Market Overview - Hong Kong stock market indices continued to rebound, driven by easing geopolitical tensions and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut[9] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,895, up 0.69% for the day and 29.09% year-to-date[3] - Major tech stocks performed well, with Baidu Group rising 4.56% and Xiaomi Group increasing by 4.35%[9] Sector Performance - New consumption concept stocks saw overall gains, with Cha Bai Dao up over 3% and Gu Ming up over 2%[9] - Battery and lithium mining stocks were strong, with Tianqi Lithium up 4.81% and Ganfeng Lithium up 3.46%[9] - Precious and non-ferrous metal stocks generally rose, supported by increased expectations for a Fed rate cut, with Chifeng Jilong Gold up 4.86%[9] U.S. Market Insights - U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the market assessing the Fed's rate cut prospects and developments in the AI sector[9] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the December meeting is approximately 82% according to the CME FedWatch Tool[9] - Kevin Hassett is viewed as a leading candidate for the next Fed chair, which could lead to a more aggressive rate cut policy[9] Japanese Market Dynamics - The Nikkei 225 index saw minimal movement, closing up 0.07%, with SoftBank Group dropping nearly 10%[13] - Concerns over foreign investment risks and competition in the AI sector are impacting market sentiment[13] Chinese Concept Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.35%, with notable gains in stocks like Hesai up 10.98% and Bawang Tea up 6.69%[10]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a significant recovery on November 24, with all three major indices ending a streak of declines[9] - Large tech stocks performed strongly, with Kuaishou rising over 7%, and NetEase and Bilibili increasing over 5%[9] - The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 5,546, up 2.78% for the day and 24.11% year-to-date[3] Sector Performance - Innovative pharmaceuticals and outsourcing concepts saw notable gains, with companies like Innovent Biologics rising over 6%[9] - Military stocks also performed well, with China Shipbuilding Defense up over 13%[9] - Oil stocks were weak, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China Oilfield Services both declining over 1%[9] U.S. Market Insights - On the same day, U.S. markets saw all three major indices close higher, driven by increased bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut[9] - The "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks, including Google and Nvidia, all rose, with Google gaining over 6%[9] - The S&P 500 index is projected to achieve double-digit annual growth according to HSBC strategists[14] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates in December, with market predictions showing a 70% probability[14] - The U.S. economy's third-quarter GDP report has been delayed due to a government shutdown, affecting economic analysis[14] Investment Trends - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 2.82%, indicating a positive trend for Chinese concept stocks[13] - Significant inflows into semiconductor stocks were noted, with companies like Broadcom surging 11%[13]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,220, down 2.38% for the day and 5.09% for the week, but up 25.72% year-to-date[3] - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell 3.21% to 5,395, with a year-to-date increase of 20.76%[3] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 2.45% to 8,920, with a year-to-date rise of 22.36%[3] - The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 2.45% to 3,835, with a year-to-date increase of 14.41%[3] Sector Performance - The lithium battery sector saw significant declines, with Ganfeng Lithium down over 12% and Tianqi Lithium down over 11%[9] - Semiconductor stocks also performed poorly, with Innolux down over 8% and SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor both down over 6%[9] - Xiaomi-related stocks rose against the trend, driven by the launch of Xiaomi's enhanced smart driving system[9] U.S. Market Insights - On November 21, U.S. markets saw all major indices rise, with the Dow Jones gaining approximately 1.1%[9] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December increased from under 40% to over 70% following dovish comments from New York Fed President Williams[9] - Notable movements in large tech stocks included Google up 3.53% and Nvidia down 0.96%[9] Japanese Market Trends - The Nikkei 225 index fell 2.4%, with a cumulative decline of 3.5% over the past week[13] - Japanese semiconductor stocks faced significant drops, with Tokyo Electron down 7.14% and Advantest down 12.10%[13] - The Japanese government announced a $135 billion economic stimulus plan, adding pressure to the yen and government bonds[13]

要点摘要 【上周焦点】 国信证券(香港)·宏观周报 宏观周报（2025/11/10-11/14）：美国政府停摆结 束，市场降息预期骤降 【宏观经济概览】 【观点及配置建议】 2025 年 11 月 17 日 宏观周报 主要股市指数近一年表现 主要利率近一年表现 主要商品指数近一年表现 主要汇率近一年表现 黄金及比特币近一年表现 数据日期：2025 年 11 月 14 日 资料来源：万得，国信证券（香港）财富研 究部整理 JIANG CHAOYI SFC CE No.: BWT372 +852 62345097 jadejiang@guosen.com.hk 注：以上数据均来官方披露、公司资料，国信证券（香港）研究部整理，请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露及其项下所有内容。 ⚫ 美国：市场在宏观政策不确定性、科技股剧烈波动以及市场 情绪快速转向中度过。全周行情呈现出典型的"事件驱动" 特征，市场先因政府停摆结束而欢腾，后因对人工智能泡沫 和美联储政策的担忧而陷入调整。 ⚫ 中国：宏观政策持续发力，政策面聚焦于培育长期增长新动 能。而资本市场则呈现出明显的结构性机会，A股创阶段性 新高后震荡分化，尤其是成长板块内部的高 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,073, up 0.56% for the day and 34.96% year-to-date[3] - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 0.80% to 5,981, with a year-to-date increase of 33.87%[3] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 0.68% to 9,599, showing a year-to-date growth of 31.68%[3] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks showed mixed results; Alibaba rose over 3% following news of a rebranding to enhance AI recognition[9] - The paper industry saw significant gains, with Nine Dragons Paper up over 10% due to a price increase of 30-100 RMB per ton[9] - The innovative drug sector was active, with 3SBio rising over 10% and BeiGene up over 7% after reporting a net profit of 1.139 billion RMB for Q3[9] Commodity and Energy Markets - Lithium battery stocks surged, with Ganfeng Lithium increasing over 12% as lithium carbonate futures rose 20% since mid-October[9] - Gold stocks collectively strengthened, with China Silver Group up over 12% as spot gold prices surpassed $4,220 per ounce[9] - OPEC warned of a "structural surplus" in the global oil market, leading to a decline in international oil prices[9] U.S. Market Trends - U.S. major indices closed lower, with the S&P 500 down 1.65% and the Nasdaq down 2.29% amid concerns over interest rate cuts[9] - Large tech stocks mostly fell, with Nvidia down 3.58% and Amazon down 2.71%[12] - The market's sentiment was pressured by Fed officials expressing hesitance on further rate cuts, reducing the probability of a December cut to nearly 50%[9] Japanese Market Insights - The Nikkei 225 index rose 0.43%, supported by a rebound in investor sentiment following the end of the U.S. government shutdown[12] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan increased by 2.7% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations[12] - Bank stocks in Japan generally strengthened, with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group up 2%[12]

港股市场表现 美股市场表现 ⚫ 美东时间周三，华尔街主要股指收盘涨跌不一。道指在金融 与医疗板块推动下再度刷新历史新高，而纳指则因资金从高 估值科技股持续流出而连续走弱。市场对已持续创纪录的美 国联邦政府停摆即将结束的预期，是推动板块轮动和市场情 绪回暖的关键因素。 资讯日报：美联储再现人事变动 股票市场概览 2025 年 11 月 13 日 资讯日报 海外市场主要股市上日表现 | 指数 | 收盘价 | 日常关 | 居居民 | 年初至今 消费 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | (%) | | | | | | | (%) | | 宿生指数 | 26,923 | 0.85 | 2.59 | 34.21 | | 恒生科技 | 5,934 | 0.16 | 1.66 | 32.81 | | 恒生国企 | 9.539 | 0.82 | 2.93 | 30.85 | | ┣证指数 | 4.000 | (0.07) | 0.06 | 19.34 | | 日经225 | 50.843 | 0.43 | 1.57 | 28.00 | | 新加坡海峡 | 4.542 | ...

Labor Market Insights - The ADP report indicates an average weekly loss of 11,250 jobs in the U.S. private sector for the four weeks ending October 25, reflecting a slowdown in the labor market[12] - The small business optimism index fell to a six-month low, driven by deteriorating profits and weakened economic confidence[14] Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,696, up 0.18% for the day and 33.08% year-to-date[3] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,832, with a daily increase of 10.21% and a year-to-date gain of 16.41%[3] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Apple rising 2.16% and Nvidia falling 2.96%[12] Sector Highlights - The new consumption sector performed well, with stocks like Lao Pu Gold rising over 2%[9] - The semiconductor sector faced declines, with Huahong Semiconductor down over 3%[9] - Airline stocks generally rose, with Cathay Pacific up over 2%, driven by expectations of a super cycle in the airline industry[9] Economic and Political Context - President Trump warned of "disastrous consequences" for the economy if the Supreme Court rules against his tariff powers[12] - The U.S. House of Representatives plans to vote on a temporary funding bill, which may impact economic data collection[11]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,649, up 1.55% for the day and 32.85% year-to-date[3] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,832, increasing by 1.54% daily and 16.17% year-to-date[3] - The Nasdaq Composite rose by 2.27% to 23,527, with a year-to-date increase of 21.83%[3] Economic Indicators - China's CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and turned positive year-on-year with a 0.2% increase, marking the first rise in six months[9] - Core CPI in China increased by 1.2% year-on-year, continuing a six-month upward trend[9] Sector Performance - Major tech stocks in Hong Kong saw gains, with Tencent, Kuaishou, and Alibaba rising over 2%[9] - New consumption stocks performed strongly, with China Duty Free up over 15%[9] - Gold stocks collectively surged, with companies like Chifeng Jilong Gold and China Silver Group rising over 6%[9] U.S. Government Developments - The U.S. government is expected to end its longest shutdown, with a compromise plan passing a key Senate vote[12] - This development has significantly boosted market risk appetite, leading to gains in major U.S. indices[12] Stock Movements - Nvidia surged by 5.8%, Palantir jumped 8.8%, and Tesla rose by 3.7% following positive market sentiment[12] - Chinese concept stocks also saw a rise, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 2.25%[12]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a recovery in bullish sentiment, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 2.74% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by 2.12%[9] - Southbound capital net inflow into Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 5.479 billion[9] Sector Performance - Technology stocks collectively surged, with Alibaba up over 4% and JD.com up over 3%[9] - Financial heavyweight stocks, including insurance and Chinese banks, also contributed to the market's rise[9] - Aluminum sector stocks led gains in the non-ferrous metals sector, with China Aluminum rising over 11%[9] U.S. Market Performance - Major U.S. indices closed lower, with the Nasdaq down 1.9%, S&P 500 down 1.12%, and Dow Jones down 0.84%[9] - Large tech stocks experienced declines, with Nvidia and Tesla both dropping over 3%[9] Notable Stock Movements - New stock Wangshan Wangshui debuted with a 145.73% increase on its first trading day[9] - Semiconductor stocks remained strong, with SMIC rising over 7% amid expectations of continued price increases in the fourth quarter[9] Economic Indicators - U.S. employers announced 153,074 layoffs in October, marking a 175% increase compared to the previous year[13] - The Bank of England maintained interest rates at 4%, indicating potential for future rate cuts[13]

Market Overview - The ADP employment report for October showed an increase of 42,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 28,000, marking the largest gain since July 2025[12] - Major U.S. indices closed higher, with the Nasdaq up 0.65%, the Dow Jones up 0.48%, and the S&P 500 up 0.37%[9] - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.07% and 0.56%, respectively, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.23%[3] Sector Performance - Large tech stocks showed mixed results, with JD.com, Alibaba, and Xiaomi declining, while Meituan rose by 1.3%[9] - The energy sector saw significant investment, with State Grid's fixed asset investment exceeding 420 billion CNY, leading to gains in related stocks[9] - Financial and gaming stocks generally performed well, while education, restaurant, automotive, and semiconductor stocks were weak[9] International Indices - The Nikkei 225 index fell by 2.5%, influenced by a broader tech sell-off, while the DAX in Germany rose by 0.42%[3][12] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 0.15%, with JinkoSolar and Canadian Solar seeing gains of 16% and 13.7%, respectively[12] Notable Company Movements - Tesla shares rose over 4% amid news of a significant compensation proposal for CEO Elon Musk[9] - Pinterest's stock dropped over 21%, marking its second-worst single-day performance since its U.S. IPO due to tariff impacts on advertising revenue[12] - AMD's stock increased by 2.5% after reporting Q3 earnings that exceeded expectations, although Q4 guidance was less impressive[9]