证 券 研 究 报 告 证券行业周报（20251110-20251116） 推荐（维持） 再融资规模同比高增，北交所占据 IPO 排队主体 ❑ 事项：2025 年 1-10 月，一级市场融资端呈现回暖态势，但结构分化显著。1） IPO 方面：全市场募集金额 902 亿元（同比+70.7%），家数 87 家（同比+7 家）。 IPO 节奏在保持常态化的基础上温和回升，但体量相对可控。2）再融资方面： 募集金额 8636 亿元（同比+428.8%），家数 173 家（同比+19 家）。再融资规模 出现倍数级增长，单家平均募资规模大幅提升。这或反映出在 IPO 入口严监管 背景下，资本市场功能重心向存量上市公司倾斜，支持优质龙头企业通过定增、 并购重组等方式做优做强，政策支持效果在数据端得到充分验证。 IPO 储备结构：北交所承接效应明显。截至 11 月 18 日，剔除终止及中止项目 后，IPO 报审家数共计 186 家，板块分布呈现极度不均衡特征：北交所（112 家，占比 60.2%）占据报审队伍六成以上，为当前企业首发上市的主阵地。这 与监管层支持专精特新、中小市值企业融资的导向高度一致。沪深主板及双创 板块（ ...

1. Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025Q3, the market value of convertible bonds held by public - funds increased, with the bond - type funds being the main force of the increase, and they mainly added positions in power equipment convertible bonds. The position of convertible bonds held by public - funds also rose. Although the convertible bond market continued to shrink, the convertible bond assets still had considerable returns under the catalysis of equity enthusiasm [2][8][9]. - The performance of convertible bond funds outperformed the index in 2025Q3, showing net subscriptions and scale expansion. However, the overall position and leverage ratio of these funds declined. Both public - funds and convertible bond funds focused on adding positions in power equipment convertible bonds [5][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Public - funds Increase Convertible Bond Positions and Add Positions in Power Equipment Convertible Bonds 3.1.1 Market Value of Convertible Bonds Held by Public - funds Increases Month - on - Month, and Positions Rise - In 2025Q3, the market value of convertible bonds held by public - funds was 316.618 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 16.09% and a year - on - year increase of 12.72%. The ratio of the market value of convertible bonds held by public - funds to the market value of bond investments was 1.57%, a 0.28 - percentage - point increase from 25Q2; the ratio to net worth was 0.87%, a 0.07 - percentage - point increase from 25Q2 [13]. - The market value changes of convertible bonds held by different types of funds varied month - on - month. Stock - type and secondary bond - type funds significantly increased their positions. From the perspective of absolute amount changes, the bond - type funds had the largest increase in market value, with a month - on - month increase of 48.61 billion yuan in 25Q3 [17][19]. - The overall position of public - funds in convertible bonds increased, but the position of convertible bond funds was diluted. According to the Wind fund primary classification, the convertible bond position of stock - type funds remained flat at 0.02% month - on - month, that of hybrid funds decreased by 0.26 percentage points to 0.59%, and that of bond - type funds increased by 0.49 percentage points to 2.73% [23][25]. 3.1.2 Public - funds Inversely Increase Positions, while Insurance Funds, Enterprise Annuities, and Securities Firms' Proprietary Trading Reduce Positions - As of the end of 2025Q3, the total face value of convertible bonds held by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges was 599.489 billion yuan, a decrease of 55.679 billion yuan from the end of 25Q2, a month - on - month decrease of 8.50%. Insurance institutions, enterprise annuities, and securities firms' proprietary trading significantly reduced their positions, while public - funds significantly increased their positions inversely, with a month - on - month increase of 7.68% to 233.561 billion yuan [35]. 3.1.3 Public - funds Mainly Add Positions in Power Equipment, and Bank Convertible Bonds Further Shrink - In terms of industry layout in 25Q3, banks were still the primary layout sector, but the overall position market value shrank significantly under the early redemption of multiple bank convertible bonds, with only a 233 - million - yuan difference from the power equipment market value. From the perspective of the market value month - on - month change rate, 24 industries had positive month - on - month changes, with the petrochemical, power equipment, and beauty care industries leading in growth [42]. 3.1.4 Industrial Convertible Bonds Maintain the First - Positioned Heavy - Position Bond - Industrial convertible bonds were the first - positioned heavy - position bond of public - funds, and EVE and Industrial convertible bonds led in terms of incremental positions. Among the top ten convertible bonds in terms of total position market value, there were 3 bank convertible bonds, which was fewer than in Q2. The types of bottom - position bonds gradually diversified [50]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Funds' Performance Outperforms the Index, and Convertible Bond Positions and Leverage Ratios Decline 3.2.1 Net Asset Value after Reinvestment Increases, and Overall Net Subscriptions Occur - As of 2025Q3, there were 39 convertible bond funds in the market. The performance of convertible bond funds outperformed the convertible bond index, showing net subscriptions and scale expansion. The scale of convertible bond funds in 25Q3 was 63.284 billion yuan, a significant increase of 11.635 billion yuan from 25Q2, a month - on - month increase of 22.53% [55]. - By observing the asset allocation changes of high - performing convertible bond funds, most of the larger - scale funds had reduced convertible bond positions. The top five funds in terms of net value performance in 25Q3 all had a certain scale, and most of them reduced their positions in stocks and convertible bond assets [57][58]. 3.2.2 Convertible Bond Positions Slightly Decrease Month - on - Month, and Leverage Ratios Decline Month - on - Month - The overall position of 39 convertible bond funds slightly decreased, and the leverage ratio declined month - on - month. In the third quarter of 2025, the ratio of the market value of convertible bonds to the net value of convertible bond funds was 84.18%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.16 percentage points; the median position was 85.54%, a more obvious month - on - month decrease of 6.14 percentage points. The average leverage ratio of 39 convertible bond funds was 114.13%, a decrease of 2.79 percentage points month - on - month, continuing the downward trend [5][68]. 3.2.3 Convertible Bond Funds Focus on Adding Positions in Power Equipment - From the perspective of the quarterly change in the number of times funds held convertible bonds, more than half of the industries had an increase in the number of holdings in 25Q3, with power equipment, electronics, and machinery leading in the increase. From the perspective of the quarterly change in the proportion of the market value of fund positions, the proportion of power equipment increased by 4.46 percentage points, leading by a large margin [6]. - Among the 39 convertible bond funds, Industrial convertible bonds were still the main heavy - position bond and increased in position. The banking and power equipment industries remained at the forefront of heavy - position industries [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887) with a target price of 36 CNY [2][6]. Core Insights - Yili has outlined a five-year growth plan focusing on stabilizing the entire industry chain and enhancing profitability amidst weak demand and intensified competition. The company aims for a net profit margin of 9% for the year [6]. - The company expects revenue growth to outpace GDP growth over the next five years, with a focus on liquid milk and functional nutrition as key growth drivers [6]. - Yili plans to increase its market share in various product categories, including infant formula and low-temperature dairy products, while also accelerating international expansion [6]. - A commitment to high dividend payouts has been established, with plans for cash dividends to account for at least 75% of net profit from 2025 to 2027 [6]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue (in million CNY) for 2024A is 115,780, with a year-on-year growth rate of -8.2%. By 2027E, revenue is expected to reach 125,537 million CNY, with a growth rate of 3.5% [2][6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 8,453 million CNY in 2024A, with a significant increase to 13,302 million CNY by 2027E, reflecting a growth rate of 8.2% [2][6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 1.34 CNY in 2024A to 2.10 CNY in 2027E, indicating a positive trend in profitability [2][6]. Market Position and Strategy - Yili aims to lead the liquid milk market by 2026, with a focus on penetrating lower-tier markets and enhancing presence in high-tier cities [6]. - The company is shifting its marketing strategy from traditional methods to more engaging and ROI-focused approaches, which is expected to support ongoing profitability improvements [6]. - Yili's international business is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20%, with a focus on high-value products from New Zealand and expanding its presence in Southeast Asia [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the computer industry, expecting the industry index to rise more than 5% compared to the benchmark index in the next 3-6 months [16]. Core Insights - The report highlights Huawei's HarmonyOS ecosystem showcasing significant breakthroughs in technology and expanding its application across various sectors, including industrial, security, medical, and financial fields [2]. - The HarmonyOS6 release marks a full-stack technological upgrade, enhancing interaction paradigms and performance, with key improvements in collaborative capabilities and user experience [2]. - The ecosystem has seen substantial growth, with over 1 billion devices and more than 8 million developers, indicating a shift from quantity accumulation to qualitative leaps [2]. - The dual drive from government and consumer sectors is accelerating digital transformation, with HarmonyOS becoming a core support for this transition [2]. - Investment suggestions include focusing on developers, terminal manufacturers, commercial entities, and tools related to the HarmonyOS ecosystem [2]. Industry Overview - The computer industry consists of 338 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 586.92 billion yuan and a circulating market value of about 531.63 billion yuan [2]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past month, six months, and twelve months has been 3.0%, 25.6%, and 22.3% respectively, indicating strong growth [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the recent high-tech achievements exhibition as a pivotal moment for the HarmonyOS system transitioning from technology validation to large-scale commercial use [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found in the provided documents. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The equity market is currently in the process of brewing the main investment themes for the next year, with significant style adjustments and accelerated sector rotation. The AI - related industrial chain and sectors mentioned in the 14th Five - Year Plan are worthy of attention [1][8][9]. - In the convertible bond market, mid - low - priced convertible bonds have performed well recently, and historically, defensive varieties have shown good excess returns at the end of the year. The large - cap convertible bond index also has a better cost - performance ratio at the end of the year [1][17][22]. Summary According to the Directory 1. End - of - year Main Theme Brewing Period: Focus on Mid - low - priced and Large - cap Convertible Bonds - The equity market has shown significant style adjustments since October. The trading congestion of TMT sectors has declined, while the trading in some non - ferrous, new/old energy sectors has become active. The sector rotation speed usually accelerates in the last 1 - 2 months of the year, and the trends of strong sectors may change [1][8][9]. - Mid - low - priced convertible bonds have performed well since mid - October, while high - priced equity - biased convertible bonds have fluctuated. Historically, except for 2019 - 2021, low - priced convertible bonds have had more obvious relative returns at the end of the year. The large - cap convertible bond index also has a better cost - performance ratio at the end of the year [1][17][22]. 2. Market Review: Convertible Bonds Rose Slightly Weekly, and Valuations Increased Slightly (1) Weekly Market Conditions: The Convertible Bond Market Rose Slightly, and Half of the Sectors Rose - Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.40%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 3.01%, the SSE 50 Index remained unchanged, the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 0.52%, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index increased by 0.52%. There are 405 issued and unexpired convertible bonds, with a balance of 552.048 billion yuan [23]. - In the equity market, more than half of the industries in the Shenwan Primary Industry Index rose. In the convertible bond market, the iron and steel, petroleum and petrochemical, non - ferrous metals, food and beverage, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sectors rose, while the media, electronics, building materials, communications, and national defense and military industries declined [28]. - Most of the popular concepts rose last week, with the cross - strait integration, SPD, antibiotics, and other concepts leading the increase, while the optical communication, photolithography factory, and other concepts led the decline [30]. (2) Valuation Performance: The Premium Rates of Convertible Bonds with Different Ratings and Sizes Changed Differently - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 134.95 yuan, an increase of 0.48% from the previous Friday. The closing prices of equity - biased, debt - biased, and balanced convertible bonds all increased. The proportion of the 110 - 120 (inclusive) price range decreased significantly. The median price increased by 0.55%. The convertible bond market's 100 - yuan par - value fitted conversion premium rate increased by 0.11 percentage points [32]. - The premium rates of convertible bonds with different ratings and sizes changed differently. The A+ rating decreased by 0.46 percentage points, and the size of less than 3 billion yuan (inclusive) decreased by 1.5 percentage points. The conversion premium rate of convertible bonds in the par - value range of less than 80 yuan (inclusive) decreased by 2.37 percentage points [32]. 3. Terms and Supply: 3 Convertible Bonds Announced Early Redemption, and the Total Pending Issuance Scale is Approximately 11 Billion Yuan (1) Terms: Last week, 3 Convertible Bonds Announced Early Redemption, and No Convertible Bond's Board of Directors Proposed a Downward Revision - As of November 14, Yuguang, Cehui, and Tianci announced early redemption; Dazhong, Weice, and Saili convertible bonds announced no early redemption; Chutian, Lizhong, Youcai, Huicheng, Haoyuan, Guocheng, Aofei, Mingdianzhuan 02, Hongfa, and Shenma convertible bonds announced that they were expected to meet the early redemption conditions [2][53]. - Last week, no convertible bond's board of directors proposed a downward revision. Dongshi convertible bond announced the downward revision result; 7 convertible bonds announced no downward revision, and 9 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger a downward revision [2][53]. (2) Primary Market: Last week, Ruike Convertible Bonds were Issued, and the Total Pending Issuance Scale is Approximately 11 Billion Yuan - Last week, Ruike Convertible Bonds were issued with a scale of 1 billion yuan, and there were no newly listed convertible bonds [3][56]. - Last week, 1 company added a board of directors' plan, 3 companies passed the shareholders' meeting, 1 company passed the issuance review committee's approval, and 1 company was approved by the CSRC, with year - on - year changes of +1, +3, - 1, and +1 respectively. As of November 14, 5 listed companies obtained convertible bond issuance approvals, with a proposed issuance scale of 3.762 billion yuan; 7 companies passed the issuance review committee, with a total scale of 6.473 billion yuan. Laite Optoelectronics added a board of directors' plan last week, with a scale of 766 million yuan [3][57][63].

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Trends - In October, general fiscal revenue decreased by 0.6% year-on-year, compared to a 3.2% increase in September[1] - The five real estate-related taxes remained nearly flat year-on-year at -1.4%, while land sales revenue dropped by 27.3%, marking the lowest monthly growth since August of the previous year[2] - Tax revenue growth was relatively high at 8.6%, leading to a negative growth rate in general fiscal revenue due to the significant decline in land sales revenue[2] Group 2: Real Estate Tax Observations - Non-transaction taxes (urban land use tax, arable land occupation tax, property tax) increased by 6.4% year-on-year, contributing to the divergence from land sales revenue[3] - Transaction-related taxes (land value-added tax, deed tax) fell by 16%, correlating with the 27.3% drop in land sales revenue[3] Group 3: Land Sales Revenue Analysis - City investment platforms contributed 30% to 40% of land sales revenue, but this was based on unsustainable practices[4] - The proportion of land acquired by city investment platforms is expected to drop from 33.4% in 2024 to 24.8% in 2023, returning to 2021 levels[4] - The concentration of land sales revenue among the top 10 cities reached 48%, significantly higher than previous years, indicating a structural shift in the market[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Hunan Haili, with a target price of 10.5 CNY per share [2][8]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 was slightly weaker than expected, with total revenue of 1.479 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 13.36%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 198 million CNY, a slight decline of 1.24% year-on-year [2][8]. - The company successfully advanced its first stock incentive plan, completing the repurchase of approximately 16.76 million shares, accounting for 3% of the total share capital, at a price range of 6.87 CNY to 7.53 CNY per share [8]. - The demand for pest control due to vector-borne diseases is increasing, with optimistic prospects for key products like "Killing Agent" and "Qiazi" [8]. - The lithium battery cathode business is expected to benefit from technological advancements and market recovery, with a current capacity of 5,000 tons and plans to expand to 16,000 tons [8]. - The report forecasts revenue for 2025-2027 to be 2.7 billion CNY, 3.6 billion CNY, and 4.3 billion CNY respectively, with net profits of 300 million CNY, 390 million CNY, and 500 million CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11.9%, 32.2%, and 27.4% respectively [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024A is projected at 2.471 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.1%. For 2025E, revenue is expected to reach 2.67 billion CNY, with an 8.1% growth rate [4][9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 265 million CNY in 2024A, increasing to 297 million CNY in 2025E, reflecting a growth rate of -3.1% and 11.9% respectively [4][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.47 CNY for 2024A, increasing to 0.53 CNY for 2025E [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the wind power industry, particularly for companies like Mingyang Smart Energy [2]. Core Insights - The wind power industry is experiencing a recovery in pricing and profitability, driven by a combination of factors including policy changes and robust domestic and international demand [6][7]. - The profitability of wind turbine manufacturers is increasingly reliant on wind farm development and operation, as manufacturing margins have been under pressure due to price wars and competition [11][15]. - The trend of turbine size increasing is slowing down, leading to a more concentrated industry as smaller players exit due to unsustainable losses [5][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Profit Structure of Wind Turbine Manufacturers - Wind turbine manufacturers derive profits from two main areas: equipment manufacturing and wind resource development, with the latter gaining a larger share of profits over time [11][15]. - The manufacturing sector has seen a significant decline in profit margins, with some companies reporting negative margins due to intense price competition [37][39]. 2. Recovery of Turbine Prices and Industry Profitability - Turbine prices have bottomed out and are expected to rise, with a projected increase of approximately 10% from the previous year [40][56]. - The industry is witnessing a shift from low-price competition to a focus on quality and sustainable pricing, supported by new policies aimed at curbing price wars [45][46]. 3. Domestic Demand and International Market Opportunities - Domestic wind power installation is projected to exceed 120 GW in 2025, driven by a robust bidding environment and government support for large-scale projects [60][62]. - Internationally, markets in Europe and emerging regions in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are expected to see significant growth, with annual additions projected to double in the next five years [5][60]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Goldwind Technology, Mingyang Smart Energy, and Sany Heavy Energy, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the recovery in turbine prices and strong demand [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the aviation industry, indicating an expectation of growth exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [4][60]. Core Insights - The aviation industry is experiencing a positive turning point, with passenger load factors reaching their highest levels of the year and ticket prices showing a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [4][3]. - The supply-demand dynamics are more favorable than in 2019 and 2024, with structural improvements in demand, particularly in business travel and cross-border travel [4]. - The report highlights the constraints on supply due to maintenance backlogs and low growth in new aircraft introductions, reinforcing the supply-side constraints [4]. Summary by Sections October Data Analysis - In October, the ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growth rates were led by Spring Airlines at 16.5%, followed by China Southern Airlines at 7.5% and China Eastern Airlines at 6.8% [1]. - The RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) growth rates for October were also led by Spring Airlines at 20.1%, with China Eastern Airlines at 10.6% and China Southern Airlines at 8.8% [1]. - Cumulatively from January to October, Spring Airlines again led with ASK growth of 11.7% and RPK growth of 11.4% [1]. Passenger Load Factor - In October, the passenger load factors were highest for Spring Airlines at 93.2%, followed by China Southern Airlines at 87.9% and China Eastern Airlines at 87.5% [3]. - Year-to-date, Spring Airlines maintained a load factor of 91.5%, slightly down by 0.2% year-on-year, while China Southern Airlines improved by 1.5% to 85.9% [3]. Fleet Size - As of October 2025, the five listed airlines collectively added 7 aircraft, with a year-on-year fleet size increase of 3.5% [3][15]. Pricing Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in October showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, with air ticket prices rising by 8.9% [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for investments in major airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, highlighting their potential for elasticity in performance [4]. - It also recommends focusing on low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines and regional leaders like Huaxia Airlines, which are expected to reach sustainable operational turning points [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the AI and SaaS integration trend in the computer industry [2]. Core Insights - The integration of AI and SaaS is an inevitable trend due to their technological complementarity, enhancing operational efficiency and user experience across various sectors [6][7]. - The global AI market is projected to reach $368.85 billion by 2025, with significant growth in AI-related investments expected in 2024 [12][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of specific sectors such as advertising, programming, and education in the AI and SaaS integration landscape [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. AI and SaaS Integration - AI and SaaS have complementary technologies, making their integration a necessity [10]. - The commercial viability of AI relies on specific application scenarios, which SaaS can provide [12]. - The cloud computing market in China is expected to exceed 2.1 trillion yuan by 2027, supporting AI applications in SaaS [17][20]. 2. Sector-Specific Applications - **AI + Advertising**: AI enhances advertising efficiency and effectiveness, with the AI marketing market projected to reach $35.54 billion by 2025 [28][30]. - **AI + Programming**: The global AI coding tools market is expected to reach $6.7 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 25.2% [40]. - **AI + Education**: The AI education market is projected to grow from $2.46 billion in 2024 to $28.22 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of approximately 35.66% [54][56]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific companies within the AI + SaaS sectors: - For AI + Advertising: Google, Meta, APPlovin, Unity [64] - For AI + Programming: Gitlab [64] - For AI + Education: Duolingo [64]