策 略 研 究 2025 年 12 月 15 日 双欣环保：全产业链布局，高端化转 型提速 新股分析 证券分析师 彭文玉 A0230517080001 pengwy@swsresearch.com 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 任奕璇 A0230525050002 renyx2@swsresearch.com 研究支持 陈榕杰 A0230125080001 chenrj@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈榕杰 (8621)23297818× chenrj@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 ——注册制新股纵览 20251215 本期投资提示： 相关研究 - 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 申 购 策 略 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 剔除流动性溢价因素后，双欣环保 2.53 分，位于总分的 34.4%分位。双欣环保于 2025 年 12 月 11 日招股，将在主板上市。剔除、考虑流动性溢价因素后，我们测算双欣环保 AHP ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077) [1] Core Views - The bank is positioned to benefit from high dividend yields and a solid provisioning base, with expectations for valuation improvement due to its strong performance and new management goals [7][8] - The bank's extensive network in rural areas provides a competitive advantage, allowing it to capitalize on regional growth opportunities [7][10] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank has a total asset size of approximately 1.66 trillion yuan, ranking first among listed rural commercial banks [20] - The bank has over 1,700 branches, with 82.4% located in rural areas, providing a strong deposit base and low funding costs [20][22] 2. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Projected total revenue for 2025 is approximately 28.61 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.23% [6] - Expected net profit for 2025 is around 12.10 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 5.09% [6] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 9.27% in 2025, with a gradual improvement expected in subsequent years [6] 3. Investment Analysis - The bank is expected to gradually eliminate its valuation discount due to its robust performance and high dividend yield, which is projected to be nearly 5% in 2025 [8] - The anticipated growth rates for net profit from 2025 to 2027 are 5.1%, 9.5%, and 10.2%, respectively [9][8] - The report highlights the potential for asset growth driven by urban expansion and improved operational efficiency [10][30] 4. Management and Strategic Direction - The new management team, led by Liu Xiaojun, aims to significantly enhance key performance indicators by the end of 2027 [10][30] - The bank's strategy includes penetrating urban markets to increase loan productivity and overall asset size [10][30] 5. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The bank benefits from low deposit costs and a strong credit quality foundation, which supports its competitive net interest margin [32] - The bank's credit cost is projected to remain low, further enhancing its profitability [32]

宏 观 研 究 经济数据 2025 年 12 月 15 日 11 月经济：从"分化"看"转型" 消费：促消费政策从商品转向服务，社会消费品零售走弱、但服务零售走强。电商促销前 置效应消退，金银珠宝、日用品等零售增速下行；国补退坡叠加需求透支效应影响下，家 电、汽车和家具等以旧换新类商品消费走弱，共同拖累社零增速下行至 1.3%；服务消费 表现积极，虽然占比较小的餐饮收入偏弱，但全口径服务零售额累计同比上行至 5.4%。 地产：受个别房企信用风险影响，地产融资走弱拖累投资加速下行。11 月，房企自筹资 金明显走弱，拖累房企信用融资增速大幅下行 11.5pct 至-25.3%，相应拖累地产投资增 速（-6.9pct 至-29.9%）大幅下行，新开工（-27.7%）、竣工（-25.4%）仍维持较深负 增长区间。销售端，房价仍在下滑，商品房销售面积、销售金额分别回升 7.7pct、2.8pct。 投资：本轮政策加码缓解了化债对投资的"挤出效应"，固投当月同比录得二季度以来首 次反弹。11 月固定投资当月同比回升 2.1pct 至-10.1%，剔除价格后实际增速回升 2.7pct 至-7%；分行业看，伴随特殊再融资债超 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its performance relative to the market [6]. Core Insights - The strategic partnership between the company and Royal Philips aims to enhance the availability of high-quality health technology products in the Chinese market, focusing on various home health monitoring devices [4][6]. - The collaboration is expected to leverage Philips' technological expertise and brand resources alongside the company's strengths in innovation, manufacturing, and channel operations, creating a comprehensive health management ecosystem for Chinese families [6]. - The report anticipates long-term growth for the company, despite a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 due to overall domestic demand fluctuations [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Projected total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 3,348 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 12.3% [5]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is 391 million yuan, with a growth rate of 25.3% [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 1.87 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 24 times [5]. - The company’s net profit is projected to reach 592 million yuan by 2027, with a PE ratio of 16 times, significantly lower than the overall medical device industry PE of 38 times for 2025 [6].

新股分析 2025 年 12 月 15 日 强一股份：率先实现 MEMS 探针 at = 注册制新股纵览 20251215 本期投资提示: 由万宏源研究微信服务 证券分析师 彭文玉 A0230517080001 pengwy@swsresearch.com 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 任奕璇 A0230525050002 renyx2@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱敏 (8621)23297818× zhumin@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 AHP 得分及配售比例: 剔除、考虑流动性溢价因素后, 我们测算强一股份 AHP 得分为 2.53 ● 分、2.24 分，分别位于科创体系 AHP 模型总分 41.6%分位、39.3%分位,处于中游偏上、 下游偏上水平。假设以 90%入围率计，中性预期情形下，强一股份网下 A、B 两类配售对象 的配售比例分别是：0.0285%、0.0211%。 MEMS 探针卡持续放量，全球前十强唯一境内企业。公司是拥有自主 MEMS 探针制造技术 0 并能够批量生产 MEM ...

2025 年 12 月 15 日 论债市定价权的转移 近期市场反馈及思考 8 投资者当下更为关心的是"谁在主导债市的定价权、2026年是否存在预期差、以及什么策略可能 较为有效"。本文就以上话题汇总投资者最为关心的 10 个话题(涵盖利率、信用及转债等方面）。 谁主导了债市 (特别是长债、超长债) 的定价权? 2026 年 1 季度与 2025 年同期的债市环境有何不同? 相关研究 "资金分流+反内卷" 下的债市 导逻辑变迁 -近期市场反馈及 2025/08/18 思考 5》 《债市"走楼梯"行情下的困境与 近期市场反馈及思考 4》 做同 券研究报 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 奕强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 张晋源 A0230525040001 ...

TMT 板块涨幅领先,三只有色 ETF 申报 指数化投资周报 20251215 产品成立募集情况： 2025 年 12 月 15 日 产品成立方面,最近一周,东财中证港股通科技 ETF、博时中证银行 ETF 等 4 只 ETF 产 品上市；宝盈中证 A500 指数增强 A、华夏国证港股通科技 ETF 联接 A、联博中证 500 指数增强 A 等 11 只产品成立。 募集方面，未来一周 18 只指数产品结束募集，9 只指数产品将开始募集。结束募集的指 数产品包括长信上证科创板综合指数增强 A 和易方达中证港股通高股息投资 ETF 等 18 只产品, 开始募集的指数产品包括广发国证工业软件主题 ETF、易方达中证港股通医疗主 题 ETF 等 9 只产品。 申报方面，最近一周共计 34 只指数产品进行申报，伴随有色金属过去几个月的上涨行 情，有色方向的 ETF 产品关注度也有进一步提升,最近一周,鹏华、博时申报中证工业 有色金属主题 ETF，景顺长城申报中证有色金属矿业主题 ETF 。 证券分析师 方思齐 A0230525090002 fangsq@swsresearch.com 联系人 方思齐 A02305250 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power sector, particularly following the increase in coal power capacity pricing in Yunnan, which is expected to stabilize revenue for coal power companies [6][8]. Core Insights - Yunnan has announced an increase in the coal power capacity price recovery of fixed costs to 100%, effective from 2026, which will enhance the stability of coal power revenues and support the integration of renewable energy sources [6][7]. - The report highlights a significant drop in natural gas prices in the U.S. and Northeast Asia, with the latter reaching a 20-month low, indicating a favorable environment for gas companies [10][24]. - The investment analysis suggests a diversified revenue model for coal power companies, transitioning from reliance on electricity sales to a combination of electricity, capacity, and ancillary service revenues [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - Yunnan's new policy sets the coal power capacity price at 330 RMB per kilowatt per year, allowing full recovery of fixed costs, which is expected to improve the profitability of coal power plants [6][7]. - The province's total installed power capacity exceeds 168 million kilowatts, with over 90% being green energy, necessitating coal power for peak load support [7]. - The report recommends several companies, including Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian, for their integrated coal power operations [8]. 2. Natural Gas Sector - U.S. Henry Hub spot prices fell to $4.07/mmBtu, a decrease of 21.56% week-on-week, while Northeast Asia LNG prices dropped to $10/mmBtu, down 6.19% [10][11]. - The report notes that strong supply and high inventory levels in Northeast Asia are contributing to the price decline, with expectations of further price sensitivity from buyers as prices approach $10/mmBtu [24][26]. - Investment recommendations include companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, which are expected to benefit from lower costs and improved margins [31][32]. 3. Market Performance - The report indicates that the power and equipment sectors outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index during the review period, while the gas and environmental sectors lagged [34]. - It provides a detailed valuation table for key utility companies, highlighting their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [46]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent government policies emphasize the development of a clean, low-carbon energy system, with a target of 25% non-fossil energy consumption by 2030 [40][41]. - The report discusses the ongoing transition in the energy sector towards market-driven growth, particularly in new energy storage solutions [41].

策 略 研 究 新股分析 2025 年 12 月 15 日 强一股份：率先实现 MEMS 探针卡 自主量产 ——注册制新股纵览 20251215 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 相关研究 证券分析师 彭文玉 A0230517080001 pengwy@swsresearch.com 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 任奕璇 A0230525050002 renyx2@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱敏 (8621)23297818× zhumin@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 申 购 策 略 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ AHP 得分及配售比例：剔除、考虑流动性溢价因素后，我们测算强一股份 AHP 得分为 2.53 分、2.24 分，分别位于科创体系 AHP 模型总分 41.6%分位、39.3%分位，处于中游偏上、 下游偏上水平。假设以 90%入围率计，中性预期情形下，强一股份网下 A、B 两类配售对象 的配售比例分别是：0.0285%、0.0211%。 ⚫ MEMS 探针 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2][25]. Core Insights - Fixed asset investment in China showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November 2025, with manufacturing investment increasing by 1.9% [2][3]. - Traditional infrastructure investment has seen a widening decline, necessitating a stabilization of investment. Infrastructure investment (including all categories) grew by only 0.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [4][3]. - Real estate investment remains low, with a year-on-year decline of 15.9% from January to November 2025, indicating a weak recovery trajectory [11][3]. Summary by Sections Fixed Asset Investment - The cumulative year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment is 2.6%, with a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - Manufacturing investment has increased by 1.9%, but this is still a decline of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous month [2]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) has a year-on-year decline of 1.1%, with a decrease of 1.0 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - Specific sectors such as transportation, storage, and postal services saw a decline of 0.1%, while water, environment, and public facilities management experienced a decline of 6.3% [4]. Regional Investment Trends - Eastern regions reported a year-on-year decline of 6.6%, while central and western regions saw declines of 1.7% and 0.2%, respectively. The northeastern region faced a significant decline of 14.0% [4]. Real Estate Investment - Real estate investment has decreased by 15.9% year-on-year, with construction starts down by 20.5% and completions down by 18.0% [11]. - The current cycle is characterized by excessive clearing of supply entities and difficulties in inventory replenishment, leading to a slow recovery in investment [11]. Investment Recommendations - For 2026, the industry is expected to stabilize, with emerging sectors likely to benefit from major national strategies. Key companies to watch include Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Chemical, and others in new infrastructure and overseas markets [16].