策略研究 周度报告 如何预判本轮科技股调整时间和空间？ [Table_RptDate] 报告日期： 2025-03-02 [Table_Author] 分析师：郑小霞 执业证书号：S0010520080007 电话：13391921291 邮箱：zhengxx@hazq.com 分析师：刘超 执业证书号：S0010520090001 电话：13269985073 邮箱：liuchao@hazq.com 分析师：张运智 执业证书号：S0010523070001 电话：13699270398 邮箱：zhangyz@hazq.com 分析师：任思雨 执业证书号：S0010523070003 电话：18501373409 邮箱：rensy@hazq.com 相关报告 1.策略月报《静水流深》2025-02-23 主要观点 [Table_Summary] ⚫ 美国加征关税风险反复对全球资本市场形成短期扰动，市场对"两 会"政策预期回归现实，政府工作报告总体定调预计难超预期，市 场进入阶段性高位震荡行情。配置上，3 月重回轮动，科技进入调 整期，3 月关注高胜率强季节性基建优势品种（月中前），有政策 催化的医药、汽车、家 ...

[Table_IndNa农me林Rpt牧Typ渔dee] 行业周报 补栏积极性持续疲弱，二育积极性再升 [行Ta业bl评e_级In：dR增an持k] 报告日期： 2025-3-1 [分Ta析bl师e_：Au王th莺or] 执业证书号：S0010520070003 [相Ta关bl报e_告Report] 比下降，白羽祖代更新量仅 1 万套 2025-2-22 继续疲弱，美欧高致病性禽流感频发 2025-2-8 主要观点： _S补栏积极性持续疲弱，二育积极性再升 行业[T指abl数e_与Cha沪rt]深 300 走势比较 邮箱：wangying@hazq.com 1.华安农业周报：1 月能繁母猪存栏环 2.华安农业周报：1 月生猪补栏积极性 ①本周生猪价格跌 1%至 14.57 元/公斤。本周六，全国生猪价格 14.57 元/公斤，周环比下跌 1%。涌益咨询（2.21-2.27）：全国 90 公斤内 生猪出栏占比 4.22%，维持低位；50 公斤二元母猪价格 1634 元/头， 周环比下降 0.4%；规模场 15 公斤仔猪出栏价 560 元/头，周环比下 跌 5.7%；②二育积极性再升。涌益咨询（2.21-2.27 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant decline on February 28, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 1.98% and the ChiNext Index falling by 3.82%. The total trading volume for the A-share market was 1.91 trillion, a slight decrease of 0.13 trillion compared to the previous day. All sectors, except for food and beverage, saw declines, particularly the previously strong AI and robotics sectors, which led the downturn with declines of 5.36% in computers, 5.08% in communications, 4.84% in electronics, 4.63% in media, and 4.3% in machinery equipment [2][3]. Key Insights - The recent market drop is attributed to several factors: the ongoing decline in U.S. stock markets, renewed tariff threats from the U.S. against China, and a return to rational expectations regarding policies ahead of the National People's Congress (NPC). The U.S. stock market has seen significant declines over the past six trading days, with the Nasdaq down 7.54%, the S&P 500 down 4.6%, and the Dow down 3.11%. This has created a risk-averse environment globally, affecting markets including Hong Kong and Japan [2][3]. - The current market phase is characterized as a high-level volatility and oscillation rather than a sustained downturn. The report suggests that while there is no significant downward risk, the market lacks upward momentum. The expectations for macroeconomic policies from the NPC are likely to align with previous central economic work meetings, indicating no major surprises [3][6]. Sector Rotation and Opportunities - The growth technology sector's current phase appears to be concluding, with opportunities shifting back to sector rotation. The report identifies three main lines of opportunity for March: 1. Infrastructure-related sectors benefiting from strong seasonal effects, particularly in engineering consulting, environmental equipment, and non-metallic materials, supported by NPC policy expectations [6]. 2. Sectors with policy catalysts, such as pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and home appliances, which may see a phase of valuation recovery due to new policies and previous stagnation [7]. 3. The banking and insurance sectors, which may offer value in a high-volatility market, supported by measures to encourage long-term capital inflows [7]. - The report emphasizes that the growth technology sector has reached a historical upper limit in terms of price and valuation, with multiple instances of significant declines indicating increased market divergence. A typical correction following such a phase could exceed 20% [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's Q4 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 12.7 billion yuan (yoy +23.3%), operating profit of 2.3 billion yuan (margin of 18.1%), and Non-GAAP net profit of 3 billion yuan (yoy +14%) [4][5] - The company's international business continues to grow rapidly, driven by favorable visa policies, with outbound hotel and flight bookings increasing over 20% compared to the same period in 2019 [5] - The company has announced a new capital return plan, including a share repurchase program of up to 400 million USD and a cash dividend of approximately 200 million USD [6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4, the revenue breakdown by business segment includes: - Accommodation booking revenue of 5.2 billion yuan (yoy +32.7%) - Transportation ticketing revenue of 4.8 billion yuan (yoy +16.4%) - Vacation business revenue of 870 million yuan (yoy +23.6%) - Business travel management revenue of 700 million yuan (yoy +10.7%) - Other business revenue of 1.2 billion yuan (yoy +24.9%) [4] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 61.2 billion yuan, 68.5 billion yuan, and 76.7 billion yuan respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of +15%, +12%, and +12% [7] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same years are 18.6 billion yuan, 21.8 billion yuan, and 24.8 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +3%, +17%, and +14% [7] Market Position and Trends - The company is experiencing strong recovery in travel demand, with cross-border flight recovery rates reaching 80% of 2019 levels, and European seat recovery rates at 96% [5] - The company anticipates continued growth in international travel demand due to the further opening of visa policies and ongoing recovery of international capacity [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's Q4 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 12.7 billion yuan (up 23.3% year-over-year), operating profit at 2.3 billion yuan (margin of 18.1%), and Non-GAAP net profit at 3 billion yuan (up 14% year-over-year) [4][5] - The growth in international travel demand, driven by visa-free policies, has significantly boosted the company's performance, with outbound hotel and flight bookings increasing over 20% compared to the same period in 2019 [5] - The company has announced a new capital return plan, including a share repurchase program of up to 400 million USD and a cash dividend totaling approximately 200 million USD [6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4, the revenue breakdown by business segment includes: - Accommodation booking revenue of 5.2 billion yuan (up 32.7% year-over-year) - Transportation ticketing revenue of 4.8 billion yuan (up 16.4% year-over-year) - Vacation package revenue of 870 million yuan (up 23.6% year-over-year) - Business travel management revenue of 700 million yuan (up 10.7% year-over-year) - Other business revenue of 1.2 billion yuan (up 24.9% year-over-year) [4] - The company expects revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 61.24 billion yuan, 68.53 billion yuan, and 76.68 billion yuan respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 15%, 12%, and 12% [7] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same years are 18.64 billion yuan, 21.76 billion yuan, and 24.78 billion yuan, with year-over-year growth rates of 3%, 17%, and 14% [7] Market Position and Outlook - The company is experiencing a strong recovery in travel demand, with cross-border flight recovery rates reaching 80% of 2019 levels, and European flight capacity recovery at 96% [5] - The anticipated continued growth in international travel demand is expected to further drive the company's performance in the coming years [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant revenue increase, with Q4 2024 revenue expected to be 4.92 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 65.9%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 509 million yuan, down 26.3% year-on-year [8][10] - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation focusing on market share, with expectations of increased sales in both domestic and international markets [7][10] Revenue Analysis - Domestic sales are expected to grow over 100% in Q4 compared to Q3, while international sales are projected to grow over 30% [7][8] - The online sales performance for Q4 is anticipated to show significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 130% in sales volume for key products [7][8] Profit Analysis - The net profit margin is expected to decline in Q4, with Q4 net profit margins projected at 10.34%, down 13 percentage points year-on-year [8][10] - The company’s gross profit margin is affected by pricing strategies, with a projected gross margin of 52.3% for 2024 [10][12] Financial Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 11.93 billion yuan, 14.47 billion yuan, and 16.64 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 37.8%, 21.3%, and 15.1% [10][12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1.98 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight decline of 3.4% year-on-year [10][12] Market Expansion - The company is expected to enhance its direct sales in Europe and expand its presence in the U.S. and emerging markets [9][10] - The introduction of high-end products is anticipated to raise the price ceiling, contributing to future revenue growth [9][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the potential of AI empowerment to enhance both customer experience and operational efficiency. Meituan's strategic upgrade to "Retail + Technology" aims to integrate technological capabilities deeply into local life services and retail businesses, focusing on areas such as instant retail, smart supply chains, and unmanned delivery [4][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2023, Meituan's revenue is projected at 276,563 million, with a year-on-year growth of 26%. The adjusted net profit is expected to be 23,253 million, reflecting a significant increase of 730% [13] - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 336,699 million, 385,681 million, and 435,161 million respectively, with growth rates of 22%, 15%, and 13% [10] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same years are 42,305 million, 52,213 million, and 70,790 million, with growth rates of 82%, 23%, and 36% [10] Business Strategy - Meituan has accelerated its layout in B-end SaaS since 2016, providing comprehensive solutions for merchants in management, marketing, and supply chain [5] - The company is focusing on AI's role in enhancing operational efficiency in the restaurant SaaS sector, drawing parallels with successful overseas examples [5][6] - The report highlights Meituan's investment in robotics and automation technologies, with over 30 investments in related companies since 2021 [9] Market Positioning - Meituan's strategic focus on AI and technology integration is expected to create a competitive edge in the retail sector, particularly in enhancing customer experience through personalized services and operational efficiencies [7][10] - The report notes the significant advancements in Meituan's unmanned delivery capabilities, including the development of autonomous driving technology and drone delivery services [8][9] Future Outlook - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook on Meituan's operational and organizational capabilities, emphasizing the importance of its "extreme execution" strategy in the retail sector [10] - The anticipated acceleration of generative AI commercialization and macroeconomic improvements are expected to positively impact Meituan's business performance [6][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the potential of AI empowerment to enhance both customer experience and operational efficiency. Meituan's strategic upgrade to "Retail + Technology" aims to integrate technological capabilities deeply into local life services and retail businesses, focusing on instant retail, smart supply chains, and unmanned delivery [4][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2023, Meituan's revenue is projected at 276,563 million, with a year-on-year growth of 26%. The adjusted net profit is expected to be 23,253 million, reflecting a significant increase of 730% [13] - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 336,699 million, 385,681 million, and 435,161 million respectively, with growth rates of 22%, 15%, and 13% [10][13] - Adjusted net profit predictions for the same years are 42,305 million, 52,213 million, and 70,790 million, with growth rates of 82%, 23%, and 36% [10][13] Business Strategy - Meituan has accelerated its layout in B-end SaaS since 2016, providing comprehensive solutions for merchants in management, marketing, and supply chain [5] - The company is focusing on AI's role in enhancing operational efficiency in the restaurant SaaS sector, drawing parallels with successful overseas examples [5][6] - Meituan's "QianNiuHua" system offers a full-process digital solution for local retailers, aiming to reduce costs and improve efficiency [6] Technological Advancements - The report highlights Meituan's commitment to technology innovation, particularly in unmanned delivery and AI applications, which are expected to significantly enhance operational efficiency [7][9] - The company has made substantial investments in robotics and automation technologies, with over 30 investments in related companies since 2021 [9] Market Position - Meituan's core local business segment generates 57% of its revenue from commission and delivery marketing services, indicating a strong market presence [9] - The report suggests that AI can significantly improve advertising efficiency, as evidenced by the performance of major overseas companies [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is a pioneer in the pet food industry, focusing on the pet food sector with a significant global presence, including 22 modern high-end pet food production bases and a national R&D center, with products sold in 85 countries and regions [4][15] - The company's revenue has grown from 510 million yuan in 2013 to 3.75 billion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.1% [4] - For 2024, the company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 360-400 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 54.5%-71.55% [22] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company was established in 1998 and initially focused on exporting pet snacks, now offering a comprehensive product line including dry food, wet food, and treats [15] - The company has developed a differentiated brand matrix centered around three core brands: "Wanpy," "ZEAL," and "TOPTREES" [15] 2. Overseas Market Growth - The overseas market remains a major source of revenue and profit, with overseas income growing from 1.157 billion yuan in 2018 to 2.661 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 18.1% [5][41] - The company has established six overseas factories and is expanding its production capacity in the U.S. to meet local demand and enhance profitability [5][42] 3. Domestic Market Development - The domestic pet market is thriving, with a projected consumption scale exceeding 300 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 7.5% year-on-year [6][49] - The company has optimized its self-owned brand strategy, leading to significant improvements in profitability and market presence [6][64] 4. Financial Forecasts - The company anticipates main business revenues of 4.413 billion yuan, 5.162 billion yuan, and 6.128 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 373 million yuan, 421 million yuan, and 551 million yuan [7][10] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are projected to be 1.27 yuan, 1.43 yuan, and 1.87 yuan [7][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 68.74 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.35%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.59 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.96% year-on-year. However, the net profit excluding non-recurring items decreased by 10.2% to 4.61 billion yuan [4][5] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 17.49 billion yuan, which is a 9.2% decline year-on-year but a 4.8% increase quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for the quarter was 1.69 billion yuan, up 2.0% year-on-year and 60.4% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The company is experiencing growth in emerging markets, with a smartphone shipment of approximately 107 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, and a market share of 8.6%, up 0.4 percentage points [6] - The company has resolved patent issues with Qualcomm, which is expected to facilitate smoother market expansion [7] - The company is optimistic about AI applications driving market growth, as the smartphone market transitions to a replacement cycle influenced by new AI capabilities [8] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company expects revenues of 68.74 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.4% projected for 2025 and 8.6% for 2026. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 6.38 billion yuan in 2025 and 7.40 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 14.1% and 16.0% respectively [9][11] - The gross margin is expected to be 22.3% in 2024, slightly decreasing to 22.6% by 2026. The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline from 24.8% in 2024 to 20.4% in 2026 [11]