Group 1: US Economic Recovery - The US economy is showing signs of recovery with a shift towards a more accommodative fiscal stance, as evidenced by a weekly fiscal deficit of $21.6 billion in week 29, and a projected deficit space exceeding $500 billion for Q3 [2] - Employment data indicates a significant improvement, with initial jobless claims decreasing by 4,000 to 217,000, marking a seasonal low and suggesting a stable unemployment rate [2] - Trade negotiations between the US and Japan, as well as the EU, have made progress, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the US and the EU agreeing to procure $750 billion in US energy [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The market experienced fluctuations influenced by two main factors: Trump's pressure on Powell for rate cuts and the positive signals from US-Japan trade agreements, leading to a rise in US stocks by 1.06% [3] - The bond market is expected to maintain a high volatility pattern, with a focus on short to medium-term US Treasury bonds as interest rates are projected to remain elevated [3] - The dollar's performance will be influenced by rate cut expectations and trade negotiations, with a forecast of low volatility in the short term [3] Group 3: China Economic Indicators - China's exports showed resilience in July, with container throughput averaging 6.54 million TEUs and cargo throughput at 26.236 million tons, reflecting year-on-year growth of 7.0% and 11.6% respectively [7] - Domestic demand is mixed, with strong growth in automobile retail sales, averaging 48,000 units per day in July, while real estate transactions are declining, with new home sales down 20.8% year-on-year [7][8] - Industrial profits in June remained weak, with a year-on-year decline of 4.3%, although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to May [8] Group 4: Policy and Strategy Outlook - The upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting is expected to address internal and external pressures, with a focus on maintaining a 5% growth target and emphasizing policies to boost domestic demand [9] - The market sentiment is improving, driven by supply-side policies and demand-side expectations, with a notable increase in risk appetite reflected in the stock market [10] - The bond market is experiencing a correction, with a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.74%, while the long-term outlook for bonds remains bullish due to ongoing low interest rates [11]

Group 1: Economic Performance - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative profit of national industrial enterprises decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, compared to a previous decline of 1.1%[3] - Cumulative operating revenue increased by 2.5% year-on-year, slightly down from 2.7% in the previous period[3] - In June, the monthly revenue growth was approximately 1.6%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[4] Group 2: Profitability Insights - The profit decline in June narrowed to -4.3%, improving by 4.8 percentage points compared to May[4] - The contributions to June's profit growth from industrial value added, PPI, and profit margin year-on-year were +6.4, -3.6, and -6.9 percentage points, respectively[4] - Investment income is expected to contribute more significantly to profits, with June's cost, expenses, and investment income per 100 yuan of revenue being 85.2, 8.8, and 0.0 yuan, respectively[4] Group 3: Sector Analysis - In June, the profit growth of anti-involution industries improved by 3.3 percentage points to -8.0%, while non-anti-involution industries declined by 0.9 percentage points to -2.1%[5] - The profit share of midstream industries increased to 39.5%, while upstream and downstream shares were 28.6% and 21%, respectively[5] - Specific sectors like black metallurgy and automotive saw significant profit improvements, with increases of 1815.9 and 15.5 percentage points, respectively[5] Group 4: Inventory and Market Dynamics - In June, nominal inventory decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 3.1%, while actual inventory saw a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points to 6.7%[7] - The inventory turnover ratio remained high, indicating ongoing challenges in inventory management despite the nominal decrease[7] - The report highlights that the initial effects of anti-involution are beginning to show, with structural improvements in enterprise profits[7]

❖ 核心观点 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 自下而上：微观财报中的 8 个宏观看点 ❖ 二、收入分配：薪资增速仍高，一次分配优化 1）制造业薪酬增速不低，且相对收入水平提升。2024 年，制造业上市公司人 均薪酬为 17.6 万元，同比增长 4.4%，与城镇居民可支配收入增速（4.6%）大 体持平。从相对水平看，2024 年，制造业人均薪酬与金融业之比由降转升，录 得 2012 年来最高值，即从相对薪酬层面看，有利于人才流入制造业。 2）上市公司层面的"劳动者报酬占比"提升，近似以薪酬总额/营业收入衡量 上市公司层面的劳动者报酬占比。2021 年来，制造业上市公司中劳动者报酬 占比持续提升，2023 年为 9.3%，2024 年升至 9.9%、为 2012 年来的最高值。 ❖ 三、盈利问题：整体承压，境外业务利润率较高 时值年报季，我们透过微观财报观察宏观趋势。客观来看，当前部分企业经营 可能面临一些压力，包括当期盈利走弱、回款不畅，以及衡量企业预期的资本 开支、货币资金增速转负。但同时，一些积极的线索正在形成： 1）消费线索。当前制造业薪酬增长稳健（同比 4.4%），同时上市公司层面"劳 动者报酬占 ...