港美股研究·资讯日报 国信（香港）市场资讯日报 一、 全球投资焦点 AI 应用板块强势领涨美股：AppLovin 两日飙涨 34% 创纪录，医疗与营销双赛道引爆市场热情 近期，美股科技股表现突出，其中 AI 应用软件股成为市场 焦点。在政策支持、技术突破以及企业财报超预期等多重因 素作用下，AI 技术在各垂直领域的商业化落地速度加快， 带动相关股票大幅上涨。这一市场表现背后，是 AI 行业发 展的新动向和投资逻辑的新变化，值得投资者深入分析。 一、AI 个股闪耀，实力诠释增长潜力 1、AppLovin（APP.US）：AI 营销的璀璨之星 在移动应用营销领域，AppLovin 是极具影响力的企业。它 为移动应用开发者提供全方位营销解决方案，涵盖广告投放、 用户获取、数据分析等环节。其商业模式独特，作为广告中 间商，整合长尾 APP 流量并精准分类用户标签，将流量资 源匹配给消费品、医药等领域的广告主，实现精准广告投放。 这种模式既满足广告主需求，也为长尾 APP 提供变现途径， 达成多方共赢。 技术层面，AXON AI 广告引擎是 AppLovin 的核心竞争力。 该引擎利用机器学习算法分析处理海量广告数据， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing "asset shortage" leading insurance companies to accelerate their investment in high-quality assets [2][3] - It notes that with the decline in long-term interest rates and continued volatility in the equity market, insurance companies are facing significant pressure on their asset side [3][12] - The report anticipates that insurance companies will further increase their investments in listed companies with high dividends, high capital appreciation potential, and high ROE attributes to match the long-term, stable demand of the insurance industry [14] Summary by Sections Investment Activity - Australia’s Commonwealth Bank transferred 5.45% of its shares in Hangzhou Bank to Xinhua Insurance, increasing Xinhua's stake to 5.87% [2][10] - The investment is expected to be accounted for under FVOCI, which may provide stable long-term returns amid the current "asset shortage" [10] Market Conditions - As of January 23, the yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds were 1.66% and 1.90%, respectively, down 89 basis points and 93 basis points since the beginning of the year [3] - The report indicates that the continuous decline in long-term bond yields increases the asset-liability matching pressure for insurance companies [3] Investment Strategy - Insurance companies are increasing their investment in high-dividend and high-ROE listed companies to secure stable investment returns [5][14] - The report mentions that since 2024, several insurance companies have intensified their stakes in quality listed companies, particularly in sectors like public utilities, transportation, and banking [5] Asset Allocation - The report states that the current allocation of FVOCI equity assets among listed insurance companies is low, at around 5%, indicating significant room for growth [8] - The average allocation of equity investments among major insurance companies is approximately 11% [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking industry [3]. Core Insights - Financial support for technology companies is centered around a multi-tiered financial market, with equity-debt linkage and policy finance as supplements. Different stages of companies have varying financing options, resulting in a multi-tiered financial market. This includes venture capital, stock markets, loans, and bond markets, which cater to the entire lifecycle financing needs of technology companies [1][12]. - The report provides case studies of Tesla, Enphase, and Insulet, illustrating the role of multi-tiered financial markets, equity-debt linkage, and policy finance in their financing journeys [1][37]. Summary by Sections Financial Support for Technology - The multi-tiered financial market facilitates continuous financing for companies, serving their entire lifecycle needs [12]. - Equity-debt linkage products, such as convertible bonds and loan-equity combinations, are designed to meet early-stage debt financing needs [12][16]. - Policy finance compensates for positive externalities of companies, addressing market failures [16]. Case Studies Tesla - Tesla's financing history reflects the three dimensions of financial support, including venture capital, public offerings, and debt financing [19][20]. - Key milestones include its founding in 2003, IPO in 2010, and achieving profitability in 2020 [14][19]. - Tesla utilized various financing methods, transitioning from equity financing to debt financing and eventually to internal financing [22][23]. Enphase - Enphase, established in 2006, focuses on solar and storage systems, achieving a 55% market share in home inverters by 2023 [30]. - The company relied on venture capital and debt financing, with no significant policy finance support [31][32]. - Enphase's financing strategy evolved from equity to debt financing, with a notable focus on high-interest loans in its early years [34]. Insulet - Insulet, founded in 2000, specializes in medical devices, particularly the Omnipod insulin pump [39]. - The company's financing characteristics are similar to those of Tesla and Enphase, utilizing a mix of equity and debt financing throughout its development [37].

美股研究·资讯晨报 国信（香港）市场资讯晨报 日元套利交易卷土重来，量化回归推动科技股上涨 一、全球投资焦点 ⚫ 日元套利交易在经历短暂崩溃后正在回升,投资者抛售日元转向高收益资产, 但对日本央行政策和全球经济形势的不确定性仍存在担忧。 1. 日元套利交易在经历了短暂的崩溃后，近期似乎正在悄然回升。自 8 月 5 日以来，日元兑美元贬值超过 5%，主要受到日本鹰派货币政 策、美国财报的不安情绪以及疲软的就业报告的影响。 2. 套利交易回归：野村国际的数据显示，各类投资者再次开始抛售日 元，将资金转向收益率更高的资产，尤其是在美国零售销售数据发布 后，套利交易明显回归。套利交易仍然非常重要，投资者正在重装日 元空头头寸，以便买入收益率更高的资产。 3. 日元空头头寸增加：ATFX Global Markets 报告称，过去一周日元的 空头头寸增加了 30%-40%，这主要是由对冲基金和高净值投资者推 动的。 4. 日本央行副行长内田伸一表示，如果金融市场不稳定，决策者不会进 一步加息。市场对日本央行是否会再次加息持观望态度。如果日本央 行按兵不动，重返市场的吸引力可能会增强。行长上田和夫将在 8 月 23 日的 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight" [2][52] Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the banking industry is expected to stabilize, with a potential bottoming out of earnings in 2024 [2][37] - The net interest margin continues to decline, impacting revenue growth, but the negative effects may lessen if the LPR does not decrease significantly in the future [11][14] - The asset quality remains stable, with a low non-performing loan ratio of approximately 1.25% as of the end of Q1 2024 [19][27] Summary by Sections Overall Review - In 2023, the total operating income of 42 listed banks decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, and in Q1 2024, it fell by 1.7% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed banks grew by 1.4% in 2023 but declined by 0.6% in Q1 2024 [7] Driving Factors - The net interest margin is under pressure due to the decline in LPR and competitive loan rates, leading to a decrease in revenue and profit growth [11][14] - Asset impairment losses have a diminishing positive contribution to net profit growth, with the overall asset impairment losses decreasing but at a slowing rate [11][27] - The growth rate of interest-earning assets has slowed down due to high base effects and balanced asset allocation [11][32] Industry Outlook - The performance for the year is expected to be close to that of Q1, with key drivers indicating a potential stabilization in earnings [37] - The non-performing loan generation rate is expected to remain stable as the macroeconomic environment improves [37] Sub-sector Performance - Different types of banks show similar trends in key driving factors, with varying pressures on provisioning for non-performing loans [38][45] - The asset quality and provisioning levels are the primary reasons for differences in net profit growth among individual banks [49] Investment Recommendations - The banking sector is currently undervalued, and potential downside risks are minimal, suggesting a favorable environment for investment [52] - Specific stock recommendations include招商银行 (China Merchants Bank) and 宁波银行 (Ningbo Bank) for their strong long-term fundamentals [53]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to Changsha Bank (601577.SH) [2][5][32] Core Views - The bank has shown significant growth in county and retail finance, with total assets reaching 1.06 trillion yuan by the end of March 2024 [2][6] - The bank's net interest margin is well-managed, with a reported net interest margin of 2.31% in 2023, only slightly narrowing by 10 basis points year-on-year [20][21] - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.15% as of the end of 2023 [21][22] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the bank achieved a revenue of 24.8 billion yuan, representing an 8.5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 7.5 billion yuan, up 9.6% year-on-year [3][19] - For the first quarter of 2024, revenue was 6.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.9% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 2.1 billion yuan, a 5.8% increase year-on-year [19] Asset Management - As of March 2024, total assets grew by 11.2% year-on-year, with total loans increasing by 14.3% [2][19] - The bank's loan structure shows a strong growth in corporate loans, which increased by 20.5% year-on-year, while personal loans saw a modest growth of 7.4% [2][19] Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income for the first quarter of 2024 grew by 22.9% year-on-year, with other non-interest income surging by 60% [2][19] Investment Valuation - The report estimates the reasonable stock price for 2024 to be between 10.1 and 11.7 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-book ratio of 0.61 to 0.70 [32][27] - The valuation reflects a potential upside of approximately 24% to 43% compared to the current stock price of 8.16 yuan [32]

3、 美股成交额前十： ⚫ 热门中概股高开高走后全天震荡上行，最终纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨 1.73%，其中网易大涨 4.11%、腾讯音乐上涨 3.45% 、唯品会上涨 2.43%、拼多多上涨 1.92%、百度上涨 1.49%、阿里巴巴上涨 1.24%，理想汽车下跌 3.38%、小鹏汽车下跌 3.62%。 的投资。伯克希尔哈撒韦在第一季度末持有的苹果公司股份价值从去 年年底的 1,743 亿美元减少到 1,354 亿美元。苹果公司近期面临一些 挑战，包括 20 亿美元的反垄断罚款、中国销量下滑以及汽车项目取 消，导致其股价下跌约 5%。 2. 伯克希尔哈撒韦的现金储备增加到创纪录的 1890 亿美元，巴菲特表 示不介意积累现金，并预计到本季度末可能达到 2000 亿美元。 3. 巴菲特提到，由于市场降息不确定、通胀高企和地缘政治风险，他最 近未能找到大规模的收购机会，暗示了他对股市的谨慎态度。 4. 伯克希尔哈撒韦集团的营业利润增长 39%，达到 112 亿美元，其中保 险业务的改善对增长贡献显著。 5. 巴菲特提到了继任问题，暗示格雷格·阿贝尔（Greg Abel）和阿吉 特·贾恩（Ajit Jain）是公 ...

行业研究 航空运输 回归常态化增长，供需状态或趋向紧平衡 2024年4月22日 航空业跟踪研究 行业研究·点评报告 1-3月，民航旅客周转量同比2019年连续正增长 基础信息 根据中国民航局的数据，2024年3月，民航旅客周转量较2019年同期增速录 所属行业 航空运输 得5.9%。其中，国内航线旅客周转量同比2019年增长15.7%，国际航线旅客 周转量同比 2019 年增速录得-21.4%。2024 年 1、2 月，民航旅客周转量较 评级 跑赢 大市 2019 年同期增速分别录得 5.2%、14.8%。至此，民航旅客周转量同比 2019 年已实现连续三个月正增长，行业整体运营已回归常态化增长轨道。 恒生指数近52周走势 2024 年一季度，民航旅客周转量较 2019 年同期增长 8.6%，其中国内航线旅 客周转量同比 2019 年增长 20.2%，国际航线旅客周转量同比 2019 年增速录 得-23.2%。 航空公司方面，2024年3月，国航、南航、东航旅客周转量较2019年同期增 速分别录得17.4%、2.7%、6%，合计增速为8.4%。 一季度国际航线加速恢复 根据中国民航局的数据，2024年1-3月 ...

超配 2024 年二季度银行股投资策略 高股息稳健，高成长跑出超额收益 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|-------------------|--------------|----------------------------| | | | | | | | 行业研究·行业快评 | | 银行 | | 证券分析师： | 田维韦 | 021-60875161 | tianweiwei@guosen.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 王剑 | 021-60875165 | wangjian@guosen.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 陈俊良 | 021-60933163 | chenjunliang@guosen.com.cn | 投资评级：超配（维持评级） | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------| | | | | | 执证编码：S0980520030002 | | | 执证编码：S0980518070002 | | | 执证编码：S0980519010001 | 核心观点： 我们判断二 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector, citing potential valuation recovery driven by steady earnings growth expectations and macroeconomic recovery [3][41] Core Views - The Japanese banking sector experienced significant challenges post the 1990s real estate bubble burst, with the TOPIX Banking Index underperforming the broader market for extended periods [12] - Japanese banks underwent massive restructuring, including mergers and increased overseas operations, to survive in a low-growth, low-interest-rate environment [28][30][32] - Despite the challenges, Japanese banks have maintained a stable ROE of around 5% since 2011, with recent improvements in profitability and valuation [13][41] - The report highlights that China's banking sector, with better economic and interest rate conditions, has stronger profitability compared to Japan, and current low valuations present limited downside risk [3][41] Company-Specific Analysis - Key companies like **Ningbo Bank**, **China Merchants Bank**, **Ruifeng Bank**, and **Changshu Bank** are rated as "Buy" with positive EPS and PE projections for 2023 and 2024 [1] - **Ningbo Bank**: 2023E EPS of 3.75, 2024E EPS of 4.10, with a PE of 5.7x and 5.2x respectively [1] - **China Merchants Bank**: 2023E EPS of 5.61, 2024E EPS of 5.98, with a PE of 5.6x and 5.3x respectively [1] - **Ruifeng Bank**: 2023E EPS of 1.22, 2024E EPS of 1.48, with a PE of 4.2x and 3.4x respectively [1] - **Changshu Bank**: 2023E EPS of 1.21, 2024E EPS of 1.42, with a PE of 5.8x and 4.9x respectively [1] Sector Transformation and Strategies - Japanese banks shifted focus to overseas markets and diversified income streams, with non-interest income contributing up to 60% of net income for major banks [28][35] - The sector saw significant consolidation, with the top five banks increasing their total asset share from 38.8% in 1996 to 64.4% in 2017 [30][32] - Banks adopted a more cautious approach to lending and asset allocation, leading to lower credit costs and non-performing loan ratios [38][41] Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the current low valuations in the banking sector present opportunities for long-term investors, particularly in high-quality banks like **China Merchants Bank** and **Ningbo Bank**, as well as smaller banks with unique business models like **Changshu Bank** and **Ruifeng Bank** [41]