目 录 一、成本端：原材料涨跌互现，海运指数上涨 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 二、生产端：2024年高水平收官，节后开工较缓恢复 三、需求端：国内季节性回调，海外需求延续修复 四、行业重要新闻 五、月度总结及展望 六、风险提示 1月主要原材料价格涨跌互现 ● 1月轮胎上游原材料价格：2025年1月丁二烯均价12028.26元/吨，环比上涨15.42%，同比上涨36.08%；天然橡胶均价 2038.95美元/吨，环比下降1.82%，同比上涨31.83%；丁苯橡胶均价15223.91元/吨，环比上涨2.66%，同比上涨 25.28%；炭黑均价6829.03元/吨，环比减少6.24%，同比减少10.24%；锦纶帘子布均价20500.00元/吨，环比减少 1.74%，同比减少7.87%。 2024年高景气收官，节后开工恢复性提升 轮胎行业月报 证券分析师：吴骏燕 执业证书编号：S0630517120001 证券分析师：张晶磊 执业证书编号：S0630524090001 证券分析师：谢建斌 执业证书编号：S0630522020001 联系方式： ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the food and beverage industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has shown a positive market performance, with a 2.34% increase last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.15 percentage points, ranking 8th among 31 sectors [7][10]. - The report highlights a recovery in market expectations, particularly in the liquor segment, with a focus on channel transformation and strategic inventory management by leading companies [6][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-end liquor and regional leaders in the liquor market, suggesting a structural growth opportunity despite overall industry adjustments [7][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance was strong, with notable gains in pre-processed foods and liquor, which rose by 3.40% and 3.13% respectively [10]. - Top-performing stocks included Yiming Food (+12.67%), Weizhi Flavor (+12.61%), and Shanxi Fenjiu (+9.27%) [10]. 2. Price Trends - The report provides detailed pricing for key liquor products, noting that the price of Moutai (both original and scattered) has shown slight fluctuations, with the original box price at 2255 yuan and scattered price at 2225 yuan as of February 16, 2024 [19]. - Beer production in December reached 2.41 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 12.20%, while wine production saw a significant decline of 28.60% [25]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a transformation, with a projected production capacity of 650,000 kiloliters for sauce-flavored liquor in 2024, a 13.33% decrease from the previous year, but with expected sales revenue of 240 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.35% growth [52]. - New national standards for beer and spirits are set to be implemented in 2026, which may impact production practices and quality requirements [52]. 4. Core Company Developments - The report mentions specific company actions, such as Dayan Co. planning to distribute a cash dividend of 0.25 yuan per share, amounting to 24.3 million yuan, which represents 44.64% of its net profit for the third quarter of 2024 [53].

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年02月18日 超配 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 联系人 吴康辉 wkh@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈涛 cht@longone.com.cn -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-02 2024-04 2024-06 2024-08 2024-10 2024-12 食品饮料(申万) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 3.头部酒企稳中求进，春节动销有序 推 进 — — 食 品 饮 料 行 业 周 报 （2024/1/6-2025/1/12） [Table_NewTitle 市场预期回暖，静待需求修复 ] ——食品饮料行业周报（2024/2/10-2025/2/16） [table_main] 投资要点： 行 业 研 究 品 饮 料 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 业 周 报 食 [table_invest] 1.春节动销符合预期，关注渠 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年02月17日 4 标配 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 于卓楠 S0630524100001 yzn@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王珏人 S0630523100001 wjr@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -21% -10% 1% 12% 23% 34% 45% 24-02 24-04 24-06 24-08 申万行业指数:电力设备(0763) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.光伏节后产业链价格维稳，多地将 海风项目纳入重点建设清单——新 能源电力行业周报（ 2025/02/05- 2025/02/07） 2.以旧换新效果显著，储能景气度持 续 — — 电 池 及 储 能 行 业 周 报 （2025/01/13-2025/01/19） 3.光伏硅片排产有望上行，关注深远 海海风发展进程——新能源电力行 业周报（2025/01/13-2025/01/17） [T ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [12]. Core Insights - In January 2025, social financing (社融) significantly exceeded expectations, driven by increased liquidity demand from enterprises due to the timing of the Spring Festival and a slowdown in the issuance of government bonds [9][10]. - The report highlights a strong performance in corporate credit, with a record increase in RMB loans amounting to 5.13 trillion yuan, marking a significant improvement compared to the weak performance in Q4 2024 [9][10]. - The report suggests that the pressure for credit "opening" in February and March 2025 has eased due to the strong social financing data from January [9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the upcoming political meetings for signals regarding monetary policy and fiscal deficit targets, which will clarify the path for policy coordination [7]. Summary by Sections Credit Analysis - Corporate credit showed significant growth in short-term loans, bill financing, and medium to long-term loans, attributed to increased liquidity needs during the Spring Festival [7]. - Personal loans, however, were weaker compared to January 2024, particularly short-term loans, indicating a slowdown in growth for operational loans [7]. - Government bond issuance has shown a remarkable year-on-year performance, reflecting substantial fiscal support, but the pace has slowed compared to the previous quarter [7]. Deposit Trends - The regulation of interbank deposit pricing continues to squeeze non-bank deposits, leading to a decrease of 1.11 trillion yuan in non-bank deposits [7]. - The report notes that the decrease in non-financial corporate deposits is consistent with seasonal patterns observed in previous years, primarily due to significant expenditures during the Spring Festival [7]. Interest Rate Trends - The average weighted loan interest rate decreased by 39 basis points to 3.28% in Q4 2024, aligning with the downward trend of benchmark rates [10]. - The report indicates that the decline in deposit rates will alleviate concerns regarding bank interest margins, suggesting that the pressure on margins in 2025 will be less severe than in 2024 [10]. Investment Focus - The report recommends focusing on stable dividends and recovery potential, particularly for leading small and medium-sized banks, as macroeconomic recovery and supportive monetary and fiscal policies are expected to mitigate risks in the banking sector [11].

Group 1: Company Overview - Anhui Heli (600761) has deepened its cooperation with Huawei, leading the technological upgrade in the smart logistics sector [5][6] - Anhui Heli is the leading company in the domestic forklift industry, with core technologies in electric forklifts, hydraulic systems, and control systems [6] - The collaboration aims to enhance digital transformation, smart logistics, artificial intelligence, and talent development [5][6] Group 2: Industry Insights - The forklift industry is transitioning towards automation and unmanned operations, with a significant increase in sales of mobile robots [7] - In 2023, domestic sales of mobile robots reached 19,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 46.6% [7] - The partnership between Anhui Heli and Huawei is expected to set a precedent for traditional manufacturing and technology integration, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape in smart logistics [6] Group 3: Financial Projections - Anhui Heli's projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.415 billion, 1.587 billion, and 1.866 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12.06, 10.75, and 9.15 times [7] - The company is advancing strategies in globalization, electrification, intelligence, and automation, with plans for convertible bond projects to gradually come online [7] Group 4: Fluorochemical Industry - The fluorochemical sector is experiencing a positive outlook, with refrigerant prices expected to rise due to strong demand from the air conditioning market [8][10] - As of January 27, 2024, prices for refrigerants R32, R125, and R134a increased by 1.16%, 2.38%, and 3.53% respectively compared to the end of December [9] - The first quarter of 2025 is anticipated to see a continued upward trend in refrigerant prices, supported by robust demand from the air conditioning and refrigeration sectors [10]

谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈芯楠 cxn@longone.com.cn 联系人 李嘉豪 lijiah@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 财经要闻 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2025年02月17日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250217 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] [Table_Authors] ➢ 1.安徽合力（600761）：母公司与华为合作深入，引领智能物流领域技术升级——公司简 评报告 ➢ 2.氟化工企业业绩预增，制冷剂维持高景气——氟化工行业月报 ➢ 1.1月金融数据超预期 ➢ 2.央行：国库现金定存中标利率下降16个基点 ➢ 3.特朗普宣布汽车进口关税计划或于4月2日生效 ➢ 4.美国1月零售销售环比降0.9%，预期降0.1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic forklift manufacturer and is advancing into global markets, focusing on digital transformation and intelligent logistics through a partnership with Huawei [7] - The collaboration with Huawei aims to enhance technological capabilities in areas such as artificial intelligence and cloud computing, which will benefit the company's logistics equipment and smart logistics solutions [7] - The company is positioned to capitalize on the growing trend of automation in the forklift industry, with a significant increase in sales of unmanned mobile robots [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 17,470.51 million yuan in 2023 to 22,888.21 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.72% [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 1,278.13 million yuan in 2023 to 1,865.54 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 12.15% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.43 yuan in 2023 to 2.09 yuan in 2026, indicating strong profitability growth [6] Strategic Initiatives - The company is pursuing a comprehensive strategy that includes globalization, electrification, intelligence, and automation, with plans for convertible bond projects to be gradually put into production [7] - The partnership with Huawei is expected to set a precedent for traditional manufacturing and technology integration, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape in the logistics sector [7] - The company aims to become a technology leader in the industry by developing unmanned intelligent forklifts and providing comprehensive smart logistics solutions [7]

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年02月14日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250214 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 任晓帆 S0630522070001 [table_main] 重点推荐 财经要闻 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 rxf@longone.com.cn [Table_Report] ➢ 1. 美国通胀反弹，降息预期推迟——海外观察：2025年1月美国CPI ➢ 2. 氟化工企业业绩预增，制冷剂维持高景气——氟化工行业月报 ➢ 3. 挖机开年销量受假期影响仍维持增长，全年有望复苏提速——机械设备行业简评 ➢ 1.国家发改委：2025年要加大宏观政策逆周期调节，全方位扩大国内需求。 ➢ 2.央行2024年四季度货币政策执行报告：根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况， 择机调整优化政策力度和节奏。 ➢ 3.美国总统特朗普签署备忘录，将引入对等关税。 ➢ 4.美国1月PPI同比升3.5%，预期升3.2%1. 美国1月CPI超预期。 | 1.1. 美国通胀反弹 ...

氟化工企业业绩预增，制冷剂维持高景气 氟化工行业月报 证券分析师：张晶磊 执业证书编号：S0630524090001 证券分析师：吴骏燕 执业证书编号：S0630517120001 证券分析师：谢建斌 执业证书编号：S0630522020001 2025年2月13日 | | | 一、核心观点 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 二、制冷剂跟踪 三、含氟聚合物 四、业绩预告 五、投资建议 六、风险提示 核心观点 ● 风险提示：制冷剂配额政策变化的风险；原材料价格变化的风险；需求不及预期的风险。 3 ● 1月制冷剂价格价差上行，含氟聚合物价格保持低位运行。截至2024年1月27日，根据百川盈孚数据，三代制冷剂R32、R125、R134a产品 价格分别为43500元/吨、43000元/吨和44000元/吨，较12月底分别上涨1.16%、2.38%、3.53%。R22价格为33000元/吨，较上月环比持 平。受产能快速提升、需求增速下滑影响，2024年我国PTFE、PVDF、HFP价格均保持低位运行。 ● 2 0 2 5年度第一季度主流空调厂商长协订 ...