Core Insights - The report highlights the phenomenon of "AI-driven price spillover," indicating that demand for AI hardware is leading to price increases in various industries, with traditional capacities being squeezed and driving supply-demand turning points earlier than expected [1][6][7] - The report summarizes the basic rules of the "high prosperity spillover" market since September 2025, emphasizing that while the fundamental elasticity may not be as strong as the high prosperity itself, there can still be elasticities in spillover markets [1][22] - It identifies specific sectors in the A-share market that are experiencing AI price spillover, recommending attention to fiberglass and optical fiber due to their favorable valuations and visible price increases [1][26][31] Summary by Sections AI Price Spillover - AI hardware demand is experiencing high prosperity, leading to traditional industries facing supply constraints and price increases [1][6] - The spillover market can yield returns from two sources: performance improvements from supply being squeezed and valuation recovery from previously low historical levels [1][22] - The report notes that the success rate of such markets is not very high, suggesting the need for additional alpha logic, such as companies with strong pricing power or potential entry into high prosperity sectors [1][25] Industry Analysis - **Fiberglass**: Driven by AI computing demand, special fabrics are experiencing high prosperity, with traditional fiberglass showing a confirmed bottom in asset turnover and manageable downside risks [1][26][28] - **Optical Fiber**: The industry has confirmed a bottom in the operating cycle, with traditional capacity being squeezed and a clear upward option due to high-profit products entering the market [1][31][32] - **Niche Storage**: Benefiting from AI price spillover, with supply shortages driving price increases, although mid-term performance may be limited [1][11][37] - **Wafer Foundry**: The exit of overseas leaders from 8-inch plants is expected to benefit domestic foundries, with short-term price increases anticipated [1][37] - **Power Semiconductors**: AI-driven demand is strong, but the uncertainty in fundamental recovery may limit the potential for similar market performance as seen in lithium batteries [1][40] - **CPU**: The supply of CPUs is tight due to AI chip demand, but the corresponding A-share market shows limited fundamental realization [1][43]

宏 观 研 究 政策月报 2026 年 02 月 11 日 积极因素正在累积 —— 1 月政策跟踪观察 开年以来，地产、消费、投资均有积极变化。部委间财政金融政策如何协同发力扩内需、撑民 企？地方政府如何抢抓"最长春节"红利？本文结合部委及地方政策动态深入分析，可供参考。 一、地产最艰难的时段或已过去，供需拖累均有所放缓 地产部分供需数据已呈现边际修复态势，最艰难的时段或已逐步过去。从成交与土地市场数据 来看，供需端同步显现改善迹象，核心指标降幅小幅收窄。节前 3-4 周，全国代表城市二手房 成交面积同比降幅收窄超 5 个百分点至-14.7%。供给端，2025 年 12 月政府性基金收入降幅收 窄至-11.7%；土地出让收入同比-22.9%，较 11 月收窄 3.9 个百分点。 政策层面，多维度支持政策持续发力、协同发力，着力稳定房地产市场运行。房企监管重点更 聚焦于风险处置与民生保障，形成差异化、精准化的监管导向。媒体报道指出，目前多家房企 已不再被监管部门要求每月上报"三道红线"相关指标；部分出险房企需向总部所在城市专项 工作组定期汇报资产负债率等核心财务指标，同时还需上报经营恢复进展、债务化解情况等。 ...

货币政策执行报告 2026 年 02 月 11 日 聚焦内需，聚力开局 ——2025 年四季度货币政策执行报告解读 事件：2026 年 2 月 10 日，央行发布 2025 年四季度货币政策执行报告（以下简称《报告》）。 经济形势分析：外部通胀走势和货币政策调整存在不确定性；要支持"十五五"实现良好开局 外部形势判断上，《报告》突出强调"外部环境变化影响加深"，新增"通胀走势与货币政策 调整存在不确定性"表述，体现央行对四季度以来国际环境复杂性的担忧加剧。相较三季度报 告"外部不稳定不确定性因素较多，国际经济贸易秩序遇到严峻挑战"的表述，四季度报告更 聚焦贸易秩序变化对全球通胀及货币政策的深层影响。 国内经济形势评估上，《报告》更侧重内需，提出"把做强国内大循环摆到更加突出的位置"， 新增"支持'十五五'实现良好开局"，凸显政策层对经济开局的重视。《报告》同时强调着 力扩大内需、巩固经济稳中向好势头，并重申疏通政策传导、保持银行体系自身健康性。 政策基调：继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具。 货币政策基调上，《报告》延续"适度宽松的货币政策"，重申对物价的重视与"灵活高效运 用降 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong growth potential of Luckin Coffee, projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% for net profit from 2025 to 2027, driven by an increase in store count and market penetration [9][11] - The report also emphasizes the strategic positioning of Juchip Technology in the low-power AIoT chip design sector, with expectations of significant revenue growth and a favorable valuation compared to peers [3][12] - The oil and petrochemical industry is anticipated to experience a decline in oil prices, impacting upstream performance while downstream sectors may see a mixed outlook, with polyester margins expected to improve by Q4 2025 [13][14] Luckin Coffee Analysis - Luckin Coffee, established in 2017, utilizes a new retail model leveraging mobile internet and big data to provide high-quality coffee at competitive prices, achieving a market share of approximately 21.8% in China's fresh coffee sector by 2023 [9][10] - The company has a robust R&D system with 85 employees, continuously innovating and winning multiple international awards, including the IIAC International Coffee Tasting Competition [10] - The marketing strategy focuses on a youthful image and efficient private domain operations, resulting in a record of over 1 billion transactions by 2024 [10][11] - The store count reached 29,214 by Q3 2025, with a mix of direct and franchise models tailored to different market segments [10][11] - The target price for Luckin Coffee is set at $49, based on a 2026 PE valuation of 19 times, reflecting a discount compared to competitors like Starbucks [11] Juchip Technology Insights - Juchip Technology is recognized as a leading low-power AIoT chip designer, expanding its offerings from mid-to-high-end audio to edge AI applications [3][12] - The company has developed a proprietary protocol stack that enhances wireless audio capabilities, demonstrating its competitive edge in high-interference environments [3][12] - Revenue projections for Juchip Technology indicate a net profit of 2.04 billion, 2.89 billion, and 3.77 billion from 2025 to 2027, with a target PE of 38 times, suggesting a 21% upside potential [3][12] Oil and Petrochemical Industry Overview - The report forecasts a decrease in crude oil prices, with Brent crude expected to average $63.1 per barrel in Q4 2025, reflecting a 7.4% decline from the previous quarter [13][14] - Price differentials for various petrochemical products are expected to widen, with certain margins improving while others face compression [13][14] - Key companies in the sector are projected to experience varied performance, with some like China National Offshore Oil Corporation expected to see profit growth, while others like China Petroleum may face significant declines [13][14] - Investment recommendations include focusing on high-quality polyester companies and major refining firms, anticipating improved competitiveness due to cost reductions and market dynamics [13][14]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the automotive industry, particularly highlighting the potential for companies like Silver Wheel and new energy vehicle manufacturers to outperform the market [11]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the growth potential driven by AI energy demand, particularly in North America, which is expected to lead to significant market value increases for companies involved in power generation and related technologies [1][3]. - The report notes that the demand for gas generator sets is expected to rise due to the explosive growth of the AI industry, leading to a high-growth cycle in the generator industry [1][3]. - Companies like Xpeng and Leap Motor are highlighted for their sales performance and product innovations, with Xpeng's new models expected to contribute significantly to future profits [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Silver Wheel - The report identifies Silver Wheel as a key supplier to Caterpillar, benefiting from the latter's growth in the generator business, which saw a revenue increase of 44% year-on-year in Q4 2025 [3]. - Silver Wheel's established relationship with Caterpillar and its specialized manufacturing capabilities in North America position it well to capitalize on the growing demand for backup and emergency power solutions [3]. Xpeng Motors - Xpeng's January sales reached 20,011 units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 34% and a month-on-month decline of 46%, primarily due to industry-wide challenges and subsidy reductions [4]. - The upcoming launch of the Xpeng GX, an AI luxury SUV, is expected to enhance the company's market position and profitability, with a focus on family users and advanced driving capabilities [4]. Leap Motor - Leap Motor's January sales totaled 32,059 units, with a significant decline attributed to subsidy reductions, yet the company remains on track to achieve its annual sales target of 1 million units [5][6]. - The D series and A series models are expected to be key drivers of sales and profitability, with the D19 model set to launch in April [5][6].

行 业 及 产 业 电力设备/ 光伏设备 2026 年 02 月 10 日 爱旭股份与 Maxeon 达成专利许 研究支持 李冲 A0230524070001 lichong@swsresearch.com 联系人 李冲 A0230524070001 lichong@swsresearch.com 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 马天一 A0230525040004 maty@swsresearch.com 李冲 A0230524070001 lichong@swsresearch.com 行业点评 ⚫ 事件：爱旭股份与 Maxeon 达成"5 年期 16.5 亿元"的 BC 专利许可，核 心条款为爱旭与 Maxeon 签署 BC 电池与组件专利许可，期限五年、总额 16.5 亿元，许可区域为全球（美国除外），性质为非独家授权，双方同步 撤回相关未决诉讼。该许可协议将推动光伏"反内卷"路径从价格自律转向 知识产权法治化。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bos ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the electronic industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the sector, driven by AI computing and semiconductor localization trends [3][4]. Core Insights - The electronic industry is expected to leverage AI computing as a growth engine, with strong performance anticipated in PCB, storage, AI/GPU chips, and semiconductor equipment sectors [3][4]. - The semiconductor equipment and parts sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, particularly benefiting from domestic production [3][4]. - The storage sector is witnessing a significant increase in profitability due to the AI industry trend, with a notable rise in demand and prices for storage products [3][6]. - The AI server and chip sectors are seeing a surge in demand both domestically and internationally, particularly for cloud servers and high-speed switches [3][6]. - The PCB sector is expected to benefit from high-end AI PCB product demand, with companies like Shenghong Technology and Shenyin Electronics leading in performance [3][8]. Summary by Sections 2025 Industry Outlook - The electronic industry is projected to thrive with AI as the main driver and semiconductor localization as a catalyst, with strong performances expected across various sub-sectors [4][5]. - Specific forecasts for companies include: - Jiangfeng Electronics: Revenue of approximately 4.6 billion, net profit growth of 7.5% to 27.5% [5]. - ShenGong Co.: Revenue growth of 42.04% to 48.65%, net profit growth of 118.71% to 167.31% [5]. - Zhongwei Company: Revenue of 12.385 billion, net profit growth of 28.74% to 34.93% [5]. Semiconductor Storage Sector - The storage sector is benefiting from increased demand driven by AI, with prices stabilizing and then rising due to supply-demand imbalances [6][7]. - Key company forecasts include: - Jiangbolong: Expected net profit growth of 150.66% to 210.82% [7]. - Aibin Storage: Revenue growth of 49.36% to 79.23%, with net profit growth of 427.19% to 520.22% [7]. PCB Sector - The PCB sector is expected to continue benefiting from high-end AI product demand, with companies like Shenghong Technology and Shenyin Electronics showing strong performance [8][9]. - Forecasts for Shenghong Technology indicate a net profit increase of 260% to 295% [8].

行 业 及 产 业 非银金融 2026 年 02 月 10 日 预计 NBV 增速亮眼，市场波动阶 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 《高弹性标签助力板块"破圈"，看好资负 两端改善趋势——2026 年保险行业策略 报告》 2025/11/18 《资、负两端均表现亮眼，3Q25A 股险企 利润大增 68%——保险行业 2025 年三季 报业绩综述》 2025/11/05 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 联系人 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 看好 ——保险行业 2025 年年报前瞻 风险提示：长端利率下行、权益市场波动、大灾频发、监管政策影响超预期。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 预计 A 股险企 2025 年归母净利润 yoy+22.7%至 4264 亿元。4Q25 资本市场 阶段性波动叠加 2H2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry, indicating expectations for the sector to outperform the overall market [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth potential for Silver Wheel due to increased demand for gas power generation units driven by the booming AI industry in North America, which is leading to a surge in data center electricity demand [2][3]. - XPeng Motors experienced a decline in January sales, attributed to industry-wide factors and policy changes, but the launch of its new range-extended model is expected to enhance future performance [4]. - Leap Motor's sales also saw a decrease, primarily due to subsidy reductions, yet the company remains optimistic about achieving its annual sales target of 1 million units [5][6]. Summary by Sections Silver Wheel - The company is poised for market value growth due to new gas power generation unit demand, driven by the AI industry's expansion and increased electricity needs in data centers [2][3]. - Caterpillar's generator business has become its fastest-growing segment, with a reported revenue increase of 44% year-over-year in Q4 2025, indicating strong market demand [3]. - Silver Wheel's established partnership with Caterpillar positions it well to benefit from the latter's capacity expansion and product needs [3]. XPeng Motors - XPeng's January sales reached 20,011 units, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 34% and a month-over-month decline of 46% [4]. - The decline is linked to broader industry trends and the impact of subsidy reductions, but the company’s new model, the XPeng GX, is expected to drive future sales and profitability [4]. - The GX model features advanced technology and is positioned to address consumer concerns about range anxiety, enhancing its competitive edge [4]. Leap Motor - Leap Motor's January sales totaled 32,059 units, with a significant month-over-month decline, yet it remains within the industry average [5][6]. - The sales drop is primarily due to subsidy cuts, but the company is focused on its D and A series models to support sales growth [5]. - Despite concerns regarding partnerships, the collaboration with Stellantis is expected to continue, potentially enhancing Leap Motor's market position [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [2][3] Core Insights - The report highlights an upward trend in the dye, PVA, and vitamin sectors, with price increases expected post-holiday. It emphasizes the importance of positioning in the spring chemical sector [2][3] - Oil prices are expected to remain in a relatively loose range, supported by a stronger bottom, with Brent crude projected between $55-70 per barrel. Coal prices are stabilizing, and natural gas costs are anticipated to decline due to increased export facilities in the U.S. [2][3] - The report suggests focusing on specific sectors such as textiles, agriculture, exports, and beneficiaries of "anti-involution" policies for investment opportunities [2][3] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic judgment indicates that oil supply is slowing due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output. Demand is stabilizing with global economic improvements, leading to a forecast of stable oil demand [3][4] - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery phase, with PPI showing a slight increase and manufacturing PMI at 49.3%, indicating some volatility in manufacturing operations [4] Investment Analysis - The report recommends investments in the textile chain, agricultural chain, export chain, and sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies. Specific companies to watch include: - Textiles: Lu Xi Chemical, Tongkun Co., Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical - Agriculture: Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy, Yuntianhua, Xingfa Group - Exports: Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Wanhu Chemical, and others [2][3] - Key materials for growth include semiconductor materials, panel materials, and biobased materials, with specific companies highlighted for each category [2][3] Key Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies, indicating their market capitalization and projected earnings for 2024-2027, with recommendations for "Increase" or "Buy" ratings for several firms [15][16]