证 券 研 究 报 告 美联储降息落地，权益与商品分化涨跌互现 全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20251205-20251212) 证券分析师：金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 涂锦文 A0230525070006 王胜 A0230511060001 2025.12.14 报告摘要 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 全球资本市场回顾：本周 (20251205-20251212) 美国市场核心矛盾聚焦美联储货币政策动向，美联储如期宣布年内第三次降息 25 个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 3.50%-3.75%。此次 "鹰派降息" 与鲍威尔的平衡表态叠加流动性宽松操作，传递出复杂的政策信号，全球权益与商品有涨有跌。1）固收方面，10Y美债收益率录得4.19%，本 周上升5BPs，美元指数下行0.59%，当前点位为98.4；2）权益方面，本周创业板、德国、韩国股市上涨较多，而纳斯达克、恒生科技则出现下跌，越南股市跌幅较大；3）商品方 面，本周黄金大幅上涨2.13%，而原油因为伊拉克关键油田的复产，本周大幅下跌 ...

Group 1 - Market sentiment score continued to decline, reaching 1.35 as of December 12, down from 2.4 the previous week, indicating a bearish outlook from a sentiment perspective [2][8] - The overall trading volume in the market increased significantly, with total trading volume for the week rising by 15.14% compared to the previous week, averaging 19,530.44 billion yuan per day, with a peak of 21,190.10 billion yuan on December 12 [14][16] - The industry score model indicates that sectors such as non-bank financials, communication, defense, and automotive are showing upward trends in short-term scores, with communication having the highest short-term score of 77.97 [40][41] Group 2 - The correlation between industry congestion and weekly price changes is strong, with a coefficient of 0.33, indicating that sectors with high congestion like communication and defense are leading in gains, while sectors with low congestion like steel and environmental protection are lagging [45][46] - The current model suggests a preference for large-cap and growth styles, with signals indicating that growth style may strengthen further in the future [40][51] - The financing balance ratio continues to rise, reaching a new high for the phase, indicating an increase in leveraged funds and a structural recovery in risk appetite [26][28]

纺织服饰 行 业 研 究 2025 年 12 月 14 日 朱本伦 A0230125090001 zhubl@swsresearch.com 寒潮催化下看好波司登，Nike 修复看好运动制造 中性 ——纺织服装行业周报 20251214 相关研究 《Nike 调整架构以贴近市场，看好运动产 业链机会——纺织服装行业周报 20251207》 2025/12/07 《 本周重磅发布策略报告，挖掘新消费、 看好全球制造——纺织服装行业周报 20251123》 2025/11/23 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 求佳峰 A0230523060001 qiujf@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱本伦 A0230125090001 zhubl@swsresearch.com 联系人 本期投资提示： 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 / 行 业 ⚫ 本周纺织 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, particularly on the mid-to-high-end market and the used car market, indicating a favorable investment environment [2]. Core Views - The industry is experiencing substantial progress in countering "involution," with the State Administration for Market Regulation's pricing management measures reflecting a strong commitment to control [2]. - A three-year price increase cycle is anticipated, with effective demand release in the mid-to-high-end market and companies with overseas expansion strategies mitigating domestic pressures [2]. - The report recommends focusing on companies such as BAIC, JAC, Xiaopeng, and NIO, as well as used car enterprises like Uxin, which are expected to benefit from the price increase cycle [2]. Industry Situation Update - According to the China Passenger Car Association, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars in the first week of December were 42,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 32% and a month-on-month decrease of 8% [2]. - Recent weeks have seen a decline in traditional and new energy raw material price indices, with traditional car raw material prices down by 1.8% week-on-week and 0.6% month-on-month, while new energy raw material prices decreased by 1.2% week-on-week but increased by 0.9% month-on-month [2]. - The total transaction value in the automotive industry for the week was 469.021 billion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 11.32% [2]. Market Situation Update - The automotive industry index closed at 7662.00 points, with a weekly increase of 0.16%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 0.08% [2]. - A total of 90 stocks in the industry rose, while 180 fell, with the largest gainers being Chaojie Co., Huamao Technology, and Yueling Co., which increased by 39.0%, 28.5%, and 21.9% respectively [2]. Important Events - The continuation of national subsidy policies is expected to provide stable support for consumption and industrial upgrades [3]. - The focus on countering "involution" has been elevated to a key reform task, indicating a shift towards regulating market competition and improving profitability structures [5]. - The smart driving sector is transitioning into a phase of large-scale commercialization, with ecosystem collaboration becoming crucial for development [14]. Investment Analysis Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic leading manufacturers such as NIO, Xiaomi, Xiaopeng, and Li Auto, as well as companies involved in smart technology like Jianghuai Automobile and Seres [2]. - It highlights the importance of state-owned enterprise reforms and recommends attention to SAIC Motor and Dongfeng Motor [2]. - Companies with strong performance growth and overseas expansion capabilities in the parts sector, such as Xingyu, Fuyao Glass, and Newquay, are also recommended [2].

两个美国:"K 型经济"的成因与出路 海外经济研究 2025 年 12 月 14 日 2025 年中以来，美国再现"无就业增长"与"K 型复苏"特征。2026 年，美国经济能否走出 "K 型"特征,路径是"无就业"拖累增长,还是高增长带动充分就业? 一、热点思考:两个美国:"K型经济"的成因与出路 (一) 美国经济的两个结构性失衡:"无就业增长"与"K 型经济" 2025 年初以来，美国经济表现为"无就业增长"（jobless growth）。2025 年初特朗普开始 执政以来，美国新增非农就业人数开始下滑，2025年6-8 月月均下降至 1.8 万人低点，远低于 历史非衰退区间的平均水平。 但在 AI 资本开支的支撑下，美国 GDP 增速仍保持较高水平。 2025 年中以来，美国经济再现"K 型经济"（K-shaped economy）特征。它具体表现为消 费、就业、工资和财富的"K 型"分化,如：高收入人群的消费增速显著高于低收入人群;高 端消费好于大众消费；高收入和低收入人群的工资和财富的"剪刀差"不断扩大等。 (二)"K 型经济"的成因：经济放缓、货币宽松、特朗普冲击与美股结构性牛市 美国的"K 型经 ...

证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 袁伟嘉 A0230519080013 yuanwj@swsresearch.com 任梦妮 A0230521100005 renmn@swsresearch.com 夏嘉励 A0230522090001 xiajl@swsresearch.com 赵航 A0230522100002 zhaohang@swsresearch.com 黄俊儒 A0230525070008 huangjr@swsresearch.com 研究支持 张淇元 A0230124080001 zhangqy@swsresearch.com 联系人 林起贤 A0230519060002 ted by street the start of the seen the seen the seen the seen the seen the seen the seen the seen the seen the seen the 相关研究 linqx@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 14 日 互联网争夺 C 端 Al 入口: 字节 ...

蓝灰坑 2025 年 12 月 14 日 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 王盼 A0230523120001 wangpan@swsresearch.com 聂霜 A0230524120002 nieshuang@swsresearch.com 联系人 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 11 月化妆品淘系略承压，胶原医美赛道再添两员 -化妆品医美行业周报 20251214 本期投资提示: 破壞 行业 相关研究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本周化妆品医美板块表现弱于市场。2025 年 12 月 5 日至 2025 年 12 月 12 日期间, ● 申万美容护理指数下滑 1.6%，表现弱于市场。其中，申万化妆品指数下滑 1.2%，弱于 申万 A 指 1.4pct; 申万个护用品指数下滑 1.7%, 弱于申万 A 指数 1.9pct。 周观点：11 月化妆品淘系略承压,胶原医美赛道再添两员。据魔镜数据,11 月化妆品 ○ 淘系 GMV 整体偏弱，一方面受双 11 ...

2025 年 12 月 14 日 市值配售改革受关注 三新股过会 -北交所策略周报（20251208-20251214） 本周策略观点: 本周市场行情: 北交所新股： 新三板可除 相关研究 刘靖 A0230512070005 liujing@swsresearch.com 王雨晴 A0230522010003 wangyq@swsresearch.com 郑菁华 A0230525060001 zhengjh@swsresearch.com 汪秉涵 A0230525090003 wangbh@swsresearch.com 研究支持 目靖华 A0230124070002 lvjh@swsresearch.com 联系人 汪秉涵 A0230525090003 wangbh@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证券分析师 本周北证 50 上涨 2.79%,成交额环比上升 40.57%。1) 本周北交所情绪明显回暖,天 力复合连续两天涨停，北证市场成交量放大，强势股占比指标由 10%以下回升至 15.1%； 2）从主题热点来看，商业航天/卫星互联网（天力复合、富士达、星图测控等 ...

FFFF 2025 年 12 月 14 日 本期投资提示: 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1) 上证指数下跌 0.34%，深证成指上涨 0.84%，沪深 300 下跌 ● 0.08%，有色金属（申万）指数下跌 0.47%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.39 个百分点。2) 分子板块看，环比 上周，贵金属上涨 1.50%，铝下跌 4.72%，能源金属上涨 0.48%，小金属上涨 1.76%，铜下跌 0.83%, 铅锌下跌 1.45%，金属新材料上涨 2.71%。 相关研究 若研究院 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 quozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 quozy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 降息如期落地,金属价格强势 波段人 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is to actively participate in the new stock issuance [29][31]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading consumer goods label printing manufacturer with strong brand influence and industry position, focusing on high-end consumer brand labels and maintaining long-term relationships with numerous well-known clients [3][8][29]. - The company has demonstrated steady revenue and profit growth, with a projected revenue of 538 million yuan and a net profit of approximately 101.81 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 18.36% and 16.94% over the past three years, respectively [9][14]. - The global self-adhesive label printing market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.3% from 2023 to 2026, with Asia accounting for 44% of the market share, highlighting the significant role of China in this sector [18][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Leadership and Capacity Expansion - The company, established in 1992, specializes in film and paper self-adhesive labels used in various consumer sectors, including beverages, daily chemicals, and food [7]. - The company has a strong market presence, ranking second in the domestic daily chemical label market and fourth in the beverage label market as of 2022 [8]. 2. Issuance Plan - The new stock issuance will adopt a direct pricing method, with an issuance price of 21.21 yuan per share and an expected fundraising of 280 million yuan [12][14]. - The initial issuance scale is 13.21 million shares, accounting for 20% of the total shares post-issuance, with a low expected circulation ratio of 18% [12][14]. 3. Industry Situation - The self-adhesive label market in China is growing, with production increasing from 7.1 billion square meters in 2019 to 9.7 billion square meters in 2023, and projected to reach 15.5 billion square meters by 2031 [18][20]. - The industry is characterized by a large scale but low concentration, with around 6,000 label printing companies in China [20][21]. 4. Competitive Advantages - The company has established a strong client base, including global brands like Unilever and Procter & Gamble, due to its high-quality products and efficient service [22]. - The company possesses advanced printing technologies and a comprehensive solution capability, allowing it to meet diverse customer needs effectively [22][23]. 5. Comparable Companies - The company has a projected revenue of 538.15 million yuan for 2024, with a gross margin of 29.97%, which is competitive compared to its peers [28]. 6. Subscription Analysis Opinion - The company is positioned as a leading player in the high-end consumer goods label printing market, with a strong brand influence and a focus on capacity expansion to solidify its market position [29].