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中欧基金邓欣雨:借助基本面量化打造景气成长风格固收+产品:基金经理研究系列报告之八十五
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-29 12:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Dun Xinyu, a fund manager at China - Europe Fund, uses fundamental quantitative methods for the "plus" part of the "fixed - income +" investment framework, with strategies such as dividend, value, quality, growth, and micro - cap, and has a macro - based asset allocation framework [6][7] - China - Europe Dingli is a medium - to - high - volatility secondary bond fund with a quantitative boom - growth strategy, showing high - return and high - risk characteristics, and investors' profit - making effect increases with the holding time [8][26] - China - Europe Enhanced Return is a low - volatility absolute - return product, emphasizing safety margins in equity assets, and also showing that investors' profit - making effect increases with the holding time [38][41] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. China - Europe Fund Dun Xinyu: A Practitioner of Fundamental Quantitative Fixed - Income + - Dun Xinyu has rich experience in the fund industry and currently manages 8768 million yuan in assets at China - Europe Fund, covering first - tier bond funds, second - tier bond funds, and flexible allocation funds [4][5] - His investment framework for the "plus" part of "fixed - income +" uses fundamental quantitative methods, and there is also a macro - based asset allocation framework [6][7] 3.2. China - Europe Dingli: A Medium - to - High - Volatility Secondary Bond Fund with a Boom - Growth Strategy - It is positioned as a medium - to - high - volatility secondary bond fund, using a quantitative boom - growth strategy with three nested layers, aiming to earn returns from the boom [8] - The judgment of a company's boom is based on three dimensions of financial statements: financial health, profit sustainability, and growth momentum [10] - Compared with other quantitative styles, the growth style has higher volatility but also higher long - term returns, and in 2025, it has significantly outperformed other style factors [24] - In 2025, it has achieved a high return of 11.41% and an annualized volatility of 8.44%, with a superior Sharpe ratio. The profit - making effect for investors increases with the holding time [26][27] - Its stock position is 16.29% and convertible bond position is 13.14%, with an industry allocation inclined to growth sectors such as electronics, machinery, and power equipment [31] 3.3. China - Europe Enhanced Return: A Low - Volatility Absolute - Return Product - It is positioned as a low - volatility absolute - return product, aiming to create absolute returns with a 2% drawdown target [38] - It emphasizes safety margins in equity assets, using valuation as a means to measure safety margins [39] - In 2025, it has achieved a cumulative return of 3.53% with an annualized volatility of 2.26%, and multiple core indicators rank among the top in the industry [39][40] - The profit - making effect for investors also increases with the holding time [41]
三元股份(600429):25Q3点评:收入环比改善,主业盈利能力提升
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-29 12:14
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 4.87 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10%, but achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 236 million yuan, a significant increase of 124.8% year-on-year [7] - The revenue for Q3 2025 was 1.54 billion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.82% year-on-year, but the net profit for the same quarter was 53.14 million yuan, compared to a loss of 22.63 million yuan in the previous year [7] - The company is shifting its strategy from revenue-driven to profit-driven, focusing on internal reforms and efficiency improvements [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 7.127 billion yuan, with a projected year-on-year growth of 1.6% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 89 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 63.1% [6] - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve to 23.7% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 1.8% [6] Revenue and Profitability Trends - The company’s revenue decline has narrowed in Q3 2025, with a focus on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and fresh milk products [7] - The number of distributors has decreased by 1,640, indicating a strategic focus on key areas and product categories [7] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 18.7%, with a decrease of 2 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to cost pressures and product mix adjustments [7]
云从科技(688327):收入超预期、净利润减亏,算力建设业务放量
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-29 12:13
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 190 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.68%, exceeding market expectations of around 30%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -80 million yuan, compared to -150 million yuan in the same period last year [6] - The revenue growth was primarily driven by the rapid expansion of computing power construction business, with accelerated project delivery contributing significantly to revenue [6] - The reduction in net loss is attributed to improved cash flow and effective cost control, with Q3 operating cash flow turning positive at 60 million yuan [6] - The gross margin is expected to be impacted by the increasing proportion of lower-margin AI-related business [6] - The company is focusing on large model projects across various industries, including collaborations with Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Huawei [6] - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 5.44 billion, 7.42 billion, and 11.0 billion yuan, with net profits projected at -455 million, -360 million, and -217 million yuan respectively [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 544 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 36.8% [5] - The gross margin for 2025 is projected to be 42.7%, with a significant increase expected in subsequent years [5] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve from -35.1% in 2025 to -16.0% in 2027 [5]
固收+规模新增超5千亿,高弹性二级债基备受关注:——25Q3固收+基金季报分析
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-29 11:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3 2025, the scale of fixed - income plus funds continued to rise, with a total of 1419 funds and a scale of 1.93 trillion yuan. The issuance of such funds warmed up, especially from August to September. [8][16] - Influenced by the high - level correction in the convertible bond market, fixed - income plus products generally reduced their convertible bond positions and increased their stock positions, and most products increased their allocation to the TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors. [28][30] - In Q3 2025, the median return and maximum drawdown of fixed - income plus funds were 2.84% and - 0.85% respectively. Products with higher stock positions performed better. [36] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Scale Changes: Rapid Growth to Exceed 1.9 Trillion, High - Elasticity Secondary Bond Funds Attract Attention - **Overall Scale Trend**: The scale of fixed - income plus funds increased again in Q3 2025, showing an upward trend for four consecutive quarters. The total scale reached 1.93 trillion yuan, with an increase of 559.428 billion yuan this quarter. [8][10] - **Scale Changes by Product Type**: Except for the decline in the scale of new - share subscription funds, the scale of other products increased. Among them, the scale of low - and medium - position fixed - income plus funds increased significantly, and the scale of hybrid bond - type secondary funds rose rapidly. [10][13] - **Top - Rising Products**: The product with the largest scale increase was Yongying Steady Enhancement, with a scale increase of 27.331 billion yuan this quarter. It is a medium - volatility secondary bond fund with outstanding performance this quarter. [14] - **New Product Issuance**: In Q3 2025, fund companies issued 33 fixed - income plus funds, with a total initial issuance scale of 26.8 billion yuan. The issuance warmed up significantly from August to September. [16] - **Fund Company Perspective**: The management scales of the top 20 fund companies in terms of management scale all increased. The company with the largest scale increase was Invesco Great Wall Fund, with an increase of 78.199 billion yuan this quarter. [18] 3.2 Investment Characteristics: Lower Convertible Bond Positions, Raise Stock Positions - **Asset Allocation Characteristics**: Affected by the high - level correction in the convertible bond market, fixed - income plus products generally reduced their convertible bond positions and increased their stock positions, especially low - position fixed - income plus funds. [28] - **Industry Allocation Characteristics**: All types of fixed - income plus funds uniformly reduced their allocation to the financial real estate, consumption, medicine, and cycle sectors and increased their allocation to the science and technology innovation and advanced manufacturing sectors. [30] - **Fund Company - Level Industry Allocation Characteristics**: Among the top 10 fund companies in terms of fixed - income plus fund scale, there were significant differences in industry allocation views. For example, Invesco Great Wall Fund and Huaxia Fund over - allocated to the cycle sector, while Southern Fund and Invesco Great Wall Fund under - allocated to it. [32] - **Industry Allocation Characteristics of High - Performing Funds**: High - performing fixed - income plus funds in Q3 2025 generally had high convertible bond positions and mainly invested in the TMT, advanced manufacturing, and non - ferrous sectors. [34] 3.3 Performance Review: Huashang Fund Leads - **Overall Performance of Fixed - Income Plus Funds**: In Q3 2025, the median return and maximum drawdown of fixed - income plus funds were 2.84% and - 0.85% respectively. Products with higher stock positions performed better. [36] - **Fund Company - Level Performance**: Among the top fund companies in terms of fixed - income plus fund scale, Huashang Fund and Boshi Fund had the highest average returns. Tianhong Fund and BOC Fund had relatively similar product performance, while Huaxia Fund and Invesco Great Wall Fund had higher performance differentiation. [38] - **Performance of Large - Scale Funds**: In Q3 2025, the performance of large - scale fixed - income plus funds varied. Products with top performance in the same strategy included Invesco Great Wall Jingyi Fengli and Yongying Steady Enhancement. [39] - **High - Performing Products of Different Types of Fixed - Income Plus Funds**: The products with top returns included Hongta Hongtu Shengshang One - Year, Huatai - PineBridge Yurun, Rongtong Stable Credit Gain 6 - Month Holding, and Caitong Asset Management Xinyi. [41]
主动权益基金规模再次突破四万亿,科技板块成为重点聚焦赛道:——25Q3主动权益基金季报分析
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-29 11:07
Group 1: Investment Outlook Keywords in Q3 Fund Reports - Technology and consumption are the key sectors, with high attention on growth and innovation [5] Group 2: Performance and Scale Dimensions - In Q3 2025, the scale of active equity funds increased significantly from about 3.35 trillion yuan in Q2 to over 4 trillion yuan, a rise of 19.75%. Index funds also saw a significant increase from 3.50 billion yuan to 4.44 billion yuan (+26.70%) [8] - As of Q3 2025, E Fund, China - Europe Fund, and Fullgoal Fund have the largest active equity management scales, all exceeding 20 billion yuan. China - Europe, Yongying, and E Fund had obvious growth in active equity management scale, all exceeding 5 billion yuan [11] - The performance of active equity funds in Q3 improved significantly compared to the previous quarter, with about 98% achieving positive returns and a median return of 23.00%. 361 funds achieved over 50% returns [13] - The top 20 active equity funds in Q3 performance mostly focused on communication, electronics, and power equipment, and most had low allocations in Hong Kong stocks [16] - The overall position of active equity funds rose in Q3, with the average stock position increasing to 88.72% (+1.34%) and the Hong Kong stock position slightly decreasing (-0.09%). The Hong Kong stock position of Hong Kong stock funds increased to 92.27% (+0.88%) [18] - Active equity funds reduced their positions in consumer and financial real - estate stocks and increased their positions in the technology sector in Q3. Electronics had the highest allocation ratio and the largest increase, rising from 17.90% in Q2 to 23.44%, followed by communication with a 2.81% increase. Banks had the most significant reduction, with a 2.61% decrease [20] - Among the 20 largest - scale funds, E Fund Blue Chip Select remains the largest. Some large - scale products saw performance recovery but a decline in shares, while several products reached over 10 billion yuan in scale in Q3 [23] - In Q3, the net subscription amount of some funds was high, such as AVIC Opportunity Pilot and China - Europe Digital Economy, both exceeding 8 billion yuan. The new - issue scale of active equity funds recovered significantly, with 6 funds exceeding 2 billion yuan. China Merchants Fund had the largest new - issue scale this quarter, and China Merchants Bank had the largest new - issue scale as a custodian bank [24] - The share change of active equity funds in Q3 was weakly correlated with performance, and the phenomenon of chasing rising and selling falling was not obvious [26] Group 3: Fund Company Dimensions - Dongwu Fund had the best average performance of active equity funds in Q3 2025, with an average return of 40.58%. Funds with good performance also include Caitong Fund, E Fund, and Morgan Fund. The performance differentiation of Caitong Fund and Dongwu Fund is relatively high [31] - E Fund remains the largest active equity management company, with a scale of 271.5 billion yuan in Q3. China - Europe and Yongying Funds had obvious growth in active equity scale in Q3 [33] - Leading fund companies in Q3 performance over - allocated industries such as power equipment and communication and under - allocated industries such as pharmaceutical biology and food and beverage. Some companies also had significant over - or under - allocation in specific industries [35] - The over - and under - allocation of heavy - position stocks in leading active equity fund management companies mainly concentrated in several popular industries. For example, E Fund significantly over - allocated communication and media and under - allocated medicine and automobiles [37] - Companies with relatively large - market - value positions include Ruiyuan, Morgan, and Huatai - PineBridge; those with relatively small - market - value positions include Yongying, Dacheng, and Wanjia; those with relatively high PE positions include Wanjia, Yongying, and Huashang; those with relatively low PE positions include Ruiyuan, Dacheng, and Hongde [39] Group 4: Investment Strategy Comparison - Technology and new - energy funds outperformed in Q3, while consumer and financial real - estate funds performed weakly. The large - cap growth style dominated in Q3, with the median return of large - cap growth products leading among various products, reaching 43.73%, while small - cap growth products generally performed slightly weaker [1]
海兴电力(603556):业绩回暖第二增长曲线步入正轨
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-29 10:54
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.369 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.19%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 732 million yuan, down 7.48%. However, in Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.445 billion yuan and a net profit of 336 million yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 25.12% and 30.21% respectively. This performance exceeded expectations, primarily due to the revenue growth from smart water meters, new energy business, and distribution business, indicating the second growth curve is on the rise [1][10]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 5.021 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.4%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 870 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 13.1% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.79 yuan [3][11]. - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize at 43.9% from 2025 to 2027, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 10.9% in 2025 to 12.1% in 2027 [3][11]. Business Expansion and Strategic Developments - The company is actively expanding its smart power distribution business both domestically and internationally. The South African smart ultrasonic water meter factory has commenced operations, marking a significant step in localizing its smart water business in Africa. Additionally, the company has secured large-scale bids for its self-owned distribution network products in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, and has successfully won transformer orders in Central Asia and Africa [10]. - The launch of the "Orca" platform 10.0 version, which integrates edge computing, artificial intelligence, and digital technology, has significantly enhanced system performance and competitiveness in overseas solutions, showcasing the company's technological leadership in the smart grid sector [10]. Shareholder Returns - The company has maintained a consistent dividend policy, with a total cash dividend of 338 million yuan for the 2024 annual profit distribution, continuing a nine-year streak of cash dividends since 2016, totaling approximately 2.306 billion yuan. Furthermore, a share repurchase plan has been initiated, with a planned repurchase amount of 100 to 200 million yuan, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder value and prudent capital management [10].
华电国际(600027):Q3发电边际改善容量电价提升在即
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-29 10:29
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huadian International [2][7]. Core Views - The company reported a slight improvement in power generation margins and is expected to benefit from an upcoming increase in capacity pricing [7]. - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 95.872 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 9.72%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 15.87% to 6.437 billion yuan [7]. - The average on-grid electricity price for the first nine months was 0.50955 yuan per kilowatt-hour, down 2.76% year-on-year, but the company is expected to see improved profitability due to a larger decline in costs compared to electricity prices [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to increase from 112.994 billion yuan in 2024 to 130.669 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.3% [6][9]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 6.895 billion yuan in 2025 to 8.044 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 20.9% in 2025 [6][9]. - The company's financial costs have decreased significantly, with financial expenses for the first nine months of 2025 at 2.414 billion yuan, down 4.47 billion yuan year-on-year [7]. Capacity Pricing and Regulatory Changes - The upcoming increase in capacity pricing is expected to add approximately 3.536 billion yuan to the company's revenue starting in 2026, as the fixed cost recovery ratio for coal-fired power plants is set to rise [7]. - The company holds a substantial coal-fired power generation capacity of 54.4 million kilowatts, positioning it to benefit significantly from the regulatory changes [7].
安踏体育(02020):两大主力品牌表现稳健,新品牌延续高增势头
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-29 09:44
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [5] Core Insights - Anta Sports' two main brands are performing steadily, while new brands continue to show high growth momentum [10] - The company has adjusted its revenue guidance for the Anta brand down to low single-digit growth due to a weak retail environment [10] - The multi-brand matrix of the company is seen as a rare resource with significant growth potential in the long term [10] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2023 to FY2027 are as follows: - FY2023: 623.6 billion RMB - FY2024: 708.3 billion RMB - FY2025E: 789.1 billion RMB - FY2026E: 858.1 billion RMB - FY2027E: 923.0 billion RMB - Net profit forecasts show a significant increase in FY2023 with 102.4 billion RMB, peaking at 159.2 billion RMB in FY2027 [9][20] - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 62.6% in FY2023 to 63.9% in FY2027 [9] Brand Performance - Anta and FILA brands showed low single-digit growth in Q3 2025, while other brands experienced a growth rate of 45-50% [10] - FILA's growth was impacted by delayed sales of autumn and winter products, but it is expected to maintain mid-single-digit growth for the year [10] - Other brands like Descente and Maia Active are showing strong growth, with Descente growing approximately 30% and Maia Active around 45% [10] Market Expansion - Anta Sports is expanding its overseas market with a target of reaching 1,000 stores in Southeast Asia within three years [10] - The company is focusing on brand building and market cultivation in strategic markets like Europe and the US [10] Profitability and Cost Management - The company emphasizes quality over quantity in its operations, maintaining a profit margin target of 20-25% for the Anta brand and around 25% for FILA [10] - The report indicates a slight decrease in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 due to the current weak retail environment [10]
基金经理研究系列报告之八十五:中欧基金邓欣雨:借助基本面量化打造景气成长风格固收+产品
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-29 09:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Deng Xinyu, a fund manager at China - Europe Fund, uses fundamental quantitative methods for the "plus" part of the "fixed - income +" investment framework, with multiple strategies such as dividend, value, quality, growth, and micro - cap strategies, and a macro - based asset allocation framework [3][9]. - China - Europe Dingli is a medium - to - high - volatility secondary bond fund with a quantitative boom - growth strategy. It emphasizes the company's financial health, profit sustainability, and growth momentum, and shows high return - risk performance and increasing investor profitability over time [12][14][32]. - China - Europe Enhanced Return is a low - volatility absolute - return product aiming for an absolute return within a 2% drawdown target. It emphasizes the safety margin of equity assets through valuation and has excellent performance in multiple core indicators [44][45][46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. China - Europe Fund Deng Xinyu: A Practitioner of Fundamental Quantitative Fixed - Income + - Personal resume: Deng Xinyu joined China - Europe Fund in October 2023. He currently serves as a member of the fixed - income investment decision - making committee, the head of the hybrid asset group, and a fund manager. He manages multiple funds including China - Europe Dingli and China - Europe Enhanced Return [7]. - Investment framework: The "plus" part of the "fixed - income +" uses fundamental quantitative methods, with multiple strategies based on fundamental analysis and a macro - based asset allocation framework [9][11]. - Managed products: He manages products worth 8.768 billion yuan, covering first - tier and second - tier bond funds and flexible - allocation funds, achieving over 7% and 2% returns for China - Europe Dingli and China - Europe Enhanced Return respectively [8]. 3.2. China - Europe Dingli: A Medium - to - High - Volatility Secondary Bond Fund with a Boom - Growth Strategy - Product positioning: It is a medium - to - high - volatility secondary bond fund using a quantitative boom - growth strategy with three nested layers [12]. - Boom judgment: It uses financial statements to assess a company's financial health, profit sustainability, and growth momentum [14]. - Comparison with other products: It is comparable to Smart Beta products. Growth - style products have high volatility and high long - term returns, and China - Europe Dingli's equity return in 2025 has exceeded the growth index [19][30]. - Product characteristics: It has high return - risk performance, with a 2025 - to - date return of 11.41% (in the 10.16% percentile) and an annualized volatility of 8.44% (in the 8.59% percentile). Investor profitability increases with holding time [32][33]. - Portfolio: It has a stock position of 16.29% and a convertible bond position of 13.14%, with a focus on growth - oriented industries such as electronics, machinery, and power equipment [37]. 3.3. China - Europe Enhanced Return: A Low - Volatility Absolute - Return Product - Product positioning: It aims to create an absolute return within a 2% drawdown target, emphasizing the safety margin of equity assets through valuation [44][45]. - Performance: In 2025, it achieved a cumulative return of 3.53% with an annualized volatility of 2.26%, ranking in the 14.21% and 16.50% percentiles among first - tier bond funds with equity. Multiple core indicators rank high in the industry [45][46]. - Investor profitability: Investor profitability increases with holding time, with average returns of 0.49%, 1.08%, and 1.54% for 1 - month, 2 - month, and 3 - month holding periods respectively, and a 100% winning rate for 2 - and 3 - month holding periods [47].
海容冷链(603187):Q3收入超预期,盈利水平稳健
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-29 09:43
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's Q3 revenue performance exceeded expectations, with a total revenue of 2.43 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 301 million yuan, up 10.5% year-on-year [7] - The cold storage cabinet business is experiencing rapid growth, while the frozen sector maintains its competitive advantage. The company has managed to maintain a stable market share despite a decline in product sales in the commercial frozen display cabinet segment due to overall weak downstream demand [7] - The company's profitability remains robust, with a gross margin of 27.34% for the first three quarters of 2025, a slight decrease of 0.70 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin for the same period was 12.27%, down 0.71 percentage points year-on-year [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 3.25 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 398 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.5% [5] - The company expects to achieve net profits of 398 million yuan, 458 million yuan, and 522 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 12.5%, 15.2%, and 14.0% [7]