证 券 研 究 报 告 行业研究 汽车 2025 年 07 月 18 日 推荐（维持） 汽车行业新能源销量跟踪报告 25H1 销量维持高增，中期需踏准节奏布局 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：张程航 电话：021-20572543 邮箱：zhangchenghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360519070003 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 232 | 0.03 | | 总市值(亿元) | 52,122.63 | 4.89 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 33,537.11 | 4.00 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 4.0% | 12.2% | 34.2% | | 相对表现 | -0.2% | 6.4% | 19.0% | -11% 6% 23% 40% 24/07 24/09 24/12 25/02 25/05 25/07 2024-07-18~2025-07-17 汽车 沪深300 相关研究报告 《【华创汽车】车企车系跟踪：4-5 月自主 ...

Group 1: Cross-Border Capital Flow - In Q1 2025, cross-border capital continued to show a net outflow of $316.7 billion, the highest level since Q1 2021[2] - Domestic capital outflow reached $481.1 billion, marking the highest level since Q1 2021[2] - Foreign capital inflow was $195.4 billion, while foreign capital outflow was $31.0 billion[2] Group 2: Domestic Investment Trends - Domestic securities investment outflow reached $164.5 billion, a record high since 2011[3] - Domestic direct investment outflow was $143.6 billion, the highest since Q1 2021[4] - The increase in domestic capital outflow was driven by investments in overseas stocks and funds through channels like "Hong Kong Stock Connect" and "mutual recognition of funds"[2] Group 3: Trade Credit and Gold Reserves - Trade credit net outflow was $44.2 billion, the highest since Q4 2015[5] - Monetary gold increased by $38.3 billion, setting a record since 2011, with the central bank accumulating a total of 1.126 million ounces of gold since 2022[6]

Inflation Data - In June, the US CPI increased from 2.4% to 2.7%, matching expectations, while core CPI rose from 2.8% to 2.9%, slightly below the 3% forecast[1] - Month-on-month, CPI rose by 0.3%, consistent with expectations, while core CPI increased by 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%[1] Tariff Impact on CPI - The inflation effect of tariffs was evident in June, with furniture prices rising by 1% (previously 0.3%), clothing by 0.4% (previously -0.4%), and entertainment goods by 0.8% (previously 0.4%)[3] - It is estimated that tariffs have contributed 14% to CPI if core prices remained at February levels, and 40% if they followed last year's declining trend[4] Future Tariff Effects - Assuming the overall tariff rate increases to 17.3%, the remaining unaccounted tariff impact on core prices could add approximately 2.7-2.9 percentage points, translating to a 0.5-0.54 percentage point increase in overall CPI[5] - If the remaining tariff effects manifest over the next three months, the CPI year-on-year could reach 3.2% and 3.3% in Q3 and Q4, respectively[10] Market Reactions - Following the CPI report, market expectations for interest rate cuts slightly decreased, with the anticipated number of cuts dropping from 1.93 to 1.76 for the year[1] - The probability of a rate cut in September fell from 60.1% to 55%, while year-end policy rate expectations rose from 3.846% to 3.89%[1]

Group 1 - The report highlights the continuous growth of index ETF investments, with the total scale reaching 3.7 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, an 81% increase from the end of 2023 [5] - The report emphasizes the significant impact of index rebalancing on the market, particularly noting that most index funds begin rebalancing three days in advance, with trading volume peaking on the day before the rebalancing takes effect [10][22] - The report suggests a trading volume distribution strategy for index rebalancing, recommending a ratio of 2:3:5 for T-3, T-2, and T-1 days, respectively, to optimize trading costs and minimize market impact [34][47] Group 2 - The report provides detailed analysis of price and trading volume changes before and after index rebalancing, indicating that trading volume increases significantly in the days leading up to the rebalancing date [10][22] - It notes that the average daily return for stocks added to or removed from the index remains within ±1.5%, with the highest volatility observed on T-1 day [14][32] - The report recommends specific trading algorithms based on the liquidity and price deviation of different indices, suggesting MOC for high liquidity indices and TWAP/VWAP for those with lower liquidity [47][51] Group 3 - The report includes a backtesting section that analyzes the impact of stock liquidity, volatility, and market capitalization on trading costs, revealing that trading volume on T-1 day often exceeds historical averages by 1.5 to 3 times [35][38] - It discusses the market impact of different-sized ETFs, indicating that larger ETFs experience greater market impact during rebalancing, with the highest impact observed in the dividend index [40][42] - The report concludes with algorithmic trading recommendations for different indices, emphasizing the importance of timing and trading strategy to minimize costs [46][51]

Group 1: Inflation and CPI Data - In June, the US CPI increased year-on-year from 2.4% to 2.7%, matching expectations, while core CPI rose from 2.8% to 2.9%, slightly below the 3% forecast[2] - Month-on-month, CPI rose by 0.3%, consistent with expectations, while core CPI increased by 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%[2] - The proportion of CPI items with year-on-year increases exceeding 2% rose from 40.8% to 44.1%, indicating a broadening inflationary trend[24] Group 2: Tariff Impact on CPI - The estimated impact of tariffs on CPI shows that if core goods prices remained at February levels, the tariff effect could account for 14% of CPI; if prices followed last year's downward trend, the effect could be 40%[4] - The remaining unaccounted tariff impact on core goods prices is estimated to be around 2.7-2.9 percentage points, translating to an overall CPI impact of 0.5-0.54 percentage points[23] - For specific high-import-dependency goods, tariffs have been reflected in CPI as follows: toys and games (52%), furniture (70%), clothing (10%) if prices remained at February levels[18] Group 3: Market Expectations and Economic Outlook - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly cooled, with the anticipated number of cuts for the year decreasing from 1.93 to 1.76, and the probability of a September cut dropping from 60.1% to 55%[2] - Bloomberg's consensus forecast for year-on-year CPI in Q3 and Q4 is 3.1% and 3.2%, respectively, reflecting the anticipated impact of remaining tariffs[23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the aviation industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant improvement in the performance of major airlines in Q2, driven by resilient domestic demand and ongoing recovery in international routes [7]. - The report emphasizes the constraints on supply and the reduction in oil prices, which are expected to alleviate cost pressures for airlines [7]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for specific airlines, particularly Huaxia Airlines and Spring Airlines, due to their competitive advantages in the domestic market [7]. Summary by Sections Airline Data Analysis - In June, the overall ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growth rates were led by Spring Airlines (12.4%), followed by Eastern Airlines (6.5%) and Southern Airlines (4.6%) [1]. - For the first half of the year, cumulative ASK growth was highest for Spring Airlines (9.5%) and Eastern Airlines (7.5%) [1]. - In June, the RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) growth rates were also led by Spring Airlines (11.6%) and Eastern Airlines (10.0%) [1]. - Cumulatively, Eastern Airlines had the highest RPK growth in the first half of the year at 12.2% [1]. Domestic and International Routes - Domestic route performance in June showed Spring Airlines leading with an ASK growth of 10.5%, while international routes saw significant growth from 吉祥航空 (46.9%) [2][3]. - Cumulatively, for the first half of the year, 吉祥航空 had the highest ASK growth in international routes at 65.6% [2]. Passenger Load Factor - In June, the passenger load factor was highest for Spring Airlines at 92.1%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.6 percentage points [3]. - For the first half of the year, Spring Airlines maintained the highest load factor at 90.5%, despite a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 percentage points [3]. Fleet Growth - As of June 2025, the total fleet of the five listed airlines increased by 5 aircraft, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3% [3][19]. Financial Performance Forecast - The report forecasts significant improvements in the financial performance of major airlines for the first half of 2025, with Huaxia Airlines expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 2.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 875% [7][9]. - In contrast, the three major airlines (Air China, Eastern Airlines, and Southern Airlines) are expected to report losses, but with reduced loss margins compared to the previous year [7][10].

Economic Growth - GDP growth rate for Q2 is 5.2%, slightly down from 5.4% in Q1, with a cumulative growth rate of 5.3% for the first half of the year[4] - Nominal GDP growth rate for Q2 is 3.9%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.1%[28] - Contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth is 52.3%, up from Q1[30] Price and Volume Imbalance - Contribution rate of volume to nominal GDP growth is 132%, while price contribution is -30.6%, indicating a high level of imbalance[4] - Historical data shows that the current volume contribution rate of 132.1% is the highest among the last seven peaks[14] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment growth rate in June is -0.1%, down from 2.7% in May, with manufacturing and infrastructure investments declining[7] - Consumer spending growth in Q2 is 5.2%, slightly above income growth of 5.1%[32] Employment and Income - Total rural migrant workers is 19.139 million, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7%[6] - Average monthly income for migrant workers in Q2 is up 3.0%, down from 3.3% in Q1[40] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment growth rate in June is -12.9%, with sales area down 5.5% year-on-year[54] - New housing prices in 70 major cities decreased by 4.1% year-on-year, an improvement from a 5.2% decline previously[28]

Debt Issuance Pressure - The estimated net issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds for Q3 2025 is approximately $1.12 trillion, second only to Q2 2020, indicating significant supply pressure[2] - This figure exceeds the actual financing amount of $1.01 trillion in Q3 2023, suggesting a substantial increase in issuance pressure[11] - The projected fiscal deficit for Q3 2025 is $0.6 trillion, with a TGA net increase of $0.52 trillion contributing to the net issuance estimate[11] Historical Context - The supply panic in Q3 2023 was primarily due to actual financing of $1.01 trillion significantly exceeding the expected $0.85 trillion[27] - The low TGA balance at the start of Q3 2023 (actual $148 billion vs. expected $408.6 billion) contributed to the unexpected financing pressure[27] - Historical data suggests that the overall debt maturity pressure for Q3 2025 is not significantly elevated compared to previous periods[37] Interest Rate Dynamics - Rising Treasury yields in 2023 were influenced by stronger-than-expected economic data and hawkish Federal Reserve policies[3] - If similar yield increases occur in Q3 2025, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to accelerate its easing cycle[36] - The market anticipates that the significant increase in bond supply for Q3 2025 will not lead to a repeat of the panic seen in Q3 2023 due to better expectations[28] Debt Structure Adjustments - Adjusting the issuance structure by increasing short-term debt may alleviate some pressure on long-term bond supply, but not entirely[51] - The total estimated debt issuance for FY 2025 is $30.6 trillion, with Q3 2025 expected to account for $8.32 trillion of this total[45] - The proportion of short-term debt has been increasing, with the long-term debt issuance ratio dropping to around 16%[47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [22]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 449 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 60.07%, and a net profit of 91 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 122.28% [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 is expected to see revenues of 257 million yuan, up 58.64% year-on-year and 33.91% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 50 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 52.91% [1]. - The company is focusing on the commercialization of its CIM edge products, driven by strong demand for low-power, high-performance edge devices in the AI sector [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is forecasted to grow from 652 million yuan in 2024 to 1.663 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30.4% [3]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 107 million yuan in 2024 to 354 million yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 33.9% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.73 yuan in 2024 to 2.42 yuan in 2027 [3]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is estimated to decrease from 78 times in 2024 to 23 times in 2027, indicating improving valuation [3]. Product Development and Market Position - The company is a leading low-power AIoT chip designer, focusing on the mid-to-high-end smart audio SoC market, and is a major supplier for Bluetooth audio SoCs [7]. - The introduction of the MMSCIM architecture is aimed at meeting the growing demand for low-power edge AI products, with significant advancements in product penetration and sales growth [7]. - The company has successfully launched several AI audio chips and is actively working on the second generation of CIM technology to enhance performance and efficiency [7].

Economic Growth - The GDP growth rate for Q2 is 5.2%, with a cumulative growth rate of 5.3% for the first half of the year, indicating a reduced difficulty in achieving the annual GDP target[2] - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q2 is 3.94%, with a contribution rate of 132% from volume and -30.6% from price, highlighting a high degree of imbalance in volume-price distribution[2][9] - Final consumption expenditure contributed 52.3% to economic growth in Q2, slightly up from Q1, while capital formation contributed 24.7% and net exports contributed 23%[3][25] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment growth in June was -0.1%, down from 2.7% in the previous month, with manufacturing and infrastructure investment both declining[4][55] - The consumer spending growth rate in June was 4.8%, down from 6.4%, with notable declines in restaurant and related goods consumption[4][44] - The consumer propensity to spend was 68.6% in Q2, slightly higher than the previous year's 68.5%, indicating a stable consumer sentiment[5][28] Capacity Utilization and Employment - The capacity utilization rate for Q2 was 74.0%, down from 74.9% in the same period last year, with several industries showing declines[3][32] - The total number of rural migrant workers was 19.139 million at the end of Q2, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7%[3][35] - The urban survey unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% in June, reflecting a steady employment situation[40]