Investment Rating - The report recommends focusing on the vocational education company China Oriental Education (00667.HK) due to its strong growth prospects and operational adjustments [12]. Core Insights - The vocational training sector is experiencing an upward trend, driven by an increase in the number of high school graduates who are not entering university, leading to a growing demand for vocational skills training [2][7]. - China Oriental Education has forecasted a significant increase in adjusted net profit for 2025, with a growth rate between 46% and 51%, translating to a profit range of 767 million to 793 million RMB [6][12]. - The company is implementing refined management strategies to enhance operational efficiency, which is expected to result in a gross margin increase of 5.2 percentage points to 56.5% in 2025 [8]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The education index fell by 3.2% in the week of February 6-12, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 4.1 percentage points, but has shown a year-to-date increase of 12.86% [5]. Company Updates - China Oriental Education's new training participants are expected to grow by 6% in 2025, contributing to a revenue increase of 12% to 4.61 billion RMB [6][12]. - The company is targeting high school graduates who did not enter university, with a significant increase in the number of such graduates from 119,000 in 2021 to 386,000 in 2024 [7]. Operational Efficiency - The company is focusing on optimizing marketing expenditures and improving school capacity utilization, which is projected to lower the marketing expense ratio by 2.5 percentage points to 21.2% in 2025 [8]. - Management efficiency is also expected to improve, with a projected management expense ratio of 11.2%, down by 1.1 percentage points [8]. Capital Expenditure and Dividends - Capital expenditures are anticipated to decrease by 33.6% to approximately 660 million RMB in 2025, with a high dividend payout ratio expected to yield a dividend yield of 5.6% [9][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on vocational education companies, particularly China Oriental Education, due to its strong performance forecasts and strategic adjustments to meet the growing demand for vocational training [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on the overseas education sector, specifically highlighting China Oriental Education as a key investment target [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates a positive outlook for vocational education training, with operational efficiency continuously improving. China Oriental Education is expected to achieve a net profit growth of 46% to 51% in 2025, with adjusted net profit projected between 767 million to 793 million RMB [1][7]. - The vocational training market is anticipated to benefit from an increase in high school graduates who do not enter university, leading to a significant rise in demand for vocational skills training [2][8]. - The company is implementing refined management strategies to enhance operational efficiency, expecting a gross margin increase of 5.2 percentage points to 56.5% in 2025 [3][9]. - Capital expenditures are projected to decline, with a forecast of approximately 660 million RMB in 2025, a decrease of 33.6% year-on-year, while maintaining a high dividend payout ratio [4][10]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The education index fell by 3.2% in the week of February 6-12, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 4.1 percentage points. Year-to-date, the education index has risen by 12.86%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 9.93 percentage points [6]. Company Updates - China Oriental Education has released a positive profit forecast for 2025, with an expected net profit growth of 46% to 51%, translating to an adjusted net profit of 767 million to 793 million RMB. The company anticipates a 6% increase in new training participants, driving revenue growth to between 12% and 46.1 billion RMB [7][8]. Vocational Training Demand - The vocational training sector is set to experience growth due to a mismatch in university enrollment rates and an increase in high school graduates. The number of high school graduates has risen by 2.6 million from 2021 to 2024, while university enrollment has only increased by 320,000 during the same period [2][8]. Operational Efficiency - The company is expected to continue its lean management approach from 2024, coordinating recruitment across schools to improve capacity utilization. The marketing expense ratio is projected to decrease by 2.5 percentage points to 21.2% in 2025, contributing to a net profit margin increase of 4.4 percentage points to 17.2% [3][9]. Capital Expenditure and Dividends - The company has initiated a vocational education center construction plan, with five out of six centers expected to be completed between 2023 and 2025. The capital expenditure for 2025 is estimated at 660 million RMB, with a high dividend payout ratio suggesting a dividend yield of 5.6% [4][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on Hong Kong-listed vocational education companies, particularly China Oriental Education, due to its strong growth prospects and operational adjustments aimed at capturing the vocational training demand from high school graduates [13].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Wallrun Technology (壁仞科技) [2][7]. Core Insights - Wallrun Technology is a leading domestic AI chip company focusing on GPGPU architecture and intelligent computing solutions, with a strong emphasis on proprietary technology and a diverse team background [6][15]. - The company has achieved significant revenue growth projections, with expected revenues of RMB 9.5 billion, RMB 20.2 billion, and RMB 39.5 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [7]. - The report highlights the company's innovative product offerings, including the BR106 and BR166 chips, which are designed for large-scale AI training and inference applications [25][28]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Wallrun Technology are as follows: RMB 62 million in 2023, RMB 337 million in 2024, RMB 945 million in 2025, RMB 2,021 million in 2026, and RMB 3,951 million in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 12,330.86%, 442.97%, 180.61%, 113.83%, and 95.51% respectively [5]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts indicate losses of RMB 1,051 million in 2023, RMB 767 million in 2024, RMB 827 million in 2025, and a reduced loss of RMB 632 million in 2026, with a projected profit of RMB 74 million in 2027 [5][7]. - The company's gross margin is expected to fluctuate, with rates of 76.4% in 2023, 53.2% in 2024, and 31.9% in the first half of 2025, primarily due to changes in product sales mix [6][35]. Technology and Product Development - Wallrun Technology focuses on GPGPU architecture and has developed a comprehensive hardware and software ecosystem, including the BIRENSUPA software platform, which supports major AI frameworks [20][31]. - The company is pioneering advanced technologies such as Chiplet architecture and optical interconnects, enhancing the performance and scalability of its AI computing systems [50][53]. - The BR20X chip is expected to be commercialized in 2026, featuring improved performance and support for various data formats, further solidifying the company's market position [29][30]. Market Position and Ecosystem - Wallrun Technology has established strong partnerships with major telecommunications operators and is expanding its customer base, with a projected revenue contribution from its top five customers decreasing over time [6][38]. - The report emphasizes the growing domestic AI capital expenditure (Capex) market, which is expected to accommodate multiple AI chip companies, indicating a favorable environment for Wallrun Technology's growth [8][7]. - The company has successfully implemented a domestic supply chain strategy, ensuring production and research continuity despite external challenges [54].

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 计算机 2026 年 02 月 13 日 联想集团 (00992) ——业绩超预期，AI 服务器在手订单 155 亿美元 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | 市场数据： | 2026 年 02 月 12 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 9.00 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9175.18 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 13.60/6.57 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 1,116.42 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 12,404.66 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.8888 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -41% 9% 59% HSCEI 联想集团 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 买入（维持） 《联想集团（00992）点评：业绩超预期， AI 服务器维持高增》 2025/11/22 《联想集团（00992）点评：PC 复苏超预 期，AI 服务器高速增长》 2025/08/14 《联想集团（00992）深度：被低估的 ICT 全 栈 供 应 商 （ GenAI 系列之 59 ） 》 2025/0 ...

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 刘正 A0230518100001 liuzheng@swsresearch.com 刘嘉玲 A0230522120003 liujl@swsresearch.com 联系人 刘嘉玲 A0230522120003 liujl@swsresearch.com 家用电器 2026 年 02 月 13 日 25H2 厨电换新高基数压力渐显， 26 年补贴聚焦核心品类 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 评 - ⚫ 24 年以旧换新激活家电消费市场。2024 年"以旧换新"政策落地后，家电品类补贴范 围扩容，拉动需求成效显著：除了 09 年已经涉及的彩电、冰箱、洗衣机、空调、电脑 5 个补贴品类外，新增热水器、家用灶具、吸油烟机 3 个品类，共计补贴 8 大品类。根 据奥维云网推总数据，2024 年油烟机实现零售额 362 亿元，同比增长 14.9%，燃气灶 实现零售额 204 亿元，同比增长 15.7%，电热实现零售额 236 亿元，同比增长 1. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has issued a profit warning, expecting an adjusted net profit of 800-900 million yuan for 2025, which is below expectations and represents a year-on-year decline of 21-30% compared to 1.14 billion yuan in 2024 [7] - The decline in profit is primarily attributed to New Classics Media, which is expected to report a loss of 140 million yuan in 2025 due to goodwill impairment of approximately 1.8 billion yuan [7] - The online business and the company's proprietary copyright operations are expected to perform in line with expectations, with a good growth rate in copyright operations [7] - The company is transitioning from a "hit-driven" model to an "IP pool monetization" strategy, leveraging AI to reduce production costs and time for animated adaptations [7] - The company has launched a global toy co-creation plan to enhance its derivative product business, collaborating with top artists to incubate original IP [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 7.012 billion yuan - 2024: 8.121 billion yuan - 2025E: 7.265 billion yuan - 2026E: 8.002 billion yuan - 2027E: 8.661 billion yuan - Adjusted net profit forecasts are as follows: - 2023: 1.130 billion yuan - 2024: 1.142 billion yuan - 2025E: 843 million yuan - 2026E: 1.452 billion yuan - 2027E: 1.648 billion yuan [9][10] - The report anticipates a target price-to-earnings ratio of 30x for 2026, leading to a target market capitalization of 49 billion HKD, indicating a potential upside of 25% [7]

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 4134 | 0.05 | -0.75 | 1.43 | | 深证综指 | 2709 | 0.51 | -0.21 | 2.2 | 2026 年 02 月 13 日 映恩生物-B（9606.HK）深度：差异化 ADC 技术平台，2026 年催化剂丰富 ◼ 映恩生物是一家以差异化 ADC 技术平台为核心的创新生物药公司。依托自 主研发的四大领先 ADC 技术平台：DITAC、DIBAC、DIMAC 及 DUPAC， 公司已构建覆盖 HER2、HER3、TROP2、B7-H3 等靶点的多款核心 ADC 管线，同时布局双抗 ADC、全新机制载荷 ADC、自免 ADC 等下一代产品， 适应症涵盖乳腺癌、肺癌、前列腺癌等多个瘤种。 ◼ 多款创新管线达成全球授权合作，全面推进 ADC+IO 2.0 联合疗法。 ◼ DB-1311（B7-H3 ADC）适应症覆盖广泛，2026 年多项数据读出。 ◼ 构建创新 2.0 管线，聚焦下一代 ...

Overview - In January 2026, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000, exceeding market expectations of 65,000, indicating a strong employment report[1] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, down from 4.4% as anticipated, while the labor force participation rate rose to 62.5%[1][6] - The average hourly wage in the private sector increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%[1][10] Employment Data Adjustments - The annual benchmark revision revealed that the average monthly job growth for 2025 was adjusted down to only 15,000, with a significant downward revision of 898,000 jobs for March 2025[1][11] - The non-seasonally adjusted figures for 2025 were revised down by 862,000 jobs, indicating a weaker employment landscape than previously reported[1][11] Sector Performance - The education and health services sector contributed significantly to job growth, adding 137,000 jobs, while the construction sector added 33,000 jobs, driven by non-residential contractors[2][21] - Manufacturing saw a slight recovery with an addition of 5,000 jobs, breaking a streak of negative growth over the past 13 months[2][21] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar index, and stock markets all experienced upward movements, reflecting reduced concerns over layoffs[2][14] - The 10-year Treasury yield briefly surpassed 4.2%, indicating market optimism regarding economic stability[2][14] Future Outlook - Despite the strong January employment figures, analysts caution that the data may contain "water," suggesting underlying weaknesses in the labor market[4] - The potential for a "low growth balance" in the U.S. job market is anticipated for 2026, with risks from tariffs and immigration policies posing challenges[4]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company, "Ming Ming Hen Mang," is a leading player in the casual food and beverage retail sector, focusing on a dual-brand strategy with "Zero Food Busy" and "Zhao Yi Ming Snacks" [6][17]. - The casual food and beverage retail market is expected to grow from RMB 2.9 trillion in 2019 to RMB 3.7 trillion by 2024, with a CAGR of 5.5% [6][41]. - The company has a strong market presence with 19,517 stores across 28 provinces, 59% of which are located in county and town markets, covering 1,341 counties [6][17]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of RMB 10,295 million in 2023, RMB 39,344 million in 2024, and reaching RMB 63,164 million by 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 140.22% in 2023 and 282.15% in 2024 [5][7]. - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is expected to rise from RMB 217 million in 2023 to RMB 834 million in 2024, and RMB 2,292 million in 2025, with growth rates of 203.45% and 283.44% respectively [5][7]. - The company’s PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 33X, 24X, and 20X respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [7]. Market Dynamics - The casual food and beverage retail market is characterized by a high degree of fragmentation, with the top five chain retailers holding only 6% market share in 2024 [6][55]. - The down-market segment is becoming a key growth driver, with GMV expected to reach RMB 2.3 trillion by 2024, growing at a CAGR of 6.5%, significantly outpacing high-tier markets [6][45]. Competitive Advantages - The company employs a dual strategy of expanding high-tier stores while penetrating lower-tier markets, enhancing its store network through a franchise model [6][9]. - The supply chain and logistics capabilities are robust, with partnerships established with over 2,500 suppliers, allowing for efficient procurement and cost management [6][20]. - The company is transitioning to a full-category "discount supermarket" model, optimizing store formats and expanding product offerings to enhance revenue potential [6][19]. Fundraising and Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to utilize raised funds to enhance supply chain capabilities, upgrade store networks, and strengthen brand promotion efforts [6][24]. - Future growth is anticipated through strategic investments and acquisitions, further solidifying the company's market position [6][24]. Valuation and Growth Potential - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 631.64 billion, RMB 798.83 billion, and RMB 924.82 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of RMB 22.92 billion, RMB 30.89 billion, and RMB 37.43 billion [7][8]. - The current market valuation suggests a potential upside of approximately 10% based on the average PEG ratio of comparable companies [7].

Group 1: Production Trends - In January, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[3] - The average PMI over the past two months shows a recovery trend, rising 0.5 percentage points to 49.7% compared to November 2025[14] - The operating rate of blast furnaces in the metallurgical chain increased by 2.2 percentage points year-on-year to 1%[21] Group 2: Demand Insights - Export activity is expected to remain strong due to a delayed Spring Festival, with foreign trade cargo volume increasing by 13.9% year-on-year in the weeks leading up to the festival[5] - Retail sales are projected to see a slight rebound of approximately 1.9% in January-February 2026, supported by extended holiday periods and local consumption stimulus policies[39] - The government has introduced significant consumption vouchers in various regions, with Henan and Hubei issuing a total of 2 billion yuan in vouchers to stimulate spending[42] Group 3: Price Dynamics - The PPI is expected to show weak recovery, with January PPI at -1.4% year-on-year, reflecting limited transmission of upstream price increases to downstream sectors[59] - CPI is anticipated to exhibit a "V-shaped" trend, with January CPI declining to 0.2% year-on-year, but expected to rebound significantly in February due to seasonal factors[64] - Core CPI, excluding gold and silver, is likely to remain low due to weak demand and reduced government subsidies[64]