Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for ZTO Express, with a target price of USD 25.89, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of USD 16.51 [2][5]. Core Insights - ZTO Express reported stable profitability in 2024, with revenue of RMB 44.281 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, and a net profit of RMB 8.817 billion, up 0.8% [3][12]. - The company aims to focus on accelerating parcel volume growth in 2025, with guidance set at 20%-24% growth, following a decline in growth rate in 2024 [3][13]. - The average price per unit increased in 2024 due to an optimized customer structure, contributing to revenue growth [4][13]. - Transportation costs saw a significant decline in 2024, enhancing profitability despite rising sorting costs due to labor and automation expenses [4][10]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, ZTO Express achieved a gross margin of 31.0%, with a net profit margin of 22.8% [10]. - The company expects adjusted net income to ordinary equity of RMB 10.126 billion in 2025, with projected EPS of RMB 12.08 [5][14]. - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at RMB 49.605 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 12% [10]. Market Position and Strategy - ZTO Express completed a parcel volume of 34 billion in 2024, holding a market share of 19.4%, which is a slight decline from the previous year [3][4]. - The company plans to enhance its market share and operational efficiency in 2025, focusing on volume growth over pricing strategies [5][13].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 9 Apr 2025 国际工业+能源 Global Industrials + Energy 美国工业回流对工业机器人需求的边际拉升效应 The Marginal Effect of U.S. Reshoring to Industrial Robot Demand 杨斌 Bin Yang 毛琼佩 Olivia Mao bin.yang@htisec.com olivia.qp.mao@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [(Table_summary] Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 核心观点： 特朗普政府欲回流工业制造，劳动力短缺是掣肘。特朗普政府通过一系列政策希望工业回流至美国本土，壮大本土 制造能力，同时其又对外国人工推出了更严格政策，导致已经出现劳动力短缺的制造业问题更显著。从数据上看， 美国 25 年 2 月职位空缺约 756.8 万人高于 710 万人左右的失业人数，劳动力市场结构性供给不足和严格移民政策影 响工业回流 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China XLX Fertiliser with a target price of HK$5.18, based on a current price of HK$3.99 [1][8]. Core Insights - In 2024, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 22.96% year-on-year, driven by significant investment income from the sale of a subsidiary [5][6]. - The company achieved a revenue of 23.129 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 1.48% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 3.931 billion yuan, down 6.12% [5][6]. - The board proposed a dividend policy for 2025-2027 with a distribution ratio of at least 25% of audited net profit attributable to shareholders, and a minimum dividend of 0.24 yuan per share [5][6]. Revenue Breakdown - The fertilizer segment accounted for 58% of total revenue, while the chemical segment contributed 37% in 2024 [6][7]. - Urea revenue increased by 6.3% year-on-year to 7.306 billion yuan, with a sales volume growth of 29% [6][7]. - Compound fertilizers saw a revenue decrease of 2% to 5.994 billion yuan, with a slight sales volume decline of 0.3% [6][7]. - Methanol revenue grew by 14.5% year-on-year to 2.678 billion yuan, with a sales volume increase of 16% [6][7]. Ongoing Projects - The company is progressing with ongoing projects, including a 60,000-tonne polyformaldehyde project and a 300,000-tonne compound fertilizer project, both expected to enhance market presence [7][8]. - Future projects include a 920,000-tonne compound fertilizer and 160,000-tonne melamine facility, expected to start production in early 2027 [7][8]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 shows a projected net profit of 1.153 billion yuan in 2025, down 29.95%, followed by 1.611 billion yuan in 2026 and 2.142 billion yuan in 2027 [8][6]. - The target price is set at HK$5.18, based on a PE ratio of 5.3 times for 2025 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an OUTPERFORM rating for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group with a target price of HKD 5.97, indicating an expected upside from the current price of HKD 4.89 [2]. Core Insights - In FY24, the company achieved revenue of CNY 29.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, with finished drug revenue declining by 7.4% to CNY 23.74 billion due to volume-based procurement (VBP) impacts [3][12]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) was reported at 70.0%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 26.3% to CNY 4.33 billion [3][12]. - The company is expected to see incremental revenue from innovative drug products exceeding CNY 1.5 billion in FY25, despite challenges in the oncology segment due to price cuts from VBP [4][13]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY24 was CNY 29.01 billion, with a breakdown showing finished drug sales at CNY 23.74 billion and API and functional food sales at CNY 5.27 billion [3][12]. - R&D expenses increased by 7.5% year-on-year to CNY 5.19 billion, representing 17.9% of total revenue [3][12]. - The company anticipates revenue growth in FY25, with total revenue projected at CNY 31.4 billion, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year increase [7][17]. Segment Performance - The nervous system segment showed steady growth with sales reaching CNY 9.6 billion, a 6.1% increase year-on-year, driven by the performance of NBP [4][19]. - The oncology segment experienced a significant decline, with sales dropping to CNY 4.4 billion, a decrease of 28.3% year-on-year, primarily due to VBP impacts [4][19]. - The anti-infectives segment reported sales of CNY 4.1 billion, down 3.5% year-on-year, while the cardiovascular segment saw a decline of 14.8% to CNY 2.1 billion [4][19]. Licensing and Future Prospects - CSPC initiated a Phase III clinical trial for SYS6010 (EGFR ADC) in March 2025, with expectations for multiple out-licensing deals in 2025 [6][15]. - The company out-licensed ROR1 ADC to Radiance Biopharma, receiving an upfront payment of USD 15 million, with potential milestone payments of up to USD 1.2 billion [6][16]. - Licensing revenue is anticipated to become a recurring income stream for CSPC as it continues to expand its product offerings [6][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Morimatsu International Holdings with a target price of HKD 6.96, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of HKD 4.67 [2][20]. Core Insights - The company's FY24 revenue was CNY 6.95 billion, a decrease of 5.6% year-on-year, primarily due to delays in project execution. However, the gross profit margin improved to 29.5%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to better operational efficiency and material cost control [3][4][16]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 737 million, down 12.7% year-on-year, mainly impacted by accounts receivable impairment [17][20]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from Mainland China was CNY 2.75 billion, down 29.2% year-on-year, while overseas revenue reached CNY 4.20 billion, an increase of 20.8% year-on-year. Notably, North America saw a significant growth of 60.2% year-on-year [3][16]. - By segment, the oil and gas sector generated CNY 630 million (-35.2% y-y), while the power battery segment reported CNY 1.22 billion (+6.5% y-y) [22]. Order Backlogs - As of the end of FY24, the company had a backlog of CNY 8.1 billion, down from CNY 8.8 billion in the first half of 2024. The pharmaceutical sector accounted for CNY 2.3 billion of this backlog [5][18]. - New orders for FY24 totaled CNY 6.0 billion, with a notable decline of 11.3% in the second half of the year [5][18]. Valuation Adjustments - Due to weak backlog growth, revenue forecasts for FY25 and FY26 have been revised down to CNY 7.77 billion and CNY 8.47 billion, respectively, indicating growth rates of 11.8% and 9.1% year-on-year [8][20]. - The net profit forecasts for FY25 and FY26 have also been adjusted to CNY 872 million and CNY 939 million, suggesting growth rates of 18.3% and 7.7% year-on-year [8][20].

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/纺织与服装 证券研究报告 美国新征关税影响纺织制造行业解读 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 行业周报 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资建议。品牌端：政策加码消费有望加速复苏，看好四条投资主线：①当前 业绩筑底，后市业绩反弹潜力较大的低估值标的，重点关注滔搏，新秀丽；② 具有逆市拓店规划，渠道精细化改革，或积极布局新渠道新业态，重点关注海 澜之家，富安娜，受益标的森马服饰；③全民健身、户外风潮延续，重点关注 运动户外景气赛道，重点关注安踏体育，李宁，特步国际，波司登；④低估值、 高股东回报率标的仍具吸引力，重点关注江南布衣。制造端：美国关税影响行 业整体，后续各主要出口国与美国沟通结果仍待观察，坐拥高端设计研发能力 与快速订单响应能力等竞争壁垒的制造商更能有效应对此次关税冲击，重点关 注华利集团，九兴控股，裕元集团，受益标的申洲国际。 美国关税挑战影响多国，关注海外终端有品牌溢价能力的品牌和竞争壁垒更高 的制造商。此次美国加征关税带来行业隐忧主要有：1）税负传导价格影响海 外品牌终端消费；2）制造订单不确定 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 2.13 billion in 2024, a decrease of 53.1%, primarily due to a reduction in licensing revenue, while commercial sales revenue increased by 24.9% to RMB 2.00 billion [3][16]. - The company has effectively managed costs, with a significant decline in expense ratios, leading to a narrowed operating net loss of RMB 660 million, down 16.7% year-over-year [4][18]. - The clinical pipeline is advancing steadily, with key programs such as Cadonilimab and Ivonescimab making progress in various clinical trials [5][19]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 3.41 billion, RMB 5.45 billion, and RMB 7.31 billion, reflecting year-over-year growth of 60% and 34% in subsequent years [11][34]. - The company is expected to turn a profit in 2025, achieving a net profit of RMB 50 million [11][34]. - The gross profit margin is projected to remain high, with estimates of 92.3% in 2025 and 92.9% in 2027 [15]. Clinical Pipeline Progress - Cadonilimab is involved in multiple clinical trials, including adjuvant treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma and combination therapies for non-small cell lung cancer [5][19]. - Ivonescimab is also progressing in various trials, including first-line treatments for biliary tract cancer and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma [20][23]. - The company has several NDA/sNDA approvals expected in 2025, which could significantly impact revenue and market position [9][25]. Cost Management - The company has demonstrated excellent cost management, with R&D expenses decreasing by 5.3% due to the transition of certain clinical research services to in-house execution [4][18]. - Selling expenses grew at a lower rate than commercial sales revenue, resulting in a decline in the selling expense ratio by 5.5 percentage points [4][18]. Valuation - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 96.6 per share based on a DCF model, reflecting a WACC of 10.0% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.0% [11][34].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to several companies including Xiaomi Group, Lenovo Group, BYD Electronics, and Hesai Technology, while Sunyu Optics and AAC Technologies are rated as "Neutral," and Xinyi International is rated as "Underperform" [1]. Core Insights - The report analyzes the impact of Trump's "Reciprocal Tariff" policy on the technology value chain, highlighting that the new tariffs impose a 10% minimum baseline tariff on imports from over 180 countries, with China facing an additional 34% tariff, leading to a total tariff of 54% [4][10]. - The tariffs are expected to create systemic shocks in the consumer electronics industry, particularly affecting pricing and profit margins, with companies like Apple likely to pass on costs to consumers, resulting in significant price increases for products like the iPhone [29][41]. - The report discusses the strategic responses of companies to mitigate the impact of tariffs, including supply chain adjustments and potential lobbying for tariff exemptions [38][39]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Comparison of Trump's Tariff Policies - Trump's first term saw approximately $370 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports, with rates ranging from 7.5% to 25%, aimed at reducing trade deficits and encouraging manufacturing to return to the U.S. [8]. - The second term's tariffs are more aggressive, with a broader scope and higher rates, significantly impacting the global trade landscape [14]. Section 2: Impact on the U.S. Market - The new tariffs are expected to increase costs across various sectors, particularly in cloud services and data center construction, with projected cost increases of 12-23% for data center projects due to higher material costs [16][22]. - The semiconductor industry faces challenges, with a heavy reliance on imports from Taiwan and South Korea, which are significantly affected by the tariffs [19][21]. Section 3: Impact on the Chinese Market - The report outlines China's strategic countermeasures, including tiered tariffs on U.S. energy and agricultural products, and export controls on strategic resources like rare earths [5][11]. - The tariffs are expected to exacerbate the trade tensions and impact various sectors, including renewable energy and textiles [5][11]. Section 4: Consumer Electronics Sector - The consumer electronics sector is projected to face significant profit margin pressures, with companies like Apple expected to increase prices by an average of $123 per iPhone due to the tariffs [29][37]. - The report highlights the potential for a shift in consumer behavior, with increased demand for lower-priced alternatives as a response to rising prices [44]. Section 5: Home Appliance Industry - The home appliance industry is experiencing severe supply chain disruptions and cost increases, with companies like Whirlpool facing challenges in maintaining competitive pricing while managing tariff impacts [39][40]. - The report notes that U.S. manufacturers are accelerating supply chain adjustments to mitigate tariff impacts, including shifting production to Mexico and investing in local manufacturing [43][45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][15]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 7.47 billion for 2024, a decrease of 6.8% year-on-year, with pharmaceutical sales revenue at RMB 8.62 billion, down 9.0% [11][12]. - The impact of volume-based procurement (VBP) on existing products has largely been digested, with significant sales declines in certain product lines, while innovative products are showing growth [12][14]. - The company has made substantial progress in innovative drug development, with five products already commercialized and additional candidates in various stages of clinical trials [13][14]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 was RMB 7,469 million, down 12% from the previous year, with a projected recovery to RMB 8,326 million in 2025, representing an 11% increase [3][7]. - Net profit for 2024 was RMB 1,620 million, a decline of 32% year-on-year, with an expected increase to RMB 1,671 million in 2025, reflecting a 4% growth [3][7]. - The gross margin decreased to 72.6%, primarily due to price reductions from VBP, while R&D expenditure rose to RMB 890 million, accounting for 11.9% of total revenue [11][12]. Product Line Performance - Cardiovascular and cerebrovascular products generated RMB 4.09 billion in sales, down 18.8%, while dermatology and aesthetic medicine products grew by 18.2% to RMB 670 million [12][14]. - The three VBP products achieved revenue of RMB 2.69 billion, down 28.8% year-on-year, indicating that the short-term impact of centralized procurement has largely played out [12][14]. Innovation and Pipeline - The company has five innovative drugs commercialized, with two additional products submitted for NDA approval, including a potential blockbuster [13][14]. - Over ten clinical-stage innovative programs are progressing, including treatments for various conditions such as stroke and obesity [13][14]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to RMB 8.37 billion and RMB 9.44 billion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11.5% and 13.3% [14][15]. - The target price is maintained at HKD 9.96 per share, corresponding to a 14x PE for 2025 [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][11]. Core Views - The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 17.84% year-on-year in Q4 2024, with a significant rise in the proportion of blasting services [1][6]. - The company achieved a revenue of 8.546 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.40%, and a net profit of 713 million yuan, up 12.49% year-on-year [6][11]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.30 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 285 million yuan, which accounts for 40.01% of the net profit attributable to the parent company [6][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.243 billion yuan, a 4.66% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 189 million yuan, up 17.84% year-on-year [6][11]. - The operating revenue from blasting services was 6.182 billion yuan in 2024, a 15.10% increase, accounting for 72.34% of total revenue, with a gross profit margin of 20.54% [7][11]. - The company’s total sales and management expenses decreased by 8.40% year-on-year, contributing to profit growth exceeding revenue growth [8]. Business Strategy - The company is actively seeking high-quality target assets and plans to acquire 51% of Henan Songguang Civil Explosive, which will increase its industrial explosive production capacity by 60,000 tons [9][11]. - The company has a strong presence in resource-rich areas such as Xinjiang and Xizang, with multiple engineering projects leading to significant growth in its engineering service business [10][11]. Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company is 872 million yuan for 2025, 1.016 billion yuan for 2026, and 1.149 billion yuan for 2027 [11]. - The target price is set at 15.40 yuan, based on a 22 times PE for 2025, reflecting a slight adjustment from previous estimates [11].