4 May 2025 研究报告 Research Report 香港医疗 Hong Kong Health Care 医药行业周报（250428-0502），基本面主导上涨，外部政策影响逐渐改善 Weekly Report on the HK Stock Market Healthcare Industry: The rally is fundamentally driven, with external policy impacts gradually improving [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 股票名称 | 评级 | | 京东健康 | Outperform 康宁杰瑞 | Outperform | | 药明生物 | Outperform 固生堂 | Outperform | | 阿里健康 | Outperform 复宏汉霖 | Outperform | | 康方生物 | Outperform 诺辉健康-B | Outperform | | 中国生物制药 ...

[Table_Title] Research Report 2 May 2025 壳牌 (SHEL US) 主要由上游业务带动的良好业绩增长；持续回购 Scott Darling Catherine Li scott.darling@htisec.com catherine.dy.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] Flash Analysis [（本报告为 Table_summary] 2025 年 5 月 1 日发布的英文报告的翻译版。） 要闻回顾以及最新动态 我们预计壳牌（HTI 未覆盖）的 25 年第一季度业绩的市场反应为积极 ，该公司报告的调整后净收入为 55.77 亿美 元，远高于共识，这主要得益于该公司除可再生能源以外的所有业务部门。该公司在最近的资本市场日上重申了 其 25 财年资本支出指南，即 200-220 亿美元。公司还宣布在 25 年第二季度实施 35 亿美元的回购计划。 点评 主要受上游业务推动，业绩大幅增长：壳牌公布的调整后净收入为 55.77 亿美元，而共识值为 49.63 亿美元，这主 要是受上游业务部门的推动。资本支出为 41.75 亿美元，约为 25 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Chart Industries, expecting a relative return exceeding 10% over the next 12-18 months [12]. Core Insights - Chart Industries reported slightly better-than-expected earnings for Q1 2025, driven by strong performance in specialty products and a solid backlog of orders, which reached a record high of $5.14 billion [2][3]. - The company reaffirmed its guidance for FY 2025, projecting revenues between $4.65 billion and $4.85 billion, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be between $1.175 billion and $1.225 billion [3]. - The company emphasized that the impact of tariffs is limited and can be offset by cost reductions, maintaining a positive outlook on liquefied natural gas contracts [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Adjusted net income for Q1 2025 was $84 million, slightly above the consensus estimate of $79 million, with revenues of $1.002 billion, close to the expected $1.01 billion [2]. - The adjusted EBITDA was $231 million, exceeding the consensus of $228 million, with a gross margin of 33.9%, aligning with the mid-point of the company's guidance [2][5]. Order Backlog - The backlog of orders reached a historic high of $5.14 billion, up from $4.85 billion in Q4 2024, with total orders for the quarter amounting to $1.32 billion [2][3]. Guidance Reaffirmation - The company reiterated its FY 2025 guidance, expecting adjusted earnings per share between $12 and $13, and free cash flow between $550 million and $600 million, compared to $388 million in FY 2024 [3]. - The net leverage ratio increased to 2.91 times, but the company remains confident in achieving its target leverage ratio of 2.0 to 2.5 times [3]. Mid-term Outlook - Chart Industries expects organic revenue growth to remain in the mid-teens, with gross margins maintaining in the mid-30% range and free cash flow conversion rates of 95%-100% [3].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the sector[5] - The decline in manufacturing PMI is primarily attributed to external shocks from trade friction, although domestic demand remains relatively stable[5] - New export orders index fell to 44.7%, down 4.3 percentage points, reflecting increased pressure on export-oriented industries due to trade uncertainties[15] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The services business activity index is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, indicating stability in the sector[22] - The construction business activity index is 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points, with civil engineering showing improvement at 60.9%[26] - Seasonal factors, such as the upcoming "May Day" holiday, may lead to a rebound in the travel sector's activity[22] Group 3: Policy and Economic Outlook - The central government is accelerating the implementation of existing policies to boost domestic demand in response to external uncertainties[30] - Over 160 billion yuan has been allocated for consumption incentives, with an additional 140 billion yuan planned for future investments[30] - The focus on enhancing domestic consumption and effective investment is expected to support economic recovery in the second quarter[30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on Clearway Energy, indicating strong performance and reaffirming its guidance for cash available for distribution (CAFD) [1][2]. Core Insights - Clearway Energy reported adjusted net income exceeding consensus expectations, with adjusted EBITDA of $252 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of $237 million. The company reaffirmed its CAFD guidance for fiscal year 2025 at $400 million to $440 million, with a long-term target of 5%-8%+ growth in CAFD per share post-2027 [1][2][3]. - The company is on track with its capacity expansion plans, maintaining guidance for 1.1 GW of commercial operation date (COD) capacity for fiscal year 2025 and 2.3 GW for fiscal years 2026-2027. All domestic equipment is in place, and funding for key projects has been secured [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Clearway Energy recorded revenue of $298 million for Q1 2025, aligning closely with consensus expectations. The company achieved a net income of $4 million, contrasting with a consensus loss of $30 million. The adjusted EBITDA margin was reported at 85% [2][4]. CAFD Guidance - The company reaffirmed its CAFD guidance for fiscal year 2025 at $400 million to $440 million, with a target of $2.40 to $2.60 per share by 2027, indicating no need for external equity financing to achieve this midpoint [2][3]. Capacity Expansion - Clearway Energy confirmed its capacity expansion plans, with 1.1 GW of COD capacity for fiscal year 2025 and ongoing progress on projects such as Rosamond South Phase I and Dan's Mountain. The company has also completed the acquisition of the Tuolumne project and signed a power purchase agreement for a 100 MW solar project in California [3].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the aerospace and defense sectors, recommending a focus on high-performance structural component manufacturers and defense contractors due to increased defense spending and recovery in the aerospace industry [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of tariffs on technology giants' capital expenditure plans, particularly in data centers, while also noting a strategic adjustment may be necessary [2][17]. - The industrial sector shows stable price indices for aircraft engines and components, with a slight increase in prices year-on-year [3][23]. - The energy sector is experiencing fluctuations in electricity prices, with a significant rise in capacity prices in the MISO region due to reduced supply [4][19]. - The robotics industry saw a slight decline in installations in 2023, but the long-term growth trend remains intact, with expectations for increased demand driven by automation needs [2][35]. Summary by Sections Global Market Review - The US stock market has shown a steady upward trend, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average continuing to rise, indicating positive market sentiment [9][11]. Infrastructure - **Data Centers**: Major tech companies reaffirmed their capital expenditure plans despite tariff pressures, with significant investments planned for data center capacity [17]. - **Energy Construction**: MISO's summer capacity prices surged to $666.50 per megawatt day due to reduced surplus capacity, highlighting the need for increased capacity [19][20]. - **Aerospace**: Boeing faces challenges due to tariffs affecting aircraft deliveries to China, impacting its global supply chain [21][22]. Industrial Equipment - The industrial equipment price index remains stable, with slight increases noted in specific sectors such as gas turbines and transformers [39][53]. Global Energy - The energy market is experiencing price fluctuations, with natural gas prices declining due to trade tensions and supply-demand dynamics [4][19]. Key Company Insights - Companies like Howmet Aerospace and Raytheon Technologies are positioned to benefit from increased defense spending and aerospace recovery [5][6]. - ABB is highlighted for its potential growth due to rising demand for industrial robots as manufacturing returns to the US [6][35].

[Table_Title] Research Report 1 May 2025 道达尔能源 (TTE FP) 盈利能力和股息稳健；持续回购 Scott Darling Catherine Li scott.darling@htisec.com catherine.dy.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] Flash Analysis [事件Table_summary] 道达尔能源（海通国际未覆盖该公司）2025 年第一季度调整后净收入为 41.92 亿美元，尽管其略低于市场共识预 期，受电力、炼油/化工和营销部门业绩影响，但息税折旧摊销前利润超出预期，我们预计市场将普遍对其第一季 度业绩持积极态度。该公司宣布第一期中期股息为每股 0.85 欧元，同比增长 7.6%。公司还重申了 2025 财年资本支 出指引在 170 - 175 亿美元左右，以及每季度 20 亿美元的股票回购计划。 点评 EBITDA 超出预期，但净利润略低于预期：道达尔能源公布的调整后净收入为 41.92 亿美元，而市场共识预期为 43.89 亿美元，这是由于油价下跌和炼油利润率下降影响了其下游部门。净现金流为 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates that Alibaba's Qwen currently ranks at the top of the open-source model rankings, with expectations for continued leadership in model capability and ecosystem monetization [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a surge in domestic open-source models, with significant releases from Alibaba, Xiaomi, and DeepSeek, showcasing advancements in large language models (LLMs) [1][8]. - Alibaba's Qwen-3 series demonstrates substantial performance improvements, achieving 10-30% accuracy gains on various benchmarks and enhancing inference speed by 20-40% [9][12]. - Xiaomi's MiMo model, with 7 billion parameters, excels in reasoning and code generation tasks, outperforming larger proprietary models through innovative training strategies [10][12]. - DeepSeek's Prover-V2-671B model shows strong performance in formal logic reasoning, indicating a strategic focus on specialized AI applications [11][12]. - The report anticipates that as more domestic models are released, the industry may face challenges related to homogenization and competition, pushing for more customized solutions in vertical industries [5]. Summary by Sections Alibaba Qwen-3 - The Qwen-3 series includes models ranging from 1.5 billion to 72 billion parameters, designed for various inference needs, with notable performance enhancements over previous generations [9]. - Deployment costs are significantly lower, requiring only 4 H20 GPUs for full-capacity operation, which is advantageous compared to similar models from OpenAI and Grok [2][12]. Xiaomi MiMo - MiMo's training involved 25 trillion tokens and innovative mechanisms to improve training efficiency, achieving a 2.29x increase in training speed and a 1.96x acceleration in verification processes [10]. DeepSeek-Prover-V2-671B - This model excels in mathematical theorem proving, particularly in formal logic, and serves as a precursor to DeepSeek's upcoming models, reflecting the company's commitment to advancing AI capabilities [11]. Industry Trends - The report suggests that the next phase for open-source models will involve customization based on user data and feedback, aiming to establish long-term barriers and user loyalty in specific industries [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of 10.14 RMB, based on a 13x PE for 2025 [4][9]. Core Insights - The company's revenue from fatty alcohol (acid) series is expected to grow significantly in 2024, with projected revenue of 9.15 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.32%. However, net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decrease to 1.01 billion RMB, down 14.57% year-on-year [5][9]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.36 billion RMB, up 12.85% year-on-year, and a net profit of 276 million RMB, up 30.95% year-on-year [5][9]. - The company is launching a high-performance synthetic rubber project, leveraging its advantages in raw materials and facilities within the new materials chemical park, aiming to enhance cost control and operational safety [5][10]. Financial Summary - The financial summary indicates a decline in net profit from 1,180 million RMB in 2023 to 1,008 million RMB in 2024, with a gradual recovery projected in subsequent years [3][6]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is adjusted to 0.78 RMB, with further increases to 0.85 RMB in 2026 and 0.92 RMB in 2027 [5][9]. - The net asset return rate is projected to stabilize around 10% over the next few years, with a slight increase expected by 2027 [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for Boeing but suggests limited impact from the delivery halt and potential for reallocation of aircraft [8][9]. Core Insights - The Chinese market's contribution to Boeing's annual aircraft deliveries has significantly declined from an average of 24% (2010-2019) to approximately 6% for 2025 planned deliveries, with a long-term projection of about 4% by 2030 [9][10]. - The estimated revenue impact from the 29 aircraft affected by the delivery halt is approximately USD 35.3 billion, which is a relatively small proportion of Boeing's total annual revenue [9][10]. - Boeing's ability to reallocate affected aircraft to other markets, particularly in regions with strong demand like India and Southeast Asia, is crucial for mitigating risks associated with the delivery halt [10][11]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - China has halted the delivery of Boeing aircraft and related parts as a response to ongoing trade tensions, but the financial impact is expected to be limited and manageable [7][8]. Impact Quantification - The contribution of the Chinese market to Boeing's deliveries has decreased significantly, with current estimates showing it accounts for about 6% of the 2025 planned deliveries [9]. - The revenue impact from the halted deliveries is estimated at USD 35.3 billion, which is not expected to significantly affect Boeing's overall revenue [9][10]. Aircraft Reallocation Feasibility - Boeing's capacity to reallocate affected aircraft to other customers is seen as a key factor in managing risks, with strong demand in markets like India providing alternative sales channels [10][11]. Supply Chain Considerations - Boeing's supply chain is more diversified compared to competitors, but there are still potential risks related to lower-tier components sourced from Chinese suppliers amid ongoing trade tensions [11].