2025 年 4 月 10 日 一文读懂系列之六 一文读懂地方债借新还旧的规律和影响 证券分析师 刘璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060519060001 LIULU979@pingan.com.cn 张君瑞 投资咨询资格编号 S1060519080001 ZHANGJUNRUI748@pingan.com.cn 前言：偿还地方政府债的主要资金来源是传统再融资债（即剔除特殊再融资 债后的再融资债），少量是财政资金，因此大部分地方债到期后都会通过借 新还旧来接续。地方债到期量整体处于上升趋势，因此地方债到期接续比例 和节奏对地方债净供给的影响会逐渐加大。本文将从年度到期接续比例、年 内借新还旧节奏和分省比例三个维度分析地方债借新还旧的规律和影响。 财政部限制地方政府债借新还旧比例，使得历史上地方债接续比例基本在 86.4%附近，也使得地方政府每年净偿还地方政府债约 3800 亿元。出于防 风险目的，财政部设置了地方政府债到期接续的比例上限，还规定地方政府 不得依靠再融资债资金提前赎回地方债。历年地方债接续比例基本在 86.4%附近，23 年异常高，可能是因为当年地方财政收支矛盾较大。过去 5 年及未来三年，每年被净 ...

绝味食品(603517.SH) 公 司 报 告 食品饮料 2025年04月10日 24年经营依然承压，25年向上求突破 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:16.4元 主要数据 | 行业 | 食品饮料 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.juewei.cn | | 大股东/持股 | 上海聚成企业发展合伙企业(有限合 | | | 伙)/34.32% | | 实际控制人 | 戴文军 | | 总股本(百万股) | 606 | | 流通A股(百万股) | 606 | | 流通B/H股(百万股) | | | 总市值(亿元) | 99 | | 流通A股市值(亿元) | 99 | | 每股净资产(元) | 10.54 | | 资产负债率(%) | 23.7 | 行情走势图 证券分析师 事项： 绝味食品发布2024年年报，全年实现营业收入62.57亿元，同比减少13.84%； 归母净利润2.27亿元，同比减少34.04%。公司拟向全体股东每10股派3.3元 （含税）。公司同时发布2025年一季报，25Q1实现营业收入15.01亿元，同 比减少11.47%；归母净利润1.20亿元，同比减少27.29%。 平安观点： ...

2025年04月10日 莱特光电(688150.SH) 需求旺盛叠加新品放量，公司业绩快速增长 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:19.35元 公 司 报 告 主要数据 | 行业 | 电子 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.ltom.com | | 大股东/持股 | 王亚龙/49.52% | | 实际控制人 | 王亚龙 | | 总股本(百万股) | 402 | | 流通A股(百万股) | 179 | | 流通B/H股(百万股) | | | 总市值(亿元) | 78 | | 流通A股市值(亿元) | 35 | | 每股净资产(元) | 4.43 | | 资产负债率(%) | 15.8 | 行情走势图 证券分析师 陈福栋 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524100001 CHENFUDONG847@pingan.com.cn 徐勇 投资咨询资格编号 S1060519090004 XUYONG318@pingan.com.cn 事项： 公司发布2024年报，实现营收4.72亿元，同比增长56.90%，实现归母净利润 1.67亿元，同比增长117.17%。2024年，公司拟向全体股东每10股派发现金红 利 ...

证券研究报告 月酝知风之银行业 ——板块稳健性凸显，分红稳定夯实股息价值 证券分析师 袁喆奇S1060520080003（证券投资咨询） 许 淼S1060525020001（证券投资咨询）） 研究助理 银行行业 强于大市（维持） 2025年4月10日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 核心摘要 注：全文所指银行指数均为银行（中信）指数；截止日为2025年4月7日 2 行业核心观点："顺周期+高股息"，政策组合拳推动板块估值修复。一方面我们持续提示板块股息价值吸引力，按照23年分红额以及4月7日收盘价计算板块平均股息率达到 4.55%，相对以10年期国债收益率衡量的无风险利率的溢价水平仍处于历史高位，且仍在继续走阔，类固收的配置价值持续。与此同时，我们关注成长性优异及受益于政策实效 的区域行，区域经济修复或将提升盈利端向上弹性。最后，预期改善对于股份行的催化值得期待，重点观察来自地产和消费领域的政策支持力度以及修复情况。目前板块静态PB 仅为0.64倍，对应隐含不良率超过15%，安全边际充分。个股维度，我们推荐：1）基本面稳健，受益于政策预期修复的区域行（成都、长沙、苏州、常熟、宁波），并关注股份 行困境反转预期下的配 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Views - The company focuses on differentiated small molecule drug development, with its core asset, Pimicotinib, expected to be commercialized soon [6][12]. - The company achieved its first annual profit in 2024, with a net profit of 28.3 million yuan and total revenue of 504 million yuan, primarily from licensing agreements [6][23]. - The company has a robust pipeline with 19 oncology products, 12 of which are in clinical development [6][12]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Commitment to Differentiated Small Molecule Development - The company is dedicated to developing differentiated small molecule therapies for oncology, with 12 clinical candidates in its pipeline [12]. - The management team has extensive experience in drug development, enhancing the company's innovation capabilities [18]. - A stock repurchase plan of up to 200 million HKD is set to start in 2025, reflecting management's confidence in future growth [21]. - The company reported its first annual profit in 2024, with a strong cash reserve of 1.959 billion yuan [23]. - The core product, Pimicotinib, is expected to submit applications for market approval in China and the U.S. in 2025 [26]. Section 2: CSF-1R Pimicotinib for TGCT - Pimicotinib has reached the primary endpoint in its Phase 3 trial for treating TGCT, with plans to submit market applications in 2025 [30][32]. - The drug shows promising efficacy and safety in treating chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGvHD) in its Phase 2 trials [38][44]. Section 3: FGFR Small Molecule Inhibitors - The company has a multi-faceted approach to FGFR inhibitors, with ABSK011 entering pivotal Phase 2/3 trials for liver cancer [7]. - ABSK061, the first FGFR2/3 inhibitor in clinical trials, is expected to advance in 2025 for various indications [7]. Section 4: Oral PD-L1 Inhibitor ABSK043 - The global PD-(L)1 market is projected to exceed 50 billion USD in 2024, with the company exploring the potential of its oral PD-L1 inhibitor [4]. Section 5: Early Pipeline and Dual-Antibody ADC Platform - The company maintains a rich early-stage pipeline, which is crucial for its long-term growth [7].

推荐 ( 维持) 股价:19.35元 主要数据 公 司 报 告 | 行业 | 电子 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.ltom.com | | 大股东/持股 | 王亚龙/49.52% | | 实际控制人 | 王亚龙 | | 总股本(百万股) | 402 | | 流通A股(百万股) | 179 | | 流通B/H股(百万股) | | | 总市值(亿元) | 78 | | 流通A股市值(亿元) | 35 | | 每股净资产(元) | 4.43 | | 资产负债率(%) | 15.8 | 2025年04月10日 莱特光电(688150.SH) 需求旺盛叠加新品放量，公司业绩快速增长 徐勇 投资咨询资格编号 S1060519090004 XUYONG318@pingan.com.cn 事项： 公司发布2024年报，实现营收4.72亿元，同比增长56.90%，实现归母净利润 1.67亿元，同比增长117.17%。2024年，公司拟向全体股东每10股派发现金红 利1.3元（含税），不进行资本公积金转增股本、不送红股。 平安观点： 公 司 年 报 点 评 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 陈福栋 投资咨询 ...

行 业 报 告 《促进健康消费专项行动方案》发布，保健品行业迎来发 展机遇 强于大市( 维持) 行情走势图 食品饮料 2025年04月10日 行业点评 证券分析师 张晋溢 投资咨询资格编号 S1060521030001 ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 王萌 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522030001 WANGMENG917@pingan.com.cn 王星云 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523100001 wangxingyun937@pingan.com.cn 事项： 新华社报道，商务部、国家卫生健康委等12部门近日联合印发的《促进健康消 费专项行动方案》9日发布。 平安观点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 合理的渠道布局可以更高效地满足消费者多样化需求，提升产品销量和 品牌影响力。 请通过合法途径获取本公司研究报告，如经由未经许可的渠道获得研究报告，请慎重使用并注意阅读研究报告尾页的声明内容 行 业 点 评 提升健康商品和服务供给质量，更好满足人民健康消费需求。 本次方案 提出提升10方面重点任务，其中与食品饮料板块直接相关的是：（1）提 升健康饮食消费水平，打击食品非法添加，开展有 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The panic caused by recent tariffs has led investors to de - leverage and chase cash, resulting in the selling of both safe and risky assets. The 10Y US Treasury yield has risen by up to 60BP from the low of 3.9% on April 7th, approaching 4.5%, and the 10Y breakeven inflation rate has decreased, indicating that the yield increase is due to institutional de - leveraging rather than inflation trading. The selling of US Treasuries may be due to investors selling to replenish margins and hedge funds closing basis trades in high - volatility situations [3]. - The current US Treasury liquidity shock is similar to that in March 2020 but less severe. So far, the shock has not spread to the money market, with stable trading volume in the federal funds market and stable bill financing costs. Off - shore US dollar liquidity has tightened slightly [3]. - The current liquidity shock may not have reached the level requiring Fed intervention. If tariff negotiations progress and the US stock market stabilizes, the selling pressure on US Treasuries may ease, and the liquidity shock may subside spontaneously. However, if external policy shocks intensify market panic, the shock could spread to the money market, and the Fed may provide liquidity support through tools despite a low probability of emergency rate cuts [3]. - In an environment of high policy uncertainty, investors are advised to control their positions in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Related Information Current US Treasury Market Situation - The 10Y US Treasury yield has risen significantly due to de - leveraging, and the 10Y breakeven inflation rate has decreased, showing non - inflation - driven yield increase [3]. - Credit spreads have widened significantly, while bill financing spreads have remained low. Off - shore US dollar liquidity has tightened marginally, and the federal funds market trading volume has remained stable [3][11][15]. Comparison with 2020 March Situation - The current US Treasury liquidity shock is similar to that in March 2020 but less severe [3]. - In March 2020, the shock lasted nearly ten days, leading to Fed emergency rate cuts and QE. There were a series of events such as stock market circuit - breakers, increased repo投放, and the establishment of multiple Fed facilities [18].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Views - The company focuses on differentiated small molecule drug development, with its core asset, Pimicotinib, expected to be commercialized soon [6][12]. - The company achieved its first annual profit in 2024, with a net profit of 28.3 million yuan and total revenue of 504 million yuan, primarily from licensing agreements [6][23]. - The company has a robust pipeline with 19 oncology products, 12 of which are in clinical development, and has established partnerships with major pharmaceutical companies [6][12]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Commitment to Differentiated Small Molecule Development - The company is dedicated to developing differentiated small molecule therapies for oncology, with 12 clinical candidates in its pipeline [12]. - The management team has extensive experience in drug development, enhancing the company's innovation capabilities [19]. - A stock buyback plan of up to 200 million HKD is set to start in 2025, reflecting management's confidence in future growth [21]. - The company reported its first annual profit in 2024, with a cash reserve of 1.959 billion yuan [23]. - The core product, Pimicotinib, is expected to submit applications for market approval in China and the U.S. in 2025 [28]. Section 2: Pimicotinib for TGCT - Pimicotinib has reached the primary endpoint in its Phase 3 trial for treating TGCT and is expected to submit market applications in 2025 [30][33]. - The drug shows promising efficacy and safety in treating cGvHD, with a complete Phase 2 data disclosure expected in 2025 [39][45]. Section 3: FGFR Small Molecule Inhibitors - The company is advancing its FGFR4 inhibitor, ABSK011, into pivotal Phase 2/3 trials for liver cancer [7]. - ABSK061, a FGFR2/3 inhibitor, is set to enter clinical trials for achondroplasia in 2025 [7]. Section 4: Oral PD-L1 Inhibitor Development - The global PD-(L)1 market is projected to exceed 50 billion USD in 2024, with the company exploring the potential of its oral PD-L1 inhibitor [4]. Section 5: Early Pipeline and Dual-Antibody ADC Platform - The company maintains a rich early-stage pipeline, which is crucial for its long-term growth [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Strong Buy" (maintained) [12] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 66.6 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 27.1 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year [4][7] - The annualized weighted average ROE for 2024 was 13.59% [4] - The company has increased its cash dividend proposal to 5.943 billion yuan, accounting for 22.77% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [4][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's net interest income grew by 17.3% year-on-year, while non-interest income saw a decline of 9.9% [7] - The net interest margin at the end of 2024 was 1.86%, showing a slight improvement compared to the previous quarter [7] - Total assets increased by 15.3% year-on-year, with loans and deposits growing by 17.8% and 17.2% respectively [7][11] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.76% at the end of 2024, with a projected annualized NPL generation rate of 1.17% [8][10] - The company’s provision coverage ratio was 389%, indicating a strong buffer against potential loan losses [8][10] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 4.38 yuan in 2025, 4.83 yuan in 2026, and 5.34 yuan in 2027, with corresponding profit growth rates of 6.5%, 10.3%, and 10.7% [7][11] - The projected growth rates for total assets, loans, and deposits are 13.3% to 17.0% over the next few years [11]