No.202515 具身智能发展报告 (2025 年) 中国信息通信研究院 2026年1月 2024年8月 版权声明 本报告版权属于中国信息通信研究院和清华大学电子 工程系，并受法律保护。转载、摘编或利用其它方式使用本 报告文字或者观点的，应注明"来源：中国信息通信研究院 和清华大学电子工程系"。违反上述声明者，编者将追究其 相关法律责任。 前 言 2025 年《政府工作报告》首次将"具身智能"列入国家未来产 业重点培育清单。具身智能作为与物理实体融合的人工智能，正在成 为改变人类生产生活方式、推动社会智能跃升的重要引擎，有望催生 颠覆性终端产品装备，促进生产力和生产关系的深层次变革。 过去一年，具身智能在运动场上实现运动能力突破，在训练场中 学习作业技能，为真实场景应用打下基础。产业整体展现出"融合" "多元""繁荣"的发展特点：一是聚焦实现软硬、知行和虚实融合， 突破智能瓶颈。推进软硬融合创新，加速具身基础模型和本体结构的 软硬协同进化。关注知行合一，打造感知决策行动一体化的闭环链路。 打通虚实贯通路径，推动从仿真模拟到现实实践的迁移和部署。二是 打造"上天入海涉险"多元化产品，加速细分场景拓展。在具身智 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights the significant progress in the development of smart factories in China, with over 15 leading smart factories, more than 500 excellent smart factories, and over 35,000 basic smart factories established, indicating a robust growth trend in the sector [9][10] - The evolution of smart factories is characterized by five core directions: expansion of factory construction, innovation in R&D design paradigms, upgrading of production capabilities, optimization of production management, and advancement in operational management [10][41] - The report emphasizes the need for the manufacturing industry to transition from quantity-driven growth to quality-driven improvements, addressing the challenges posed by global economic slowdowns and changing market demands [17][18] Summary by Sections Overall Trends - The report identifies four main drivers for the transformation of smart factories: industrial upgrades, changing market demands, technological advancements, and international cooperation [17][19] - It outlines a future vision for smart factories that includes the integration of AI across all manufacturing processes, leading to autonomous decision-making and enhanced collaboration within the manufacturing ecosystem [20][41] Industry Practices - The report describes a four-tiered system for cultivating smart factories, which includes basic, advanced, excellent, and leading levels, aimed at promoting digital transformation in manufacturing [41][42] - It notes that over 90% of manufacturing sectors are now covered by smart factory initiatives, with a focus on enhancing traditional industries and empowering consumer-driven sectors [50][49] Regional Development - The report discusses the regional disparities in smart factory development, with eastern regions leading and central regions making breakthroughs, highlighting the importance of localized strategies [12][49] Technology and Industry - The report emphasizes the need for a deep integration of technology and manufacturing systems, advocating for a shift towards a more resilient and intelligent industrial foundation [12][53] Future Outlook - The report envisions a next-generation smart manufacturing landscape characterized by autonomous manufacturing, ecological collaboration, and a focus on sustainability [12][41]

Investment Trends - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period emphasizes investment in traditional industries focusing on high-end, intelligent, green, and integrated development, with a strong push for technological innovation and transformation[7] - Manufacturing investment growth rates from 2021 to 2024 are projected at 13.5%, 9.1%, 6.5%, and 9.2% respectively, indicating a robust investment environment despite external pressures[17] - In 2025, manufacturing investment growth slowed to 1.9%, a decline of 7.3 percentage points from 2024, highlighting a potential downturn in investment momentum[26] Structural Challenges - Investment efficiency has declined, with the incremental capital output ratio (ICOR) rising to approximately 14.9 from 13.1, indicating increased investment required for each unit of output[32] - The capacity utilization rate for major industrial enterprises was 74.6% in Q3 2025, reflecting a 0.5 percentage point decrease year-on-year, suggesting underutilization of resources[30] - Investment in high-tech manufacturing has significantly slowed, with growth rates dropping below overall manufacturing investment in 2024, indicating structural weaknesses in emerging sectors[32] Strategic Recommendations - Establish a dynamic identification system for investment directions aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan" to enhance investment effectiveness and adaptability[9] - Focus on four key investment areas: upgrading traditional industries, fostering emerging industries, planning for future industries, and optimizing supply in weak links[44] - Emphasize the importance of human capital alongside material capital in investment strategies to enhance overall economic returns[41]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the manufacturing industry or specific companies within it [2]. Core Insights - The manufacturing sector is a key component of the national economy and plays a crucial role in technological innovation and high-quality economic development [7]. - The report identifies a group of top 100 manufacturing companies that demonstrate strong operational quality, innovation capabilities, and industry leadership, serving as a benchmark for advanced development models in China's manufacturing sector [8][9]. - The report highlights the need for manufacturing companies to transition from scale-driven growth to quality and efficiency-oriented development, responding to both domestic and international challenges [18][19][20]. Summary by Sections 1. New Situations Facing High-Quality Development of Manufacturing Listed Companies - The domestic development environment is shifting from scale-driven growth to a focus on quality and efficiency [18]. - The international environment is increasingly characterized by intensified competition and geopolitical risks, affecting the global competitiveness of manufacturing companies [19]. - New requirements for high-quality development are emerging, necessitating a comprehensive assessment of the current state and challenges faced by manufacturing listed companies [20]. 2. Overall Development Overview of Manufacturing Listed Companies - The A-share market continues to expand, with a stable structure and an increasing number of manufacturing listed companies [22]. - Manufacturing companies are experiencing steady growth in scale, assets, and R&D investment, although profitability is under pressure [22][29]. 3. Analysis of the Top 100 High-Quality Development Manufacturing Companies - The top 100 companies have established a solid leading position in terms of scale, innovation, and industry influence, although structural disparities remain [39]. - These companies exhibit strong operational resilience and superior financial stability compared to the industry average [39]. - Innovation activities among the top 100 companies are increasingly systematic and efficient, contributing to their high-quality development [39][46]. 4. Existing Issues - There is a significant disparity in innovation capabilities among manufacturing companies of different sizes, with larger firms concentrating more resources on innovation [41]. - Some companies still rely on scale expansion and cost-driven strategies, lacking in value transformation and enhancement capabilities [41]. - The internationalization of manufacturing companies faces rising uncertainties and external pressures, necessitating improved risk management and compliance capabilities [41]. 5. Policy Recommendations - Recommendations include enhancing the innovation system, optimizing capital market functions, guiding leading companies to drive industry development, and promoting high-quality internationalization of manufacturing [9].

4000 95% 92% 91% 3500 89% 88% 90% 3000 2500 85% 1500 1000 75% 500 70% 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月 2024年 2025年 5G手机占比 权威发布: 2025 年 11 月国内市场手机出货量 3016. 1 万部, 其中 5G 手机占比 91. 6%。 一、国内手机市场总体情况 2025年 11月,国内市场手机出货量 3016.1 万部,同比增长 1.9%,其 中,5G 手机 2761.4 万部,同比增长 1.1%，占同期手机出货量的 91.6%。 2025年 1-11 月,国内市场手机出货量 2.82 亿部,同比增长 0.9%,其中, 5G 手机 2.44 亿部，同比增长 1.3%，占同期手机出货量的 86.6%。 2 3500 100% 90%89% 88920922% 83%83%82%85%83% 90% 80%790 3000 80% 2500 70% 60% 2000 50% 1500 40% 30% 1000 20% 500 10% ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The development of the productive service industry is a strategic choice for high-quality growth, emphasizing the integration of modern services with advanced manufacturing [6][10] - The productive service industry has shown significant growth, with its value-added increasing from 19.8 trillion RMB in 2016 to 41.1 trillion RMB in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate of 9.5% [6][43] - The report highlights five key characteristics of high-quality development in the productive service industry: integration, digital transformation, high-end upgrading, green transformation, and globalization [18][29][30] Summary by Sections Section 1: Importance of High-Quality Development - The productive service industry is defined as a specialized sector providing services to various industries, including manufacturing, agriculture, and construction [15][16] - The report identifies five transformative characteristics of the productive service industry: integration of services and manufacturing, digital transformation, high-end service development, green initiatives, and globalization [18][29][30] Section 2: Progress in the Productive Service Industry - The productive service industry has experienced a steady increase in scale, with its value-added growing significantly from 2016 to 2024 [43] - Key sectors such as information technology and technology services have seen substantial growth, with their value-added increasing by 14.2% and 17.7% respectively [43][44] - The number of operational entities in the productive service industry has reached approximately 38 million, with significant growth in sectors like human resource management and information services [46] Section 3: New Requirements and Challenges - The productive service industry faces challenges such as insufficient professional service capabilities and a need for strategic guidance to align with manufacturing upgrades [7][36] - The report emphasizes the necessity for a modern productive service system that meets the high-quality development requirements of the manufacturing sector [7] Section 4: Strategies for Promoting High-Quality Development - Recommendations include strengthening policy coordination, fostering internationally competitive enterprises, focusing on high-quality services in industrial sectors, and creating a conducive environment for the productive service industry [36][38][39]

Group 1: Manufacturing Industry Development Overview - The manufacturing industry in China is transitioning to a high-quality development phase, emphasizing innovation and efficiency over mere expansion[8] - Major cities are identified as key innovation hubs, contributing significantly to technological advancements and industrial upgrades[9] - The average labor productivity of industrial enterprises in strong manufacturing cities increased by 21.7% compared to the previous year, with total profits accounting for 47.3% of the national total[10] Group 2: Regional Distribution and Characteristics - The distribution of strong manufacturing cities remains stable, with 36 in the eastern region, 10 in the central region, and only 2 each in the northeastern and western regions[26] - Strong manufacturing cities collectively completed an export total of 14.3 trillion yuan, representing 59.6% of the national total[11] - The number of national-level manufacturing innovation centers in strong manufacturing cities accounts for 69.7% of the national total, indicating a concentration of innovation resources[10] Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - Despite achievements, challenges include widening development gaps, low efficiency in technology transfer, and structural contradictions in foreign trade[11] - The shift towards smart, green, and integrated manufacturing is seen as a new direction for industrial upgrades, expanding growth opportunities in urban areas[18] - The report highlights the need for cities to enhance their manufacturing capabilities and foster a collaborative ecosystem among enterprises, academia, and research institutions[11]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The development of government intelligent agents is driven by advancements in supply-side large models, increasing demand for government governance and public service, and top-level policy design for artificial intelligence [6][15][20] - Government intelligent agents are defined as AI systems embedded in government governance and public service that can autonomously perceive the environment, make independent decisions, and execute tasks [7][25] - The report emphasizes the transformative potential of government intelligent agents in reshaping governance models, enhancing service efficiency, and building collaborative ecosystems [8][57] Summary by Sections 1. Background and Definition of Government Intelligent Agents - The development of government intelligent agents is a result of the interplay between technological advancements, evolving governance needs, and supportive policies [15] - Government intelligent agents are characterized by their ability to autonomously perceive, decide, and execute tasks within the public service framework [22][25] 2. Technical Elements and Construction Framework - The report outlines the key technologies supporting government intelligent agents, including large language models and knowledge graphs, which form the basis for their understanding, planning, execution, and governance capabilities [30][31] - A "six horizontal and two vertical" architecture is proposed, encompassing infrastructure, data knowledge, intelligent capabilities, and application scenarios [38][39] 3. Application Status and Transformative Value - Government intelligent agents are transitioning from concept validation to large-scale application, with significant potential to enhance governance and service delivery [7][57] - The report highlights that the government sector is expected to account for 14% of all intelligent agent applications by 2024, indicating a strong growth trajectory [58] 4. Challenges and Issues - The report identifies challenges related to the reliability, feasibility, and controllability of government intelligent agents, including technological immaturity and adaptation barriers [8][30] 5. Development Recommendations and Outlook - Recommendations include strengthening top-level design, upgrading technological cores, enhancing scenario innovation, and fostering collaborative ecosystems [8][57]

Economic Overview - In 2024, China's wireless economy reached a scale of 7.9 trillion yuan, growing by 11.1% year-on-year, accounting for 5.9% of GDP[6] - The wireless industry contributed 3.4 trillion yuan, representing 43% of the wireless economy, while wireless empowerment accounted for 4.5 trillion yuan, or 57%[6] Industry Development - The wireless industry is a key driver of economic innovation, with significant advancements in sectors like mobile communication, low-altitude economy, and satellite internet[6] - By July 2025, the total number of 5G base stations in China reached 459.8 million, covering 86 sectors of the national economy[21] Technological Innovation - Continuous breakthroughs in wireless technology, including the transition to 5G-A, are expanding application fields and enhancing capabilities[42] - The low-altitude economy is projected to reach a market size of 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025, with significant policy support driving growth[45] Market Trends - The number of mobile phone users in China reached 1.815 billion, with 5G users accounting for 62.7% of the total[68] - Mobile IoT terminal users grew rapidly, reaching 2.78 billion, representing 60.6% of total mobile connections[69] Regulatory Support - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has implemented multiple spectrum management policies to support the high-quality development of the wireless industry[7] - Wireless radio management is crucial for ensuring the safe operation of wireless services and the high-quality development of the industry[25]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The video codec technology is crucial for processing massive video data, driving the development of the digital visual industry [6] - The evolution of video codec standards is closely tied to patent management, influencing both the efficiency of technology dissemination and the healthy development of the industry ecosystem [6][7] - The report analyzes the global landscape of standard-essential patents (SEPs) and standard proposals in the video codec field, focusing on H.264/AVC, H.265/HEVC, and H.266/VVC standards [8] Summary by Sections Video Codec Standardization and Industry Development - The market has formed a diversified video codec standard ecosystem influenced by technological evolution, commercial competition, and geopolitical factors [16] - The three main standard camps are H.26x/MPEG-x, AVS, and AVx, each playing a significant role in the global video codec market [27] Video Codec Industry Application - Video codec technology impacts various sectors, including streaming services, video conferencing, digital TV broadcasting, and video surveillance [28] - H.26x/MPEG-x standards are widely used across all application scenarios, while AVS standards are primarily applied in China, and AVx standards are gaining traction in the streaming domain [35] Standard-Essential Patent Utilization - The video codec field has two main patent pool management organizations: Via Licensing Alliance and Access Advance, managing SEPs for H.264/AVC and H.265/HEVC standards [37] - The report highlights the increasing frequency of SEP licensing disputes, which are expanding beyond traditional device manufacturers to include content providers [49]