 产品成立募集情况： 产品成立方面，最近一周，东财中证港股通科技 ETF、博时中证银行 ETF 等 4 只 ETF 产 品上市；宝盈中证 A500 指数增强 A、华夏国证港股通科技 ETF 联接 A、联博中证 500 指数增强 A 等 11 只产品成立。 申报方面，最近一周共计 34 只指数产品进行申报，伴随有色金属过去几个月的上涨行 情，有色方向的 ETF 产品关注度也有进一步提升，最近一周，鹏华、博时申报中证工业 有色金属主题 ETF，景顺长城申报中证有色金属矿业主题 ETF 。 相关研究 - 证券分析师 募集方面，未来一周 18 只指数产品结束募集，9 只指数产品将开始募集。结束募集的指 数产品包括长信上证科创板综合指数增强 A 和易方达中证港股通高股息投资 ETF 等 18 只产品，开始募集的指数产品包括广发国证工业软件主题 ETF、易方达中证港股通医疗主 题 ETF 等 9 只产品。 f ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [1]. Core Insights - Fixed asset investment growth in China has further declined, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2.6% for January to November 2025, a drop of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous period [2][3]. - Traditional infrastructure investment has seen an expanded decline, necessitating measures to stabilize investment. Infrastructure investment (including all categories) grew by only 0.1% year-on-year, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - Real estate investment remains low, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.9% for January to November 2025, indicating a weak recovery trajectory [11]. Summary by Sections Fixed Asset Investment - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate for fixed asset investment is -2.6%, with manufacturing investment showing a slight increase of 1.9% [2][3]. - The decline in traditional infrastructure investment has intensified, with significant drops in various sectors, including transportation and public facilities [4]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) has decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, with notable declines in transportation and environmental management sectors [4]. - Regional investment disparities are evident, with the eastern region experiencing a 6.6% decline year-on-year [4]. Real Estate Investment - Real estate investment has decreased by 15.9% year-on-year, with construction starts down by 20.5% and completions down by 18.0% [11]. - The report anticipates a slow recovery in real estate investment due to challenges in inventory replenishment and supply chain issues [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that in 2026, industry investment is expected to stabilize, with emerging sectors likely to benefit from national strategic initiatives [15]. - Specific companies are highlighted for potential investment, including Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Chemical, and others in the new infrastructure and overseas markets [15].

证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 王哲一 A0230525100003 wangzy@swsresearch.com 联系人 王哲一 A0230525100003 wangzy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 15 日 财政发力仍待观察，实体需求仍弱 ——11 月金融数据点评 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 债 券 策 相关研究 债 券 研 究 略 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 2025 年 11 月新增人民币贷款 0.39 万亿元（2024 年 11 月为 0.58 万亿元），新增社 融 2.49 万亿元（2024 年 11 月为 2.33 万亿元），社融同比增速为 8.5%（2025 年 10 月为 8.5%），M2 同比 8%（2025 年 10 月为 8.2%）。 ⚫ 第一，社融同比增速持平上 ...

2025 年 12 月 15 日 论债市定价权的转移 ——近期市场反馈及思考 8 投资者当下更为关心的是"谁在主导债市的定价权、2026 年是否存在预期差、以及什么策略可能 较为有效"。本文就以上话题汇总投资者最为关心的 10 个话题（涵盖利率、信用及转债等方面）。 ⚫ 谁主导了债市（特别是长债、超长债）的定价权？ ⚫ 2026 年 1 季度与 2025 年同期的债市环境有何不同？ 相关研究 《"资金分流+反内卷"下的债市 主导逻辑变迁——近期市场反馈及 思考 5》 2025/08/18 《债市"走楼梯"行情下的困境与 破局——近期市场反馈及思考 4》 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 张晋源 A02305250400 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the power and gas sectors, including China Power Investment Corporation, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and China Resources Power [48]. Core Insights - Yunnan Province has increased the coal power capacity price recovery of fixed costs to 100%, which is expected to stabilize revenue for coal power companies and enhance their role in supporting renewable energy integration [7][8]. - The report highlights a significant drop in natural gas prices, with Northeast Asia LNG prices reaching a 20-month low, driven by strong supply and mild weather conditions [12][26]. - The investment analysis suggests a diversified revenue model for coal power companies, transitioning from reliance on electricity sales to a combination of electricity revenue, capacity income, and ancillary service income [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Power: Yunnan Increases Coal Power Capacity Price - Yunnan has announced a new mechanism for coal power capacity pricing, allowing for full recovery of fixed costs starting in 2026, set at 330 RMB per kilowatt per year [7][8]. - The province's total installed power capacity exceeds 168 million kilowatts, with over 90% from green energy sources, necessitating coal power for peak load support [8]. 2. Gas: Global Gas Price Trends - As of December 12, the Henry Hub spot price in the U.S. was $4.07/mmBtu, down 21.56% week-on-week, while Northeast Asia LNG prices fell to $10/mmBtu, a decrease of 6.19% [12][13]. - The report notes that the overall supply of natural gas remains robust, contributing to lower prices in Northeast Asia [26][28]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The power and power equipment sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, while the public utility, gas, and environmental protection sectors lagged behind [36]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent government meetings and policy announcements emphasize the importance of a clean, low-carbon energy system and the development of a new energy system by 2030 [40][43]. - The report includes updates on major companies, such as China Resources Power and Longyuan Power, highlighting their financial activities and operational performance [44][46].

在线上的出 2025 年 12 月 15 日 ted by street the see the series of the see on the see on the series of the see of the see of the see the series of the seen the series of the sering the sering the sering 相关研究 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 猪价底部震荡亏损延续， 宠物食品线上销售情况 农林牧渔周观点（2025.12.8-2025.12.14） 本期投资提示: 7.00% 4.00% 1.00% -2.00% -5.00% 资料来源：iFinD，申万宏源研究 请务必仔细阅读 ...

行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 及 产 业 农林牧渔 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 15 日 猪价底部震荡亏损延续，关注11月 宠物食品线上销售情况 看好 —— 农林牧渔周观点（2025.12.8-2025.12.14） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 1．本周农业股市场表现 本周申万农林牧渔指数下跌 0.1%，沪深 300 下跌 0.1%。个股涨幅前五名：*ST 正邦 （19.4%）、生物股份（17.2%）、平潭发展（13.8%）、罗牛山（13.7%）、神农科技 （12.3%），跌幅前五名：西王食品（-15.4%）、海利生物（-13.0%）、华英农业（- 12.4%）、好当家（-11 ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 深 度 报告原因：首次覆盖 增持（首次评级） | 市场数据： 2025 年 12 月 12 日 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 5.87 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 7.21/3.71 | | 市净率 | 1.4 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 2.39 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 12,146 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,889.35/13,258.33 | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 4.15 | | 资产负债率% | 44.20 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 2,069/2,069 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -50% 0% 50% 100% 12-12 01-12 02-12 03-12 04-12 05-12 06-12 07-12 08-12 09-12 10-12 11-12 12-12 皖维高新 ...

Group 1: 恒隆地产 (Hang Lung Properties) - The company focuses on core business districts to create high-end commercial benchmarks, primarily engaged in property leasing, with property sales and hotels as supplementary businesses, operating in mainland China and Hong Kong [12][10] - Revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 11.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 9%, and a CAGR of 5% from 2011 to 2024 [12] - The company has a stable financial position with a dividend payout ratio of 80%, and aims to restore cash dividends in the future [12] Group 2: 特变电工 (TBEA) - TBEA is recognized as a leading integrated enterprise in power transmission and transformation equipment and the energy industry, benefiting from the shift of coal resource development to the western regions of China [11][2] - Revenue is expected to grow from CNY 102.1 billion in 2025 to CNY 128.5 billion in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.3%, 11.1%, and 13.3% respectively [11] - The company is positioned to benefit from the tightening of coal supply policies and the rebound in coal prices, with a focus on meeting local coal transformation and transportation needs [11][15] Group 3: 米诺地尔产品 (Minoxidil Products) - The company holds a leading market share in the Minoxidil segment, with a robust growth trajectory in revenue and profit, projecting a revenue increase from CNY 982 million in 2022 to approximately CNY 1.455 billion in 2024 [18][14] - The market for consumer healthcare is expanding, driven by increased health awareness and policy support, with the hair health management market expected to grow at a CAGR of 17.7% from 2018 to 2024 [18][14] - The company has maintained a dominant position in the Minoxidil market, with a market share of approximately 70.6% in 2024 [18][14]

Quantum Technology - The report highlights the release of the world's first 3D-extended architecture 10,000-qubit quantum processor VIO-40K by QuantWare, which aims to overcome the scaling bottleneck of quantum processors and is compatible with NVIDIA's NVQLink platform [3][7][8] - The 2025 Zhongguancun Quantum Conference announced 16 quantum technology achievements and a 500 million yuan investment fund to support quantum entrepreneurship, showcasing advancements in quantum computing and applications in energy [3][13][14] Biomanufacturing - Levinthal Biotech completed a multi-million Pre-A round financing to accelerate the development of its AI-driven full-atom model protein design platform Pallatom, which addresses the design challenges of cyclic peptides [3][15][16] - Aopu Mai's acquisition of 100% of Pengli Biotechnology was approved, enhancing its capabilities in cell culture media and CDMO services, thereby expanding its market position [3][20][21] - Baiaosaitu has established a dual-platform listing strategy with its recent listing on the STAR Market, focusing on innovative drug development driven by gene editing technology [3][23][24] Hydrogen Energy and Nuclear Fusion - The report notes the deepening international cooperation in nuclear fusion, with a Chinese expert set to chair the ITPA Coordination Committee from 2026 to 2028, and the signing of a contract for the mass production of the ITER first wall [3][28][29] - Snowman Group's metal plate fuel cell stack project has passed final acceptance, marking a significant step in the commercialization of hydrogen energy technology [3][30][31] Brain-Computer Interface - Neuralink has demonstrated a significant efficiency breakthrough with its new surgical robot, reducing the electrode implantation time from 17 seconds to 1.5 seconds, showcasing advancements in surgical precision and safety [3][34][46] - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape, with the U.S. leading in invasive technologies while China excels in non-invasive applications, highlighting the ongoing developments in both sectors [3][48][49] Embodied Intelligence - Beijing Humanoid Robotics has launched the first fully autonomous humanoid robot tour guide solution, integrating IoT capabilities for various applications in exhibition halls and shopping malls [3][50][51] - The Shanghai humanoid robot pilot alliance was established to enhance the supply chain for humanoid robots, indicating a collaborative effort to scale the industry [3][53][54] - Yushu Technology has introduced a humanoid robot App Store, allowing users to upload and share action models, further promoting the commercialization of humanoid robotics [3][55]