Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The supply side is constrained, with the sample coal mine capacity utilization rates for thermal coal at 93.8% (+0.5 percentage points) and coking coal at 86.46% (+1.81 percentage points) [11][46] - Demand has shown a decrease in daily consumption in inland and coastal provinces, with inland provinces down by 37.80 thousand tons/day (-11.14%) and coastal provinces down by 12.50 thousand tons/day (-5.61%) [11][47] - The report anticipates that coal prices will continue to strengthen due to rigid supply constraints, seasonal demand increases, and maintenance impacts on transportation lines [11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Price Tracking - As of September 27, the market price for thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port is 703 RMB/ton, up by 4 RMB/ton [29] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1710 RMB/ton, an increase of 100 RMB/ton [31] 2. Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is reported at 93.8%, while for coking coal it is 86.46% [46] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has decreased, while coal inventories have increased [47] 3. Industry Performance - The coal sector has shown a decline of 1.44% this week, underperforming compared to the broader market [14][17] - The report highlights that the coal sector remains characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividends, indicating a strong investment opportunity [12][14] 4. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the coal sector is likely to experience a tightening supply-demand balance over the next 3-5 years, with high barriers to entry and strong cash flow characteristics for quality coal companies [12][11] - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with stable operations and strong performance, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [12]

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector is expected to continue improving due to the traditional peak season combined with production restrictions [1][2] - Despite facing supply-demand contradictions and overall profit decline, the steel demand is anticipated to stabilize or slightly increase due to government policies supporting growth in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing [3][2] - The industry is likely to benefit from a tightening supply situation and increasing industry concentration, leading to a stable overall supply-demand landscape [3][2] Supply Situation - As of September 26, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in sampled steel companies is 90.9%, an increase of 0.51 percentage points week-on-week [25] - The average daily pig iron production is 2.4236 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 1.34% [25] - The total production of five major steel products reached 7.536 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.33% [25] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.741 million tons as of September 26, with a week-on-week increase of 2.79% [34] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 104,000 tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 2.41% [34] Inventory Situation - The social inventory of five major steel products was 10.892 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.10% [42] - The factory inventory of five major steel products was 4.214 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.72% [42] Price & Profit Situation - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,497.6 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.28% [48] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces was 14 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 36.36% [57] - The average cost of pig iron was 2,366 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 15 yuan/ton [57] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 787 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 1.87% [73] - The price of coking coal at the port was 1,710 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 100 yuan/ton [73] Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on regional leading enterprises with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies with strong cost control and scale effects [3][2] - Companies such as Shandong Steel, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [3][2]

Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank's OMO net injection was CNY 640.6 billion, and MLF net injection was CNY 300 billion during the week of September 22-26, 2025[7] - The average DR001 in September remained below 1.4%, indicating stable liquidity despite the central bank's net withdrawal actions[28] - The central bank's Q3 monetary policy meeting maintained a positive tone, emphasizing the need to implement existing policies effectively[29] Market Behavior and Trends - The interbank market's cross-quarter progress reached 50.4%, exceeding the 20-24 year average by 7.7 percentage points, reflecting heightened risk aversion among institutions[20] - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos increased to CNY 7.27 trillion, despite a notable drop on Friday[15] - Non-bank institutions showed a mixed trend in rigid financing, with a decrease in insurance and other products, while money market funds saw a significant increase[15] Government Debt and Financing - The net financing scale of government bonds in September was CNY 1.21 trillion, a decrease of approximately CNY 120 billion compared to August[4] - Upcoming government bond payments are expected to rise from CNY 910 billion to CNY 1.927 trillion, primarily concentrated on Monday[4] - The issuance plan for local government bonds in Q4 is projected at CNY 7.1 trillion, with a focus on new special bonds[4]

- The market maintained a volatile trend, with active equity funds shifting towards a barbell configuration[1][2][3] - As of September 26, 2025, the average position of active equity funds was approximately 90.31%[2][20] - Over the past three months, public funds have increased their allocation to large-cap growth stocks, with the allocation rising to 32.35%[3][27] - This week, active equity funds increased their allocation to the electronics industry by approximately 0.47 percentage points, reaching 18.72%[4][30] - The top five active equity funds with the highest net value growth this week were Southern Information Innovation Hybrid A, Nuohang Research Preferred Hybrid A, Oriental Artificial Intelligence Theme Hybrid A, Huian Runyang Three-Year Holding Hybrid A, and Yinhuaji Integrated Circuit Hybrid A, with weekly net value growth rates of 14.80%, 14.31%, 13.80%, 12.92%, and 12.58%, respectively[5][18][19]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The automotive sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with the A-share automotive sector lagging behind the broader market, showing a flat performance while the CSI 300 index increased by 1.07% [3][4] - Key news includes Chery Automobile's successful listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately HKD 9.145 billion, and the launch of the Li Auto i6 at a starting price of CNY 249,800 [21][22] - The report suggests focusing on various automotive manufacturers and parts suppliers, highlighting companies like BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Xpeng Motors for passenger vehicles, and China National Heavy Duty Truck and FAW Jiefang for commercial vehicles [3][21] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector underperformed the market, ranking 7th among the Shenwan first-level industries [3][4] - The passenger vehicle segment saw a decline of 0.94%, while the commercial vehicle segment dropped by 2.64% [3][4] 2. Industry News - Chery Automobile officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking the largest IPO of a car company in Hong Kong this year, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 70.7% in revenue from 2022 to 2024 [21] - The launch of the Li Auto i6, which features a length of 4950 mm and a price starting at CNY 249,800, is expected to enhance competition in the market [22] - The report highlights ongoing support policies for the automotive industry and the continuous introduction of new models [3][21] 3. Key Data Tracking - The report includes various price indices for raw materials relevant to the automotive industry, such as steel and aluminum prices, which are crucial for production costs [23][24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a clear long-term low-carbon transition goal and deepening energy cooperation between China and Russia [1][5] - The utility sector has shown resilience, with the power sector experiencing a slight increase while the gas sector faced a decline [5][15] - The report anticipates improvements in profitability and value reassessment for the power sector due to ongoing supply-demand tensions and market reforms [5][6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of September 26, the utility sector rose by 0.3%, outperforming the broader market, with the power sector up by 0.37% and the gas sector down by 0.63% [5][13] - The report notes that the electricity market is expected to see a gradual increase in prices due to ongoing reforms and supply-demand dynamics [5][6] Power Industry Data Tracking - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (Q5500) increased to 703 CNY/ton, a weekly rise of 4 CNY/ton [5][23] - Coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port decreased to 5.4 million tons, down 750,000 tons week-on-week [5][30] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces was reported at 3.014 million tons, a decrease of 378,000 tons/day, with an available supply of 30.27 days [5][32] Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking - The LNG ex-factory price index in Shanghai was 4,016 CNY/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 20.66% [5][57] - The EU's natural gas supply for week 38 was 5.46 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 14.5% [5][63] - Domestic natural gas consumption in July was 36.17 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [5][6] Key Industry News - The report mentions a significant energy supply contract between Russia and China, described as unprecedented, which is expected to enhance export potential and regional development [5][6] - The total electricity consumption in August grew by 5.0% year-on-year, with significant contributions from various sectors [5][6] Investment Recommendations - For the power sector, the report suggests focusing on leading coal power companies and those in regions with tight electricity supply [5][6] - In the natural gas sector, companies with low-cost long-term gas sources and receiving station assets are expected to benefit from market conditions [5][6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark [148]. Core Insights - The report highlights that domestic and international refining project price differentials have shown a decline, with domestic key refining project price differential at 2338.86 CNY/ton, down by 1.52% week-on-week, while the international price differential is at 1062.71 CNY/ton, down by 9.32% [2][3]. - Brent crude oil average price for the week ending September 26, 2025, was 68.03 USD/barrel, reflecting a slight increase of 0.71% [2][3]. - The report indicates that the refining sector is facing mixed signals, with international oil prices experiencing volatility due to geopolitical factors and economic data from the US raising concerns about demand [2][14]. - In the chemical sector, prices for petrochemical products have generally weakened, with price differentials narrowing across various products [2][46]. - The polyester and nylon sectors are experiencing price declines, with polyester filament factories slightly reducing production while facing weak demand [2][81][115]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The report notes fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent and WTI prices increasing by 3.45 and 3.04 USD/barrel respectively from the previous week [14]. - Domestic diesel and gasoline prices have slightly decreased, with average prices at 6905.29 CNY/ton and 7995.14 CNY/ton respectively [14]. Chemical Sector - Polyethylene prices have shown slight declines, with LDPE, LLDPE, and HDPE averaging 9685.71 CNY/ton, 7148.00 CNY/ton, and 8000.00 CNY/ton respectively [53][66]. - The report indicates that the MMA market is showing price stability due to limited supply pressure, with MMA averaging 10242.86 CNY/ton [66]. Polyester & Nylon Sector - PX prices have decreased, with the current average at 5757.10 CNY/ton, while PTA prices are also down to 4537.86 CNY/ton [81][96]. - The report highlights that the demand for polyester filament remains weak, with production adjustments being made in response to inventory levels [81][123]. Market Performance - The report tracks the stock performance of six major refining companies, noting significant weekly changes, with Rongsheng Petrochemical up by 4.55% and Dongfang Shenghong down by 3.32% [134][135]. - The overall performance of the refining index has increased by 44.48% since September 4, 2017, outperforming both the oil and petrochemical industry indices [137].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Interest rate adjustment led to significant widening of credit spreads, with second - tier and perpetual (Two - Yong) bonds rising more than ordinary credit bonds. Credit bonds were sold off, and spreads of all maturities widened significantly. [2][5] - Urban investment bond spreads increased by 6 - 7BP overall. [2][9] - Industrial bond spreads rose slightly less than urban investment bonds, and the spreads of mixed - ownership and private real - estate bonds increased synchronously. [2][18] - Two - Yong bond spreads increased more than ordinary credit bonds, and medium - and long - term varieties were sold off on a large scale. [2][28] - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds remained flat, while those of urban investment perpetual bonds increased. [2][32] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Interest rate adjustment led to credit bond sell - off and significant widening of spreads across all maturities - Interest rate bonds recovered after a significant adjustment, with short - duration performing slightly better. The yield of 1Y China Development Bank bonds remained the same as last week, while the yields of 3Y and 5Y increased by 2BP, 7Y by 5BP, and 10Y Treasury bonds by 1BP. [2][5] - Credit bonds were sold off, and yields rose significantly, with medium - and long - end rising more. The yield of 1Y AA+ and above credit bonds rose 5 - 6BP, others 7BP; 3Y AA and above 7BP, AA - 5BP; 5Y AAA 10BP, others 7 - 10BP; 7Y all grades 9 - 10BP; 10Y all grades 10 - 11BP. [2][5] - Credit spreads of all maturities widened significantly. 1Y all grades 6 - 8BP, 3Y AA and above 5BP, AA - 3BP; 5Y AAA 7BP, others 4 - 5BP; 7Y all grades 5 - 6BP; 10Y all grades 9 - 10BP. [2][5] 3.2 Urban investment bond spreads increased by 6 - 7BP overall - External ratings: AAA, AA+, and AA platform spreads increased by 6BP, 7BP, and 6BP respectively compared to last week. [9] - Provincial, municipal, and county - level platform spreads all increased by 6BP. [15] 3.3 Industrial bond spreads rose slightly less than urban investment bonds, and the spreads of mixed - ownership and private real - estate bonds increased synchronously - Central and state - owned real - estate bond spreads increased by 4 - 5BP, mixed - ownership 14BP, and private real - estate 16BP. [18] - Coal bond spreads of all grades increased by 5BP; AAA steel 5BP, AA+ 3BP; chemical bonds of all grades 5BP. [18] 3.4 Two - Yong bond spreads increased more than ordinary credit bonds, and medium - and long - term varieties were sold off on a large scale - 1Y Two - Yong bond yields of all grades increased by 5 - 6BP, second - tier bond spreads 6BP, and perpetual bond yields 7BP. [29] - 3Y AAA second - tier bond yields increased by 12BP, spreads 10BP; other grades 10BP, spreads 7BP; perpetual bonds of all grades 12 - 13BP, spreads 10 - 11BP. [29] - 5Y second - tier capital bond yields of all grades increased by 16 - 18BP, spreads 14 - 16BP; perpetual bonds of all grades 12 - 14BP, spreads 10 - 12BP. [29] 3.5 The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds remained flat, while those of urban investment perpetual bonds increased - Industrial AAA3Y and AAA5Y perpetual bond excess spreads remained the same as last week at 14.52BP and 12.40BP, at the 36.98% and 25.46% quantiles since 2015 respectively. [32] - Urban investment AAA3Y perpetual bond excess spreads increased by 0.95BP to 7.58BP, at the 11.08% quantile; AAA5Y increased by 1.45BP to 8.96BP, at the 7.63% quantile. [32] 3.6 Credit spread database compilation instructions - Market credit spreads, Two - Yong spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond spreads are based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term notes and perpetual bonds data, with historical quantiles since early 2015. [38] - Industrial and urban investment individual bond spreads are calculated by subtracting the yield of the same - maturity China Development Bank bonds from the individual bond valuation, and then averaging. [38] - Excess spreads of bank second - tier capital bonds/perpetual bonds and industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds are calculated by subtracting the spreads of the same - grade and same - maturity ordinary bonds. [38] - Industrial and urban investment bonds select medium - term notes and public corporate bonds, excluding guaranteed and perpetual bonds. [38] - Bonds with a remaining maturity of less than 0.5 years or more than 5 years are excluded from the sample. [38] - Industrial and urban investment bonds use external subject ratings, while commercial banks use ChinaBond implicit bond ratings. [38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental sector [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing reform of residential heating prices, which is expected to improve profitability for heating companies as price adjustments are anticipated in the future [4][5] - The environmental sector has shown resilience, with the sector index rising by 1.1%, outperforming the broader market [11][12] - The report emphasizes the significant differences in profitability among residential heating companies, driven by local pricing policies and cost control measures [18][29] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of September 26, the environmental sector index increased by 1.1%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.2% to 3828.11 [11] - The top-performing sub-sectors included water governance and waste management, with increases of 2.7% and 2.83% respectively [12] Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the improvement in national ecological quality, with PM2.5 concentrations decreasing to 29.3 micrograms per cubic meter in 2024, a 16.3% reduction from 2020 [37] - The report notes that the government is pushing for deeper reforms in urban heating price mechanisms, with several regions already implementing price adjustments [26][28] Heating Price Reform - The report analyzes the pricing structure for residential heating, which is determined by a government-regulated cost-plus model [22] - It highlights that fuel costs constitute a significant portion of total heating costs, with an example showing that fuel, purchase heat, and auxiliary material costs accounted for 58% of total costs for a leading company in 2024 [29] - The report anticipates a trend of increasing heating prices, which could lead to a recovery in profitability for heating companies [26][28] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the environmental sector, particularly in energy conservation and resource recycling, is likely to maintain a high level of prosperity [52] - Key recommendations include companies such as Hanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, with additional attention to companies like Wangneng Environment and Junxin Co. [53]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The semiconductor sector has shown strong performance with a year-to-date increase of 50.51%, while other electronic segments have also experienced significant growth [2][9] - Micron's FY25 Q4 performance exceeded guidance, achieving revenues of $11.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 46% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22% [2][24] - The data center business is a key growth driver for Micron, with DRAM revenue reaching $9 billion, up 27% quarter-on-quarter, and HBM revenue nearing $2 billion [2][25] - Price increases for DRAM and NAND are expected to continue into Q4, with projected increases of 8%-13% for DRAM and 5%-10% for NAND [2][29] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The electronic sector has shown varied performance, with significant increases in semiconductor and consumer electronics, while components and optical electronics have seen declines [2][9] - Notable stock performances include Apple (+4.06%), Tesla (+3.36%), and Intel (+20.01%), while Micron saw a decline of -3.36% [2][12] Micron's Financial Performance - Micron's FY25 Q4 revenue was $11.3 billion, with a gross margin of 46%, up from 39% in the previous quarter [24] - DRAM accounted for 79% of total revenue, while NAND contributed 20% [25] - The guidance for FY26 Q1 indicates expected revenue of approximately $12.5 billion with a gross margin of 51.5% [26] Price Forecasts - DRAM prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints and demand shifts towards high-end server DRAM [2][27] - NAND Flash prices are also projected to increase, driven by a shortage of HDD supply and a shift in demand to QLC Enterprise SSDs [2][28]