食品饮料行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 白酒核心单品停货稳价，啤酒 3 月低基数 下旺季行情可期 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 推荐板块及个股：白酒：优先布局基本面相对强势，未来 1-2 年仍有行业领先成长势能的 白酒，推荐今世缘(603369，买入)、山西汾酒(600809，买入)、迎驾贡酒(603198，买 入)。同时，看好投资反转逻辑，建议布局深蹲起跳，具备估值折价反转与业绩预期反转 的双弹性标的，推荐高端酒中泸州老窖(000568，买入)，全国性次高端酒中 水井坊 (600779，买入)。啤酒：推荐 U8 强势成长、国改盈利提升的燕京啤酒(000729，买入)； 受益去库后低基数与明年餐饮链复苏，高管迎换届期或带来潜在改革动力的青岛啤酒 (600600，买入)；市场预期低、更受益现饮渠道复苏的重庆啤酒(600132，买入)。乳制 品：重点关注伊利股份(600887，买入)，若奶价周期反转，有望迎来利润、估值双增， 空间可观。 风险提示 消费复苏进度不及预期、区域经济增速放缓、食品安全事件风险。 国家/地区 中国 行业 食品饮料行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 04 日 看好（维持） 叶书怀 y ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 186.3 HKD (171.8 CNY) based on a projected adjusted PS of 2.4x for 2025 [3][4]. Core Insights - The performance of the game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" Season 6 has exceeded expectations, which is expected to continue driving high growth in gaming revenue. Additionally, improvements in advertising supply-side traffic and user demographics are anticipated to enhance monetization capabilities [3][6]. - The total revenue for Q4 2024 reached 77.3 billion CNY, representing a year-over-year increase of 21.82% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 5.87%. The growth was primarily driven by advertising and gaming businesses [6][7]. - The company expects revenues for 2024 to be 26.83 billion CNY, with projections of 30.23 billion CNY and 32.44 billion CNY for 2025 and 2026, respectively [3][4]. Financial Summary - The company reported a total revenue of 21,899 million CNY in 2022, with a projected increase to 22,528 million CNY in 2023 and further growth to 26,832 million CNY in 2024 [4][11]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 32.70% in 2024 to 40.06% by 2026, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [4][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to turn positive in 2025, reaching 848 million CNY, with an EPS of 2.01 CNY [4][11]. Revenue Breakdown - Advertising revenue for Q4 2024 was 23.9 billion CNY, up 24% year-over-year, driven by product optimization and increased advertising efficiency [6][7]. - Gaming revenue for Q4 2024 reached 18.0 billion CNY, a significant increase of 79% year-over-year, largely due to the success of "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" [6][7]. - Live streaming and value-added services (VAS) generated 30.8 billion CNY in Q4 2024, reflecting an 8% year-over-year growth [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 186.3 HKD (171.8 CNY) based on a projected adjusted PS of 2.4x for 2025 [3][4]. Core Insights - The performance of the game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" Season 6 has exceeded expectations, which is expected to continue driving high growth in gaming revenue. Additionally, improvements in advertising supply-side traffic and user demographics are anticipated to enhance monetization capabilities [3][6]. - The company's total revenue for Q4 2024 reached 77.3 billion CNY, representing a year-over-year increase of 21.82% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 5.87%. The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 36%, up 9.9 percentage points year-over-year [6][7]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are as follows: 26.832 billion CNY in 2024, 30.230 billion CNY in 2025, and 32.444 billion CNY in 2026, with respective growth rates of 19.10%, 12.67%, and 7.33% [4][11]. - The company expects a Non-GAAP net profit of 4.53 billion CNY for Q4 2024, a significant recovery from a net loss of 5.6 billion CNY in the same period last year [6][7]. Revenue Breakdown - Advertising revenue for Q4 2024 was 23.9 billion CNY, up 24% year-over-year, driven by product optimization and increased advertising efficiency. The daily active users (DAU) reached 103 million, with a DAU/MAU ratio of 30.29% [6][7]. - Gaming revenue for Q4 2024 was 18.0 billion CNY, a 79% increase year-over-year, primarily due to the contribution from "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" [6][7]. Cost and Profitability - The company's operating expenses for Q4 2024 included sales expenses of 12.37 billion CNY, management expenses of 5.06 billion CNY, and R&D expenses of 9.19 billion CNY, with R&D expenses decreasing by 30.74% year-over-year [6][7]. - The projected operating profit for 2025 is expected to be 785 million CNY, with a significant turnaround from the previous year's loss of 1.344 billion CNY [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry in China [4] Core Viewpoints - The total land acquisition amount of the top 100 real estate companies in January-February 2025 achieved double-digit growth, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [37] - New home sales in 44 major cities increased by 42.54% compared to the previous week, while second-hand home sales rose by 23.19%, suggesting a positive trend in the housing market [14] - The average premium rate for land transactions in 36 major cities decreased to 19.8%, reflecting a more cautious bidding environment [29] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The real estate sector index outperformed both the CSI 300 index and the ChiNext index, with a relative return of 4.6% compared to the CSI 300 index, which saw a weekly decline of 2.2% [7][10] - In the ninth week, the real estate index closed at 2327.29, with a weekly increase of 2.4% [10][13] Policy Developments - National policies include the expansion of support for urban village renovation and adjustments to housing loan policies in various cities, such as lowering the down payment ratio for second homes in Tianjin to 20% [12][16] - Local policies in Beijing and other cities are aimed at stimulating the housing market, including the introduction of new residential land plots [12][16] Sales and Inventory Data - In the ninth week, new home sales in 44 major cities reached 23,000 units, while second-hand home sales totaled 22,000 units, indicating a significant increase in market activity [14][18] - The inventory of new homes in 18 major cities increased to 870,000 units, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 21.1 months, reflecting a slight increase in inventory levels [18] Company Announcements - Key companies such as Financial Street and Vanke A have made announcements regarding debt financing and related transactions, indicating ongoing financial activities within the sector [34][36] - The top 100 real estate companies reported a total sales amount of 198.1 billion yuan in February, with a year-on-year decline of 0.4% [37] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares of Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou, while suggesting to pay attention to companies like China Resources Land and Yuexiu Property [37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, particularly highlighting companies such as Ningde Times (300750) and Wanma Co., Ltd. (002276) [8][13]. Core Insights - The demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China is expected to continue its upward trend, with sales projected to reach 12.865 million units in 2024, representing a 35% year-on-year increase. The installed capacity of power batteries is anticipated to be 548.4 GWh, marking a 41% increase [11][12]. - The overall profitability of the industry is showing signs of stabilization and slight improvement, with upstream lithium resources and downstream batteries recovering significantly. However, midstream materials are still affected by the depreciation of lithium carbonate [11][12]. - The solid-state battery technology is gaining traction, with significant advancements expected in the near future. The focus is on sulfide solid electrolytes paired with high-nickel ternary cathodes and silicon-carbon anodes [12][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the ongoing road tests of solid-state batteries by Mercedes-Benz, aiming for a range exceeding 600 miles (approximately 965.61 km) [15][16]. - The second-generation Kirin battery from Ningde Times is being installed in the Xiaomi SU7 Ultra, showcasing high discharge and charge rates [17]. Price Tracking of Battery Materials - Lithium carbonate is priced at 75,000 CNY/ton, showing a decrease of 1.25% from the previous week. Meanwhile, cobalt products have seen price increases, with electrolytic cobalt at 184,000 CNY/ton, up 13.23% [8][37]. - The report provides a comprehensive price tracking table for various battery materials, indicating fluctuations in prices across different categories [37]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Ningde Times (300750), Shangtai Technology (001301), and Yihua Energy (300014) for potential investment opportunities [13][29].

新能源汽车产业链行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 奔驰固态电池展开路试，龙蟠科技子公司 获 LGES 增资 核心观点 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 看好（维持） 本周看点 锂电材料价格 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 ⚫ 政策变化风险；电动车销量不达预期风险；原材料价格波动，盈利变化风险；产能 投放加快，过剩引发行业竞争风险。 国家/地区 中国 行业 新能源汽车产业链行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 04 日 | 李梦强 | limengqiang@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517100003 | | 杨雨浓 | yangyunong@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524090005 | | 朱洪羽 | zhuhongyu@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860525010001 | | 固态电池技术路线聚焦，龙头引领量产进 | 2025-02-25 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the real estate industry in China [4] Core Viewpoints - The top 100 real estate companies in China saw a double-digit growth in land acquisition in January and February 2025, indicating a recovery trend in the market [2][37] - New home sales increased significantly in the 9th week of 2025, with 23,000 units sold across 44 major cities, a 42.54% increase from the previous week [14] - The report anticipates a potential market recovery in March 2025, particularly in core cities, driven by improved supply and demand dynamics [37] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The real estate sector index outperformed both the CSI 300 index and the ChiNext index, with a relative return of 4.6% compared to the CSI 300 index's decline of 2.2% [7][10] - The real estate index closed at 2327.29, reflecting a weekly increase of 2.4% [10][13] Policy Developments - National policies include the expansion of support for urban village renovations and adjustments to housing loan policies in various cities, such as lowering down payment ratios [12][16] - Local policies in cities like Beijing and Tianjin aim to stimulate the housing market through land supply and financial incentives [12][16] Sales and Inventory Data - In the 9th week, new home sales rose to 23,000 units, while second-hand home sales reached 22,000 units, marking increases of 42.54% and 23.19% respectively from the previous week [14][18] - The inventory of new homes in 18 major cities increased to 870,000 units, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 21.1 months [18] Land Market Activity - The land market showed increased activity, with 43 plots sold across 36 major cities, and land transfer fees rising to 36.515 billion yuan, an increase of 9.966 billion yuan from the previous week [22][29] - The average premium rate for land transactions decreased to 19.8%, down 13.7% from the previous week [29] Company Announcements - Key companies such as Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou have been highlighted for their strong performance and strategic land acquisitions [37] - The report recommends buying shares in Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou, while suggesting to pay attention to other major players in the market [37]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 124.57 HKD based on a 2025 PE valuation of 40 times, reflecting a 30% premium over comparable companies [2][5]. Core Insights - The company has established itself as a leading brand in the Chinese trendy toy market, transitioning from an exploratory phase to a diversified development stage since its founding in 2010 [7][14]. - The trendy toy industry in China is experiencing robust growth, with a market size reaching 352 billion CNY in 2022 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28% from 2015 to 2022 [30][32]. - The company's revenue and net profit have shown significant growth, with a projected net profit of 25.68 billion CNY in 2024, 38.58 billion CNY in 2025, and 50.37 billion CNY in 2026 [2][4]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 25.68 billion CNY in 2024, 38.58 billion CNY in 2025, and 50.37 billion CNY in 2026, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 1.91 CNY, 2.87 CNY, and 3.75 CNY respectively [2][4]. - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 6,301 million CNY in 2023 to 21,050 million CNY in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 36.5% from 2023 to 2026 [4][20]. Company Overview - The company has a strong competitive edge in IP (intellectual property) development, with its artist IP products accounting for 77% of total revenue in 2023, and a CAGR of 72% from 2018 to 2023 [20][41]. - The company has diversified its sales channels, with offline retail stores and online channels contributing 48% and 30% of revenue respectively in 2023 [22][24]. - The company has successfully expanded its international presence, with overseas revenue accounting for 30% of total income as of 2024 [12][20]. Market Position - The trendy toy market in China is relatively fragmented, with the top five companies holding only 24% of the market share, while the company itself has increased its market share to 12% in 2022, up from 9% in 2019 [35][36]. - The global trendy toy market is projected to grow from nearly 20 billion USD in 2019 to 41.8 billion USD by 2024, indicating a CAGR of 16% [30][32]. Operational Efficiency - The company has improved its profitability metrics, with gross margin and net profit margin increasing by 3.8 percentage points and 6.9 percentage points respectively in 2023 [25][26]. - The company has maintained a low store closure rate, indicating strong operational stability [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 124.57, reflecting a 30% premium over the estimated PE ratio of 40 times for 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company has established itself as a leading brand in China's trendy toy market, with significant growth potential in international markets [1][7]. - The company's revenue and net profit have shown impressive growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 65% and 61% respectively from 2018 to 2023 [19][20]. - The company’s artist IP products are the main revenue driver, contributing approximately 77% of total revenue in 2023 [20][21]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecasted net profits for the company from 2024 to 2026 are expected to be CNY 25.68 billion, CNY 38.58 billion, and CNY 50.37 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of CNY 1.91, CNY 2.87, and CNY 3.75 [2][4]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of CNY 11.77 billion, CNY 16.46 billion, and CNY 21.05 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 86.7%, 39.9%, and 27.9% [4][20]. Company Overview - The company has transitioned through three phases since its establishment in 2010: exploration, rapid growth, and diversification [14][15]. - The company has a strong market position in the trendy toy industry, with a market share of approximately 12% in 2022, up from 9% in 2019 [35][36]. Industry Analysis - The trendy toy market in China has been growing rapidly, with a retail market size of CNY 352 billion in 2022 and a CAGR of 28% from 2015 to 2022 [30][32]. - The global trendy toy market is expected to reach USD 41.8 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 16% from 2019 to 2024 [30][32]. Sales Channels - The company’s main sales channels include offline retail stores, online platforms, and innovative sales methods such as robot stores, contributing 48%, 30%, and 10% to total revenue respectively in 2023 [22][24]. - The company has been expanding its international presence, with overseas revenue accounting for 30% of total income as of 2024 [12][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the textile and apparel industry [5] Core Insights - The high-end outdoor sports market remains vibrant both domestically and internationally, with a notable shift in China's consumer market towards a more competitive landscape where strong brands outperform [4][25] - The report highlights the competitive advantages and moats of leading brands, recommending investments in Anta Sports (02020, Buy), Li Ning (02331, Buy), and Xtep International (01368, Buy), while suggesting to pay attention to Biyinlefen (002832, Buy) and Baoxini (002154, Buy) [4][25] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Amer Sports reported a revenue of $5.183 billion for 2024, an 18% year-on-year increase, exceeding the guidance of 16-17% [7][8] - The adjusted operating profit margin for 2024 was 11.1%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, also above the guidance of 10.5-11% [7][8] - In Q4 2024, revenue reached $1.636 billion, a 23% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 56.1%, up 3.7 percentage points [9][19] Segment Performance - Functional apparel drove overall revenue growth in Q4 2024, with revenue of $745 million, a 33% increase year-on-year [12][14] - Outdoor apparel revenue was $594 million, up 13% year-on-year, primarily driven by Salomon brand [12][14] - Revenue from ball sports and racquet sports reached $296 million, a 22% increase year-on-year [13][14] Regional Insights - The Greater China region remains a key growth engine, with Q4 revenue increasing by 54% year-on-year, followed by the Asia-Pacific region at 52% [16][19] - The Americas and EMEA regions saw revenue growth of 15% and 8% respectively [16][19] Future Guidance - For 2025, Amer Sports projects a revenue growth rate of 13-15%, with specific guidance for functional apparel at 20%, outdoor apparel in the low double digits, and ball sports in the low to mid double digits [21][22] - The company anticipates an operating profit margin of 11.5%-12% for 2025, leaning towards the lower end of the range due to macro uncertainties [21][22] Store Expansion Plans - Amer Sports plans to open 200 stores for the Arc'teryx brand in North America, 75-100 in Europe, 75-100 in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China), and 150-200 in China by 2025 [24][22]