证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 12 年 月 日 澳华内镜（688212.SH） 海外市场表现亮眼，AQ300 带动高端客户群突破 澳华内镜发布 2024 年年度报告。2024 年实现营业收入 7.50 亿元，同比 增长 10.54%；归母净利润 2101 万元，同比下滑 63.68%；扣非后归母净 利润-629 万元，同比下滑 114.13%。分季度看，2024Q4 实现营业收入 2.49 亿元，同比下滑 0.20%；归母净利润-1629 万元，同比下滑 228.60%； 扣非后归母净利润-2110 万元，同比下滑 392.07%。 观点：海外市场表现靓丽，国内市场受招采活动减少影响短期承压。利润 端表现不及收入端，主要系毛利率下降与期间费用率增加影响。AQ-300 在三级医院装机表现不错，内窥镜设备稳健增长。高度重视研发创新，多 款新产品上市完善产品矩阵，巩固市场竞争力。 海外市场引领增长，国内市场短期承压，利润端表现不及收入端，主要系 毛利率下降与期间费用率增长影响。2024 年公司海外市场收入 1.61 亿元 （同比+42.70%），带动整体业务收入增长；国内 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.44 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decline by 17.7% to 801 million yuan [1][4]. - The competitive landscape in the construction agency industry is intensifying, leading to a decrease in construction fees and profit margins [1][3]. - Despite the challenges, the company retains a market share of 22.1% in new contracts, maintaining its leading position in the construction agency market [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s revenue is projected at 3.44 billion yuan, with commercial construction revenue at 2.75 billion yuan (up 17.3%) and government construction revenue at 626 million yuan (down 20.6%) [1]. - The gross profit margin for commercial construction is expected to be 51.2% (down 1.1 percentage points), while for government construction, it is projected at 40.1% (down 5.1 percentage points), leading to an overall gross margin of 49.6% (down 2.6 percentage points) [1][3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company signed new construction contracts covering an area of 36.5 million square meters in 2024, a 3.4% increase, but the new contract value decreased by 10.1% to 9.32 billion yuan, with a new contract price of 255 yuan per square meter (down 13.1%) [2]. - The company’s project distribution is increasingly focused on first- and second-tier cities, which now account for 58% of new projects [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 60%, with a proposed final dividend of 0.24 yuan per share, totaling 482 million yuan [3][4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.57 billion yuan, 3.65 billion yuan, and 3.59 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 768 million yuan, 812 million yuan, and 866 million yuan [4][5].

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 04 11 年 月 日 量化专题报告 A 股"现金奶牛"策略：解构自由现金流中的 alpha 现金流 Smart Beta 随着现金流指数和 ETF 的相继发布，自由现金流成为近年来市场关注的热 点，历史数据显示高现金流是除红利风格以外能够长期稳健获取绝对收益 的 Smart Beta 因子之一。 现金流选股因子 本文基于四类不同视角的自由现金流刻画，重构了自由现金流收益率因子 FCFP；通过对自由现金流中资本开支因素的进一步拆解，本文构建了资本 开支收益因子 CAPEXP。 2016 年以来，FCFP 因子 IC 均值 3.8%，ICIR 达到 2.41，多头组合年化 超额收益 7.1%；CAPEXP 因子 IC 均值 5.5%，ICIR 达到 2.38，多头组合 年化超额收益 8.6%。 "现金牛"组合 基于自由现金流概念，本文在全 A 和中证 800 指数成分股中分别构建了 "现金牛"精选组合，组合长期绝对收益稳健，相对现金流指数和宽基指 数也均有显著超额收益。 2016 年以来，全 A"现金奶牛"精选组合绝对收益表现优秀，年化收益 21. ...

2024 年公司营收同比+4.2%，归母净利润同比-17.7%。2024 年公司实现 营收 34.4 亿元（+4.2%，同比变化，下同），其中商业代建收入 27.5 亿元 （+17.3%），政府代建收入 6.26 亿元（-20.6%）。公司 2024 年实现归母净利 润 8.01 亿元（-17.7%）。主要由于代建行业竞争加剧，代建费率下行，期内公 司商业代建毛利率为 51.2%（-1.1pct），政府代建毛利率为 40.1%（-5.1pct）， 拖累公司整体毛利率至 49.6%（-2.6pct）。同时，因房地产行业持续调整，公 司委托方销售受到影响，进而影响项目建设速度与公司账款回收的情况，公司 期末合同资产为 13.4 亿元（+51.0%），贸易及其他应收款为 11.2 亿元 （+35.9%）。 公司新拓金额、单价出现一定下滑，区域结构、委托方结构有所优化。2024 年公司新拓代建合约面积 3650 万方（+3.4%），新拓代建项目代建费 93.2 亿 元（-10.1%），新拓单价 255 元/平方米（-13.1%）。虽然新拓金额、单价下 滑，但公司 2024 年新签市占率 22.1%，继续保持代建市场龙 ...

利润持续增长，"焚烧+"运营效率稳步提升 2024 年利润持续增长。公司 2024 年实现营收 118.9 亿元，yoy-5.2%，实现归母 净利润 16.6 亿元，yoy+16.4%。2024Q4 单季度实现营收 31.5 亿元，yoy-11.9%， 实现归母净利润 2.8 亿元，yoy+5.7%。公司净利润同比增长而营业收入同比下降 的主要原因：（1）在手工程订单陆续完工，PPP 工程业务收入规模下降；（2）天然 气销售单价随上游采购气价下降以及售气量微降等影响，使得能源业务收入下降； （3）工业危废处理业务与南海区环卫业务收入下降；（4）济宁项目、排水美佳东 南厂及丹灶金沙扩建项目确认往期收入，一次性确认相关收益；（5）供热量提升带 动收益增长；（6）存量项目收入拓展增量贡献；（7）公司降本增效，运营效率高。 证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 11 年 月 日 瀚蓝环境（600323.SH） 盈利能力显著提升，费用管控合理，应收账款回款加速。2024 年，公司实现综合 毛利率 28.9%（（yoy+3.7pct），主要是运营效率提升、供热带动收益所致。三费合 计比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 15.197 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.325 billion yuan, up 4.1% year-on-year [1] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 4.285 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.0%, and a net profit of 371 million yuan, reflecting a 3.7% increase year-on-year [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from a significant decline in molasses procurement prices in 2025, contributing positively to profit margins [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 23.5%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased shipping costs [3] - The fourth quarter of 2024 showed an improvement in gross margin by 1.1 percentage points, attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin yeast products [3] - The company’s net profit margin for the fourth quarter was 8.7%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit margin increased by 0.2 percentage points to 7.7% [3] Revenue Breakdown - In Q4 2024, the revenue from yeast and deep processing, sugar, packaging, and other segments was 3.14 billion, 370 million, 100 million, and 680 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.8%, -40.4%, 1.4%, and 18.2% [2] - Domestic revenue in Q4 2024 was 2.84 billion yuan, up 8.9% year-on-year, while international revenue reached 1.46 billion yuan, growing by 12.8% year-on-year [2] Future Outlook - The company targets a revenue growth of over 10% in 2025, with net profit expected to grow steadily [4] - The anticipated recovery in domestic demand and sustained high growth in overseas business could enhance profit elasticity for the company [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer [6] Core Views - Yanjing Beer has shown strong performance in its preliminary 2024 results, with total revenue reaching 14.667 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.056 billion yuan, up 63.74% year-on-year [1] - The company's flagship product, U8, has achieved significant sales growth, with a volume increase of 31.40% year-on-year, contributing to a net profit margin of 7.20% in 2024, an increase of 2.66 percentage points [1][3] - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to continue this positive trend, with net profit projected to grow by 55.96% to 67.66% year-on-year [1][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Yanjing Beer achieved a total beer sales volume of 4.0044 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 1.57% [1] - The company forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to grow by 63.8%, 40.1%, and 29.4%, reaching 1.056 billion, 1.480 billion, and 1.915 billion yuan respectively [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on digital transformation and supply chain improvements as part of its "14th Five-Year Plan," aiming to enhance production efficiency and profitability [2] - Yanjing Beer is implementing nine major reforms to drive high-quality development, including optimizing product structure and sales channels [3] Market Position - The report highlights that Yanjing Beer is well-positioned to benefit from a recovering dining market and a trend towards premiumization, which is expected to further enhance profit margins [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer [6] Core Views - Yanjing Beer has shown strong performance in its 2024 annual results, with total revenue reaching 14.667 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.056 billion yuan, up 63.74% year-on-year [1] - The company's flagship product, U8, has continued to perform well, achieving a sales volume of 696,000 kiloliters in 2024, a significant increase of 31.40% year-on-year, contributing to a net profit margin of 7.20%, up 2.66 percentage points year-on-year [1][2] - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to see a net profit of 160-172 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 55.96%-67.66% [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, Yanjing Beer achieved a total beer sales volume of 4.0044 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 1.57% [1] - The company is projected to see net profits of 1.056 billion yuan in 2024, 1.480 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.915 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 63.8%, 40.1%, and 29.4% respectively [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 0.37 yuan in 2024 to 0.68 yuan in 2026 [5] Strategic Initiatives - Yanjing Beer is focusing on digital transformation and supply chain improvements as part of its "14th Five-Year Plan," aiming to enhance production efficiency and profitability [2] - The company is implementing nine major reforms to drive high-quality development, including optimizing product structure and sales channels, and enhancing its high-end and youth-oriented strategies [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 15.197 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.325 billion yuan, up 4.1% year-on-year [1] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 4.285 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.0%, and a net profit of 371 million yuan, reflecting a 3.7% increase year-on-year [1][2] - The company expects a revenue growth of over 10% in 2025, with steady net profit growth anticipated [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 23.5%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased shipping costs [3] - The fourth quarter of 2024 showed a gross margin improvement of 1.1 percentage points, attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin yeast products [3] - The company’s net profit margin for the fourth quarter was 8.7%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit margin increased by 0.2 percentage points to 7.7% [3] Revenue Breakdown - In Q4 2024, the revenue from yeast and deep processing, sugar, packaging, and other segments was 3.14 billion, 370 million, 100 million, and 680 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.8%, -40.4%, 1.4%, and 18.2% [2] - Domestic revenue in Q4 2024 was 2.84 billion yuan, up 8.9% year-on-year, while international revenue reached 1.46 billion yuan, growing 12.8% year-on-year [2] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the significant decline in molasses procurement prices in 2024 will positively impact profits [4] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.596 billion, 1.872 billion, and 2.212 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.5%, 17.3%, and 18.2% [4]

Group 1: Macro Overview - The U.S. March CPI and core CPI both fell below expectations, with the overall CPI at 2.4%, lower than the expected 2.6% and previous 2.8%[2] - Core CPI dropped to 2.8%, below the expected 3.0% and previous 3.1%, marking the first time it fell below 3% since April 2021[2] - Following the CPI release, the market adjusted its expectations for interest rate cuts, with a 50% probability of four cuts and a 100% probability of a cut in June[4] Group 2: Market Reactions - Post-CPI release, major U.S. stock indices fell: S&P 500 down 3.5%, Nasdaq down 4.3%, and Dow Jones down 2.5%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 8.0 basis points to 4.42%[4] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 2.0% to 100.9, while spot gold increased by 3.0% to $3175.0 per ounce[4] Group 3: Inflation Components - Food prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month, while energy prices fell sharply by -2.4%[3] - Core goods prices decreased by -0.1%, with notable declines in used car and healthcare product prices[3] - "Super core inflation," excluding food, energy, and housing, was -0.04%, down from 0.08% in February[3] Group 4: Economic Concerns - Short-term market concerns center around a liquidity crisis, with current conditions resembling those during the 2020 pandemic[5] - Long-term concerns focus on potential global economic recession due to tariffs, with significant uncertainty regarding their impact on GDP[5] - The next few months are critical for observing economic data and tariff negotiations, with high volatility expected in asset prices[5]