Investment Focus - The strategy recommendation is to wait for a pullback in tech stocks before initiating positions, with dividend stocks expected to provide support during this correction [1][8] - The Hong Kong market saw a pullback in tech stocks while dividend stocks rose, and the A-share market was led by the military sector [1][8] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.6% this week, but the gains continued to narrow compared to previous weeks, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.2% [1][8] Global Trade Landscape - Global markets are experiencing stagflation with contracting volatility and increasing downside risks due to heightened uncertainty in the trade landscape [2][9] - The US trade negotiations are progressing slowly, with limited agreements reached, indicating challenges to its dominance in the global trade system [2][9] - China is actively signing trade agreements and deepening cooperation with neighboring countries, exacerbating the uncertainty in the global trade landscape [2][9] Economic Impact - The risk of a US recession remains high, with significant declines in consumer confidence, which may further aggravate internal contradictions in the US [2][10] - China's strong export data for April may be misleading, as it could be due to "selling more at lower prices" and front-loading re-exports [2][10] Trade War Risks - The trade war has led to rapid appreciation pressures on Asian currencies and has triggered geopolitical risks, such as the escalation of the India-Pakistan conflict [3][11] - The trade war may mark a significant turning point in the gradual weakening of the US dollar's hegemony [3][11] US-China Trade Tensions - Expectations for a short-term easing of US-China trade tensions are rising, but caution is needed against profit-taking after positive news is realized [4][12] - The market has largely priced in the expectation of easing US-China trade tensions, making it difficult to quickly reach a consensus [4][12] - The timeline for substantive progress in the agreement between China and the US is expected to be in the second half of the year [4][12] Market Outlook - After a continuous market rebound, the supporting forces for A-shares in May have gradually weakened, suggesting investors should wait for a second dip pullback [5][14] - The long-term logic for investment includes the gradual easing of trade disputes, positive economic policies in China, and the strength of AI as a new economic engine [5][14] - Sector allocation recommendations include internet and AI application sectors, as well as foreign trade and cross-border payment sectors benefiting from China's trade with other countries [5][14]

Market Observation - The trade agreement between the US and UK, along with the easing of trade tensions between the US and China, has positively influenced market sentiment, leading to a rebound in the Nikkei 225 index, which closed at 37,503.33, up 1.83% from the previous week, marking the first time it surpassed 37,000 points since March 28 [3][20] - The TOPIX index also saw gains, closing at 2,733.49, up 1.7%, achieving 11 consecutive trading days of increases [3][20] - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its interest rates but lowered its economic growth and price outlook for 2025, which has delayed expectations for future rate hikes [4][5] Company Specific Insights - NTT announced plans to privatize its subsidiary NTT Data Group, acquiring the remaining 42% of shares at a price of 4,000 yen per share, representing a 33% premium over the previous closing price, with an estimated total transaction value of approximately 2.37 trillion yen [6][7] - Toyota Motor Corporation projected a 1% increase in sales for the fiscal year ending March 2026, estimating sales of 48.5 trillion yen, while anticipating a decrease in operating profit by 1 trillion yen to 3.8 trillion yen due to rising costs associated with tariffs and currency fluctuations [8][9] - Toyota is also considering privatizing Toyota Industries Corporation, which holds 9% of Toyota's shares, as part of a broader strategy to improve corporate governance and streamline its asset structure [9] - Mitsubishi Corporation announced plans to acquire a 50.1% stake in Mitsubishi Foods, with an expected purchase price of 6,340 yen per share, totaling approximately 137.6 billion yen, aligning with its strategy to enhance its consumer-related business [10]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies involved. Core Insights - The Trump administration plans to revise or cancel export restrictions on advanced AI chips, which may lead to a more flexible "chip diplomacy" strategy, allowing for bilateral agreements to adjust export conditions [9][10] - The easing of restrictions is expected to benefit companies like NVIDIA and AMD, which have faced significant losses due to previous export limitations [10][11] - Despite potential easing in other regions, the Chinese market will continue to face restrictions, with NVIDIA incurring a $5.5 billion loss due to indefinite bans on certain chip exports to China [12][13] - Domestic substitution in China is anticipated to continue, with local companies like Huawei and Cambricon expected to dominate the server and gaming PC markets [13] Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The Trump administration's shift in policy aims to enhance innovation and address complaints from allies regarding complex export rules [10] - Middle Eastern countries may leverage investment commitments to negotiate for relaxed chip export restrictions [10][11] Market Dynamics - The report highlights a potential reallocation of chip orders from China to the Middle East and Southeast Asia, with increased demand expected in these regions [11] - Companies like NVIDIA are focusing on "Sovereign AI" strategies to tap into the growing AI infrastructure needs in the Middle East [11] Chinese Market Outlook - The Chinese market remains heavily restricted, with ongoing export bans impacting high-end chip availability [12] - There is a possibility of indirect benefits for China through third-party resales, which may alleviate some supply shortages [12][13] Domestic Substitution - The report emphasizes that domestic chip manufacturers will continue to fill the gap left by foreign companies, particularly in the server and gaming markets [13] - Specific market shares are projected for key players: Huawei (60%) and Cambricon (20%) in the server market, and Jingjiawei (40%) in the gaming PC market [13]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the investment rating for CHJ Industry Core Views - The company's net profit in Q1 2025 increased significantly by 44.4% year-on-year, driven by product innovation and structural optimization [4][11] - The gold jewelry business showed steady revenue and profit growth, with franchising being the main engine for revenue increase [2][9] - The company is actively responding to fluctuations in gold prices through product innovation and cost control measures [5][12] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 6.52 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 190 million RMB, down 41.9% year-on-year due to goodwill impairment [2][9] - The revenue share of traditional gold products increased from 38.4% in 2023 to 45.3% in 2024, with a revenue growth rate of 30.2% [3][10] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenues of 2.25 billion RMB, a 25.4% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 189 million RMB [4][11] Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on high-margin products to drive profitability, with a gross profit margin improvement to 22.93% in Q1 2025 [4][11] - Management emphasizes the importance of emotional value and cultural identity in consumer purchasing decisions, aiming to enhance product IP attributes [5][12] - The retail network expanded to 1,505 stores by the end of 2024, with a focus on franchised stores and international market penetration [6][13] Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a stable dividend distribution strategy, with a proposed cash dividend of 2.5 RMB per 10 shares for 2025, resulting in a cumulative dividend ratio of 160.59% [6][14]

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 9 May 2025 全球工业与能源 Global Industrial and Energy 国际工业+能源周报(05/05-05/09): 美国计划全面改造空中交通管制系统， 北约继续强化东翼防御能力 Global industrials + Energy Updates: The U.S. plans to comprehensively modernize the national air traffic control system, and NATO continues to strengthen its defense capabilities on the eastern flank | 杨斌 Bin Yang | 毛琼佩 Olivia Mao | 杨钰其 Yuqi Yang | 明悦馨 Ella Ming | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | bin.yang@htisec.com | olivia.qp.mao@htisec.com | yq.yang@htisec.com | ella.yx.mi ...

扣非后净利润同比增长 167.68%，蓝莓效益凸显 诺普信(002215) ——诺普信 2024 年&2025Q1 点评 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.05 2025-05-09 基础化工 [Table_Industry] /原材料 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Target] 目标价格： 13.80 [Table_CurPrice] 当前价格： 9.46 [Table_Market] 交易数据 52 周内股价区间（元） 6.33-12.00 本报告导读： 2024 年，公司实现扣非后净利润 5.11 亿元，同比增长 167.68%，公司受益于云南蓝 莓亩产及土地规模增长，蓝莓销量同比增长 99.17%至 4.92 万吨。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 4,120 | 5,288 | 5,972 | 7,399 | 8,561 | | (+/-) ...

竞争加剧导致净利润下滑，制气项目稳步运行 金宏气体(688106) ——金宏气体 2025 年一季度点评 基础化工 [Table_Industry] /原材料 公 司 年 报 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 票 研 究 [Table_Invest] [Table_Target] 目标价格： 22.00 [Table_CurPrice] 当前价格： 16.63 [Table_Market] 交易数据 本报告导读： 竞争加剧产品价格及毛利率下降导致净利润同比减少，加大研发投入强化市场竞争 力。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 2,427 | 2,525 | 3,216 | 3,753 | 4,419 | | (+/-)% | 23.4% | 4.0% | 27.4% | 16.7% | 17.8% | | 净利润（归母） | 315 | 201 | 266 | 353 | 445 | | (+/-)% ...

5 月 7 日国新办召开新闻发布会，央行行长宣布三大类一共 10 项金融支持政策，货 币宽松明显发力支持"稳增长、稳预期"，接下来如果经济压力进一步增加，降息降 准等仍有空间。 投资要点： 风险提示：经济、政策的不确定性仍存 登记编号 S0880525040060 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.07 2025-05-09 货币宽松"再发力" [Table_Authors] 应镓娴(分析师) ——5 月 7 日央行一揽子货币政策点评 本报告导读： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 专 题 021-38676666 梁中华(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040019 [Table_Summary] 降准降息落地，在关键时点释放出"适度宽松"来"稳增长、稳市 场"的明确信号，体现了央行前瞻部署、主动作为。一揽子三大类 10 项货币政策组合，体现了货币政策总量与结构协同发力，对实体 和资本市场的全面支持。在外部关税冲击、内需还待提振的背景下， 央行宽松周期预计将延续，接下来如果经济压力进一步增加，降息 降准等仍有空 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1][9]. Core Views - The company's profit in 2024 was significantly impacted by exchange rate losses, but channel expansion is progressing well. Revenue is expected to grow significantly in 2025, with an improved gross profit margin (GPM). There is optimism regarding increased profit flexibility from the European and American markets in 2025-2026 [1][9]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 13.30 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.77%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 450 million, down 41.63% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, the revenue was RMB 2.69 billion, a slight decrease of 0.26% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 67.98% year-on-year to RMB 257 million [4][9]. - The company focused on growing its TO C business in 2024, with the revenue share rising from 33.82% in 2023 to 37.65% in 2024. The GPM for the TO C business was 28.99%, up 0.09% year-on-year [4][9]. - The company has strengthened its biopharmaceutical segment, achieving first-year sales of approximately USD 10 million and obtaining over 1000 new pesticide registrations, totaling over 7700 registrations by the end of 2024 [4][9]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 13.30 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 15.77%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 450 million, down 41.63% year-on-year. The Q4 2024 revenue was RMB 3.51 billion, up 18.38% year-on-year, while the net profit was RMB 109 million, up 119.23% year-on-year [2][4][9]. - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are RMB 3.65, 4.83, and 5.95, respectively, with a 2025 price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20.0x, setting a target price of RMB 73.00 [1][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][9]. Core Views - The company's performance is stable, with ongoing global project advancements. The EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are RMB 1.45 and RMB 1.59, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at RMB 1.76. Given the company's position as an industry leader and clear overseas capacity growth, a PE ratio of 13.16x is assigned for 2025, resulting in a target price of RMB 19.08 [4][9]. - In 2024, the company achieved revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 31.80 billion and RMB 4.06 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 22.42% and 31.42% [4][9]. - The company is expanding its production capacity globally, with projects in Vietnam, Cambodia, Mexico, and Indonesia. By 2024, the planned production capacity includes 27.65 million all-steel radial tyres, 106 million semi-steel radial tyres, and 447,000 tons of off-road tyres annually [4][9]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 31.80 billion and net profit of RMB 4.06 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 22.42% and 31.42%, respectively. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue and net profit of RMB 8.17 billion and RMB 0.82 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.54% and 25.00% [3][9]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the company generated revenue of RMB 8.41 billion and net profit of RMB 1.04 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 15.29% and 0.47%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.90% and 26.79% [4][9]. - The company's tyre production reached 74.81 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27.59%, while sales reached 72.16 million units, up 29.34% year-on-year [4][9].