行 业 及 产 业 美容护理 2025 年 12 月 14 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 王盼 A0230523120001 wangpan@swsresearch.com 聂霜 A0230524120002 nieshuang@swsresearch.com 联系人 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 11 月化妆品淘系略承压，胶原医美赛道再添两员 看好 ——化妆品医美行业周报 20251214 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 - ⚫ 本周化妆品医美板块表现弱于市场。2025 年 12 月 5 日至 2025 年 12 月 12 日期间， 申万美容护理指数下滑 1.6%，表现弱于市场。其中，申万化妆品指数下滑 1.2%，弱于 申万 A 指 1.4pct；申万个护用品指数下滑 ...

2025 年 12 月 14 日 市值配售改革受关注，原力数字等 三新股过会 ——北交所策略周报（20251208-20251214） 本周策略观点： 本周市场行情： 北交所新股： 新三板动态： 相关研究 - 证 券 研 究 报 告 刘靖 A0230512070005 liujing@swsresearch.com 王雨晴 A0230522010003 wangyq@swsresearch.com 郑菁华 A0230525060001 zhengjh@swsresearch.com 汪秉涵 A0230525090003 研究支持 吕靖华 A0230124070002 lvjh@swsresearch.com 联系人 汪秉涵 A0230525090003 wangbh@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 新 三 板 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 专 题 研 究 证券分析师 wangbh@swsresearch.com ⚫ 本周北证 50 上涨 2.79%，成交额环比上升 40.57%。1）本周北交所情绪明显回暖，天 力复合连续两天涨停，北证市场成 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the internet sector, particularly in AI applications and consumer engagement [3][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights the competition for consumer-facing AI interfaces, with significant developments from ByteDance and Alibaba. ByteDance's upcoming conference will focus on the performance and pricing of its Doubao model, while Alibaba has restructured its C-end business group to enhance its AI capabilities [3]. - The report recommends investing in Giant Network and 37 Interactive Entertainment due to their strong growth potential in the gaming sector, particularly targeting young female consumers [3]. - The advertising sector, particularly Focus Media, is noted for its ongoing mergers and high dividend support, with expectations of continued investment from internet companies [3]. Summary by Sections AI Competition - ByteDance is focusing on the Doubao model's performance and pricing, with its AI mobile phone already integrated into various services. However, challenges remain regarding privacy and competition with super apps [3]. - Alibaba's new C-end business group aims to develop its Qianwen app into a super app and expand its AI assistant capabilities across multiple platforms [3]. Gaming Sector - Giant Network is expected to see significant growth with its upcoming game "Supernatural Action," while 37 Interactive Entertainment is entering a profit recovery phase with a projected net profit of 3.21 billion yuan for 2025 [3]. - The report emphasizes the potential of the young female gaming market and the undervaluation of companies with strong daily active user products [3]. Advertising Sector - Focus Media's merger with New Wave is progressing, expected to enhance its bargaining power within the industry. The company is also benefiting from increased investment in local life services and AI applications [3]. - The report notes that despite macroeconomic challenges, Focus Media has shown strong operational efficiency and profitability [3]. Valuation Overview - A detailed valuation table is provided, showcasing key companies in the gaming and entertainment sectors, including Tencent, Giant Network, and 37 Interactive Entertainment, with projected revenue and profit growth rates [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a favorable investment rating [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has led to a strong performance in metal prices, particularly in precious metals [5]. - It notes that the overall performance of the non-ferrous metals index has outperformed the broader market significantly in 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 79.60% [6][10]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued price increases in precious metals due to low central bank gold reserves in China and a shift in monetary policy [5]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.84% during the week [4]. - The non-ferrous metals index fell by 0.47%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.39 percentage points [6]. - Precious metals saw a weekly increase of 1.50%, while aluminum prices dropped by 4.72% [12]. Price Changes and Industry Analysis - Industrial metals prices showed mixed results, with copper prices down by 0.83% and aluminum prices down by 4.72% [5]. - The report indicates that the demand for copper remains strong, with a current social inventory of 163,000 tons, reflecting a slight increase [34]. - The report suggests that the supply-demand dynamics for aluminum are tightening, with a forecast for long-term price increases [5]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides valuations for key companies in the industry, such as Zijin Mining, which has a projected PE ratio of 16 for 2025 [22]. - Other notable companies include Shandong Gold and Huayou Cobalt, with respective PE ratios of 24 and 20 for 2025 [22]. - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery in state-owned enterprises within the steel sector, such as Hesteel and Shandong Steel [23].

宏 观 研 究 海外经济研究 2025 年 12 月 14 日 两个美国："K 型经济"的成因与出路 2025 年中以来，美国再现"无就业增长"与"K 型复苏"特征。2026 年，美国经济能否走出 "K 型"特征，路径是"无就业"拖累增长，还是高增长带动充分就业？ 一、热点思考：两个美国："K 型经济"的成因与出路 （一）美国经济的两个结构性失衡："无就业增长"与"K 型经济" 2025 年初以来，美国经济表现为"无就业增长"（jobless growth）。2025 年初特朗普开始 执政以来，美国新增非农就业人数开始下滑，2025 年 6-8 月月均下降至 1.8 万人低点，远低于 历史非衰退区间的平均水平。但在 AI 资本开支的支撑下，美国 GDP 增速仍保持较高水平。 2025 年中以来，美国经济再现"K 型经济"（K-shaped economy）特征。它具体表现为消 费、就业、工资和财富的"K 型"分化，如：高收入人群的消费增速显著高于低收入人群；高 端消费好于大众消费；高收入和低收入人群的工资和财富的"剪刀差"不断扩大等。 （二）"K 型经济"的成因：经济放缓、货币宽松、特朗普冲击与美股结构性牛市 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-banking financial sector, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the industry, suggesting it is expected to outperform the overall market in the coming months [66]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the central government's economic meetings have emphasized the need for structural reforms in the financial sector, aiming for a more efficient capital market and improved financial supply-side reforms [2][21]. - The insurance sector is expected to undergo a systematic revaluation, driven by the asset side's influence on company valuations, with a focus on sustainable business models and risk management [2][10]. - The brokerage sector is currently experiencing a mismatch between fundamentals and valuations, with potential catalysts including mergers and acquisitions and upcoming performance reports [2][5]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,580.95 with a slight decline of -0.08%, while the non-banking index rose by 0.81% to 1,991.97. The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial sectors reported respective changes of +0.31%, +2.36%, and -1.62% [5][6]. Non-Banking Industry Data - As of December 12, 2025, the average daily trading volume in the stock market was 18,247.40 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 14.23% from the previous month [15][44]. - The financing balance in the margin trading market reached 25,079.82 billion yuan, an increase of 34.5% compared to the end of 2024 [15][48]. Non-Banking Industry News - The central bank reported that in the first eleven months of 2025, RMB loans increased by 15.36 trillion yuan, and the total social financing scale reached 33.39 trillion yuan, exceeding last year's total [16]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is set to introduce new regulations on public fund sales to address long-standing issues in the industry [17]. Individual Stock Highlights - China Life Insurance reported total premiums exceeding 700 billion yuan as of November 30, 2025 [29]. - The brokerage sector saw significant stock performance, with Guotai Junan and CITIC Securities leading in gains [7][12].

行 业 及 产 业 非银金融 头部非银机构监管红利有望释放 2025 年 12 月 14 日 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 看好 ——非银金融行业周报（2025/12/8-2025/12/12） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - ⚫ 券商：本周申万券商 II 指数收涨 0.31%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.39pct。1）中央政治局会议： 2025/12/8，中央政治局会议召开，分析研究 2026 年经济工作。会议指出明年经济工作要坚持 "稳中求进、提质增效"（2025 年表述为"稳中求进、以进促稳，守正创新、先立后破，系统集 成、协同配合"）。就证 ...

2025 年 12 月 14 日 防观/行业 相关研究 证券分析师 研究支持 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 经济工作会议定调,着力稳定房地产、积极稳妥化解风险 － 地产及物管行业周报（2025/12/6-2025/12/12） 本期投资提示: 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 地产行业数据：新房、二手房成交环比均回落，新房成交推盘比下降。上周(12.6-12.12)34 个重点 ● 城市新房合计成交 242.3 万平米，环比-12.3%，其中，一二线环比-12.9%，三四线环比-2.6%。12 月(12.1-12.12)34 城一手房成交同比-32%，较 11 月+4.3pct。其中，一二线同比-32%，三四线同比 -34.4%，分别较 11 月+2.9pct 和+18.9pct。上周 13 城二手房合计成交 111.4 万平米，环比-0.4%； 1 ...

建筑装饰 2025 年 12 月 14 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 推动投资止跌回稳，积极有序化解政府债务 看好 ——申万宏源建筑周报（20251208-20251212） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 南方基金 南方基金管理股份有限公司(reports@southernfund.com) 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 - ⚫ 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数-1.59%，沪深 300 指 数-0.08%，相对收益为-1.51pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为专业 工程（+0.73%）、基建央企（-1.86%）、基建国企（-2 ...

2025 年 12 月 14 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 经济工作会议定调，着力稳定房地产、积极稳妥化解风险 看好 —— 地产及物管行业周报（2025/12/6-2025/12/12） 本期投资提示： 房地产 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 - ⚫ 地产行业数据：新房、二手房成交环比均回落，新房成交推盘比下降。上周(12.6-12.12)34 个重点 城市新房合计成交 242.3 万平米，环比-12.3%，其中，一二线环比-12.9%，三四线环比-2.6%。12 月(12.1-12.12)34 城一手房成交同比-32%，较 11 月+ ...