Investment Rating - The investment rating for the environmental protection industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The environmental sector saw a slight decline in fund holdings, with a total market value of 7.5 billion compared to 8.06 billion in the previous quarter [3][14] - The environmental sector index increased by 1.66%, underperforming the broader market, which rose by 1.67% [3][9] - Key segments within the environmental sector showed varied performance, with the resource recovery segment rising by 8.32% and other segments like solid waste management and water treatment also showing positive growth [3][9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of July 25, the environmental sector index increased by 1.66%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.67% to 3593.66 [3][9] - The top-performing sectors included construction materials and coal, while banking and utilities lagged behind [3][9] Fund Holdings - In Q2 2025, the total market value of fund holdings in the environmental sector was 7.5 billion, accounting for 0.1% of total fund holdings, down from 8.06 billion in Q1 [3][14] - The garbage incineration segment had the highest market value among holdings, with significant increases in fund ownership for companies like Huanlan Environment and Shanghai Washba [14][20] Industry Dynamics - A significant project, the first integrated green electricity supply project for data centers, was launched in Inner Mongolia, aligning with national carbon neutrality goals [24] - Sichuan Province announced a special bond issuance of 85.26698 billion, focusing on project construction and repayment of government debts [25] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the "14th Five-Year Plan" will maintain high demand for energy conservation and environmental protection, with a focus on water and waste incineration sectors as stable investment opportunities [45][46] - Key recommendations include Huanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, with additional attention to companies like Wangneng Environment and Junxin Co. [46]

Monetary Market Overview - The central bank conducted a net liquidity withdrawal of 70.5 billion CNY through OMO this week, while on Friday, it injected 200 billion CNY via MLF[3] - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos rose by 0.45 trillion CNY to 7.70 trillion CNY, although it fell below the previous week by Friday[3] - The funding gap index dropped to -5012 on Tuesday but rebounded to -764 on Thursday, before falling again to -918 on Friday, remaining above last week's -3145[3] Bond Market Insights - The actual net payment of government bonds this week was 271 billion CNY, with cumulative new general bonds issued in 2025 reaching 517.4 billion CNY and new special bonds at 2.5944 trillion CNY[4] - The bond market experienced increased volatility, with concerns about a potential shift in monetary policy due to the central bank's actions[21] - The issuance scale of government bonds in July was 2.44 trillion CNY, with a net financing scale of 1.25 trillion CNY, which is approximately 150 billion CNY lower than expected[4] Institutional Behavior - Large banks' net financing fell below 4 trillion CNY, while the overall rigid net financing from banks reached a new low since late May[3] - Non-bank rigid financing saw a decrease followed by an increase, remaining above last week, with money market funds and other products showing an upward trend[3] - The cross-month progress in the interbank market was 19.9%, slightly below the 20-24 year average by 0.3 percentage points, but higher than the same period in 2022 and 2023[19]

全球 AI 竞赛开启， 看好海内外 AI 产业链有望共振 行业研究 [行业周报 Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 电子 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 27 日 [Table_Author] 莫文宇 电子行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522090001 邮 箱：mowenyu@cindasc.com 杨宇轩 电子行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525010001 邮箱：yangyuxuan@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 全球 AI 竞赛开启，看好海内外 AI 产业 链有望共振 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 27 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [Table_Summary ummary] ] 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 ➢ 本周电子细分 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not specify an explicit investment rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The joint statement by China and Europe on climate change emphasizes the commitment to sustainable development and global just transition, focusing on the core principles of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement [3][12] - The report highlights the importance of accelerating global renewable energy deployment and enhancing bilateral cooperation in energy transition and climate adaptation [3][12] - The Asian Climate Risk Regulatory Policy Report by UNEP FI underscores Asia's critical role in global climate change mitigation and adaptation, with 60% of global greenhouse gas emissions originating from the region [4][21] ESG Financial Products Tracking - As of July 26, 2025, China has issued 3,632 ESG bonds with a total outstanding amount of 5.61 trillion RMB, where green bonds account for 61.99% of the total [5][23] - The market has 908 existing ESG products with a total net asset value of 10,218.02 billion RMB, where ESG strategy products represent the largest share at 50.34% [5][33] - There are 1,014 existing ESG bank wealth management products, with pure ESG products making up 54.83% of the total [5][39] Index Tracking - As of July 25, 2025, major ESG indices have shown positive performance, with the WanDe All A Sustainable ESG index increasing by 2.26% and the CSI 300 ESG Leading index rising by 0.96% [7][40] Expert Opinions - The UN Secretary-General stated that the global transition to renewable energy is "irreversible," urging governments to submit comprehensive new climate plans before COP30 [42] - An expert from the National Energy Administration emphasized the need for traditional industries to undergo deep green transformation, particularly in sectors like steel and petrochemicals [15][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Risk preference increase impacts the bond market, with significant increases in short - to medium - term credit spreads. Credit spreads mostly rise, with larger increases in the short - to medium - term, and only spreads of 5 - year low - to medium - grade and 7 - year bonds narrowing [2][5]. - This week, most urban investment bond spreads rise. Spreads of external rating AAA, AA +, and AA platforms all increase by about 4BP [2][11]. - Industrial bond spreads generally rise by about 4BP. Central and local state - owned enterprise and mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads rise by 4 - 5BP, and private real estate bond spreads increase by 15BP [2][17]. - The yields of secondary and perpetual (two - type) bonds all rise. The spreads of 3 - to 5 - year high - to medium - grade two - type bonds increase significantly, and their overall performance is weaker than that of ordinary credit bonds [2][27]. - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds remain flat, and the excess spreads of urban investment bonds decline slightly [2][32]. Summary by Directory 1. Risk preference increase impacts the bond market, with significant increases in short - to medium - term credit spreads - Domestic commodity prices rise sharply due to the expected "anti - involution" policy, and the A - share market hits a new high this year. The adjustment of interest - rate bonds intensifies, with the yields of 1Y, 3Y, and 5Y China Development Bank bonds rising by 4BP, 8BP, and 10BP respectively, and those of 7Y and 10Y bonds rising by 9BP [5]. - Some institutional liabilities are affected, leading to large - scale selling of credit bonds and a significant rise in yields. The yields of 1Y credit bonds of all grades rise by 10 - 11BP; the yields of 3Y AA and above - grade credit bonds rise by 10 - 11BP, and those of AA - grade bonds rise by 7BP; the yields of 5Y AA + and above - grade credit bonds rise by 11BP, and those of other grades rise by 6 - 8BP; the yields of 7Y AA + and above - grade credit bonds rise by 5 - 6BP, and those of AA - grade bonds rise by 3BP; the yields of 10Y AA + and above - grade bonds rise by 10 - 12BP, and those of AA - grade bonds rise by 8BP [5]. - Credit spreads mostly rise, with larger increases in the short - to medium - term. Only spreads of 5 - year low - to medium - grade and 7 - year bonds narrow. Rating spreads and term spreads show obvious differentiation [5]. 2. Spreads of all grades of urban investment bonds rise by about 4BP - This week, most urban investment bond spreads rise. Spreads of external rating AAA, AA +, and AA platforms all increase by 4BP. For AAA - grade platforms, spreads mostly rise by 3 - 4BP, with Hainan rising by 5BP, and Tianjin and Liaoning rising by 2BP; for AA + - grade platforms, spreads mostly rise by 3 - 4BP, with Jilin rising by 5BP, Yunnan and Tianjin rising by 2BP, and Qinghai remaining flat; for AA - grade platforms, spreads mostly rise by 2 - 5BP, with Gansu and Henan rising by 6BP, Hebei rising by 1BP, and Guizhou falling by 1BP [2][11]. 3. Industrial bond spreads generally rise by about 4BP - Industrial bond spreads generally rise by about 4BP. Central and local state - owned enterprise and mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads rise by 4 - 5BP, and private real estate bond spreads increase by 15BP. The spreads of Longfor rise by 3BP, those of Midea Real Estate rise by 4BP, those of CIFI rise by 160BP, those of Gemdale rise by 1BP, and those of Vanke fall by 4BP. Spreads of coal and steel bonds of all grades rise by 4BP respectively; spreads of chemical bonds of all grades rise by 3 - 4BP. The spreads of Shaanxi Coal Industry rise by 6BP, those of HBIS Group rise by 5BP, and those of Jinkong Coal Industry rise by 4BP [2][17]. 4. Spreads of 3 - to 5 - year two - type bonds rise significantly - This week, the yields of two - type bonds all rise. The spreads of 3 - to 5 - year high - to medium - grade two - type bonds increase significantly, and their overall performance is weaker than that of ordinary credit bonds. Specifically, the yields of 1Y secondary capital bonds of all grades rise by 7 - 8BP, and spreads rise by 2 - 3BP; the yields of 1Y perpetual bonds of all grades rise by 9BP, and spreads rise by 5BP. The yields of 3Y two - type bonds of all grades rise by 12 - 14BP, and spreads rise by 4 - 6BP. The yield of 5Y AAA - grade secondary capital bonds rises by 14BP, the yields of other grades rise by 17BP, and spreads rise by 7BP; the yields of perpetual bonds of all grades rise by 12 - 14BP, and spreads rise by 3 - 5BP [2][27][29]. 5. The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds remain flat, and the excess spreads of urban investment bonds decline slightly - This week, the excess spreads of AAA - grade industrial perpetual bonds remain flat. The spreads of 3Y industrial bonds remain at 3.82BP, at the 1.69% quantile since 2015, and the excess spreads of 5Y industrial perpetual bonds remain at 7.65BP, at the 4.55% quantile since 2015. The excess spreads of urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bonds decline by 0.12BP to 3.63BP, at the 0.29% quantile; the excess spreads of urban investment AAA 5Y perpetual bonds decline by 0.41BP to 9.80BP, at the 9.10% quantile [2][32]. 6. Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - Market - wide credit spreads, commercial bank two - type spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bond data, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015. Urban investment and industrial bond - related credit spreads are compiled and statistically analyzed by Cinda Securities R & D Center, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015 [38]. - Industrial and urban investment individual bond credit spreads = individual bond ChinaBond valuation (exercise) - yield to maturity of same - term China Development Bank bonds (calculated by linear interpolation method), and then the industry or regional urban investment credit spreads are obtained by arithmetic mean method [38]. - Excess spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds = credit spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds - credit spreads of same - grade and same - term bank ordinary bonds; excess spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds = credit spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds - credit spreads of same - grade and same - term medium - term notes [38]. - Both industrial and urban investment bonds select medium - term notes and public - offering corporate bonds as samples, and guarantee bonds and perpetual bonds are excluded. If the remaining term of an individual bond is less than 0.5 years or more than 5 years, it is excluded from the statistical sample. Industrial and urban investment bonds use external entity ratings, while commercial banks use ChinaBond implicit debt ratings [38].

6 月光伏装机增速环比大幅降低，天然气进口量同比下降 5.5% 【】【】[Table_Industry] 公用事业—电力天然气周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 26 日 15666646523.tcy 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 公用事业 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：010-83326723 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 化工行业： 唐婵玉 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500525050001 邮 箱：tangchanyu@cindasc. ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 齐鲁银行(601665) | 投资评级 | 增持 | | --- | --- | | 上次评级 | 增持 | [Table_Author] 张晓辉 银行业分析师 执业编号：S1500523080008 邮 箱：zhangxiaohui@cindasc.com 相关研究 [Table_OtherReport] 齐鲁银行2024 年报&2025 一季报点评： 业绩表现持续不俗，Q1 开启扩表新篇 章 齐鲁银行 2024 业绩快报点评：年末收 官业绩亮眼，资产质量持续向好 齐鲁银行 2024 三季报点评：利润增速 再提升，资本边际更为充足 [Table_Title] 齐鲁银行 2025 半年度业绩快报点评：营收利 润稳步增长，资产质量持续优化 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 07 月 26 日 [Table_S 事件： ummar 7 月 25y] 日晚，齐鲁银行发布 2025 年半年度业绩快报：2025 上半 年，实现营业收入 67.82 亿元，同比增长 5.76%；实现归母净 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Dividend-Adjusted Basis Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model adjusts the futures basis by incorporating the expected dividend impact during the contract's life, ensuring a more accurate representation of the basis[20] - **Model Construction Process**: The formula for the adjusted basis is: $ Adjusted\ Basis = Actual\ Basis + Expected\ Dividend\ Points $ The annualized basis is calculated as: $ Annualized\ Basis = \frac{(Actual\ Basis + Expected\ Dividend\ Points)}{Index\ Price} \times \frac{360}{Days\ to\ Maturity} $ This adjustment accounts for the dividend points expected during the contract's life, which are subtracted from the index level but reflected in the futures price[20][21][27] 2. Model Name: Continuous Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy involves continuously holding futures contracts to hedge the spot index, adjusting positions as contracts approach expiration[46] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Hedging Setup**: - Spot: Hold the total return index of the underlying - Futures: Use 70% of the capital for the spot and the remaining 30% for shorting futures contracts - **Rebalancing Rule**: - Hold the current month/quarter futures contract until 2 days before expiration - Close the expiring contract and open a new position in the next month/quarter contract at the closing price - **Assumptions**: No transaction costs, no slippage, and equal capital allocation between spot and futures[47] 3. Model Name: Minimum Discount Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy selects futures contracts with the smallest annualized discount to minimize basis risk[48] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Hedging Setup**: - Spot: Hold the total return index of the underlying - Futures: Use 70% of the capital for the spot and the remaining 30% for shorting futures contracts - **Selection Rule**: - Calculate the annualized basis for all available futures contracts - Select the contract with the smallest discount for hedging - Hold the selected contract for 8 trading days or until 2 days before expiration, whichever comes first - **Assumptions**: No transaction costs, no slippage, and equal capital allocation between spot and futures[48] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Dividend-Adjusted Basis Model - **IC Futures**: Current basis discount at -7.79%, improved from a weekly low of -8.57%[21] - **IF Futures**: Current basis discount at -1.74%, improved from a weekly low of -2.33%[27] - **IH Futures**: Current basis premium at 0.52%, down from a weekly high of 0.94%[32] - **IM Futures**: Current basis discount at -10.13%, improved from a weekly low of -11.86%[39] 2. Continuous Hedging Strategy - **IC Futures**: - Annualized Return: -2.87% (current month), -2.11% (quarterly)[50] - Volatility: 3.85% (current month), 4.74% (quarterly)[50] - Maximum Drawdown: -8.65% (current month), -8.34% (quarterly)[50] - **IF Futures**: - Annualized Return: 0.52% (current month), 0.69% (quarterly)[55] - Volatility: 2.99% (current month), 3.34% (quarterly)[55] - Maximum Drawdown: -3.95% (current month), -4.03% (quarterly)[55] - **IH Futures**: - Annualized Return: 1.08% (current month), 2.00% (quarterly)[59] - Volatility: 3.10% (current month), 3.52% (quarterly)[59] - Maximum Drawdown: -4.22% (current month), -3.76% (quarterly)[59] - **IM Futures**: - Annualized Return: -6.09% (current month), -4.50% (quarterly)[61] - Volatility: 4.73% (current month), 5.78% (quarterly)[61] - Maximum Drawdown: -14.01% (current month), -12.63% (quarterly)[61] 3. Minimum Discount Hedging Strategy - **IC Futures**: - Annualized Return: -1.09%[50] - Volatility: 4.64%[50] - Maximum Drawdown: -7.97%[50] - **IF Futures**: - Annualized Return: 1.33%[55] - Volatility: 3.12%[55] - Maximum Drawdown: -4.06%[55] - **IH Futures**: - Annualized Return: 1.75%[59] - Volatility: 3.12%[59] - Maximum Drawdown: -3.91%[59] - **IM Futures**: - Annualized Return: -3.89%[61] - Volatility: 5.58%[61] - Maximum Drawdown: -11.11%[61] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Cinda-VIX - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the market's expectation of future volatility for the underlying asset, with a term structure to capture different time horizons[64] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Derived from the implied volatility of options on the underlying index - Adjusted to reflect the characteristics of the Chinese market[64] - **Current Values**: - 30-day VIX: 21.24 (SSE 50), 20.56 (CSI 300), 28.18 (CSI 500), 25.00 (CSI 1000)[64] 2. Factor Name: Cinda-SKEW - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the skewness of implied volatility across different strike prices, capturing market sentiment on tail risks[74] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculated based on the implied volatility of out-of-the-money options - Higher values indicate greater concern for downside risks[74][75] - **Current Values**: - SKEW: 97.47 (SSE 50), 98.01 (CSI 300), 100.61 (CSI 500), 102.81 (CSI 1000)[75] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Cinda-VIX - **30-day VIX**: - SSE 50: 21.24[64] - CSI 300: 20.56[64] - CSI 500: 28.18[64] - CSI 1000: 25.00[64] 2. Cinda-SKEW - **SKEW**: - SSE 50: 97.47[75] - CSI 300: 98.01[75] - CSI 500: 100.61[75] - CSI 1000: 102.81[75]

Group 1 - The total share of actively managed equity funds decreased to 28,063 billion units in Q2 2025, a decrease of 1,080 billion units compared to Q1 2025 [2][7] - The median net redemption rate for existing actively managed equity funds decreased from 4.03% in Q1 2025 to 3.57% in Q2 2025, a change of 0.46 percentage points [2][11] - The number of high-position public funds increased in Q2 2025, with 48.04% of all sample equity funds holding over 90% in stocks, up 5.38 percentage points from Q1 2025 [2][21] Group 2 - Actively managed equity funds increased their positions in the financial and technology growth sectors, particularly in AI computing and banking [2][5] - The allocation to the communication sector saw the largest increase, moving into an overweight position and becoming one of the top five sectors [2][5] - The healthcare and military sectors also received significant increases in allocations, aligning with the performance of innovative drugs and military stocks in Q2 2025 [2][5] Group 3 - The allocation to mid-cap stocks (500 billion to 2 trillion) increased by 2.63 percentage points, while the allocation to stocks over 2 trillion decreased significantly [2][53] - The actively managed equity funds focused on increasing their holdings in the ChiNext board while reducing their positions in the main board and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2][35] - The concentration of holdings in industries and individual stocks decreased, with the top three industries' share rising to 38.12% in Q2 2025, while the top five and top ten industries' shares decreased [2][51]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electronic industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The electronic industry allocation ratio reached 18.3%, maintaining the top position in the market, with an overweight ratio of 7.0% [10][16] - The semiconductor sector is experiencing accelerated domestic substitution, with a positive outlook for the second half of the year [20] - The consumer electronics sector is benefiting from AI empowerment, with a focus on valuation recovery opportunities [29] - The components sector is seeing significant growth due to global AI infrastructure development [33] Summary by Sections Semiconductor Sector - Institutional holdings in the semiconductor sector accounted for 9.94%, a decrease of 1.06 percentage points from the previous quarter [20] - The second quarter saw a gradual recovery in downstream demand and orders returning to normal levels [20] - Key companies with increased institutional holdings include Huahong Semiconductor, Zhaoyi Innovation, and OmniVision [20] Consumer Electronics Sector - Institutional holdings in the consumer electronics sector were 3.16%, down 0.87 percentage points [29] - Companies like Industrial Fulian, Lens Technology, and Huakin Technology saw increased institutional holdings [29] - AI applications in both cloud and edge computing are expected to drive sales growth in consumer electronics [29] Components Sector - The components sector's institutional holdings increased to 3.73%, up 1.44 percentage points [33] - Benefiting from the global AI infrastructure boom, companies like Shenghong Technology and Huitian Technology received significant institutional support [33] - The sector is expected to experience a "Davis Double" effect due to strong demand from cloud vendors and sovereign AI investments [33] Optical and Optoelectronic Sector - Institutional holdings in the optical and optoelectronic sector were 0.74%, a slight decrease of 0.08 percentage points [3] - Companies like BOE Technology and TCL Technology saw increased institutional support [3] Electronic Chemicals Sector - The electronic chemicals sector maintained an institutional holding ratio of 0.49% [3] - Companies such as Anji Technology and Dinglong Co. received increased institutional investments [3]