Group 1: Characteristics of Green Finance Development in 2025 - Six major characteristics of green finance development in China include unified standards and expanded boundaries, with multi-department collaboration to build a comprehensive support system[2] - Transition finance has become the core of development, with local standards being introduced in key reform areas, covering advanced technology and significant carbon reduction[2] - Diverse innovation in green financial products, with ESG investments and passive products facilitating the introduction of long-term green capital into the market[2] Group 2: Current Challenges and Future Trends - China's green finance is transitioning from "scale catch-up" to "quality and quantity improvement," facing challenges such as low supply efficiency and insufficient product innovation[3] - The overall service efficiency of green finance remains low, with a need for improved infrastructure and better alignment of supply and demand[3] - By 2026, green finance is expected to be fully integrated into the national strategic system, with a focus on enhancing market structure and service capabilities[5] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Innovations - The carbon market is expanding, with a trading volume of 235 million tons in 2025, a 24% increase year-on-year, although the average trading price decreased by 23.4% to 62.36 yuan per ton[28] - Innovative financial products are emerging, such as biodiversity loans and sustainable development-linked bonds, which support low-carbon transition projects in various industries[15] - The integration of digital finance and green finance is accelerating, with digital RMB supporting green consumption and cross-border trade, enhancing user engagement[25]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the home furnishing and paper industries, with specific recommendations for companies with high dividend safety margins and growth potential [3][5]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is at a valuation bottom, with real estate policies expected to catalyze upward valuation movements. Industry consolidation is accelerating, and companies like Gujia Home, Sophia, and Oppein are highlighted for their strong dividend safety margins [3][5]. - In the paper industry, short-term stability in boxboard prices is noted, with an optimistic mid-term supply-demand balance expected to enhance industry profitability. Companies like Nine Dragons Paper are recognized for exceeding performance expectations [3][5]. - Bull Group is positioned for steady recovery in its traditional business due to improving real estate and consumer sentiment, while new business areas such as overseas expansion and smart lighting present growth opportunities [3][5]. - Consumer sentiment is rebounding, with a focus on personal care growth stocks like Baiya, Dengkang Dental, and Zhongshun Jierou [3][5]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector is experiencing a valuation bottom, with real estate policies likely to improve market sentiment and demand. The increase in second-hand housing transactions is expected to support the demand side, leading to a long-term expansion of the industry [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the acceleration of industry consolidation since 2025, with mid-tier companies exiting the market and capital entering leading firms, enhancing industry concentration [6][16]. - Companies to watch include Gujia Home, Sophia, Oppein, Mousse, and Xilinmen, which are expected to benefit from valuation recovery [5][6]. Paper Industry - The report notes that boxboard prices are stable in the short term, with an anticipated improvement in the supply-demand structure that could enhance profitability in the mid-term. Companies like Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper are highlighted for their strong positions [3][5]. - The report suggests monitoring the potential impact of anti-involution policies and demand changes, which could contribute to cyclical elasticity in the paper sector [7][8]. - Specific recommendations include focusing on companies with integrated supply chains and significant cost advantages, such as Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper [7][8]. Bull Group - The Bull Group is expected to see steady recovery in its traditional business due to improving real estate and consumer sentiment. The company is also expanding into new areas such as smart lighting and renewable energy, which are anticipated to drive growth [10][11]. - The report highlights the company's competitive advantages in product, channel, and supply chain management, which are expected to support stable growth in 2026 [10][11]. Consumer Goods - The report indicates a rebound in consumer sentiment, with a focus on personal care growth stocks. Companies like Baiya, Dengkang Dental, and Zhongshun Jierou are noted for their potential in the market [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company has recently become the controlling shareholder of Shanghai Fuyou Xinghe Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd., holding a 60% stake, which enhances its capabilities in the satellite manufacturing sector [6]. - The company is entering the space energy market, which is expected to experience significant growth, particularly in low-cost and efficient energy solutions for low-orbit satellite constellations [6]. - The company has established a partnership with a technology team from the Chinese Academy of Sciences to develop advanced solar cell technologies, aiming to replace current mainstream solutions and reduce costs [6]. - The company is transitioning from being a component supplier to a satellite manufacturer, creating synergies between its energy products and satellite platforms [6]. - The company's ground photovoltaic business remains competitive, with a significant increase in overseas sales, which accounted for 51.87% of total sales in the first half of 2025, up from 23.85% in 2024 [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to decline from 9,952 million yuan in 2024 to 7,965 million yuan in 2025, with a subsequent recovery to 10,531 million yuan in 2026 and 12,743 million yuan in 2027 [5]. - The net profit is expected to be -1,312 million yuan in 2025, followed by a recovery to 493 million yuan in 2026 and 1,053 million yuan in 2027 [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be -4.21 yuan in 2025, improving to 1.58 yuan in 2026 and 3.38 yuan in 2027 [5]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be -30.8% in 2025, recovering to 10.1% in 2026 and 17.8% in 2027 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home furnishing and paper industries, indicating potential for valuation recovery and growth opportunities [3][5]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is at a valuation bottom, with real estate policies expected to catalyze upward valuation movements. Industry consolidation is accelerating, with a focus on companies with high dividend safety margins such as Gujia Home, Sophia, and Oppein [3][5]. - In the paper industry, short-term stability in corrugated box prices is noted, with an optimistic mid-term supply-demand balance expected to enhance industry profitability. Companies like Nine Dragons Paper are highlighted for exceeding performance expectations [3][5]. - Bull Group is positioned for steady recovery in its traditional business due to improving real estate and consumer sentiment, while new ventures in overseas markets, smart lighting, and renewable energy are opening growth avenues [3][5]. - Consumer sentiment is rebounding, with a focus on personal care growth stocks such as Baiya, Dengkang Dental, and Zhongshun Jierou [3][5]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The sector is experiencing a valuation bottom, with real estate policies likely to improve market sentiment and demand. The increase in second-hand housing transactions is expected to support home furnishing demand, leading to a long-term expansion of the industry [5][6]. - The ongoing consolidation in the industry is pushing mid-tier companies out, while capital from industrial players is entering leading home furnishing firms, enhancing market concentration [5][6]. Paper Industry - Short-term price stability in corrugated boxes is observed, with a potential mid-term improvement in supply-demand dynamics expected to boost profitability. The report emphasizes the importance of integrated supply chains and cost advantages in companies like Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper [7][9]. - The report suggests that the paper industry is nearing a bottom, with cost structures supporting price stability and potential for upward movement in demand [7][9]. Bull Group - The company is expected to benefit from improving real estate conditions and consumer sentiment, with traditional business lines poised for recovery. New business areas such as smart lighting and renewable energy are anticipated to contribute to growth [11][12]. Consumer Goods - The report highlights a rebound in consumer sentiment, with a focus on personal care companies that are expected to show growth potential. Companies like Baiya and Dengkang Dental are noted for their promising performance in 2026 [14][15]. Packaging Industry - The report discusses the performance of overseas packaging companies, with Ball Corporation and Amcor showing strong results. Ball's revenue for FY25 reached $13.2 billion, a 12% increase year-on-year, while Amcor's revenue for FY26H1 was $11.2 billion, a 70% increase [15][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company has become the controlling shareholder of Shanghai Fuyou Xinghe Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd., holding 60% of its shares, which enhances its capabilities in satellite manufacturing and space energy solutions [6]. - The company is entering the burgeoning low-orbit satellite constellation and space computing industry, aiming to develop cost-effective and efficient energy solutions, potentially replacing current mainstream technologies [6]. - The company is transitioning from a single ground photovoltaic enterprise to a dual-driven strategy of "ground photovoltaic + space business," which is expected to provide significant growth opportunities [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to decline from 9,952 million yuan in 2024 to 7,965 million yuan in 2025, with a subsequent recovery to 10,531 million yuan in 2026 and 12,743 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 32.2% and 21.0% respectively [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -1,312 million yuan in 2025, followed by a recovery to 493 million yuan in 2026 and 1,053 million yuan in 2027, indicating a significant turnaround with a growth rate of 113.6% in 2027 [5]. - The company's gross margin is anticipated to improve from 0.0% in 2025 to 10.0% in 2026 and 15.0% in 2027, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [5].

Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of "high prosperity spillover" in the AI sector, suggesting that while the fundamental elasticity may not match the high prosperity itself, there is still potential for elasticity in spillover markets [2][11] - It emphasizes the importance of basic bottom-line requirements for spillover markets, indicating that the prosperity cycle needs to confirm a clear bottom [11] - The report suggests that the valuation structure of high prosperity can break through historical averages, but the spillover structure may face challenges [11] Industry Summaries AI Sector - The report identifies specific industries benefiting from AI price spillover, recommending attention to fiberglass and optical fiber due to their favorable valuations and visible price increases [2][11] - Fiberglass is noted for its strong bargaining power in the global supply chain, with a valuation slightly above historical averages, indicating a favorable risk-reward profile [11] - The optical fiber sector is experiencing a recovery in traditional segments alongside expectations for AI business advancements, presenting a high short-term success rate [11] Real Estate - The report indicates that the most challenging period for the real estate sector may be over, with signs of marginal improvement in supply and demand dynamics [11] - Data shows a narrowing decline in key indicators, with a significant reduction in the year-on-year decline of second-hand housing transactions [11] - Policy measures are being implemented to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on risk management and ensuring the protection of livelihoods [11] Consumer Electronics - The report discusses the impact of the "old-for-new" policy on the home appliance market, noting significant sales volumes and revenue generated from this initiative [15][18] - It highlights the performance of various appliance categories, with a focus on the kitchen appliance sector, which is experiencing varied performance amid high base pressures [18] - The report anticipates that the 2026 "old-for-new" policy will continue to benefit leading brands with superior product efficiency and performance [18] Tourism and Hospitality - The report outlines the expected surge in domestic tourism during the extended Spring Festival holiday, predicting a significant increase in passenger transport volumes [21] - It notes a shift in consumer preferences towards high-quality accommodations and diverse travel experiences, driven by family and senior travelers [21] - The report suggests that the tourism market is experiencing a multi-faceted explosion, with emerging destinations gaining popularity [21]

Group 1: AI High Prosperity Spillover - The report reviews the storage and lithium battery market since September 2025, summarizing the basic rules of the "high prosperity spillover" trend, indicating that while the fundamental elasticity may not be as strong as the high prosperity itself, spillover trends can still exhibit elasticity [2][11] - It highlights that the spillover trend has basic bottom-line requirements, necessitating a clear confirmation of the prosperity cycle's bottom, including manageable demand risks and sufficient supply clearance [11] - The report suggests focusing on industries experiencing AI price spillover, recommending fiberglass due to its reasonable valuation and visible price increases, and optical fiber due to traditional recovery and short-term AI business progress [2][11] Group 2: January Policy Tracking - The report notes that the longest Spring Festival holiday in 2026 is expected to boost consumer spending, which is crucial for driving domestic demand in the first quarter and solidifying the foundation for economic recovery throughout the year [2][10] - It emphasizes the collaborative efforts of multiple ministries to accelerate support for the economy, particularly in consumption, equipment investment, and the private sector, with significant increases in government bond financing [10][13] - Local governments are proactively deploying economic work, moving away from a wait-and-see attitude, with many regions advancing their annual work deployment to early January [10][13] Group 3: January Inflation Analysis - The report discusses the January inflation data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, indicating a CPI increase of 0.2% year-on-year, down from 0.8% previously, and a PPI decrease of 1.4% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [3][12] - It identifies the divergence in inflation as being influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival, external factors, and weak demand, with a notable narrowing of the PPI decline primarily driven by rising copper prices [12][16] - The report also highlights that the CPI remains weak overall, with significant declines in food prices and core commodity CPI, reflecting ongoing challenges in the economy [12][16] Group 4: Home Appliance Industry Insights - The report indicates that the home appliance sector has seen significant sales through the "old-for-new" policy, with over 6.81 million units sold in January, generating substantial revenue [15][18] - It notes that the home appliance market is facing high base pressure in 2025, with a focus on core categories for subsidies, which are expected to benefit leading brands [18] - The report highlights the competitive landscape in the home appliance market, with leading brands gaining market share, particularly in the offline market, while online competition is intensifying [18][19] Group 5: Tourism and Service Industry Outlook - The report anticipates a significant increase in travel during the 2026 Spring Festival, with a projected 95 million passengers expected to travel by air, marking a 5.3% increase year-on-year [21] - It emphasizes the diverse recovery in the domestic tourism market, with family and senior travelers driving demand for high-quality accommodations and unique travel experiences [21][20] - The report suggests that the tourism sector is poised for a strong recovery, with a focus on cross-border travel and differentiated experiences becoming key growth drivers [21][20] Group 6: Banking Sector Analysis - The report discusses the recent approval for a major shareholder of Nanjing Bank to increase their stake above 15%, which is expected to unlock significant incremental capital for the bank [22][23] - It highlights the bank's strong performance, with a projected revenue growth of 10.5% and a net profit growth of approximately 8.1% for 2025, indicating a positive outlook for 2026 [22][23] - The report recommends Nanjing Bank as a buy due to its solid performance, high dividend yield, and the potential for valuation recovery driven by major shareholder support [22][23]

宏 观 研 究 通胀数据 2026 年 02 月 11 日 如何理解 1 月通胀分化？ —— 通胀数据点评（26.01） 事件：2 月 11 日，国家统计局公布 1 月通胀数据，CPI 同比 0.2%、前值 0.8%、预期 0.4%、 环比 0.2%；PPI 同比-1.4%、前值-1.9%、预期-1.5%、环比 0.4%。 相比之下，煤油等大宗商品价格、中下游 PPI 表现偏弱。国际原油价格下行影响国内石油 开采、精炼石油产品制造价格分别下降 3.1%和 2.5%，油价拖累 PPI 环比-0.08%，煤价 也有走弱，拖累 PPI 环比-0.15%。中下游产能利用率也未明显改善，导致上游涨价对中 下游的拉动相对有限，测算中下游仅拉动 PPI 环比 0.1%。 受春节错位的影响，1 月 CPI 同比明显回落；但剔除该因素后，CPI 整体仍偏弱。统计局 测算本轮基期轮换对每月 CPI 同比的影响是 0.06 个百分点。今年春节假期与 2025 年形成 错位，导致 1 月同比较前月回落 0.6 个百分点至 0.2%。而 1 月 CPI 环比仅 0.2%、明显低 于往年春节前月的 CPI 表现（0.6%），反映整体 C ...

Group 1 - The bond market in January was characterized by a correction of pessimistic expectations rather than a reinforcement of easing expectations, with banks and insurance companies increasing their allocation while brokers and funds sold off [9][10] - The bond market may enter a phase of compressed spreads, with various types of spreads being targeted for excess returns, as the market approaches critical points without clear negative signals [10][11] - The core factors driving the configuration-led market include the ability of funding costs and deposit rates to decrease further, and whether the 10-year government bond can break through key levels [10][11] Group 2 - The primary contradictions in the bond market include asset allocation rebalancing, capital outflow from the stock market, and expectations of rising prices, with the first two being the most critical [11][12] - The relationship between stocks and bonds in 2026 continues to reflect a rebalancing of asset allocation, with the stock market showing signs of strength but still needing to monitor capital flows into equities [14][15] - The insurance sector is shifting its liabilities towards dividend insurance, which may affect its preference for long-term bonds, while fixed-income funds are facing challenges in attracting new liabilities [14][17] Group 3 - The continuous decline in the scale of credit bond ETFs since the beginning of the year, with a drop of 101 billion to 514.2 billion, indicates a potential stabilization as selling pressure eases and valuation improves [21][22] - The strong performance of perpetual bonds in early January can be attributed to several factors, including easing valuation pressures and increased demand from insurance companies [24] - The current credit strategy suggests extending duration to 3-5 years for high-grade bonds, while focusing on specific sectors and grades that offer value [25] Group 4 - The core theme in the convertible bond market is pricing elasticity, with demand remaining high despite supply constraints due to maturing bonds and strong redemption expectations [26][29] - The strategy for convertible bonds emphasizes the importance of maintaining adequate positions to achieve relative returns, as low positions may hinder performance [27] - Excess returns in the convertible bond market are expected to come from elastic varieties, particularly those with low premium rates and smaller market caps [29]

2026 年 02 月 11 日 如何通过期权在高波动市场中捕捉 非对称收益？ ——白话期权系列之二 跨式策略（Straddle）： 同时买入平值认购和认沽期权，收益曲线呈"V 型"，对波动最敏感，但成本较高； 宽跨式策略（Strangle）: 同时买入虚值认购和认沽期权，收益曲线呈"U 型"，构建成本较低，但需要标的资产发 生更剧烈的波动才能触及盈利区间。。 相关研究 - 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 衍 生 品 研 究 期 权 权 证 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 波动率收益的来源：与传统资产必须精准预判"方向"不同，期权工具允许投资者构建 "Delta 中性"组合，使收益与方向脱钩，仅与价格变动的"幅度" ...