债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 行业表现：今日正股行业指数下降占比过半，共计 23 个行业下跌。A 股市场 中，跌幅前三位行业为煤炭（-2.27%）、农林牧渔（-1.95%）、钢铁（-1.34%）； 涨幅前三位行业为电子（+2.27%）、通信（+2.15%）、国防军工（+1.65%）。 转债市场共计 17 个行业上涨，涨幅前三位行业为通信（+3.75%）、国防军工 （+2.65%）、机械设备（+1.63%）；跌幅前三位行业为煤炭（-1.04%）、有色金 属（-0.90%）、纺织服饰（-0.77%）。 (1) 收盘价：大周期环比-0.20%、制造环比+0.88%、科技环比+1.97%、大消费 环比-0.27%、大金融环比+0.02%。 (2) 转股溢价率：大周期环比+0.59pct、制造环比+0.3pct、科技环比-0.13pct、 大消费环比+0.88pct、大金融环比+0.071pct。 转债市场日度跟踪 20260127 ❖ 市场概况：今日转债缩量上涨，估值环比压缩 指数表现：中证转债指数环比上涨 0.15%、上证综指环比上涨 0.18%、深证成 指环比上涨 0.09%、创业板指环比上涨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The real - estate bond market has gone through stages of risk accumulation, concentrated outbreak, and current orderly resolution and yield gaming. The recent Vanke bond extension event has led to significant fluctuations in the real - estate sector's valuation, prompting a re - examination of the industry's credit boundaries and pricing logic. The report backtracks the adjustment and repair patterns of the real - estate bond sector, explores potential stabilization signals in the current market adjustment, and outlines investment strategies [2][12]. - Currently, the bottom of credit expectations has been initially established, and the easing of pessimistic sentiment in the bond market provides conditions for the valuation repair of real - estate bonds. However, the probability of a wide - range special support policy for central and local state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds in the short term is low, and the spreads of different issuers may diverge, with high - quality issuers having stronger valuation repair momentum [5][43]. - The investment strategy focuses on 1 - 2 - year central and local state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds to capitalize on valuation repair opportunities [6][44]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Past: Review of the Adjustment Characteristics of the Real - Estate Bond Sector after Public Opinion Shocks - **Stage One (2020)**: Industry risks gradually accumulated, with a few real - estate enterprises defaulting. The excess spread of real - estate bonds did not widen significantly, and the industry's credit risk continued to build up. The spill - over effect of the Yongmei default on real - estate bonds was not immediately apparent [3][13]. - **Stage Two (2021 - 2023)**: The number of defaulting real - estate enterprises increased significantly, and at the same time, policies to stabilize the real - estate market were intensively introduced. The excess spread of AA - rated real - estate bonds fluctuated widely at high levels, with the widening and narrowing cycles often around 5 months [3][14]. - **Stage Three (Since 2024)**: The industry's credit risk is being cleared in an orderly manner, with occasional local risks. Real - estate bonds with high coupon rates are attractive, becoming a target for institutions to seek excess returns in an "asset shortage" environment. The excess spread of real - estate bonds significantly narrowed during the alpha market of spread compression from April to August in 2024 and 2025, but then the credit spread widened [3][16]. 3.2 Current: Significant Adjustment of the Real - Estate Sector's Valuation since Vanke Announced the Proposed Extension 3.2.1 Weak Trading Sentiment and Significant Valuation Increases of Multiple Issuers in the Sector - Since Vanke announced the proposed extension of its bond, the trading prices of many real - estate enterprise bonds have significantly deviated from their valuations, and the valuation yields of issuers have generally increased. Some issuers, including central enterprises, local state - owned enterprises, mixed - ownership enterprises, and private enterprises, have been particularly affected. There is a risk of further increases in valuation yields [4][17][18]. 3.2.2 Signals of Stabilization in the Adjustment: Trading Sentiment, Issuance Situation, and Negative Public Opinion - **Trading sentiment**: It is becoming more moderate, with the trading deviation of real - estate bonds narrowing, and the proportion of TKN transactions stabilizing or rising, showing an initial trend [20][21]. - **Issuance situation**: The primary - market issuance of real - estate bonds has recovered, with the subscription multiple increasing, especially in the recent week [24]. - **Negative public opinion**: The market has become more "insensitive" to negative information. The Vanke event has fully fermented, and the risk of further transmission has narrowed [31]. 3.3 Outlook: Offensive Allocation Strategy after the Adjustment Stabilizes 3.3.1 Conditions for the Offensive Window: Comprehensive Judgment Based on Policies, Credit Risk Expectations, and Bond - Market Sentiment - **Policy aspect**: In the short term, the probability of a wide - range special support policy for central and local state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds is low, but targeted relief policies for high - risk issuers can be expected. If favorable policies are introduced, the repair process of real - estate bonds may accelerate [5][35][43]. - **Credit risk expectation aspect**: The market's pessimistic sentiment towards the real - estate industry's credit risk has reached the bottom. The debt disposal process of Vanke is an important factor affecting market sentiment. With the confirmation of Vanke's disposal plan, the short - term credit expectation bottom of real - estate bonds may be established [37]. - **Bond - market sentiment aspect**: When the bond - market sentiment is good and institutions have a high demand for returns, the spread repair momentum of real - estate bonds is stronger; otherwise, there is greater pressure for spread widening [39]. 3.3.2 Investment Strategy: Focus on 1 - 2 - Year Central and Local State - Owned Enterprise Real - Estate Bonds to Capitalize on Valuation Repair - The core of the current strategy is to moderately extend from the previously conservative bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year to 1 - 2 - year medium - to high - grade central and local state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds, which can provide more attractive coupon yields with relatively controllable risks [44]. - **Central enterprises**: They have strong shareholder backgrounds, sound finances, and are mainly located in core cities. Representative issuers include Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co., Ltd. and China Resources Land Limited. The 1 - 2 - year yield ranges from 2.10% to 2.70%, and the average excess spread ranges from 35 to 85 BP [6][45]. - **Local state - owned enterprises**: They are located in regions with good economic development, have strong shareholder backgrounds, and perform well in terms of profitability and solvency. Representative issuers include Shanghai Lujiazui (Group) Co., Ltd. and Guangzhou Urban Construction and Development Co., Ltd. The 1 - 2 - year yield ranges from 1.95% to 2.0%, and the average excess spread ranges from 15 to 20 BP [6][45].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that after a rise, the price of broiler chickens has slightly decreased, while the price of chick seedlings has remained high [2][9] - The report highlights that the supply of broiler chickens is currently tight due to external weather factors and diseases affecting survival rates, which initially supported price increases [9][12] - The report notes that the profitability of broiler farming has improved significantly, with a loss of 0.26 yuan per bird in December, a substantial increase in profitability compared to previous months [40][42] - The report suggests that the suspension of imports from France due to avian influenza outbreaks may create a supply gap, potentially improving industry conditions [45] Summary by Sections Market Overview - In December, the average price of broiler chickens was 3.68 yuan per jin, showing a trend of rising and then falling prices [9] - The average price of chick seedlings for white feather broilers was 3.56 yuan per bird, with prices fluctuating due to market demand and supply conditions [9][12] Production Capacity - As of December 2025, the average stock of parent broiler chickens was 21.3 million sets, down 2.7% year-on-year, while the average stock of backup parent chickens was 15.73 million sets, down 5.1% year-on-year [33][41] - The average stock of grandparent broiler chickens was 1.3586 million sets, up 6.4% year-on-year, indicating a stable supply in the upstream breeding segment [32][35] Sales Performance - In December, the sales volume of broiler meat from Shengnong Development reached 147,600 tons, an increase of 14.24% year-on-year, while the sales volume of processed chicken products increased by 51.38% [21][27] - The report also highlights that the sales volume of chick seedlings for the year reached 4.481 billion birds, a 2% increase year-on-year [21] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Shengnong Development, Yisheng Shares, and Hefeng Shares, as they are expected to benefit from the potential supply gap and ongoing improvements in domestic breeding efficiency [45]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 伊朗地缘"灰犀牛"：哪些价格受影响？ 主要观点 伊朗骚乱似有平息，但"灰犀牛"的地缘风险仍存。本篇报告主要概述伊朗的 基本经济国情，侧重自然资源、优势产业和出口结构。 ❖ 一、伊朗近期发生了什么？ 经济困境引发各地抗议，逐步升级为伊朗全国大规模骚乱，伤亡人数是过往二 十余年动荡之最。去年 11 月开始，伊朗多地因物价上涨、货币贬值等问题发 生抗议，随后扩散至全境并出现暴力骚乱和大规模伤亡，期间全面断网 8 天。 1 月下旬局势趋于缓和。1 月 21 日伊朗官方称近期骚乱事件导致 3117 人死亡。 地缘冲突风险仍存。1 月 22 日特朗普表示美国"大型舰队"正驶向伊朗周边。 从经济地理位置看，伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡具有强大控制力。霍尔木兹海峡是全 球能源贸易的咽喉要道，流经该海峡的石油和其他液体燃料贸易量约占全球消 费量约 20%，占全球海运贸易量约 27%，流经该海峡的 LNG 贸易量约占全球 LNG 贸易量的 20%，约占全球天然气贸易量的 9%。 ❖ 二、伊朗的主要自然资源 1、石油：全球探明原油储量第三，目前日产量约 320 万桶/日，出口量约 180 万桶/日。伊朗 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that after a rise, the price of broiler chickens has slightly decreased, while the price of chick seedlings has stabilized at a high level [2][9] - The report highlights that the supply of broiler chickens is currently tight due to external weather factors and chicken diseases affecting survival rates, which initially supported price increases [9] - The report suggests that the recent outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in France may lead to a supply gap, potentially improving industry conditions [45] Summary by Sections Market Overview - In December, the average transaction price of broiler chickens was 3.68 yuan per jin, showing a trend of rising first and then falling [9] - The average price of chick seedlings for December was 3.56 yuan per chick, with prices initially rising due to demand from large-scale farms [9][12] Production Capacity - As of December 2025, the average stock of parent broiler chickens was 21.3 million sets, down 2.7% year-on-year [3][33] - The average stock of grandparent broiler chickens was 1.3586 million sets, up 6.4% year-on-year [32][35] Financial Performance - In December, the profit from broiler chicken farming was -0.26 yuan per bird, while the profit from hatcheries was 0.77 yuan per bird [40][42] - The report notes that the sales volume of broiler meat for Shengnong was 147,600 tons, up 14.24% year-on-year, and for Xiantan, it was 55,100 tons, up 11.99% year-on-year [21][27] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Shengnong Development, Yisheng Shares, and Hefeng Shares due to potential supply gaps and ongoing improvements in domestic breeding efficiency [45]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [17]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in AI infrastructure, particularly in the development of AI-native storage solutions and databases, which are crucial for the evolution of large models and AI applications [2][6]. - The collaboration between major players like NVIDIA and Alibaba Cloud is accelerating the progress of AI databases and vector databases, which are expected to play a central role in the AI infrastructure landscape [2][6]. - The vector database market is projected to grow significantly, with an estimated market size of USD 2.6521 billion by 2025 and USD 8.9457 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.5% during the forecast period [6]. Industry Overview - The computer industry comprises 337 listed companies with a total market capitalization of CNY 64,270.02 billion and a circulating market value of CNY 58,082.25 billion [3]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past 12 months has been 39.5%, with a relative performance of 16.7% compared to the benchmark index [4]. Key Developments - NVIDIA's BlueField-4 data processor supports the next-generation AI-native storage infrastructure, enhancing inference efficiency through high-bandwidth context state sharing among AI systems [6]. - Alibaba Cloud's PolarDB aims to evolve into an "AI-ready database," focusing on multi-modal AI data lakes and efficient search capabilities [6]. - Companies like Dameng Data, StarRing Technology, and Massive Data are making strides in AI infrastructure, with innovative solutions and significant investments in AI capabilities [6].

Policy Overview - Trump proposed seven key policies to address "Affordability" issues, including instructing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in MBS to lower mortgage rates and limiting large institutional investors from buying homes to reduce prices[1][17]. - Other proposals include setting a credit card interest rate cap at 10%, issuing tariff rebates, requiring tech companies to cover infrastructure costs, a "Great Healthcare Plan," and banning dividends and buybacks for defense contractors while capping executive pay[1][11]. Feasibility Assessment - Two policies (MBS purchases and defense contractor restrictions) do not require congressional approval and have already begun implementation[4][29]. - Four policies may require legislation: limiting institutional home purchases, setting credit card rate caps, issuing tariff rebates, and the healthcare plan, which face potential opposition from both parties[3][6][35]. Probability of Implementation - Betting markets indicate a less than 45% chance for the implementation of limiting institutional home purchases, credit card rate caps, and tariff rebates within the year, with the highest probability (44%) for the credit card cap and the lowest (32%) for tariff rebates[2][7][42]. Potential Impacts - The MBS purchase could help narrow mortgage spreads, with estimates suggesting a potential reduction of 113 basis points in mortgage spreads if $200 billion is added[8][54]. - Limiting institutional purchases may only affect about 3% of the housing market, as institutions owning over 1,000 homes represent a small market share[2][56]. - A 10% cap on credit card rates could reduce rates by 11%, but the net interest margin for credit card businesses is only 9%-10%, potentially making the business unprofitable[9][12]. - Defense contractor dividends and buybacks account for 1%-3% of market value, with executive compensation linked to performance metrics rather than stock buybacks[12][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agricultural sector [1] Core Insights - The USDA has raised global corn and soybean production forecasts, indicating a positive outlook for these commodities [1] - The report highlights adjustments in global agricultural supply and demand, with specific increases in corn, soybean, wheat, and rice production and consumption [5] Summary by Sections Corn - Global corn production for the 2025/26 year is forecasted at 1.296 billion tons, an increase of 1.02% from previous estimates, driven by higher yields and increased harvested area [8] - China's corn production is expected to rise to 301 million tons, a 2.12% increase, while consumption remains stable at 321 million tons [10] Soybeans - Global soybean production is projected at 425.68 million tons, a 0.74% increase, with Brazil's production rising significantly due to favorable weather [19] - China's soybean production is expected to decline to 20.90 million tons, with consumption decreasing slightly to 133 million tons [25] Wheat - Global wheat production is forecasted at 842.17 million tons, a 0.52% increase, with demand also rising, leading to a higher stock-to-use ratio of 33.77% [32] - China's wheat production is expected to be stable at 140 million tons, with a stock-to-use ratio projected to rise to 84.36% [37] Rice - Global rice production is adjusted to 541 million tons, with a slight increase in demand, resulting in a stock-to-use ratio of 35.12% [43] - China's rice production is expected to increase to 146 million tons, with consumption also rising, leading to a stock-to-use ratio of 71.46% [43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 319.85 [2][7]. Core Insights - The company has conducted two share buybacks, demonstrating confidence in its long-term growth logic. The buybacks occurred on January 19 and 21, 2026, costing HKD 251 million and HKD 96 million, respectively, for 140,000 and 50,000 shares at average prices of HKD 179.60 and HKD 192.98 per share [2]. - The financial projections indicate significant revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach HKD 13,038 million in 2024, growing to HKD 64,823 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 106.9% in 2024 and 23.4% in 2027 [2][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from HKD 3,125 million in 2024 to HKD 21,734 million in 2027, with a remarkable growth rate of 188.8% in 2024 and 24.4% in 2027 [2][8]. - The company is focusing on diversifying its IP matrix and enhancing its platform-based operational capabilities, which are expected to meet the growing demand in the collectible toy market [2][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million HKD) is forecasted as follows: 2024A: 13,038, 2025E: 37,195, 2026E: 52,533, 2027E: 64,823 [2][8]. - Net profit (in million HKD) is projected as follows: 2024A: 3,125, 2025E: 12,235, 2026E: 17,475, 2027E: 21,734 [2][8]. - Earnings per share (in HKD) are expected to rise from 2.33 in 2024 to 16.20 in 2027 [2][8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 84 in 2024 to 12 in 2027, indicating improved valuation as earnings grow [2][8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" for the insurance sector, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [8][21]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in public fund holdings in the insurance sector, with the total holding rising to 2.29% in Q4 2025, reflecting a 1.19 percentage point increase from the previous quarter. This increase is attributed to improved annual performance expectations, public fund reforms, and the initiation of year-end promotional activities [3][6][7]. - The report notes that individual stock holdings within the insurance sector have generally increased, with China Ping An's holding rising to 1.20%, a substantial increase of 0.73 percentage points. Other companies like China Life and New China Life also saw increases in their holdings [6][7]. - The long-term interest rates are expected to stabilize in 2025, with a potential upward trend in 2026, which may alleviate previous concerns regarding "interest spread losses" and positively impact the valuation of the life insurance sector [6][7]. Summary by Sections Public Fund Holdings - The overall non-bank financial holdings increased by 1.19 percentage points, with the insurance sector's holdings at 2.29% and the securities sector at 0.84%. The multi-financial sector saw a decrease to 0.17% [3][4]. - The report provides a detailed breakdown of public fund holdings in major insurance companies, indicating a general trend of increased investment in the sector [9]. Market Dynamics - The report attributes the increase in public fund holdings to three main factors: reduced performance pressure due to base changes, structural market opportunities despite some adjustments, and the initiation of promotional activities by listed insurance companies [7][8]. - The anticipated performance of the insurance sector is expected to remain strong, supported by the equity market and the demand for savings products from residents [8][10]. Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies for investment, including China Taiping, China Ping An, China Life H, and China Pacific Insurance, based on their expected performance and market conditions [10].