证券研究报告 因子分域下的行业轮动框架 申万行业轮动框架介绍 证券分析师：方思齐 A0230525090002 邓虎 A0230520070003 沈思逸 A0230521070001 2025.12.14 主要内容 2 1. 轮动框架介绍：基本面——基于一致预期与财报 2. 轮动框架介绍：资金面——基于投资者资金流向 3. 轮动框架介绍：技术面——基于量价表现 4. 多因子合成与因子分域的进一步改造 5. 风险收益提示 1.1 业绩预期：一致预期变化率更能反映分析师观点 表1：指标IC表现-一致预期 | 因子名称 | Rank_IC | IC_IR | IC>0 比例 | | | 因子五分组年化收益比较 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q5 | | 预测净利润(Y1)_chg_3m | 4.99% | 20.78% | 59.66% | -4.32% | -3.69% | 0.42% | 2.31% | -0.72% | | 预测净利润(Y2)_chg_3m ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a moderate recovery in consumer spending, with tourism-related prices showing strong performance. The national CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year in November 2025, reflecting a continued recovery in consumer spending [2][7]. - Hotel prices have shown resilience despite seasonal demand fluctuations, with the average hotel room price maintaining positive growth year-on-year. The RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) has only slightly declined, indicating a shift from a volume-driven recovery to a price-stabilized and optimized operational approach [2][8]. - The introduction of REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) in the service industry is expected to clarify the asset securitization path for various service sectors, including tourism and hospitality. This initiative aims to revitalize existing assets and improve financial structures [2][22][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Hotel Structure Differentiation and Price Resilience - The hotel industry is experiencing a seasonal decline in occupancy rates, but average room prices remain stable, with an ADR (Average Daily Rate) of 388.8 CNY per night in early December, up 4.3% year-on-year [8][10]. - The RevPAR for the week ending December 6, 2025, was 233 CNY per night, showing only a 0.4% decline year-on-year, indicating a recovery phase focused on price stability and operational efficiency [8][10]. 2. REITs Supporting Asset Securitization in the Service Industry - The newly released REITs project industry scope includes cultural tourism infrastructure and commercial facilities, allowing for a clearer path to asset securitization for hotels and tourist attractions [22][23]. - The report emphasizes that the inclusion of high-quality service industry assets in the REITs framework will enhance cash flow stability and operational efficiency, ultimately benefiting the valuation and investment landscape of the sector [22][24]. 3. Valuation of Key Industry Companies - The report provides a detailed valuation of key companies in the tourism and hospitality sectors, including metrics such as market capitalization and PE ratios, indicating a diverse range of investment opportunities [26]. - Notable companies highlighted for investment consideration include tourism sites like Sanxia Tourism and hotels like Shoulu Hotel and Huazhu [26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [4][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slowdown in credit growth, with November's new social financing at 2.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 159.7 billion yuan, and new loans of 390 billion yuan, down 190 billion yuan year-on-year. The M1 money supply grew by 4.9%, while M2 increased by 8.0%, both showing a decline in growth rates compared to the previous month [1][4]. - The report anticipates that while credit growth may not accelerate significantly, the central bank's commitment to a "moderately loose monetary policy" and support for banks' net interest margins will likely lead to improved revenue for the banking sector in 2026 [4][2]. - Retail demand remains under pressure, with a net decrease in household credit of nearly 206 billion yuan in November, reflecting ongoing deleveraging among consumers. The report suggests that a recovery in retail demand will depend on improvements in household income [4][2]. Summary by Sections Credit and Financing - In November, new loans totaled 390 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 190 billion yuan, with total new loans from January to November at 15.4 trillion yuan, down 1.7 trillion yuan year-on-year. The growth rate of RMB loans remained stable at 6.3% [4][1]. - The report notes that corporate loans saw a slight increase, with 270 billion yuan in new loans, while the issuance of corporate bonds and off-balance-sheet financing provided support against government debt and credit drag [4][7]. Monetary Supply - The M1 money supply grew by 4.9% year-on-year, down from 7.1% in the previous year, while M2 increased by 8.0%, showing a slight decline in growth rates [4][8]. - The report indicates that the decrease in deposits reflects a shift in non-bank deposits, which is closely related to the activity in the equity market [4][8]. Future Outlook - The report expresses optimism for 2026, expecting that the focus on corporate lending will continue, and improvements in the Producer Price Index (PPI) may enhance corporate profitability, positively impacting bank earnings [4][2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the effectiveness of stimulus policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, which could lead to a more favorable environment for banks [4][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical industry, recommending a focus on innovative drugs and sectors with improving performance, such as medical devices and upstream segments [3][4]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a decline of 1.0% this week, ranking 17th among 31 sub-industries. The overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector stands at 29.2 times earnings, placing it 10th among the primary industries [2][4][7]. - Key events include Fosun Pharma granting exclusive global rights for its oral GLP-1 drug to Pfizer, with potential total payments reaching $2.085 billion. Additionally, Eli Lilly's GLP-1/GIP/GCGR agonist Retatrutide showed promising Phase III clinical data, achieving a weight loss of 28.7% over 68 weeks [3][14][17]. - The report highlights significant mergers and acquisitions, such as Sobi's acquisition of Arthrosi for $950 million upfront and $550 million in milestone payments, and Zhaoli Pharmaceutical's planned acquisition of a multi-trace element injection asset group for approximately RMB 356 million [3][15][22]. Market Performance - The pharmaceutical index decreased by 1.0% this week, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.3%. The overall performance of the pharmaceutical sector was ranked 17th among 31 sub-industries [2][4][6]. - The report details the performance of various sub-sectors, with notable declines in medical circulation (-4.2%), offline pharmacies (-4.3%), and blood products (-4.1%), while medical R&D outsourcing saw an increase of 3.7% [7][11]. Recent Key Events - The report discusses recent business developments, including the approval of Shanghai Pharma's new drug, and the change of control at Tailong Pharmaceutical, which will now be under Jiang Pharmaceutical Holdings [20][22]. - It also notes the IPO application of Shiyao Innovation, which was accepted with a market value of RMB 47.9 billion, focusing on health-related sectors and innovative drugs [23]. Company Valuation - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the pharmaceutical sector, indicating projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025 to 2027. For instance, Mindray Medical is projected to have a PE of 23 in 2025, while Hengrui Medicine is expected to have a PE of 48 [29].

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of December 12, 2025, shows the following PE and PB ratios: - CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 21x, PB at 1.8x, at historical percentiles of 77% and 39% respectively - SSE 50 PE at 11.7x, PB at 1.3x, at historical percentiles of 62% and 40% - CSI 300 PE at 13.9x, PB at 1.4x, at historical percentiles of 61% and 31% - CSI 500 PE at 32.7x, PB at 2.2x, at historical percentiles of 61% and 45% - CSI 1000 PE at 46.6x, PB at 2.4x, at historical percentiles of 66% and 45% - National Index 2000 PE at 59.8x, PB at 2.6x, at historical percentiles of 76% and 60% - ChiNext Index PE at 40.7x, PB at 5.2x, at historical percentiles of 35% and 59% - Sci-Tech 50 PE at 152.3x, PB at 6x, at historical percentiles of 96% and 63% - ChiNext Index/CSI 300 PE at 2.9x, PB at 3.6x, at historical percentiles of 23% and 58% [2][3][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include: - Real Estate, Retail Trade, and IT Services (Software Development) - Industries with PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile include: - Electronics (Semiconductors) and Telecommunications - Industries with both PE and PB below the historical 15th percentile include: - Medical Services [2][3][7] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - Photovoltaics: - Upstream prices remain stable, with polysilicon futures down 2.9% - Demand expected to remain weak before the Spring Festival, limiting price increases - Batteries: - Cobalt and nickel prices down 0.8% and 1.4% respectively - Lithium prices show an upward trend, with lithium hexafluorophosphate up 0.3% and carbonate up 3.4% - New Energy Vehicles: - Retail sales of new energy vehicles grew 4.2% year-on-year in November 2025, but growth rate slowed [2][3][6] Real Estate Chain - Steel: - Rebar prices down 1.3% and futures down 3.1% - Daily crude steel production down 6.5% month-on-month - Building Materials: - Cement price index up 0.1%, while glass prices down 2.5% [2][3][6] Consumption - Pork: - Average price of live pigs up 2.5%, while wholesale pork price down 1.0% - Baijiu: - Wholesale price index up 0.02%, but prices for premium brands like Moutai down significantly [2][3][6] Cyclical Industries - Non-ferrous Metals: - LME copper down 1.0%, aluminum down 0.9%, while zinc up 1.3% - Oil: - Brent crude oil futures down 4.1% to $61.22 per barrel - Coal: - Prices for thermal coal down 5.1% due to increased supply [2][3][6]

-纺织服装行业周报 20251214 相关研究 《Nike 调整架构以贴近市场,看好运动产 业链机会——纺织服装行业周报 20251207》 2025/12/07 《 本周重磅发布策略报告,挖掘新消费、 看好全球制造——纺织服装行业周报 20251123》 2025/11/23 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 求佳峰 A0230523060001 qiujf@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 册 深夜市 纺织服员饰 游戏人分点 2025 年 12 月 14 日 寒潮催化下看好波司登，Nike 修复看好运动制造 朱本伦 A0230125090001 zhubl@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱本伦 A0230125090001 zhubl@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 本期投资提示: 行业点评 1. 本周纺织服饰板块弱于市场 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本周纺织服饰板块表现弱于市场。12 月 8 日～12 月 12 日 ...

2025 年 12 月 14 日 A 股估值及行业中观景气跟 行业比较周跟踪（20251206-20251212） 本期投资提示: 相关研究 证券分析师 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 一、Ａ 股本周估值（截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日) ● 1) 指数及板块估值比较: 中证全指（剔除 ST） PE 为 21 倍，PB 为 1.8 倍，处于历史 77%和 39%分位; √ √ 上证 50 PE 为 11.7 倍，PB 为 1.3 倍，处于历史 62%和 40%分位; √ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [6][20]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic judgment for the chemical industry indicates a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic improvement, with Brent oil prices expected to remain in the range of $55-70 per barrel [6][7]. - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to combat "involution" in competition, which is expected to benefit the chemical industry through optimized capacity and improved profitability [6][7]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the refrigerant market, with specific quotas set for 2026, and suggests focusing on companies like Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Dongyangguang [6][7]. - The commercial aerospace sector is anticipated to enter a golden age, driven by the rapid deployment of low-orbit satellite constellations, with a projected market size of 60 billion yuan for ceramic shells [6][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Oil supply is constrained due to OPEC+ production delays, while demand is stabilizing, leading to a forecast of sustained low oil prices [7]. - Coal prices are expected to stabilize at a low level, and natural gas costs may decrease as the U.S. accelerates export facility construction [6][7]. Chemical Sector Configuration - The report suggests a diversified investment approach across various chains, including textiles, agriculture, and export-related chemicals, benefiting from the "involution" policy [6][20]. - Key materials for growth are identified, including semiconductor materials and OLED panel materials, with specific companies highlighted for investment [6][20]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides a detailed valuation table for key companies in the chemical sector, indicating their market capitalization and projected earnings [20][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [2]. Core Insights - Three major institutions have raised their oil demand forecasts, with the EIA predicting a global crude oil surplus of 2.24 million barrels per day for the current year [4][17]. - The EIA has kept its 2025-2026 crude oil price forecasts unchanged at $69 and $55 per barrel, respectively, while raising its natural gas price forecasts for the same years [5][11]. - The report highlights a tightening supply-demand balance in the downstream polyester sector, with expectations of improved market conditions [19]. Summary by Sections Demand Forecasts - IEA expects global oil demand to increase by 830,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 860,000 barrels per day in 2026, driven by positive macroeconomic and trade outlooks [11][12]. - OPEC forecasts a demand growth of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026 [12][58]. - EIA anticipates a rise in global oil and other liquid fuel consumption by 1.14 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.23 million barrels per day in 2026 [12][17]. Supply Forecasts - EIA has raised its global oil supply forecast for the current year by 200,000 barrels per day, while IEA has lowered its forecast by 100,000 barrels per day [14][17]. - EIA projects a global oil production increase of 3.01 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.25 million barrels per day in 2026 [15][17]. - OPEC anticipates a growth in non-OPEC oil supply of 1 million barrels per day in 2025, primarily from the U.S., Brazil, Canada, and Argentina [58]. Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices have decreased, with the latest closing price at $61.12 per barrel, reflecting a 4.13% week-on-week decline [27]. - The report notes a slight increase in U.S. oil rig counts, with 548 rigs reported as of December 12, 2025 [40]. Downstream Sector - The report indicates an improvement in refining margins, with the Singapore refining margin rising to $19.82 per barrel [4]. - Polyester sector profitability is mixed, with PTA prices declining while polyester filament prices are on the rise [19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [19][22]. - It also suggests focusing on high-dividend yield companies like China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [22].

2025 年 12 月 14 日 减国债利差表现分化，下周发行降 速 ——地方债周度跟踪 20251212 相关研究 《今年 2 万亿置换隐债专项债已全 部发行完毕——地方债周度跟踪 20251205》 2025/12/07 《发行提速但下周再降速，5000 亿 结存限额发行或已过半 ——地方 债周度跟踪 20251128》 2025/11/30 《减国债利差皆收窄，下周发行明 显提速——地方债周度跟踪 20251121》 2025/11/23 《新增债发行提速，减国债利差表 现分化——地方债周度跟踪 20251114》 2025/11/16 《7Y 以上地方债减国债利差收窄， 下周发行明显提速——地方债周度 跟踪 20251107》 2025/11/10 《地方债，正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 债 券 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请 ...