Investment Rating - The report indicates a short-term adjustment in the yield of wealth management products due to recent policy changes, suggesting a cautious outlook for the immediate future [1][6]. Core Insights - The central bank's recent policies, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, are expected to ease liquidity pressures and improve market confidence, leading to a significant rise in A-shares [1][6]. - Despite the positive market response, there are concerns about potential profit-taking and the sustainability of these gains, particularly in the bond market, which may face short-term adjustments [1][6]. - The report highlights that cash management products have maintained a stable annualized yield of 1.73%, while the yield gap between cash management products and money market funds has narrowed to 15 basis points [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Impact on Wealth Management Yields - The central bank's announcement of monetary easing measures is expected to provide a favorable long-term environment for the bond market, despite short-term volatility in wealth management product net values [1][6]. 2. Cash Management Product Yields - As of September 22, 2024, cash management products reported a 7-day annualized yield of 1.73%, unchanged from the previous week, while money market funds saw a slight increase to 1.58% [7][8]. 3. Performance of Wealth Management Products - Non-cash fixed income products have shown a near 1-month annualized yield of 2.47%, an increase of 8 basis points from the previous week, while 6-12 month fixed income products have decreased to 3.63% [8][9]. - The 1-3 year fixed income products reported a 1-year annualized yield of 3.37%, reflecting a slight increase of 1 basis point [9]. 4. Maturity and Compliance of Wealth Management Products - From September 16 to September 22, 2024, the total maturity scale of wealth management products reached 254.7 billion, with an average compliance rate of 55%, a decrease of 1% from the previous week [11][12].

Policy Impact - The central bank's "combination punch" includes a 50 basis point reserve requirement cut, releasing approximately CNY 1 trillion in liquidity, with potential further cuts of 25-50 basis points by year-end[3] - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate is lowered by 20 basis points to 1.5%, aiming to guide loan and deposit rates downward[3] - Existing mortgage rates are expected to decrease by about 50 basis points, reducing annual household interest expenses by approximately CNY 150 billion[3] Market Reaction - The A-share market saw a significant increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 4.15%, marking the largest single-day gain since August 2020[3] - Trading volume surged to nearly CNY 1 trillion, indicating strong market participation and optimism[3] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the A-share market may have entered a phase of rebound, with potential for broad-based gains across sectors such as consumer goods, infrastructure, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications)[6] - Continued fiscal policy support is crucial for transitioning from a rebound to a sustained market uptrend, particularly focusing on household income and consumption[5] Debt Market Perspective - The bond market may experience a short-term adjustment due to profit-taking, with a potential consolidation period of 1-2 months anticipated[6] - Despite this, the long-term trend for bonds remains positive, supported by expectations of further interest rate cuts from both domestic and U.S. Federal Reserve policies[6] Risk Factors - Key risks include potential underperformance of policy measures, slower-than-expected economic recovery, and external factors such as U.S. economic conditions and geopolitical tensions[2][7]

+ 2024 年 09 月 24 日 证券研究报告 | 产业月报 8 月国内钢铁供需双弱，出口同比增幅重回两位数 钢铁 8 月月报 分析师：张锦 分析师登记编码：S0890521080001 电话：021-20321304 8 月钢铁供给同比降幅扩大，长材库存去化明显，出口同比提速。8 月粗钢产 量 7792 万吨，同比-10.4%，前值为-9%。库存端，因钢材减量主要来自建材端， 螺纹、线材的去库趋势较为明显，板材库存变化幅度不大。截至 8 月底，螺纹 钢、线材、中厚板、热轧板卷、冷轧板卷的库存与 7 月底库存相比，变化幅度 分别为-21.6%、-21.4%、-2.2%、2.7%、-2.1%。8 月国内钢材出口 950 万吨， 同比 14.7%，前值为 7.1%。 邮箱：zhangjin@cnhbstock.com 邮箱：wuhan@cnhbstock.com 钢材终端消费仍处淡季之中，钢价持续震荡下行。8 月淡季影响持续深入，整 体需求偏弱。五大材周度平均表观消费量合计 831.6 万吨，同比-10%，前值为 -4%。其中长材周度平均表观消费合计 291.03 万吨，同比-22.2%，环比-11.4%; ...

2024 年 09 月 24 日 证券研究报告 | 产业周报 铁水产量连续第四周回升，铁矿供应远端降、近端增 铁矿行业周度报告 分析师登记编码：S0890521080001 电话：021-20321304 供应：本周（9.14-9.20）进口铁矿石远端供应下滑，近端供应增长 9.31%。 本周澳洲、巴西本周发货量（14 个港口）合计 2477.4 万吨，环比下滑 197 万 吨，下滑幅度为-7.37%，高于去年同期 12.7%。澳洲、巴西发货量（14 个港口 合计）分别为 1762 万吨、715.4 万吨，环比分别为-6.21%、-10.1%。四大矿 山发货至中国的量合计 1958.8 万吨，环比-13.4%,四家矿山发货量均呈下滑态 势。力拓、必和必拓、淡水河谷、FMG 本周至中国的发货量分别为 592.8 万吨、 432 万吨、591.1 万吨、342.9 万吨，环比分别为-4.08%、-25.84%、-10.71%、 -14.17%。到港方面，中国 26 港到港量 2229.2 万吨，环比 9.31%；中国北方 港口到港量 1264.8 万吨，环比 11.85%。国内矿方面，9 月 7 日-9 月 20 ...

2024 年 09 月 23 日 证券研究报告 | 产业周报 动力电池行业周报：锂矿供给出清正在进行中，现已出 现锂矿减产甚至停产消息 2024.09.14-2024.09.20 电力设备及新能源 分析师：胡鸿宇 分析师登记编码：S0890521090003 电话：021-20321074 邮箱：huhongyu@cnhbstock.com 行业数据：1）本周工业级碳酸锂市场均价 7.15 万元/吨，较上周价格持平； 电池级碳酸锂市场均价 7.45 万元/吨，较上周价格持平。2）三元材料 523 单 晶动力市场价格在 10.95 万元/吨，较上周价格持平；三元材料 622 多晶消费 市场价格在 10.9 万元/吨，较上周价格持平；高镍 811 多晶动力材料市场价格 在 14.9 万元/吨，较上周价格持平。3）负极材料市场集中度较高，本周价格持 平，市场参考价格为 3.3 万元/吨，市场供应充足。4）电解液价格持平，磷酸 铁锂电解液市场均价为 1.83 万元/吨，较上周同期价格持平；三元/常规动力电 解液市场均价为 2.5 万元/吨，较上周同期价格持平。电解液企业多为定制生 产，基本按单进行生产，与下游市场关联 ...

2024 年 09 月 23 日 证券研究报告 | 产业周报 日均铁水产量增幅收窄，成材价格震荡上行 钢铁行业周度报告 分析师：张锦 分析师登记编码：S0890521080001 电话：021-20321304 供应：本周（9.14-9.20）日均铁水产量增幅收窄，成材端螺纹钢增产明显。 本周高炉开工率（样本数 247 家）78.23%，环比上升 0.6 个百分点；日均铁水 产量持续回升至 223.83 万吨，环比上升 0.45 万吨，涨幅为 0.2%，低于前期的 0.35%的增幅。五大材总产量 808.02 万吨，环比 0.9%，增量主要来自长材端。 长材产量合计 276.4 万吨，环比 3%；板材产量合计 531.62 万吨，环比-0.14%。 前期吨钢利润的逐步恢复促进钢厂复产，分品种来看，螺纹钢增产明显，热卷 产量回落。本周螺纹钢、线材、中厚板、热轧板卷、冷轧板卷的周度产量分别 为 194.23 万吨、82.17 万吨、145.77 万吨、301.28 万吨、84.57 万吨，环比分 别为 3.36%、2.06%、-0.05%、-0.29%、0.28%。本周铁水产量连续第三周回 升，长流程钢厂复产稳步 ...

2024 年 09 月 22 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 美联储降息落地，市场情绪边际改善 策略周报 分析师：郝一凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 1、《节前情绪低迷，量价再临冰点 —策 略周报》2024-09-17 2、《沪指跌破 2800，情绪低迷待政策信 号—策略周报》2024-09-08 3、《月末超跌修复，银行板块大幅回 落—策略周报》2024-09-01 4、《成交延续低迷，仍待政策破局—策 略周报》2024-08-24 5、《A 股再现地量，继续保持耐心—策 略周报》2024-08-18 投资要点 基本面回顾与资产配置展望：美联储降息落地，50BP 降息幅度相对偏大，且美 联储主席鲍威尔否认经济衰退，提振全球风险偏好；国内经济通胀数据延续低迷， 政策加码的必要性提升，但 LPR 按兵不动显示出政策仍有定力，需耐心等待增量政 策落地。 A 股市场回顾与展望：上周（9 月 18 日-9 月 20 日）A 股市场成交活跃度有所回 升，两市成交额从低位回升至 5626 亿元，较前一周增加 433 亿元 ...

2024 年 09 月 20 日 证券研究报告 | 银行理财周报 美联储降息是否会影响银行理财产品收益？ 银行理财产品周数据 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

2024 年 09 月 19 日 证券研究报告 | 产业点评报告 全国碳交易扩容，加快钢铁行业绿色转型 ——《全国碳排放权交易市场覆盖水泥、钢铁、 电解铝行业工作方案（征求意见稿）》解读 碳交易扩容点评 分析师登记编码：S0890521080001 电话：021-20321304 邮箱：zhangjin@cnhbstock.com 碳交易对钢铁行业的影响：《意见稿》将"2.6 万吨二氧化碳当量"作为纳入 全国碳市场的钢铁行业重点排放单位门槛，相当于将国内钢铁冶炼企业全部纳 入全国碳市场。届时，我国钢铁行业将由地方碳市场转向全国碳市场，根据环 球零碳研究中心预测，预计覆盖钢铁冶炼企业数量由60余家增加至560家左右， 覆盖钢铁碳排放规模由 2 亿吨扩容至近 18 亿吨左右。碳交易对钢铁行业影响主 要体现在：1）促进钢铁行业绿色低碳转型；2）促进传统设备的升级改造和电 炉钢的发展；3）促进企业兼并重组。 邮箱：wuhan@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 资料来源：iFind，华宝证券研究创新部 相关研究报告 1、《铁矿发运量明显下滑 12.26%，需 求小幅回升 0.78%—铁矿行业周度报告 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a low market sentiment with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 2800, indicating a need for policy signals to improve the situation [1][4] - The A-share market experienced a significant decline in trading volume, dropping to 519.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 67.5 billion yuan from the previous week, reflecting a continued lack of market activity [4][12] - The report notes that the overall market is characterized by weak performance in large-cap stocks and a lack of sustainable opportunities across various sectors, leading to a persistent loss effect [4][13] Group 2 - The report indicates that U.S. inflation data was slightly stronger than expected, reducing concerns about an economic recession, while the domestic economic inflation data remains low, increasing the necessity for policy measures [4][15] - A significant increase in A-share risk premium was observed, reaching a new high for the year, as the equity market remains weak and the bond market rises [8][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming policy signals, particularly the LPR quotation on September 20, which could influence market sentiment amid expectations of potential interest rate cuts and fiscal measures [15]