证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 07 07 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 未来四周很关键 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】政策半月观—未来四周很关键——20250706 【宏观】美国 6 月非农与 ADP 就业为何大幅背离？——20250704 【策略】中报业绩线索的交易思路（二）——20250706 【金融工程】市场未来有望继续上行——20250706 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：增长指标超预期，宏观分数上行—— 20250705 【固定收益】压缩利差还是突破关键点位？——20250706 【固定收益】资金更为宽松，杠杆再度回升——流动性和机构行为跟踪 ——20250705 【固定收益】超长信用债还有空间吗？——20250704 【银行】本周聚焦—5 月重点省市信贷投放情况如何？——20250706 【商贸零售】苏美达（600710.SH）-双链驱动，开启外贸新篇章—— 20250706 【建筑装饰】中国能建（601868.SH）-能源及算力基础设施龙头，求新 求变蓄势向上——20250704 【电力】高温炙烤创纪录，电力配置正当时——20250706 【通信】光模块的壁垒在哪里？— ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [9]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical index increased by 3.64% during the week of June 30 to July 4, outperforming both the ChiNext and CSI 300 indices, indicating a positive market sentiment towards innovative drugs and brain-computer interface technologies [14][15]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of PD-1 Plus drugs, which are seen as a driving force in the current market recovery, supported by significant business development (BD) deals and a favorable industry trend [2][15]. - The outlook for 2025 remains optimistic, focusing on innovative drugs, new technologies, and the restructuring of supply chains [3][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a rebound, with innovative drugs and brain-computer interfaces leading the charge. The report highlights the importance of PD-1 Plus drugs in this recovery [14][15]. 2. Innovative Drug Selection - PD-1 Plus drugs are gaining traction, with significant overseas collaborations and clinical trial advancements. The report notes that companies like Innovent Biologics and BeiGene are at the forefront of this trend [20][21]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with promising PD-1/IL-2 combinations and those that have successfully entered international markets [23]. 3. Investment Strategies - The report outlines a strategy focusing on core stocks in the innovative drug space, particularly those with strong growth potential and upcoming clinical data releases [3][17]. - Key companies to watch include Innovent Biologics, Zai Lab, and others involved in PD-1 Plus and related technologies [4][17]. 4. Market Performance - The report provides a comparative analysis of the performance of various indices, noting that the innovative drug index has outperformed the broader pharmaceutical index and the CSI 300 index since the beginning of 2025 [41][42]. - The report also highlights the performance of specific stocks within the innovative drug sector, indicating a positive trend for companies like Zai Lab and BeiGene [45]. 5. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued optimism in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly around innovative drugs and new technologies such as AI in healthcare and rehabilitation robotics [3][16]. - The focus will be on identifying high-growth opportunities in the innovative drug space and leveraging the ongoing restructuring of supply chains [3][19].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [5] Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to lead to a recovery in the sub-sectors of the basic chemical industry [2] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has caused fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent crude oil returning to the range of $60-70 per barrel [1] - The agricultural chemical sector is anticipated to see a recovery in demand due to the "anti-involution" policy and environmental safety regulations [3] Summary by Sections Oil and Gas Sector - Brent crude oil prices peaked at $78.85 per barrel during the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict but have since returned to $68.30 per barrel as of July 4, indicating a reversion to fundamental pricing [1] - Global oil demand is projected to increase by 720,000 barrels per day according to IEA, while OPEC anticipates a supply increase of 1.3 million barrels per day, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [1] Basic Chemical Sector - The central government has emphasized the need to eliminate low-price disorderly competition, which is expected to accelerate the exit of outdated production capacity in the chemical sector [2] - The growth rate of ongoing projects in the basic chemical sector is projected to fluctuate, with a decline expected in Q1 2025 [2] Agricultural Chemical Sector - China's total pesticide production is expected to increase by 24% in 2024, with significant growth in herbicides and insecticides [3] - Recent incidents have impacted the supply of certain products, leading to price increases of 87% and 35% for specific chemicals [3] - The ongoing litigation involving Bayer and glyphosate may significantly affect the supply and pricing of glyphosate and its alternatives [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Anta Sports, Bosideng, and Xtep International, among others [10]. Core Insights - The overall performance of the sportswear sector is stable, with a forecasted slowdown in revenue growth for Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025 due to fluctuations in the consumer environment [1][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and quality, anticipating performance recovery and valuation increases in 2025 [4]. - The jewelry sector is experiencing significant disparities in performance among companies, influenced by high gold prices and varying consumer demand for gold jewelry [3][29]. Summary by Sections Sportswear Sector - The sportswear companies are expected to maintain a healthy inventory turnover ratio of around 5 as of the end of Q2 2025, despite a forecasted revenue growth slowdown [1][15]. - Anta Sports is projected to achieve over 10% revenue growth in H1 2025, while Li Ning's revenue is expected to remain flat with a 20% decline in net profit [1][18]. - Xtep International is anticipated to see a 5% revenue growth and a 10% increase in net profit for H1 2025 [1][19]. - 361 Degrees is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 10% to 15% and a similar increase in net profit for H1 2025 [1][19]. A-Share Brand Apparel - The A-share brand apparel sector is experiencing stable terminal retail performance, but individual company performance is diverging [2][20]. - Companies like Hailan Home are expected to see a revenue growth of 0% to 5% in Q2 2025, while Steady Medical is projected to grow by 15% to 25% [2][24]. - The report indicates that companies with healthy terminal performance and effective cost management may see year-on-year growth, while those struggling with revenue scale may face pressure [2][20]. Jewelry Sector - The jewelry sector is benefiting from rising gold prices, with retail sales of gold and silver jewelry expected to grow by 12.3% year-on-year in 2025 [3][29]. - Companies like Chow Tai Fook and Chao Hong Ji are highlighted for their strong product differentiation and market competitiveness, with Chow Tai Fook expected to see a 10% increase in operating profit year-on-year [7][29]. - However, companies like Lao Feng Xiang and Zhou Da Sheng are projected to experience revenue declines of 20% to 10% and 15% to 5%, respectively, due to fluctuating consumer demand [3][29]. Apparel Manufacturing - The apparel manufacturing sector is expected to see stable output in finished garments, while upstream textile manufacturing orders are affected by pessimistic expectations [3][6]. - Shenzhou International is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 10% to 15% in H1 2025, while Wei Xing Co. is expected to see a decline in both revenue and net profit by 10% to 15% [3][6]. - The report suggests that leading companies with integrated and international supply chains are likely to outperform the industry in the medium to long term [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the construction materials sector, with specific buy and hold recommendations for various companies [9][12]. Core Viewpoints - The construction materials sector has shown resilience, with a 3.50% increase in the sector index from June 30 to July 4, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.33% [12]. - The central government's focus on stabilizing the real estate market and promoting high-quality development is expected to positively impact demand for construction materials [2][12]. - The cement industry is experiencing a supply-side reform, with increased efforts to reduce overcapacity and stabilize prices [2][3]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of July 4, 2025, the national cement price index is 350.38 CNY/ton, down 1.32% week-on-week, with a total cement output of 2.76 million tons, also down 1.67% [3][17]. - The construction sector remains a key demand driver for cement, but short-term growth is constrained by weather and funding issues [17]. - The report highlights a significant year-on-year decline of 26.01% in cement output for housing construction, indicating a challenging market environment [6][17]. Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass is 1201.02 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.13% from the previous week, while inventory levels have decreased slightly [33]. - Demand remains under pressure, and the report anticipates challenges in maintaining sales momentum due to high production capacity and ongoing order shortages [33][34]. Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The fiberglass market is experiencing stable pricing, with no significant changes in supply or demand noted in the short term [7]. - The report indicates that demand for wind power fiberglass is relatively strong, providing some support to the market [7]. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials segment is benefiting from improved second-hand housing transactions and consumption stimulus policies, with a recommendation to focus on companies like Beixin Building Materials and Weixing New Materials [2][9]. Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market is seeing a gradual recovery in downstream demand, with production costs remaining high and profit margins under pressure [8].

- Model Name: CSI 500 Enhanced Portfolio; Model Construction Idea: The model aims to outperform the CSI 500 index by selecting stocks with higher expected returns based on quantitative strategies[2][58] - Model Construction Process: The model uses a quantitative strategy to select stocks from the CSI 500 index. The portfolio's performance is evaluated based on its excess return over the CSI 500 index. The specific construction process involves selecting stocks with higher expected returns and adjusting the portfolio weights accordingly[58][61] - Model Evaluation: The model has shown a significant excess return over the CSI 500 index, indicating its effectiveness in enhancing returns[58][61] - Model Name: CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio; Model Construction Idea: The model aims to outperform the CSI 300 index by selecting stocks with higher expected returns based on quantitative strategies[2][65] - Model Construction Process: The model uses a quantitative strategy to select stocks from the CSI 300 index. The portfolio's performance is evaluated based on its excess return over the CSI 300 index. The specific construction process involves selecting stocks with higher expected returns and adjusting the portfolio weights accordingly[65][66] - Model Evaluation: The model has shown a significant excess return over the CSI 300 index, indicating its effectiveness in enhancing returns[65][66] - Factor Name: Value Factor; Factor Construction Idea: The value factor aims to capture the excess returns of stocks that are undervalued relative to their fundamentals[2][70] - Factor Construction Process: The value factor is constructed by ranking stocks based on their valuation ratios, such as price-to-book (P/B) and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios. Stocks with lower valuation ratios are considered undervalued and are given higher weights in the factor portfolio[70][76] - Factor Evaluation: The value factor has shown high excess returns, indicating its effectiveness in capturing the returns of undervalued stocks[70][76] - Factor Name: Residual Volatility Factor; Factor Construction Idea: The residual volatility factor aims to capture the excess returns of stocks with lower idiosyncratic risk[2][70] - Factor Construction Process: The residual volatility factor is constructed by ranking stocks based on their residual volatility, which is the volatility of the stock's returns unexplained by market movements. Stocks with lower residual volatility are given higher weights in the factor portfolio[70][76] - Factor Evaluation: The residual volatility factor has shown high excess returns, indicating its effectiveness in capturing the returns of low-risk stocks[70][76] - Factor Name: Non-linear Size Factor; Factor Construction Idea: The non-linear size factor aims to capture the excess returns of stocks with specific size characteristics that are not linearly related to market capitalization[2][70] - Factor Construction Process: The non-linear size factor is constructed by ranking stocks based on their non-linear size characteristics, which may include measures such as the square or cube of market capitalization. Stocks with specific size characteristics are given higher weights in the factor portfolio[70][76] - Factor Evaluation: The non-linear size factor has shown significant negative excess returns, indicating its ineffectiveness in capturing the returns of stocks with specific size characteristics[70][76] Model Backtest Results - CSI 500 Enhanced Portfolio, Excess Return: 46.94%, Maximum Drawdown: -4.99%[58][61] - CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio, Excess Return: 31.61%, Maximum Drawdown: -5.86%[65][66] Factor Backtest Results - Value Factor, Excess Return: High[70][76] - Residual Volatility Factor, Excess Return: High[70][76] - Non-linear Size Factor, Excess Return: Significant Negative[70][76]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the lithium sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [6]. Core Insights - The lithium price has shown continuous growth, rising from 59,000 CNY/ton to 64,000 CNY/ton, marking an increase of 8.1% since June 23 [10]. - Supply-side signals indicate a reduction in output from Australian mines, suggesting that the industry is in the later stages of capacity clearance [2]. - Demand remains robust, with significant growth in the lithium battery production and electric vehicle sales, supporting a favorable price transmission for lithium [3]. Supply Summary - Australian lithium mines are signaling reduced output, with production expected to remain flat at 740,000 tons in Q1 2025, down 17% from the previous quarter [2]. - The current pricing has reached a sensitive cost level for Australian producers, leading to operational adjustments and cost-cutting measures [2]. - The low lithium prices have resulted in a squeeze on capital expenditures, potentially leading to a slowdown in supply growth in the future [2]. Demand Summary - The lithium battery industry is experiencing high growth, with domestic battery production reaching 801 GWh in the first half of 2025, a 52% year-on-year increase [26]. - Electric vehicle sales in China reached 5.42 million units in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 32% increase compared to the previous year [26]. - The competitive landscape in the electric vehicle sector is prompting manufacturers to initiate a "de-involution" process to stabilize pricing and improve profitability across the supply chain [27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that companies with low-cost resource supply and diversified non-lithium operations will have a competitive advantage in the current market [4]. - Recommended stocks include Zhongkuang Resources, Yongxing Materials, Salt Lake Co., Tianqi Lithium, and Ganfeng Lithium, which are expected to navigate the industry downturn effectively [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is still strengthening, and the easing of funds is expected to create a short - to - long market trend in July. It is recommended to maintain a duration above the medium level, and the dumbbell strategy is more advantageous. The report believes that the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to fall to 1.4% - 1.5% [6][23] - With the current capital price, short - term interest rates such as certificates of deposit still have room to decline further, and after the short - term interest rates decline, the long - term space will also be opened up [5][18] - The compression of spreads is limited, and to open up the interest rate space, it is necessary to break through the key interest rates to open up the downward space of the overall curve [3][15] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Bond Market Performance - This week, the bond market continued to strengthen, with more obvious compression of short - term and credit spreads. After the quarter - end, although the central bank significantly withdrew funds, the funds were still loose as expected. Short - term interest rates continued to decline, while the key long - term interest rates remained relatively stable [1][9] Spread Compression - After the key - term interest rates dropped to near the key positions, the market mainly compressed various spreads, including the spreads between key and non - key terms of interest - rate bonds, between non - active and active bonds, and between different bond varieties [2][10] Spread Compression Limit - The compression of spreads is limited. As spreads decline, the risk of non - active varieties increases, which will prompt funds to flow back to active varieties. To further lower interest rates, key terms and varieties need to break through key positions [3][15] Fund Situation - The current loose fund situation is expected to continue. On one hand, the demand for funds has slowed down; on the other hand, the central bank's space for withdrawing funds may decrease. Additionally, the release of previously accumulated fiscal deposits will also contribute to the continued loosening of funds [4][17] Interest Rate Trend - If the capital price remains at the current level, short - term interest rates such as certificates of deposit have room to decline further. After the short - term interest rates decline, the long - term interest rate space will also be opened up, driving the key interest rates to break through key positions and bringing down the overall curve [5][18]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 07 06 年 月 日 电力 高温炙烤创纪录，电力配置正当时 本周行情回顾：本周（6.30-7.4）上证指数报收 3472.32 点，上涨 1.40%，沪 深 300 指数报收 3982.20 点，上涨 1.54%。中信电力及公用事业指数报收 2988.40 点，上涨 1.69%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.15pct，位列 30 个中信一级 板块涨跌幅榜第 9 位。 个股方面，电力及公用事业板块上市公司超半数上涨。 本周行业观点： 投资建议：高温席卷全国，迎峰度夏电力负荷攀升，本周创历史新高，迎峰度 夏叠加业绩期催化，建议重视电力板块配置。建议关注季度业绩具备弹性的火 电板块：华能国际、建投能源、华电国际、申能股份、宝新能源；以及火电灵 活性改造龙头：青达环保。推荐关注存量项目占比较高&短期收益确定性更优、 以及中长期更具降本增效优势绿电运营商。推荐布局低估绿电板块，推荐优先 关注低估港股绿电以及风电运营商，建议关注新天绿色能源（H）、中闽能源、 福能股份。把握水核防御，关注随着汛期与雨季到来后来水弹性改善标的，建 议关注长江电力、国投电力、川 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for key companies in the optical module industry, including Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Technology [11]. Core Insights - The optical communication technology iteration is accelerating, with the cycle for 800G and 1.6T modules reduced to 2 years or less, driven by material innovation and process revolution [1][22]. - The evolution of architecture in optical communication focuses on integrating light technology closer to chips, addressing bandwidth, power consumption, and distance limitations [2][23]. - The competitive landscape indicates that leading companies will continue to strengthen their positions, benefiting from early market entry and technological advancements [3][24]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on companies in the computing and optical communication sectors, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Technology, and Tianfu Communication, among others [14][27]. Market Review - The communication sector has seen a decline, with the optical communication index performing relatively well compared to other segments [18][21]. Competitive Landscape - Leading firms in the optical module market are expected to maintain their advantages, with a clear trend of "the strong getting stronger" as they continue to innovate and capture market share [3][24][25]. Technology Evolution - The integration of silicon photonics and other advanced technologies is transforming optical communication from a simple transmission medium to a powerful computational resource [1][22]. - Multiple optical communication solutions, such as LPO, CPO, and OIO, are likely to coexist, allowing companies to tailor their offerings to specific application scenarios [2][23]. Key Companies - The report highlights key companies to watch, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Technology, and Tianfu Communication, as well as upstream component manufacturers like Taicheng Technology and Shijia Photonics [7][8][27].