Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][8]. Core Views - The company's short-term performance is under pressure due to industry cost pressures and decreased production and sales. The EPS for 2025 and 2026 has been lowered to RMB 2.14 and RMB 2.57, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at RMB 2.82. The target price has been reduced by 25% to RMB 25.68, applying a 12x PE for 2025 [4][8]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders are projected to be RMB 8.51 billion and RMB 2.19 billion, representing year-on-year increases of 8.53% and 59.74% respectively. The Q4 2024 revenue and net profit are expected to be RMB 2.17 billion and RMB 460 million, with year-on-year growth of 3.38% and 22.7%, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.68% and 29.02%. In Q1 2025, revenue and net profit are projected to be RMB 2.06 billion and RMB 361 million, showing year-on-year declines of 2.79% and 28.29% [4][8]. Production and Sales Performance - By the end of 2024, the company's tyre sector production and sales are expected to reach 32.23 million and 31.41 million units, with year-on-year increases of 10.22% and 7.34%. The revenue for this segment is projected at RMB 8.50 billion, up 8.57% year-on-year. However, in Q1 2025, production and sales are expected to decline to 7.92 million and 7.38 million units, with year-on-year decreases of 1.87% and 3.02% [4][8]. Strategic Developments - The company's "833plus" strategy is progressing steadily, with the Morocco project expected to achieve large-scale production in 2025. The global capacity layout in China, Thailand, and Morocco is enhancing the company's competitiveness and profitability, aligning with long-term sustainable development needs. The company has over 5% market share in the US replacement market and over 4% in Europe [4][8].

2025Q1 净利润回升，完善电子材料布局 ——东材科技 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季度点评 本报告导读： 2025 年一季度受益于高速电子树脂及高端光学聚酯基膜等高附加值产品放量，公司 净利润实现快速增长。 投资要点： 风险提示：扩产项目投产不及预期；下游需求不及预期风险。 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 3,737 | 4,470 | 5,364 | 6,224 | 7,242 | | (+/-)% | 2.7% | 19.6% | 20.0% | 16.0% | 16.4% | | 净利润（归母） | 326 | 181 | 418 | 480 | 607 | | (+/-)% | -21.4% | -44.5% | 130.7% | 14.9% | 26.5% | | 每股净收益（元） | 0.36 | 0.20 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.68 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 7.2% ...

原材料涨价致业绩承压，拟建巴西项目基地 玲珑轮胎(601966) ——玲珑轮胎 2024 年报及 2025Q1 季报点评 本报告导读： 原材料涨价致 2025Q1 业绩承压，塞尔维亚项目产能快速爬坡中，兵器公司公告拟 投建巴西项目。公司将持续受益于中长期产能释放，配套和替换端发力。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 20,165 | 22,058 | 24,932 | 26,942 | 28,205 | | (+/-)% | 18.6% | 9.4% | 13.0% | 8.1% | 4.7% | | 净利润（归母） | 1,391 | 1,752 | 2,134 | 2,462 | 2,717 | | (+/-)% | 376.9% | 26.0% | 21.8% | 15.3% | 10.4% | | 每股净收益（元） | 0.95 | 1.20 | 1.46 | 1.68 | 1.86 | | ...

业绩大幅增长，看好制冷剂景气周期 巨化股份(600160) ——巨化股份 2024 年报及 2025Q1 季报点评 [Table_Industry] 石油/能源 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Target] 目标价格： 32.75 [Table_CurPrice] 当前价格： 25.41 [Table_Market] 交易数据 二代和三代制冷剂价格大幅上涨，公司 24 年业绩大幅增长。2025 年制冷剂配额政 策延续，叠加下游需求增长，公司作为三代制冷剂龙头将充分受益制冷剂景气周期。 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 20,655 | 24,462 | 25,664 | 27,079 | 28,445 | | (+/-)% | -3.9% | 18.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | | 净利润（归母） | 944 | 1,960 | 3,548 | 4,246 | 4 ...

[Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Target] 目标价格： 34.35 公司业绩稳定增长，积极开拓新材料领域 利安隆(300596) ——利安隆 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季度点评 [Table_CurPrice] 当前价格： 28.06 [Table_Market] 交易数据 本报告导读： 2024 年全年及 2025 年一季度公司营业收入及净利润均实现正增长，主要得益于行 业落后产能逐步出清，公司市占率提升，同时积极开发高毛利产品。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 维持"优于大市"评级。2024 年及 2025 年一季度公司营业收入及净 利润均实现正增长，主要得益于行业落后产能逐步出清，公司市占 率提升，同时积极开发高毛利产品。预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净 利润分别为 5.27、6.38 和 8.45 亿元（原 2025-26 预测为 5.71 亿元和 6.26 亿元），对应 EPS 分别为 2.29、2.78、3.68 元，参考可比公司估 值，给予 2025 年 15X PE（原为 2024 年 17x），目标价 34.35 元，维 持"优于大市" ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company with a target price of RMB 9.09, representing a potential upside of 15% from the current price of RMB 7.64 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is projected to be RMB 943 million, a year-on-year increase of 39.12%, while the net profit after non-recurring items is expected to grow by 57.07% to RMB 1.14 billion [1][9]. - The revenue for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 17.33 billion, a slight decline of 0.23% year-on-year, primarily due to lower product prices [1][9]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 0.38 per share, totaling approximately RMB 631.36 million, which accounts for 66.94% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1][9]. Financial Summary - The company achieved a net profit of RMB 678 million in 2023, with projections of RMB 943 million for 2024, RMB 1.32 billion for 2025, RMB 1.43 billion for 2026, and RMB 1.60 billion for 2027 [3][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from RMB 0.41 in 2023 to RMB 0.57 in 2024, RMB 0.79 in 2025, RMB 0.86 in 2026, and RMB 0.96 in 2027 [3][9]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 9.0% in 2023 to 15.0% in 2025, maintaining at 14.8% in the following years [3][9]. Major Projects - The company is advancing its 600,000-ton corn deep processing and cogeneration project, aiming for trial production by the end of 2025, with a total investment of RMB 3.71 billion [10]. - The project includes a processing line for producing 115,000 tons/year of various amino acids and related by-products [10]. - Additionally, the company is progressing with the Zhaodong nucleotide project, which involves a self-funded investment of RMB 167.29 million for a 3,500-ton product upgrade over 16 months [10].

扣非后净利润同比下降 14.17%，子公司获得探矿权 远兴能源(000683) ——远兴能源 2024 年年报点评 基础化工 [Table_Industry] /原材料 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Target] 目标价格： 7.60 [Table_CurPrice] 当前价格： 5.13 [Table_Market] 交易数据 52 周内股价区间（元） 4.97-8.14 本报告导读： 2024 年，公司实现扣非后净利润 20.72 亿元，同比下降 14.17%，公司全年碱业销量 同比增长 91.50%至 721.30 万吨。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 12,044 | 13,264 | 11,779 | 14,287 | 16,243 | | (+/-)% | 9.6% | 10.1% | -11.2% | 21.3% | 13.7% | | 净利润（归母） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1][5][9] Core Views - The company is facing price pressure on some products, leading to a revision of the EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.81, 1.98, and 2.19 RMB respectively. The target price is adjusted to 24.43 RMB based on a 13.5x PE for 2025 [9][11] - The company's Q1 2025 performance shows a revenue of 7.77 billion RMB, down 2.59% year-on-year and 14.09% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 707 million RMB, down 33.65% year-on-year and 17.20% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to price declines [9][10] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 27,260 million RMB - 2024A: 34,226 million RMB - 2025E: 34,290 million RMB - 2026E: 35,863 million RMB - 2027E: 37,027 million RMB - Net profit (attributable to shareholders) projections are: - 2023A: 3,576 million RMB - 2024A: 3,903 million RMB - 2025E: 3,843 million RMB - 2026E: 4,208 million RMB - 2027E: 4,653 million RMB [3][7] Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, the company sold 25.90 million tons of products, an increase of 22.92% year-on-year but a decrease of 5.53% quarter-on-quarter. Sales performance varied across sectors, with fertilizers up 36.74% year-on-year, while organic amines and acetic acid derivatives saw declines [10][11] Cost Management and Expansion - The company is focusing on enhancing cost efficiency and expanding market presence despite price pressures. Ongoing projects include melamine resin and nylon 66, with future projects like a 200,000 tons/year dibasic acid project and BDO/NMP integration on schedule [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of 77.40 RMB based on a 30X PE for 2025 [5][10]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing rapid growth driven by semiconductor chemical materials, photoresist, and LNG insulation materials, with a revenue increase of 44.84% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 6.86 billion RMB, and a net profit increase of 50.41% to 870 million RMB [11][12]. - The company leads in the semiconductor precursor and display photoresist sectors, achieving full coverage of 12-inch wafer clients and beginning mass production at its Jiangsu Sentech Yixing factory [12]. Financial Summary - Revenue and net profit projections for 2025-2027 are 8.90 billion RMB, 1.23 billion RMB; 10.89 billion RMB, 1.56 billion RMB; and 11.64 billion RMB, 1.72 billion RMB, respectively [4][10]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.58 RMB, 3.28 RMB, and 3.62 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10]. - The company reported a net asset return (ROE) of 12.1% in 2024, expected to rise to 15.0% in 2025 [4][7].

金融工程 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.08 2025-05-09 2025 年 6 月主要指数样本股调整预测 [Table_Authors] 郑雅斌(分析师) 021-38676666 多只成长股或将被调出沪深 300 指数 本报告导读： 本文对即将于 6 月份调整的沪深 300、中证 500 和科创 50 进行样本股调整预测，为 投资者提供参考。 投资要点： 证 券 报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 金 融 工 程 指 数 专 题 研 究 告 登记编号 S0880525040105 曹君豪(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040094 [Table_Summary] 沪深 300 指数：根据我们的预测，中航成飞、国货航等 6 支股票将 会被调入沪深 300 指数，而华兰生物、东方雨虹等 6 支股票将会被 调出沪深 300 指数。 中证 500 指数：根据我们的预测，神火股份、淮北矿业等 50 支股票 将会被调入中证 500 指数，而冀东水泥、新兴铸管等 50 支股票将会 被调出中证 500 指数。 科创 50 指数：根据我们的预测，恒玄科技将会被调入科创 5 ...