Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of "high prosperity spillover" in the AI sector, suggesting that while the fundamental elasticity may not match the high prosperity itself, there is still potential for elasticity in spillover markets [2][11] - It emphasizes the importance of basic bottom-line requirements for spillover markets, indicating that the prosperity cycle needs to confirm a clear bottom [11] - The report suggests that the valuation structure of high prosperity can break through historical averages, but the spillover structure may face challenges [11] Industry Summaries AI Sector - The report identifies specific industries benefiting from AI price spillover, recommending attention to fiberglass and optical fiber due to their favorable valuations and visible price increases [2][11] - Fiberglass is noted for its strong bargaining power in the global supply chain, with a valuation slightly above historical averages, indicating a favorable risk-reward profile [11] - The optical fiber sector is experiencing a recovery in traditional segments alongside expectations for AI business advancements, presenting a high short-term success rate [11] Real Estate - The report indicates that the most challenging period for the real estate sector may be over, with signs of marginal improvement in supply and demand dynamics [11] - Data shows a narrowing decline in key indicators, with a significant reduction in the year-on-year decline of second-hand housing transactions [11] - Policy measures are being implemented to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on risk management and ensuring the protection of livelihoods [11] Consumer Electronics - The report discusses the impact of the "old-for-new" policy on the home appliance market, noting significant sales volumes and revenue generated from this initiative [15][18] - It highlights the performance of various appliance categories, with a focus on the kitchen appliance sector, which is experiencing varied performance amid high base pressures [18] - The report anticipates that the 2026 "old-for-new" policy will continue to benefit leading brands with superior product efficiency and performance [18] Tourism and Hospitality - The report outlines the expected surge in domestic tourism during the extended Spring Festival holiday, predicting a significant increase in passenger transport volumes [21] - It notes a shift in consumer preferences towards high-quality accommodations and diverse travel experiences, driven by family and senior travelers [21] - The report suggests that the tourism market is experiencing a multi-faceted explosion, with emerging destinations gaining popularity [21]

Group 1: AI High Prosperity Spillover - The report reviews the storage and lithium battery market since September 2025, summarizing the basic rules of the "high prosperity spillover" trend, indicating that while the fundamental elasticity may not be as strong as the high prosperity itself, spillover trends can still exhibit elasticity [2][11] - It highlights that the spillover trend has basic bottom-line requirements, necessitating a clear confirmation of the prosperity cycle's bottom, including manageable demand risks and sufficient supply clearance [11] - The report suggests focusing on industries experiencing AI price spillover, recommending fiberglass due to its reasonable valuation and visible price increases, and optical fiber due to traditional recovery and short-term AI business progress [2][11] Group 2: January Policy Tracking - The report notes that the longest Spring Festival holiday in 2026 is expected to boost consumer spending, which is crucial for driving domestic demand in the first quarter and solidifying the foundation for economic recovery throughout the year [2][10] - It emphasizes the collaborative efforts of multiple ministries to accelerate support for the economy, particularly in consumption, equipment investment, and the private sector, with significant increases in government bond financing [10][13] - Local governments are proactively deploying economic work, moving away from a wait-and-see attitude, with many regions advancing their annual work deployment to early January [10][13] Group 3: January Inflation Analysis - The report discusses the January inflation data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, indicating a CPI increase of 0.2% year-on-year, down from 0.8% previously, and a PPI decrease of 1.4% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [3][12] - It identifies the divergence in inflation as being influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival, external factors, and weak demand, with a notable narrowing of the PPI decline primarily driven by rising copper prices [12][16] - The report also highlights that the CPI remains weak overall, with significant declines in food prices and core commodity CPI, reflecting ongoing challenges in the economy [12][16] Group 4: Home Appliance Industry Insights - The report indicates that the home appliance sector has seen significant sales through the "old-for-new" policy, with over 6.81 million units sold in January, generating substantial revenue [15][18] - It notes that the home appliance market is facing high base pressure in 2025, with a focus on core categories for subsidies, which are expected to benefit leading brands [18] - The report highlights the competitive landscape in the home appliance market, with leading brands gaining market share, particularly in the offline market, while online competition is intensifying [18][19] Group 5: Tourism and Service Industry Outlook - The report anticipates a significant increase in travel during the 2026 Spring Festival, with a projected 95 million passengers expected to travel by air, marking a 5.3% increase year-on-year [21] - It emphasizes the diverse recovery in the domestic tourism market, with family and senior travelers driving demand for high-quality accommodations and unique travel experiences [21][20] - The report suggests that the tourism sector is poised for a strong recovery, with a focus on cross-border travel and differentiated experiences becoming key growth drivers [21][20] Group 6: Banking Sector Analysis - The report discusses the recent approval for a major shareholder of Nanjing Bank to increase their stake above 15%, which is expected to unlock significant incremental capital for the bank [22][23] - It highlights the bank's strong performance, with a projected revenue growth of 10.5% and a net profit growth of approximately 8.1% for 2025, indicating a positive outlook for 2026 [22][23] - The report recommends Nanjing Bank as a buy due to its solid performance, high dividend yield, and the potential for valuation recovery driven by major shareholder support [22][23]

宏 观 研 究 通胀数据 2026 年 02 月 11 日 如何理解 1 月通胀分化？ —— 通胀数据点评（26.01） 事件：2 月 11 日，国家统计局公布 1 月通胀数据，CPI 同比 0.2%、前值 0.8%、预期 0.4%、 环比 0.2%；PPI 同比-1.4%、前值-1.9%、预期-1.5%、环比 0.4%。 相比之下，煤油等大宗商品价格、中下游 PPI 表现偏弱。国际原油价格下行影响国内石油 开采、精炼石油产品制造价格分别下降 3.1%和 2.5%，油价拖累 PPI 环比-0.08%，煤价 也有走弱，拖累 PPI 环比-0.15%。中下游产能利用率也未明显改善，导致上游涨价对中 下游的拉动相对有限，测算中下游仅拉动 PPI 环比 0.1%。 受春节错位的影响，1 月 CPI 同比明显回落；但剔除该因素后，CPI 整体仍偏弱。统计局 测算本轮基期轮换对每月 CPI 同比的影响是 0.06 个百分点。今年春节假期与 2025 年形成 错位，导致 1 月同比较前月回落 0.6 个百分点至 0.2%。而 1 月 CPI 环比仅 0.2%、明显低 于往年春节前月的 CPI 表现（0.6%），反映整体 C ...

Group 1 - The bond market in January was characterized by a correction of pessimistic expectations rather than a reinforcement of easing expectations, with banks and insurance companies increasing their allocation while brokers and funds sold off [9][10] - The bond market may enter a phase of compressed spreads, with various types of spreads being targeted for excess returns, as the market approaches critical points without clear negative signals [10][11] - The core factors driving the configuration-led market include the ability of funding costs and deposit rates to decrease further, and whether the 10-year government bond can break through key levels [10][11] Group 2 - The primary contradictions in the bond market include asset allocation rebalancing, capital outflow from the stock market, and expectations of rising prices, with the first two being the most critical [11][12] - The relationship between stocks and bonds in 2026 continues to reflect a rebalancing of asset allocation, with the stock market showing signs of strength but still needing to monitor capital flows into equities [14][15] - The insurance sector is shifting its liabilities towards dividend insurance, which may affect its preference for long-term bonds, while fixed-income funds are facing challenges in attracting new liabilities [14][17] Group 3 - The continuous decline in the scale of credit bond ETFs since the beginning of the year, with a drop of 101 billion to 514.2 billion, indicates a potential stabilization as selling pressure eases and valuation improves [21][22] - The strong performance of perpetual bonds in early January can be attributed to several factors, including easing valuation pressures and increased demand from insurance companies [24] - The current credit strategy suggests extending duration to 3-5 years for high-grade bonds, while focusing on specific sectors and grades that offer value [25] Group 4 - The core theme in the convertible bond market is pricing elasticity, with demand remaining high despite supply constraints due to maturing bonds and strong redemption expectations [26][29] - The strategy for convertible bonds emphasizes the importance of maintaining adequate positions to achieve relative returns, as low positions may hinder performance [27] - Excess returns in the convertible bond market are expected to come from elastic varieties, particularly those with low premium rates and smaller market caps [29]

2026 年 02 月 11 日 如何通过期权在高波动市场中捕捉 非对称收益？ ——白话期权系列之二 跨式策略（Straddle）： 同时买入平值认购和认沽期权，收益曲线呈"V 型"，对波动最敏感，但成本较高； 宽跨式策略（Strangle）: 同时买入虚值认购和认沽期权，收益曲线呈"U 型"，构建成本较低，但需要标的资产发 生更剧烈的波动才能触及盈利区间。。 相关研究 - 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 衍 生 品 研 究 期 权 权 证 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 波动率收益的来源：与传统资产必须精准预判"方向"不同，期权工具允许投资者构建 "Delta 中性"组合，使收益与方向脱钩，仅与价格变动的"幅度" ...

2026 年 02 月 11 日 2025 海外 ETF：高拥挤格局下的发 展启示 ——指数与创新产品研究系列之十七 相关研究 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ETP 研 究 - ⚫ 美国 ETF 规模持续快速突破，另类产品占比提高。2025 年，美国全部 ETF 的规模达到 13.45 万亿美元，规模涨幅达到 30%；2025 年全年，美国新发 ETF 总数达到 1078 只， 继续创造新高，首次突破 1000 只，美国全部 ETF 的总数达到 4814 只，相比 2024 年末 净增 950 只。相比于全市场整体的产品结构，新发产品数量上发生了较大的变化，另类 产品比例明显提升，这也带动全市场另类产品数量占比达到 30%；新发的债券、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nanjing Bank, indicating a positive outlook for the stock based on expected performance and valuation recovery [6]. Core Insights - The approval for the major shareholder, Jiangsu Transportation Holding, to increase its stake in Nanjing Bank to over 15% opens up potential for additional capital inflow, estimated at approximately 8.1 billion [6]. - Nanjing Bank is expected to demonstrate a "U-shaped improvement" in revenue for 2025, with a projected revenue growth of 10.5% and a stable net profit growth of around 8.1% [6]. - The bank's strong fundamentals, including a high dividend yield of nearly 5% for 2026 and a price-to-book ratio of approximately 0.71x, suggest it is undervalued compared to peers [6][8]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total operating revenue is projected to grow from 45,159.51 million in 2023 to 60,101.87 million in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.21% [5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 18,502.08 million in 2023 to 23,616.22 million in 2026, with a growth rate of 8.30% [5]. - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is projected to remain stable at 0.83% from 2025 to 2027, indicating effective risk management [5]. Market Data - As of February 10, 2026, Nanjing Bank's closing price was 11.33 yuan, with a market capitalization of 140,079 million [1]. - The bank's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2026 is estimated at 6.22, which is competitive compared to other listed banks [8]. - The bank's dividend yield stands at 4.9% for 2026, making it an attractive option for income-focused investors [8].

2026 年 02 月 11 日 南京银行 (601009) ——大股东增持天花板打开，优质城商行属性再凸显 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2026 年 02 月 10 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 11.33 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 12.20/9.91 | | 市净率 | 0.8 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 4.46 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 140,079 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 4,128.37/14,210.63 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 14.73 | | 资产负债率% | 92.73 | | 总股本/流通 A 股(百万) | 12,364/12,364 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -20% 0% 20% 40% 02-10 03-10 04-10 05-10 06-10 07-10 08-10 09- ...

2026 年 02 月 11 日 申万金工成长组合 2.0: 非线性倾斜 加权提升组合收益弹性 申万金工因子观察第 3 期 20260210 相关研究 证券分析师 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 申万金工成长组合是依托于对上市公司未来高业绩增速的预测来实现的:通过分析师的一 ○ 致预期数据，首先，对全市场有分析师覆盖的股票里，取当前一年盈利预测增速前一半的 股票作为股票池;第二,在股票池内,10 月底时剔除前三季度累计盈利增速为负的样本; 第三，在股票池里使用分析师一致预期变化因子最终筛选出 50 只股票。 考虑到投资者对成长组合的需求往往是希望在成长风格来临的时候有更强的收益弹性。本 文考虑结合行业轮动模型对成长组合进行一次升级。以申万金工行业轮动模型的框架为 例,其主要的使用因子包括了基本面、资金面和技术面,其中技术面都偏价格动量,基本 面和资金面偏向业绩动量,在因子分域的思路下, 申万金工行业轮动模型还根据动量占优 和不占 ...

2026 年 02 月 11 日 申万金工成长组合 2.0：非线性倾斜 加权提升组合收益弹性 申万金工因子观察第 3 期 20260210 证 券 研 究 相关研究 证券分析师 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 权 益 量 化 研 究 股 票 基 金 报 告 - 股票基金 ⚫ 申万金工成长组合是依托于对上市公司未来高业绩增速的预测来实现的：通过分析师的一 致预期数据，首先，对全市场有分析师覆盖的股票里，取当前一年盈利预测增速前一半的 股票作为股票池；第二，在股票池内，10 月底时剔除前三季度累计盈利增速为负的样本； 第三，在股票池里使用分析师一致预期变化因子最终筛选出 50 只股票。 ⚫ 考虑到投资者对成长组合的需求往往是希望在成长风格来临的时候有更强的收益弹性。本 文考虑结合行业轮动模型对成长组合进行一次升级。以申万金工行业轮动模型的框架为 例，其主要的使用因子包括了基本面、资金面 ...