Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 21.40 CNY, based on a 20x PE valuation for the comparable companies in 2025 [2][5]. Core Views - The company's overall sales have shown positive growth both year-on-year and month-on-month, indicating that the reforms are beginning to take effect [1][8]. - The company has seen significant improvements in its sales performance, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment and overseas markets, with February wholesale sales increasing by 41.9% year-on-year and 11.7% month-on-month [8]. - The company is undergoing substantial reforms, including a restructuring of its passenger vehicle segment and a deep cooperation agreement with Huawei, which is expected to enhance its brand influence and sales performance [8]. Financial Forecasts and Key Metrics - The forecasted EPS for 2024-2026 is 0.15 CNY, 1.07 CNY, and 1.16 CNY respectively [2]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 611,672 million CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 15.8%, followed by a recovery in 2025 with a growth of 10.2% [4]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 10.2% in 2023 to 11.0% in 2026, while the net profit margin is projected to stabilize around 1.9% by 2026 [4]. - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to drop significantly to 1,771 million CNY in 2024, before rebounding to 12,377 million CNY in 2025 and 13,389 million CNY in 2026 [4].

基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 03 日 看好（维持） | 倪吉 | 021-63325888*7504 | | --- | --- | | | niji@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517120003 | | 顾雪莺 | guxueying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080005 | 寻找景气复苏的周期行业之十三：乙二醇 2025-01-23 站在新秩序的起点：化工行业 2025 年度投 资策略 2024-12-18 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 ⚫ 项目进展不及预期；需求不及预期；海外销售不及预期；原材料价格大幅波动。 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 本周化肥产品持续涨价 ⚫ 我们监测的 188 种化工产品中，本周价格涨幅前 3 名的产品分别为硫酸（上涨 16.6%）、硫磺（上涨 13.4%）、氯化钾（上涨 11.2%）；跌幅 ...

造纸轻工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 3 月智利纸浆外盘报价继续提涨 ——造纸产业链数据每周速递（2025/03/01） 核心观点 ⚫ 本周轻工制造行业指数上涨 0.19%，跑赢大盘 2.41pct；造纸子板块下跌 0.12%， 跑赢大盘 2.11pct。本周沪深 300 指数下跌 2.22%，轻工制造(申万)指数上涨 0.19%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.41pct，在 28 个申万一级行业中位列第 7 位；二级行 业中，造纸子板块下跌 0.12%，跑赢大盘 2.11pct。本周轻工四大子板块按涨幅由大 到小分别为家具、文娱用品、造纸以及包装印刷板块，其中家具板块上涨 0.89%， 文娱用品、造纸以及包装印刷板块分别下跌 0.07%、0.12%、0.41%。 产业链数据跟踪 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 近期 Suzano 宣布 2025 年 3 月阔叶浆报价环比提涨 20 美元/吨、国内现货价格亦开 始触底回升，成本支撑下文化纸、白卡纸有望延续价格修复态势，推荐林浆纸一体 化行业龙头太阳纸业(002078，买入)。同时回溯历史来看，特种纸企业在浆价上行 之后的半年内通常会呈现出盈利扩张，推荐特种纸领军企业仙鹤 ...

有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 2 月制造业 PMI 超预期，关注钢铁板块投 资机会 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 9 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 国内宏观经济增速放缓；美国通胀增速放缓；原材料价格波动 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 03 日 看好（维持） 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | 供给优化需求改善，积极关注稀土产业链 | 2025-02-23 | | --- | --- | | 投 资 机 会 ： — — 有 色 钢 铁 行 业 周 观 点 | | | （2025 年第 8 周） | | | 欧洲引领非美市场制造业前景改善，关注 | 2025-02-16 | | 铜矿股投资机会：——有色钢铁行业周观 | | | 点（2025 年第 7 周） | | | 关税或推升避险与通胀，关注黄金股投资 | 2025-02-09 | | 机会：——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年 | | | 第 ...

核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 按照上述分析，我们预计成品油景气度将维持较好水平，同时销售份额将逐步向正 规渠道转移。正规炼油企业有望受益于炼油利润与成品油份额双重提升，建议关注 荣盛石化、恒力石化、中国石化、中国石油。 风险提示 ⚫ 政策风险；汽油需求不及预期；炼厂项目风险；假设条件变化；产能统计偏差风 险。 国家/地区 中国 行业 石油化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 02 日 看好（维持） 石油化工行业 行业研究 | 深度报告 地炼规范整顿加紧，炼油行业趋势如何 | 倪吉 | 021-63325888*7504 | | --- | --- | | | niji@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517120003 | | 顾雪莺 | guxueying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080005 | 非正规市场份额退出，看好成品油高景气 2023-07-23 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 小型 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and parts industry [5] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential growth in humanoid robotics and the automotive supply chain, suggesting that related companies may see both profit and valuation increases [2][13] - It forecasts that competitive domestic brands and new forces in intelligent driving technology will continue to expand their market share by 2025 [2][13] - The report highlights the strong sales performance of various automotive brands in February, with significant year-on-year growth for both traditional and new energy vehicles [10][27] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends continued focus on humanoid robotics and automotive supply chain investment opportunities, with specific companies expected to benefit [2][13] - Suggested companies for investment include SAIC Motor, BYD, Changan Automobile, and several others in the automotive and parts sectors [2][14] Market Performance - The automotive sector experienced a decline of 3.0%, underperforming compared to the broader market [16] - Notable stock performances included HaiTaiKe and Dele Shares, which saw significant gains, while others like Longsheng Technology faced substantial losses [16][17] Sales Tracking - February sales data indicates a strong performance in the automotive sector, with a 53% year-on-year increase in wholesale sales [25] - New energy vehicle brands like XPeng and Li Auto reported remarkable growth, with XPeng's deliveries increasing by 570% year-on-year [27] Industry Dynamics - The report notes that Tesla is preparing to update its software in China to deploy Full Self-Driving (FSD) features, which could enhance its competitive position in the market [48]

- The report tracks the first batch of Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market) bond funds, with multiple fund companies submitting applications for the Shanghai AAA Sci-Tech Innovation Corporate Bond Index Initiated Fund[1][3][7] - The second batch of Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETFs has started to be listed, with Guotai Fund announcing the issuance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Composite Index ETF from February 24 to March 7, and Tibet Dongcai Fund announcing the issuance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Composite Index ETF from March 3 to March 14[3][7] - The report provides detailed data on the performance of various types of funds, including stock funds, mixed funds, bond funds, and quantitative products, with specific performance metrics such as average returns and net value growth rates[5][21][24] - The report highlights the dynamics of on-exchange funds, noting that the largest ETF tracking target is the CSI 300, with a total scale of 962.894 billion yuan, followed by the CSI A500 and the STAR 50[5][29][31] - The report includes data on the issuance and establishment of new funds, detailing the number and scale of newly established funds in the past year, as well as the specific details of newly issued funds in the current period[8][12][14] - The report provides information on fund manager changes, listing the funds that experienced manager changes in the past week and the fund companies with the most changes[17][19] - The report discusses the potential risks associated with quantitative models, including the impact of extreme market environments and the possibility of model failure based on historical data analysis[5][42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking industry [5]. Core Insights - The banking sector is entering a period of intensive stable growth policies, with monetary easing followed by fiscal measures, significantly impacting the fundamentals of banks in 2025. The central government's fiscal deficit rate has considerable room for improvement, and incremental fiscal policies are expected to support social financing and credit, boosting economic expectations. This environment is likely to benefit cyclical stocks [3]. - The net interest margin for banks is under short-term pressure due to a broad decline in interest rates, but the concentration of high-interest deposits entering a repricing cycle, along with regulatory measures against high-interest deposit solicitation, will provide important support for bank margins in 2025 [3]. - 2025 is anticipated to be a year of solidifying asset quality for banks, with policy support expected to significantly improve risk expectations in real estate and urban investment assets. Certain personal loan categories that have adequately addressed risk exposure and disposal may also see a turning point in asset quality [3]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report highlights three main investment themes: 1. High dividend stocks, particularly state-owned banks like Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398) [3]. 2. Cyclical stocks and quality city commercial banks, recommending attention to China Merchants Bank (600036), Ningbo Bank (002142), Shanghai Bank (601229), Nanjing Bank (601009), and Hangzhou Bank (600926) [3]. 3. Stocks with improving risk expectations, suggesting focus on Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077) and Ping An Bank (000001) due to anticipated improvements in asset quality for consumer loans and credit cards [3]. Financial Performance - As of Q4 2024, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of commercial banks' net profit decreased by 2.3%, with significant performance divergence among different types of banks. State-owned and joint-stock banks showed improvements, while city commercial and rural commercial banks experienced declines [6]. - The total assets and liabilities of commercial banks grew at a rate of 7.2% and 7.3%, respectively, with state-owned banks showing a slowdown in expansion [6]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks was 1.52% for the entire year of 2024, with slight declines observed in city commercial banks and joint-stock banks, while rural commercial banks showed improvement [6]. - The asset quality indicators improved, with non-performing loans decreasing by 97.7 billion yuan and the non-performing loan ratio dropping to 1.50% [6]. Risk Weighted Assets and Capital Adequacy - The growth rate of risk-weighted assets for commercial banks continued to decline, with capital adequacy ratios showing improvement across various bank categories [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" for several companies, indicating a strong outlook relative to market benchmarks [6][4]. Core Insights - Recent price increases in chemical products are attributed to post-holiday demand recovery, industry self-discipline, and fluctuations in overseas supply. There is a recommendation to focus on companies with upward earnings elasticity [11][4]. - Emerging applications such as AI and robotics are creating new demand growth points for upstream materials, suggesting a focus on beneficiaries in new materials [11][4]. - The geopolitical situation has impacted oil supply expectations, with a preference for leading companies that are less correlated with oil prices and have strong alpha characteristics [11][4]. - The importance of food security has increased due to global instability, leading to a more rigid demand in the agriculture and food supply chain [11][4]. Summary by Sections Oil and Chemical Prices - As of February 21, Brent oil price decreased by 0.4% to $74.43 per barrel, influenced by various supply-side disturbances [13]. - On February 14, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory was 432.5 million barrels, with a weekly increase of 4.6 million barrels [13]. - Among 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were natural gas (up 11.9%), epoxy chloropropane (up 7.8%), and sulfur (up 6.8%) [14][15]. Price Changes - The top three products with the largest weekly price increases were natural gas (up 11.9%), epoxy chloropropane (up 7.8%), and sulfur (up 6.8%) [15]. - The monthly price increase leaders included petroleum coke (up 52.4%), coal tar (up 16.6%), and diethanolamine (up 16.5%) [15]. - The top three products with the largest weekly price decreases were TDI 80/20 (down 12.8%), acrylonitrile (down 8.7%), and lysine (down 8.6%) [17]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Wanhua Chemical: Core product MDI shows recent profit improvement, with upcoming petrochemical and new material projects [11]. - Huamao Technology: A leader in specialty polyether, has entered a growth phase again [11]. - Jinhui Industrial: Leader in maltol and sucralose, with signs of marginal changes at the bottom of the product cycle [11]. - Wankai New Materials: A rare low-cost ethylene glycol company with forward-looking overseas business plans [11]. - Yuntianhua: A leading company in the domestic phosphate chemical industry with sustainable phosphate ore market conditions [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the new energy vehicle industry [5] Core Insights - The demand for new energy vehicles is showing a strong upward trend, with sales expected to reach 12.865 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 35%. The installed capacity of power batteries is projected to be 548.4 GWh, up 41% year-on-year [10][11] - The overall profitability of the industry is stabilizing and showing slight improvement, with upstream lithium resources and downstream batteries recovering significantly. However, midstream materials are still affected by the depreciation of lithium carbonate [10][11] - The focus on solid-state battery technology is emerging, with significant opportunities for technological upgrades. The mainstream direction involves sulfide solid electrolytes paired with high-nickel ternary cathodes and silicon-carbon anodes [11][12] Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the new energy vehicle industry [5] Key Market Trends - In 2024, China's new energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 12.865 million units, a 35% increase year-on-year, while power battery installations are projected at 548.4 GWh, a 41% increase [10][11] - The profitability trend in the industry is stabilizing, with upstream lithium resources and downstream batteries showing recovery, although midstream materials are still impacted by lithium carbonate depreciation [10][11] Solid-State Battery Developments - Solid-state battery technology is gaining focus, with the consensus at the second China All-Solid-State Battery Innovation Development Summit indicating that sulfide solid electrolytes combined with high-nickel ternary cathodes and silicon-carbon anodes are the mainstream path [11][12] - Short-term advancements in semi-solid and all-solid-state battery samples are expected to catalyze growth, while long-term applications like eVTOL are anticipated to create significant demand for high-energy-density batteries [11][12] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks to watch include CATL (300750, Buy), Shengtai Technology (001301, Not Rated), Keda Li (002850, Not Rated), Yiwei Lithium Energy (300014, Not Rated), and others in the solid-state battery and charging infrastructure sectors [12]